By Tim Dierkes | at
Jerry Crasnick has some good info for ESPN: the Blue Jays are "closing in on a deal" with designated hitter Frank Thomas. It seems that a two-year deal is in the works.
As Thomas’s excellent comeback season wound down, it seemed apparent that he would leave the A’s. If Gary Sheffield commands a two-year, $28MM extension, Thomas should be good for two years and at least $20MM.
The Blue Jays have a ton of needs, but plenty of free cash.
By Tim Dierkes | at
After wrongly leaving Justin Speier off my Top 50 Free Agents list, I felt the need to make it up to him by giving him his very own post.
Speier was drafted by the Cubs back in ’95, buried in the 55th round. He was a reliever from Day 1. The Cubs made a pretty poor trade for bullpen help at the trading deadline in ’98, sending Speier, Kevin Orie, and Todd Noel to the Marlins for Felix Heredia.
Things didn’t go well for him in Florida, leading to a trade to Atlanta for a no-namer. Speier was placed on waivers at year’s end and the Indians claimed him. He pitched well for the Tribe in 2000 but was sent to the Mets for a no-namer the next year. The Mets designated him for assignment after ten days, but Speier was out of options and didn’t make it through waivers. He became a Rockie.
After two solid seasons in Colorado (including some closer duty), the Blue Jays rescued him in the winter of ’03 in the Joe Kennedy/Mark Hendrickson trade. Speier got some saves in ’04 under Carlos Tosca, though a sore elbow sidelined him in May.
He was to begin ’05 as the Jays’ closer, but Miguel Batista got the gig instead. Ligament damage in the middle finger of his pitching hand popped up in September to end a fine season (Speier allowed fewer than one baserunner per inning).
The finger injury recurred in spring of 2006, but he was fine to start the season as B.J. Ryan’s setup man. Forearm issues came about this August, causing Speier to post his smallest inning total in a long time.
Speier has solid command, with a career K/BB of 2.5. Scouting report from Keith Law:
"Speier is a three-pitch reliever with good command of all three. He has a low-90s fastball with a little run but no sink; a tight slider with good tilt; and a splitter that he has improved to the point that it’s a very effective weapon against left-handed hitters. When he’s on, he keeps everything at or just above hitters’ knees, garnering strikes and some bad swings. His fastball is flat, however, and he’ll give up a lot of home runs if he has to pitch in the upper half of the zone."
According to ESPN, Speier throws about 64% fastballs, 29% sliders, and 7% other stuff.
I could see Speier commanding a deal similar to Kyle Farnsworth’s – three years, $17MM with incentives and a signing bonus. The closer market is terrible, and Speier is one of the better choices.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Today let’s take a closer look at free agent southpaw Ted Lilly.
Lilly made $4MM this year, failing to hit any of his innings pitched incentives. He’ll turn 31 in January and should be able to snag a three-year contract without a problem. 2006 was not his best season despite the career high 15 wins; Lilly’s 2004 effort was better and included an All-Star appearance. He’s said publicly that he’d like to return to the Bay Area to play with the Giants or again with the A’s. The Jays have some interest in retaining him at the right price.
Performance-wise you’re getting a strikeout pitcher who’s tough to hit and battle-tested in the AL East. He’s a flyball pitcher and is prone to worse than average HRs allowed. His control’s a problem too, as Lilly walks about four batters per nine innings. After his fastball, Lilly mixes in an equal number of curves, sliders, and changeups. He’s tougher on lefties but not terribly so.
Some past history on Theodore Roosevelt Lilly:
1998:
July: Traded from Dodgers to Expos in deadline deal for Mark Grudzielanek and Carlos Perez.
Tossed 213.2 innings, including winter ball.
1999:
March: Couldn’t quite crack the Expo rotation.
May: Called up for a few weeks.
June/July: MRI on left shoulder shows no significant damage.
September: Called up again.
October: Shoulder surgery.
2000:
March: Traded to Yanks along with Jake Westbrook in Hideki Irabu deal.
Pitched mostly at Triple A as a 24 year-old.
2001:
April: Called up, whiffs 10 Red Sox. Remains in rotation.
August: Suspended for nailing Scott Spiezio with a pitch. Sent back to minors.
September: Called up, using his last option.
2002:
April: Makes team as a reliever/spot starter. Remains in rotation after injuries to starters.
Summer: Shuttles between starting and relief with Pettitte and El Duque injuries.
July: Traded to A’s in 3-team deal involving Jeff Weaver and Carlos Pena. Enters Oakland rotation. Hits DL later that month with inflamed left shoulder.
September: Returns from DL/rehab.
2003:
March: Reworks mechanics to take strain off shoulder.
July: With Lilly struggling in rotation, a trade rumor involving Kelvim Escobar surfaces. He stays put.
September: Misses start with back spasms.
