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Trade Rumor Roundup: 10 Days Left

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Couple of fresh rumors surrounding the Padres’ third base vacancy, and I’m proud to say that MLBTradeRumors was able to deduce these in advance.  A week ago I compiled a spreadsheet of Kevin Towers’ trading history since 2001, nerd that I am.  From that we learned that Towers loves working with the Red Sox and also Bill Bavasi.  That he would consider Adrian Beltre and Mike Lowell for his vacancy followed logically.  Today, the Beltre rumor comes courtesy of Ken Rosenthal and Buster Olney threw down the Lowell rumor.  If those two big dogs fall through, Towers could pursue previous acquisitions Joe Randa or Rich Aurilia.

Plenty of speculation, newspaper articles, and quotes involving Julio Lugo heading to Toronto.  Not that this would be a bad move, but this club has a clear need for pitching.  Ricciardi only has so many bullets to fire as far as prospects and dollars.

ESPN’s Stark Market tells us that the Mets may have soured a bit on Lastings Milledge and could consider shipping him to Philadelphia for Bobby Abreu.  Meanwhile, Baseball Prospectus’s Jay Jaffe reminds us that Milledge’s most comparable player is Ruben Mateo, and recommends the deal for New York.

Wacky rumor involving A-Rod to the Phils made the message board rounds yesterday afternoon, but I think it’s safe to say there’s nothing to this one.  Mark Healey agrees.  The best part is that this one actually got all the way to A-Rod himself, who said he’d veto a deal to Philly.  Check out that Gotham Baseball column from Healey for some fresh rumorage.      

I was just checking my referrers, seeing where people are coming from when they land here at MLBTradeRumors.com.  A lot of the traffic comes from search engine queries.  Turns out someone recently found this site by Googling: "what does dayn perry have against royce clayton."  Now that’s a damn good question.

Shea Hillenbrand Designated

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According to a Blue Jays source of mine, this is how the Shea Hillenbrand designation went down:

"It seems Hillenbrand and a few (word is two) of his teammates were being
mischievious during yesterday’s workout. Gibbons stormed in the clubhouse
like an old den-mother and demanded the pranksters reveal themselves.

Just Hillenbrand stepped forward.

Gibbons blew a gasket. Everyone’s face hung open.

Gibb told Hill to take a shower and leave (on his first day back from adopting
a kid).

As the team left for the field, Hill still suited-up and paced in the
clubhouse, not knowing what to do.

Until an in-house courier hand delivered his walking papers.

He then left."

Alright, this is Tim talking again.  It seems that Hillenbrand’s mischief involved writing "This is a sinking ship" on a chalkboard in the clubhouse.  Good times.

The Padres, Twins, Rangers, and Angels have been connected to Hillenbrand at one time or another.  While the Pads are the concensus favorite, keep in mind that Kevin Towers and J.P. Ricciardi have never completed a trade with one another before.  (As far as I can tell).  But hey, there’s a first time for everything.

Trade Rumor Roundup: 11 Days Left

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Let’s see what we’ve got churning in the rumor mill this morning.

Shea Hillenbrand, a player well-liked by his teammates, was designated for assignment last night.  Kind of reminds me of the Jose Guillen situation a couple of years ago.  Despite the unpleasantness, Bill Stoneman still managed to turn Guillen into Juan Rivera and Maicer Izturis.  Let’s see how J.P Ricciardi does now that manager John Gibbons has forced him into this situation.  As we told you a couple of days ago, Gibbons may follow Hillenbrand out the door.  More on this situation in a bit.   

A Reds message board rumor has Ian Kinsler going to Cincy and Todd Coffey heading to Texas, among some other components.  I don’t know if this has any credence to it, just throwing it out there.  Doesn’t seem logical to me. 

The Jeff Keppinger for Ruben Gotay deal is official.  Score one for Omar Minaya.  In other Royals news, the Royals Authority advises fans not to panic about Luke Hochevar.

We saw what the Tigers would have to give up for Alfonso Soriano.  Apparently, to get Bobby Abreu they’d have to surrender Marcus Thames, Zach Miner, and a lot of money.  I’ll take option A.

Looking for an aging slugger who can maybe still hit lefties?  Sammy Sosa is again making noise about playing again.  This is not good for baseball.

Halos Heaven, a blog I know to have good sources, reports that the Orioles want the Angels to have Miguel Tejada.  Orlando Cabrera and J.C. Romero could be part of a package.

Word on the street is that Baseball Prospectus injury analyst Will Carroll is in talks with ESPN about a possible job.

