Uncategorized News & Rumors

Alex Reyes is officially out of the running for a rotation spot in St. Louis, per MLB.com’s Zachary Silver (via Twitter) and others. Reyes will head to the bullpen. With a healthy year, the Cardinals still hope that Reyes will pitch out of the rotation in 2022. For now, he’ll be limited to 100 innings, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). He’s likely to factor into the end-of-game mix for St. Louis. He made one start versus 14 appearances out of the pen last year, finishing with a 3.20 ERA/3.24 FIP across 19 2/3 innings.

Take Miles Mikolas out of the equation for the opening day rotation as well, adds Goold (via Twitter). Mikolas has been suffering from shoulder soreness and unable to shake it. He was scheduled to pitch tomorrow, but that’s no longer in the cards, meaning Mikolas won’t be able to get enough work in to be ready by the opener. Mikolas missed 2020 with a flexor tendon strain.

Originally signed to a two-year, $15.5MM deal out of Japan prior to the 2018 season. Mikolas made good on that deal, making 32 starts in each of 2018 and 2019 with a 3.46 ERA/3.76 FIP in 384 2/3 innings, 48.4 percent groundball rate, 18.4 percent strikeout rate and 3.9 percent walk rate. Though Mikolas falls on the lower end of the spectrum in terms of missing bats, he can be considered elite in limiting free passes. After a 200-inning effort in 2018, the Cardinals extended Mikolas for four years, $68MM. Last season was the first of those four seasons. The Cardinals owe Mikolas $17MM each year through 2023. He’ll undergo further testing in the hopes of pinpointing the source of his shoulder soreness.

The Cardinals rotation is already without Dakota Hudson, who had Tommy John surgery at the end of September. With Reyes headed for the bullpen and Mikolas joining Hudson on the shelf, there’s an opening at the back of the Cardinals’ rotation. Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim are the only gold-plated locks, with Carlos Martinez likely to join them. The last spot is an open competition between John Gant, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Johan Oviedo, and Jake Woodford.

The baseball community mourns the sudden passing of ESPN Reporter Pedro Gomez this morning. Gomez unexpectedly passed away at his home yesterday at the age of 58. Teams, players and reporters from all around the game have taken to social media to share their memories of the beloved journalist. MLB and the MLBPA joined the community in expressing their sadness over the loss, while ESPN shared the news of his passing with this tribute.

ESPN president Jimmy Pitaro released a statement, saying, “We are shocked and saddened to learn that our friend and colleague Pedro Gomez has passed away. Pedro was an elite journalist at the highest level and his professional accomplishments are universally recognized. More importantly, Pedro was a kind, dear friend to us all. Our hearts are with Pedro’s family and all who love him at this extraordinarily difficult time.”

Gomez’s lasting impact on the game could not be clearer than in the tremendous outpouring of support over the last few hours. Gomez leaves behind a wife and three children, one of whom is currently a pitcher in the Boston Red Sox organization. Everyone at MLBTR would like to share our condolences with Pedro’s friends and family. He will be missed.

One of my goals for MLBTR for 2021 is to update our agency database and improve its functionality.  Once the database is revamped, it will feature anyone who played in the Majors in the last three seasons as well as Baseball America’s most recent top 100 prospects, and we’ll work hard to keep it up-to-date.  As it stands, our database has a fair number of inaccuracies as well as missing agencies for certain players.  I’ve created a Google spreadsheet here with our current info.  If you work for an agency and have corrections or additions, please drop me a line at mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.  I also welcome corrections if they come from a recent credible article, which you can link to in the comments of this post.  We appreciate the help.

Major League Baseball is reportedly hoping to delay the 2021 regular season until May, which would set the stage for a second consecutive shortened campaign. However, the MLBPA fully plans on returning to a 162-game schedule next year, Evan Drellich of The Athletic reports.

In a statement issued Tuesday, MLBPA senior director of collective bargaining and legal Bruce Meyer said (via Drellich): “We’ve seen anonymous quotes attributed to club sources casting doubt on the start date and length of the season. To be clear, and as we’ve made clear to the league, players are planning on showing up for spring training on time for a full 162-game season as set forth in the collective bargaining agreement and the league’s previously issued schedule.”

At least a couple of the “anonymous quotes” Meyer referred to came from owners, including one who expects a delayed spring training and perhaps a 130 game-season. Depending on whether there are no fans (or at least fewer fans) in the stands next year, that may benefit the owners. However, it’s not going to fly for the union, as players are already coming off a season in which they lost 102 games and had to accept prorated salaries for the 60 they did play. While the union isn’t necessarily against revising the schedule, per Drellich, that’s only if the league manages to play a full 162 in 2021 or if each player at least earns a whole season’s pay.