November: Traded to Toronto for Bobby Kielty.
2004:
January: Signs two-year deal.
February: Reports to camp with sore wrist but remains healthy thereafter.
2005:
February: Misses time with left shoulder tendinitis.
April: Begins season on DL but makes April starts.
May: Pitching coach Brad Arnsberg discusses Lilly’s perceived lack of intensity.
July: Biceps tendinitis sends him to the DL again.
September: Comes off DL. Experiences shoulder blade discomfort.
2006:
January: Signs one-year, $4MM deal.
March: Makes change in follow-through. Later in month, experiences minor right shoulder injury.
April: Makes first start despite back/shoulder issues.
June: Leaves start with shoulder tightness.
August: Misses start with stiff neck. Later in month, has heated argument with manager John Gibbons after being pulled from awful start. Gibbons gets bloody nose.
October: Lilly files for free agency.
Well, that injury history definitely rules out Baltimore. Whoever signs Lilly is really going to have to take a long look at that left shoulder; he’s yet to throw 200 innings in the Majors.
By Tim Dierkes | at
It’s a common refrain among impending free agents: "I’ll give my current team every chance to re-sign me before hitting the open market." Recently, it’s been Vernon Wells and Gil Meche singing that particular tune.
Here’s the thing about Wells: he’s not an impending free agent. He’ll be a free agent after 2007; he’ll earn $5.6MM next year. The standard superstar practice is to start the contract negotiations a year early. Almost as if the Blue Jays owe Wells something because he’s playing at a below-market price in 2007. Which is silly, because it was the Jays taking on the risk of giving Wells a five-year, $14.7MM contract after one full season in the bigs.
Then there’s Gil Meche, whose career year should earn him the big bucks. Among free agent starters, Meche has had the 15th best overall season so far according to Baseball Prospectus. He owns the 7th best strikeout rate, 9th best ERA, and 13th best WHIP. It’s the solid K rate and the fact that he just turned 28 that places Meche among the cream of the free agent starter crop. The downside is that he’s yet to pitch 200 innings in a season.
In case you were curious, here are the top fifteen free agent starters ranked by 2006 VORP:
1. Jason Schmidt
2. Barry Zito
3. Mike Mussina
4. Roger Clemens
5. Tom Glavine
6. Andy Pettitte
7. Miguel Batista
8. Jamie Moyer
9. Vicente Padilla
10. Greg Maddux
11. Woody Williams
12. Ted Lilly
13. Brad Radke
14. Jeff Suppan
15. Gil Meche
By Tim Dierkes | at
Word comes today from the New York Post that free agent infielder Julio Lugo grew up a Mets fan and will "definitely" consider the club if they’re interested. He’s open to second base or shortstop for his new team.
Last year, Lugo’s age 29 season, looked like a career year for the shortstop. He hit .295/.362/.403 and was the fifth best shortstop in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus. This season, in an injury-shortened 72 games with the Devil Rays, Lugo hit .308/.373/.498. All three marks are career bests.
At the trading deadline, the Dodgers sent promising young prosect Joel Guzman to the Devil Rays for Lugo. Lugo’s been a terrible hitter for L.A. while playing 2B, 3B, and even a little OF. It was a curious trade for Los Angeles.
As the easy choice for the best shortstop on the market, Lugo should command upwards of four years and $40MM. It would be surprising to see the Mets pay that kind of money for a second baseman, so Lugo would probably have to give a hometown discount to become a Met. Several teams are going to entertain the possibility of Lugo as their next shortstop. Possibilities include the Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Reds. The smart money is on the Red Sox or Jays.
There was some ugliness involving Lugo and his wife in 2003. The Astros instantly demoted Lugo after he reportedly assaulted his wife. He was later found innocent after Mabely Lugo changed her story.
By Tim Dierkes | at
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Blue Jays plan to increase player payroll "perhaps to $100 million or beyond." How should they spend their money to best position themselves for 2007?
Here are J.P. Ricciardi’s contract obligations:
C –
C – Jason Phillips – $0.55MM
1B – Lyle Overbay – $3MM
2B – Aaron Hill – $0.4MM
SS – John McDonald – $0.5MM
3B – Troy Glaus – $10.75MM
IF – John McDonald – $0.5MM
LF – Reed Johnson – $2MM
CF – Vernon Wells – $5.6MM
RF – Alex Rios – $0.4MM
OF – Adam Lind – $0.38MM
SP – Roy Halladay – $12.8MM
SP – A.J. Burnett – $12MM
SP – Gustavo Chacin – 0.4MM
SP –
SP – Shaun Marcum/Casey Janssen – $0.38MM
RP – B.J. Ryan – $5MM
RP – Jeremy Accardo – $0.4MM
RP – Jason Frasor – $0.4MM
RP – Scott Downs – $0.705MM
RP – Josh Towers – $2.9MM
RP – Brandon League – $0.38MM
RP – Francisco Rosario – $0.38MM
Toronto has roughly $67MM locked up after raises. At the least, the Blue Jays need a catcher, shortstop, DH, and starting pitcher. They might have $30-35MM to play with for ’07. The Jays entered 2006 with a $71.9MM payroll.