A TV program encouraging fans to come and boo Dusty Baker?  C’mon, don’t kick a man when he’s down. 

RotoAuthority looks for the game’s true .300 hitters.

Tips for better living.

Blue Jays Trade Rumors

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There’s no doubt that the Blue Jays will need to address their pitching staff if they want to make the playoffs, as I detailed in this post.  Today I’ve got a source giving us the latest buzz coming out of Toronto.

The Jays have approximately $2-4 million in the budget to compensate their deadline acquisitions.  J.P. Ricciardi knows he’ll need more salary room than that, so look for Shea Hillenbrand ($5.8MM) or Eric Hinske ($4.3MM) to change addresses before the deadline.  Hillenbrand has an .821 OPS, pretty much average for a corner infielder.  Hinske stands at .887 thanks to a strong walk rate and a career high slugging percentage.  Hinske has faced righties 80% of the time this year, so that’s given his stats a boost.

Gregg Zaun, in calling out his teammates’ lack of leadership, may have punched his ticket out of town.  Zaun’s .908 OPS is 7th among catchers with at least 125 ABs.  He makes a million bucks this year, so sending him to a team like the Rockies could clear a little payroll.

When manager John Gibbons brought in Brandon League a couple days ago to protect Roy Halladay’s two-run lead, League was being showcased for a trade.  Two home runs later the game was tied and League’s value went down. 

Poor decision-making and several other factors may lead to Gibbons’s replacement this winter.  Gibbons’s support of George W. Bush and his team’s perceived lack of intensity are issues.  Bench coach Ernie Whitt has been mentioned as the likely replacement.

Globe and Mail: Jays After Peralta?

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You owe me for this.  I got an email about a sweet Jhonny Peralta trade rumor in Toronto’s Globe and Mail newspaper.  I found the article and got ready for some juicy rumormongering.  Unfortunately, they only gave me a little taste and made me register (for free).  OK, whatever.  But then, to read this particular article, I was forced to submit credit card information for a free 14 day-trial.  Can someone please remind me to cancel this before July 30th?  Thanks.

Anyway, here’s what Jeff Blair had to say on this topic:

"A contending team could do some serious one-stop shopping by calling Indians GM Mark Shapiro. There was talk in Pittsburgh that the Blue Jays may make a play for shortstop Jhonny Peralta."

The lack of detail was disappointing.  But after going through all that effort to read this I figured I should post something about Peralta and the Blue Jays. 

Peralta, 24, has definitely struggled in his second full season with the Tribe.  He played 141 games last year with a .366 OBP and .520 SLG.  He drew a walk in more than 10% of his plate appearances and put the bat on the ball 75% of the time.  Those last two marks typically play out to a .250 batting average instead of last year’s .292, so we might have seen this coming.

This year Peralta has a .330 OBP.  He’s walked 10% of the time again and has a similar 74% contact rate.  The .256 AVG/.330 OBP are no fluke.  His SLG dropping all the way to .406 was not anticipated, however. Baseball Prospectus called for him to slug .464 this year after a .520 mark last season.  Not sure how to explain the power outage.  Peralta is slugging .610 in 41 July ABs, for what that’s worth.

Mark Shapiro signed Peralta to the standard Indians arbitration buyout deal last March.  It’s for five years and $13MM; the deal finishes with a $7MM club option for 2011.  Any way you shake it, Peralta will be a bargain for years to come (as many young players are). 

The average AL shortstop is hitting .283/.339/.416 this season, very similar to Peralta’s output this year.  So he’ll be at least tolerable with the stick and can probably surpass that.  How about defense?

Peralta’s range doesn’t seem to impress the fine gentlemen of The Fielding Bible.  He’s below average on plays to his left, and even worse going to his right.  On the other hand, they describe his arm as "accurate" and note that he was the best in baseball at turning double plays in 2005.

All in all Peralta should be a 5-6 win player locked up cheap for years to come.  Should the Blue Jays make every effort to acquire him?

Probably not.  Jays’ shortstops are hitting .306/.359/.438 this year, comfortably above average. The Jays recently moved Russ Adams to second base, where his below average arm is better suited.  Right now they’ve got Aaron Hill at short.  The Blue Jays are 4.5 games out of first in the AL East.  The team leads the league in OPS and SLG, so the offense doesn’t seem to be a problem.  They’re 6th out of 14 in defensive efficiency, but Peralta wouldn’t really help that. 