The league has not yet proposed a truncated schedule to the players, according to Drellich, who notes that MLB has no right to impose a season length under the collective bargaining agreement. As Drellich points, though, there are other complicating factors, including whether Florida and Arizona municipalities will even allow spring training to begin on time. MLB could also suspend the season because of a national emergency, but that would surely lead to more strife between the league and union. That’s the last thing either side needs with the CBA set to expire in December 2021.

Several notable players have surpassed the threshold for Super Two status, earning them an extra year of arbitration eligibility.  According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), the following players have all gained a fourth arbitration year: Walker Buehler, Clint Frazier, Max Fried, Dominic Smith, Mike Soroka, Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, and Brandon Woodruff.  Other players who should qualify include J.D. Davis (as Tim Britton of The Athletic notes via Twitter) and Austin Slater (as per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman).

The official Super Two cutoff point hasn’t yet been established.  The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler reported that Miguel Andujar (who has two years and 117 days of service time) fell five days short of Super Two status, though Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports that the Nationals’ Wander Suero “missed it by just a few days,” and Suero has two years, 123 days of service time.

Of the players mentioned, Frazier has the least amount of service time, with two years and 133 days.  For comparison’s sake, here are the Super Two cutoff points for the last 11 years….

• 2019: 2.115
• 2018: 2.134
• 2017: 2.123
• 2016: 2.131
• 2015: 2.130
• 2014: 2.133
• 2013: 2.122
• 2012: 2.140
• 2011: 2.146
• 2010: 2.122
• 2009: 2.139

As a refresher, all players become eligible for arbitration after they amass three full seasons of Major League service time.  However, of the players who have between two and three seasons of service time, the top 22 percent of that group qualify as Super Twos, and thus they get become arbitration-eligible going into their third season, not after their third season.

Naturally, this means a lot of extra money in these players’ bank accounts, as they’ll get a significant raise on the minimum salary.  For the players who have already posted some big numbers, the ability to not just get an extra arbitration year but to establish a high salary benchmark in that first year provides the opportunity to bank several extra millions of dollars in escalating salaries through their arb years.  For instance, Soto has done nothing but mash at a Cooperstown level since joining the Nationals’ lineup, and is projected to earn between $4.5MM and $8.5MM in his first arb-eligible year.  Assuming Soto keeps producing at anything close to his current rate, he seems like a solid bet to reach $20MM in average annual salary by his fourth year of arbitration eligibility.

This offseason’s arbitration class is unusual, of course, since the shortened season will throw off some of the normal methods for calculating arb salaries.  In his annual arbitration projections for MLBTR, Matt Swartz provided three different methods (and often, three different projected salaries) for each player, depending on how arbiters view 2020 statistics.

It’s time for the MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest!  Click here to enter your picks for the destinations for our top 50 free agents.  The deadline for entry Friday, November 20th at 11pm central time.  You can edit your picks until then.  Further contest info:

• After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams.  We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it.  So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest.  Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
• We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.  I may also send occasional promotional emails for Trade Rumors Front Office.
• If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that’s a freebie, but you still need to go in and make the correct pick.
• After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms.  In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
• We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed.  We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place.  We will also be giving out ten one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office.  Winners must respond to an email within one week.
• Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total.  For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct.  Tim gets Trevor Bauer (#1 ranking) and James Paxton (#20 ranking) for a total of 21 points.  Steve gets Ha-Seong Kim (#6) and James McCann (#14) for a total of 20 points.  Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.

If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post!  Otherwise, make your picks now!

We’ll be taking reader submissions beginning Monday for our MLB Free Agent Prediction Contest.  Once all the entries are in, we like to put up a leaderboard on the site, which gets updated as players sign with teams.

I’m seeking someone to build a leaderboard from scratch, very similar to this one from last year.  On the backend, I’ll need a place to list the 50 contest free agents, update with the correct teams after each one signs, and import around 7,000 contest entries from Google Forms.  The front end will look and function exactly like this.

If you’re interested in tackling this paid project, please send an email to mlbtrhelp@gmail.com explaining your qualifications.

I’d like to take a brief moment to note that MLB Trade Rumors will no longer be doing posts when players change agencies.  MLBTR readers have consistently ignored those posts, which generally aren’t meaningful for those who don’t work in baseball.  This information is also the source of much drama between agents, in which we have little interest.  We do intend to make an exception and write a post when an agency change is a significant national story, like when Robinson Cano left Scott Boras for Jay-Z.

We’ve had an agency database for many years now, as it’s useful to our writers and a small subset of our readers.  In 2021, I plan to update and maintain this database, make it mobile-friendly, add a change history, and include it as a feature of a Trade Rumors Front Office subscription.