For a team with money, Julio Lugo seems like the obvious choice at short. Might require $10MM annually. There’s not much else in the free agent market, unless you fancy Craig Counsell, Rich Aurilia, or Alex Gonzalez. The Jays could try to trade for Miguel Tejada, if they want to part with Lind and others.
As far as backstops go, it would probably be best to just re-sign Gregg Zaun. The alternatives are not much better.
Of course, there are plenty of starters available. The Blue Jays have the cash, so they might as well sign a third ace to complement Halladay and Burnett. I hear some guys named Zito and Schmidt could command big bucks. If Ted Lilly will come back at a halfway decent price, Toronto should take it. However, retaining Lilly shouldn’t be an excuse not to add a top-notch starter. Problem is, Zito and Schmidt really are the only two aces out there, and there are more than two teams in contention. The Blue Jays may end up with a Gil Meche even after making one of them a huge offer.
At least one player should be added at LF/DH. It makes sense to go for one big name and then give to other spot to Lind. Some options include Frank Thomas, Barry Bonds, Moises Alou, Carlos Lee, and Alfonso Soriano.
With that amount of money to play with, the Blue Jays can become a serious force in 2007. Spending this cash is a smart move if it can propel them into the playoffs. Should be an exciting AL East in 2007.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Former Blue Jays assistant GM Keith Law stirred the pot a few days ago in his blog, mentioning that:
"Vernon Wells has told Blue Jays’ management that he has no intention of signing a contract extension to stay in Toronto."
J.P. Ricciardi responded by calling Law an idiot, and Wells himself said the conversation was fabricated. While the drama here is amusing, let’s take a look at some suitors for Wells if Toronto does make a deal this winter. It’s potentially a long list.
Red Sox – They can afford a long-term extension for Wells, and did shop Coco Crisp this July. Wells is a top five defensive CF, and Crisp doesn’t even enter the conversation. And I didn’t even mention the offensive difference. The obvious problem: both of these teams are trying to win the AL East in 2007. That makes a trade here highly unlikely.
White Sox – They’ve shown a strong commitment to Brian Anderson despite a very rough start. Anderson has at least shown signs of being a league average offensive CF over the last two months, and his defense has drawn praise. Kenny Williams is certainly capable of an unexpected splash, but there’s not a big need here for Wells.
Angels – Let’s hope the Halos realize next year that Garret Anderson is no longer a starting left fielder. Juan Rivera has already stepped up to fill his shoes, and Wells could be added to play center. That leaves Chones Figgins bouncing around again, but does his .698 OPS really need to play every day?
A’s – The A’s are committed to Mark Kotsay through 2008, though Kotsay’s performance has been less than inspiring this season. There’s certainly a chance Billy Beane goes after Wells; the Oakland lineup has been missing a player like that.
Mariners – Adam Jones isn’t ready for full-time duty this year, but he’s only 21. Jeremy Reed will still be with the club next year to help out. The Mariners should probably focus on starting pitching this winter.
Rangers – As has been speculated, the Rangers make an excellent fit for Wells. Gary Matthews Jr. is on the wrong side of 30 and an impending free agent, so Texas is in search of a long-term center field solution. Do they have the cash to lock up both Wells and Carlos Lee? Probably not, but Lee is not guaranteed to stay in Texas this winter. I think if he signs elsewhere the Rangers would step up their pursuit of Wells.
Astros – Houston could try some combo of Willy Taveras, Jason Lane, and Chris Burke out in center next season. That could work, but with money to burn Tim Purpura is expected to bring in some big names. Wells should be at the top of his list.
Cardinals – There’s plenty of debate about whether to exercise Jim Edmonds’s $10MM option for 2007. I think the Cards should do it, but trading for Wells would be even better. I’m not sure how that would make Colby Rasmus feel, but the team could cross that bridge if they come to it. There’s probably room in the budget for one major splash, though it should probably be a pitcher.
Cubs – The unfortunate lack of a Juan Pierre trade this summer may indicate that the Cubs want to keep him around for three, four more years. Bringing in a star like Wells would be exciting for Cubs fans, but the team seems more likely to focus its dollars on Carlos Lee and some starting pitching.
Reds – Only if Junior will finally move over. In Ryan Freel and Chris Denorfia, the Reds already have some workable options for center if that does happen. Wells seems a very long shot for Cincy.
Dodgers – How about an outfield of J.D. Drew, Andre Ethier, and Wells? I can’t see any reason Ned Colletti wouldn’t be involved if Wells is available this winter. They’ve got an opening, the cash, and the talent to make a deal.