It’s pitching that’s held the Blue Jays back thus far.  Both the bullpen and the starters are ranked 10th in the league in ERA.  The injury woes of Gustavo Chacin have really hurt, as he was the perfect #3 starter between A.J. Burnett and Ted Lilly.  Chacin’s sprained elbow may still need Tommy John, but otherwise he could return in August.  Given the team’s expenditures in the offseason, going the extra mile to get that starter makes sense.

It appears the Jays can only take on another $3MM in salary this year, however.  John Smoltz has been mentioned, and he is owed less than $4MM for the rest of the season.  The opportunity to win the division exists if Toronto somehow acquires a solid rental starter and a top-notch reliever in the Tom Gordon mold.  Getting both pieces seems unlikely given the team’s 25th-ranked farm system.   

Lining Up For Shealy

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It might be helpful to summarize all the Ryan Shealy suitors from the last few months, just so we can keep them straight.  These are all from various newspapers. 

The most recent one is that the Red Sox offered 23 year-old southpaw starter Abe Alvarez.  Alvarez posted a 4.85 ERA but a solid 1.20 WHIP in Triple A last year. This season, he’s at 4.46 with a 1.36 WHIP.  He’s had little opportunity to prove himself in Boston.  Random bio: Alvarez likes to wear his hat crooked, is legally blind in one eye, and is known for pinpoint control.  Actually, those first two facts aren’t so random – Alvarez wears his hat that way to balance the lighting for that eye.  Sounds like a good kid who has overcome quite a bit of adversity, but the Rockies are looking for more.

Then there’s the Orioles.  Baltimore has little in the way of first basemen waiting in the wings, but they balked at the Rockies’ request for Hayden Penn.  It’s said the team would prefer to deal Javy Lopez, but they’ve been trying to do that for ages.  The Rockies could use a decent catcher for their unlikely pennant run, and Lopez is hitting .282/.329/.437 this season at 35.  That’s not particularly young for a backstop, and Lopez has only caught 12 games this season out of 56 played.  He’d make an interesting addition to a lot of teams, but at $8.5MM this will probably just be a salary dump. The O’s will have to surrender a young player to get Shealy.  Adam Loewen seems like too high a price, but I am not an expert in the Orioles’ farm system. 

It’s been noted that the Blue Jays are interested, so a third AL East team is in the mix.  The Jays already have Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Hinske clogging up the DH spot, so something would have to give before they acquired Shealy.  Toronto doesn’t have much in the way of Triple A starters who could be swapped with the Rox.

The Cubs poked around in May with their first base vacancy (albeit two weeks later than they should have).  Recent word is that Cubs offered reliever David Aardsma.  Besides having the first name in the baseball encyclopedia, Aardsma has 20 solid Triple A innings to his credit.  He hasn’t shown much in the Majors this season.  The persistent walk problem remains.  Assuming Shealy was healthy enough to play left field, the Cubs should step up their offer to at least Rich Hill.

One of the papers mentioned that the Indians inquired within the last year, but there’s no longer a fit.  Ryan Garko is not setting the world afire at Buffalo, nor is Ryan Mulhern at Double A.  Michael Aubrey has been on the DL with a knee injury since late May.  So I’m thinking the Indians would still like to acquire Shealy, but maybe the Rockies were asking for too much.

Shealy is doing well in Colorado Springs (though of course in a hitters’ environment).  He’s at .284/.357/.593 after 43 games.

Rox, Jays Interested In D-Train?

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We haven’t mentioned Canada’s Marty York in a good two months. Back in March, York mentioned that the Blue Jays were close to acquiring Craig Wilson and that A.J. Burnett would miss all of April.  Wilson’s a Pirate and Burnett made two starts in April, but I have to give him partial credit on Burnett. 

Last Tuesday, York threw out all sorts of intiguing teams in connection with Dontrelle Willis.  The Blue Jays and Rockies were two I definitely hadn’t heard before.

Willis to Colorado isn’t as crazy as it sounds.  For one thing, the Rockies are shockingly a half game out of first place in the West.  Secondly, they’ve never really tried this strategy in Colorado: just acquire really good pitchers and the ballpark won’t matter.  A rotation of Willis, Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Jason Jennings, and Byung-Hyun Kim would actually be decent.  Would the Rox offer up Ian Stewart and Brad Hawpe?

The Blue Jays, though…that part would be more feasible if the team had expendable young studs with which to make a deal.  Dustin McGowan, Josh Banks, Brandon League, David Purcey, and Casey Janssen are all intriguing young pitchers, but only McGowan has been seen on any Top 50 Prospects lists.  I imagine the Fish would want Alex Rios in the deal.  Still doesn’t seem like a good fit.