Rockies – Now this would be a fun destination. Bring some firepower to the middle of the Colorado order and sparkling outfield defense. There would be a lot of athleticism between Matt Holliday and Wells. It’s not a bad idea if the financials and prospects could be hammered out.
Looks like the major players would be the Texas teams and Dodgers, with the Angels and Red Sox as dark horses. Wells grew up in Arlington, Texas, for what it’s worth.
By Tim Dierkes | at
According to our good friend Ken Rosenthal, Toronto 1B/3B/RF/DH Eric Hinske has cleared waivers and the Red Sox are discussing a trade. Rosenthal mentions that Hinske was pulled from the lineup tonight.
Moving Hinske and his contract makes good sense given the emergence of outfielder/DH Adam Lind. Hinske, who turned 29 this month, will make $5.626MM next year to finish his contract. Hinske has declined over the years since winning the ROY in 2002 by hitting .279/.365/.481 and playing third base. This season, he’s learned how to play right field and has a career high .513 SLG.
As a rookie, Hinske’s numbers were boosted by limited exposure to southpaws. He faced them in about 22% of his plate appearances that year. In 2003-04, the Jays set him loose to face lefties in about 29% of his PAs. He did terribly. He didn’t really do much against righties either during those seasons either. This year and last, they’ve cut him back to face lefties less than 20% of his PAs. Maybe just the prospect of facing southpaws on a regular basis frightens Hinske into performing poorly against all pitchers.
He wouldn’t have that problem in Boston, where he’d form a formidable platoon with Wily Mo Pena. It’d be a fine move by Theo Epstein for this year and ’07, though there are some decent short term options for rightfielders this winter.
UPDATE: According to Gordon Edes, the deal is done pending commissioner approval.
By Tim Dierkes | at
To begin with, this just isn’t true. With the Kearns deal and probably Soriano trade, the 2006 deadline just can’t be classified as a dud. That honor belongs to 2005 for sure. The trading action never matches the buildup, but this year’s still a good one.
Read Ken Rosenthal’s latest. The White Sox are in the Soriano game, the Rangers have interest in Luis Gonzalez, the Braves could add another reliever, Julio Lugo still might become a Blue Jay, and the Brewers look like sellers. In my opinion, some Brewers besides Carlos Lee that could be unloaded: Geoff Jenkins, Corey Koskie, Brady Clark, and Dan Kolb. Koskie will need to recover quickly from his concussion, however.
Still hearing that the Cubs like Willy Taveras, which would definitely fit their m.o. of players who don’t get on base. Phil Rogers also mentions that Seattle’s Rafael Soriano is being asked about. It would be surprising to see the Mariners deal that kind of young talent.
Tons of great rumors coming from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. He’s got a rundown of the Red Sox, all sorts of teams scouting Humberto Sanchez, and more.
Buster Olney mentioned in his blog today that the Astros are among various teams scouting Elmer Dessens. The Astros are also looking at Damaso Marte.
Unfounded rumor department: Could the Dodgers be after Aramis Ramirez? Ramirez has picked a fantastic time to heat up, and L.A. has some top shelf young talent…is there anywhere Julio Lugo could go besides Toronto? How about the Rockies?
By Tim Dierkes | at
Many teams were interested, but Brian Sabean and the Giants prevailed in the Shea Hillenbrand sweepstakes late Friday night. The deal marks Sabean’s first of the year and first ever with J.P. Ricciardi (as far as I can tell).
The average National League first baseman has hit .286/.366/.504 this season, while Hillenbrand is at .301/.342/.480. While he’s a below average fix at first, it sure as hell beats the .714 OPS the Giants have gotten out of the position thus far.
Hillenbrand moves from a ballpark that inflates home runs by about 18% and batting average about 5% for right-handed hitters. His new home has a similar effect on batting average but suppresses right-handed home runs by about 4%.
The pitchers Hillenbrand faced this year with the Blue Jays allowed an aggregate line of .260/.345/.416. Every Giants hitter with more than 200 plate appearances has faced tougher pitching than that. Another interesting fact: Hillenbrand is one of the most likely double play victims in the game.
Defensively, the Fielding Bible rates Hillenbrand as the fourth-worst first baseman in baseball, ahead of Giambi, Delgado, and Sexson. The Giants currently boast the third-best defensive efficiency mark in the NL, however.
The Blue Jays threw in Vinnie Chulk in the deal and received Jeremy Accardo. Baseball Prospectus notes that Accardo "finally made The Show on the basis of a mid-90s fastball, a developing slider, and a filthy cutter that some compare to Mariano Rivera’s bat-sawing Frisbee."
Accardo appears to be an upgrade from Chulk, who is three years older and has mediocre stuff.
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