York also mentions the Rangers, Yankees, and Phillies as interested parties. 

Lilly Wants To Be A Giant

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Ted Lilly was forthcoming yesterday with his desire: he’d like to play in the Bay Area for either the Giants or A’s.  Lilly mentioned that he was looking at the Giants’ rotation and doesn’t know whether they would have an opening.  I think we can reasonably answer his question.

Matt Morris, Noah Lowry, and Matt Cain form the foundation of the rotation.

Still, the Giants definitely will have a need for a starter.  Jason Schmidt is a free agent after this season.  If his first 52 innings are any indication, he’s going to have a huge price tag.  San Francisco may have to deal him midseason; I know Boston has expressed some interest.

Then there’s Brad Hennessey and Jamey Wright, a couple of guys with journeyman written all over them.  One of them might make a tolerable fifth but I wouldn’t bet on it.  Plus, the whole Matt Morris idea ain’t lookin’ so good right now.  The Giants have a few decent arms down at Double A, but their rotation has holes.

I don’t see the A’s re-signing Lilly, but they didn’t seem to have a big need for Esteban Loaiza either.  Stranger things have happened.

The fact that Lilly has yet to fully realize his promise won’t stop clubs from bidding on the free agent.  The southpaw seemed on the verge of a breakout after making 31 starts for the 2003 A’s.  He had a healthy strikeout rate and kept the walks at a reasonable level.  However, the A’s dealt him to Toronto that offseason because he was arbitration-eligible.

He started ’04 with a sore wrist.  Lilly still made it through a decent year, tossing a career high in innings.  His 4.06 per nine walk rate was a cause for concern, however.

Lilly began ’05 with another problem, shoulder tendinitis.  The issue lingered and then in May of that year his pitching coach accused him of being "lethargic" after a side session.  By July, the word was biceps tendinitis.  This time there was the dreaded visit to Dr. Lewis Yocum.  He made it out of there unscathed, but his shoulder blade caused discomfort by September. 

This season, his non-throwing shoulder barked a little bit.  Lilly seems OK now, and his 3.18 ERA through 34 innings looks pretty.  Still, he won’t see sustained success walking more than four batters per nine unless he becomes unhittable again, as he was in ’04. 

Given that Lilly will be 30 in 2006 and hasn’t shown both health and control in the same season since 2003, he’s probably going to be a bad signing.  Baseball Prospectus says he’d only be worth about $6MM if signed for 2007-09.  Nonetheless, if Barry stays and Schmidt leaves, I could see the Giants offering Lilly the standard 3/21 deal.  As with Morris, it won’t end well.   

Jays Want Craig Wilson, Burnett To Miss A Month?

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Columnist Marty York is "one of Canada’s most popular sports columnists with a track record for breaking big stories."  Works for me.  In yesterday’s column, he tells us that the Blue Jays would like to acquire Craig Wilson by Opening Day. 

York mostly disses the team’s interest in Wilson, comparing him to other "slow, white guys who can hit relatively well but who cannot run much and who are so subpar defensively that they have to be hidden at positions where they’re least likely to cause problems."  He ignores Wilson’s .363 career OBP in his comparison.  That’s the difference, Marty.

He mentions that the Braves, Padres, Mariners, and Indians are also interested in Wilson.

York goes on to report that A.J. Burnett will miss at least the first month of the 2006 season.  That’d be a pretty big hit to their staff.  This is definitely news to me, as I’d read that the injury was "not serious" and that he’d only miss a week or two.

Jays Close To Signing Molina

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Ken Rosenthal reports that the Blue Jays are nearing a $5MM deal with Bengie Molina.  There will be a $7.5MM option for 2007.

I’m just not sure this does much to improve the club.  The Jays forced Gregg Zaun to full-time catching duty last season, and he was worth 3.3 wins for his $950,000 salary.  Molina, while several years younger, is coming off a season in which he was worth 3.5 wins.  Molina will cost $4MM more than Zaun does and should net the team one additional win at most.

The Jays still have huge question marks in their corner outfield spots.  They plan to employ some sort of rotation of Eric Hinske, Reed Johnson, Alex Rios, and Frank Catalanotto.  Wouldn’t it make more sense to save this $5MM for a corner outfield trade acquisition?

Besides Carlos Lee, trade candidates include Adam Dunn, Cliff Floyd, Luis Gonzalez, Bobby Abreu, Aubrey Huff, and Austin Kearns.  I know players like these come with a hefty price, but if the Jays are to fully execute their "win now" plan they need to upgrade at at least one of the corners.

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