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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Diamondbacks feature quite a few roster chameleons, giving the team plenty of options this winter as it seeks to pursue immediate competitiveness without muddying the long-term outlook.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Ketel Marte: $21MM through 2022 (including buyouts of 2023-24 options)
  • Yasmany Tomas: $17MM through 2020
  • Eduardo Escobar: $14.5MM through 2021
  • Mike Leake: $6MM through 2020 (Cardinals & Mariners pay remainder of contract, including $9MM of salary and $5MM buyout of 2021 option)
  • Merrill Kelly: $3.5MM through 2020 (including buyout of 2021 option)
  • Diamondbacks also owe $20.667MM of salary to Zack Greinke through 2021

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Arizona Diamondbacks depth chart | Arizona Diamondbacks payroll outlook]

We heaped on the praise when the D-Backs announced they had re-upped GM Mike Hazen, and for good reason. He came into a tough spot and has both produced a competitive MLB team and improved the team’s talent pipeline. Shrewd moves abound — chief among them: acquiring and then locking up Ketel Marte before his breakout — even if they haven’t all been winners.

The Diamondbacks have played generally winning baseball in a wholesome and sustainable manner. That’s nice. But they were swept out of their 2017 postseason appearance and haven’t been back since. The Dodgers may not have swum in the Snakes’ pool of late, but they still haven’t let anyone join them in the NL West deep end since they splashed around Chase Field in 2013. And it isn’t as if the L.A. organization has monopolized the division through spending alone; it’s doing it in a cost-efficient manner that’s all the more fearsome for the teams chasing them from afar. If nobody is even nipping at their heels, the Dodgers will just keep cruising.

If the D-Backs are to force the issue in the division, or at least to stand out a bit in a crowded NL wild card picture, they will need both to continue making cost-efficient improvements and to find a way to make a Marte-esque leap. They don’t need to rush out and do another Greinke deal, by any means, but as presently constituted the roster is more solid than good — and that’s assuming healthy campaigns from some players that have had recent injury issues. Hazen still hasn’t promised double-digit millions in a single free agent contract. That seems likely to change this winter.

Looking at the payroll, there’s about $47.5MM written in ink. The arbitration outlay will probably more than double that starting point — if every eligible player is tendered. The Snakes can shear about $9MM if they move on from Jake Lamb and Steven Souza … and double that if they were to non-tender or trade David Peralta. If all three are cut loose, the club would have a few additional holes to deal with but could also have over $30MM in free payroll to play with — assuming the team is again comfortable opening with over $120MM on the books. The D-Backs don’t really have any true blue-chip prospects to use as trade assets, but the club has drawn praise for possessing an especially nice volume of farm talent. That should leave a lot of pieces to work with in trade talks.

So where is the work to be done? Not in the rotation, arguably. The D-Backs have turned over much of their starting staff since this time last year. Robbie Ray is the only holdover from before the 2018-19 offseason. The club brought aboard Luke Weaver and Merrill Kelly before the 2019 season and then added Zac Gallen and Mike Leake during that just-finished campaign. It’s not likely to be an overwhelming unit, but the spots seem ably accounted for. The Snakes surely feel they filled in the gaps when they picked up Gallen and Leake over the summer. The Gallen swap looks like a potential heist, though he’ll need to repeat his stunning breakout season and the Marlins surely feel good about what they saw from prospect Jazz Chisholm after picking him up in the deal. Leake can serve the part of veteran innings eater, joining Kelly to deliver a volume of serviceable frames. Ray is a bit of a wild card but is the kind of strikeout pitcher that teams dream on, while Weaver is coming back from injury but turned in a dozen sterling starts in 2019.

So, should the D-Backs go looking for a nice upside play and/or some depth in free agency? Not necessarily. There’s more to the rotation picture. The uber-talented Taijuan Walker will be working back from Tommy John surgery, with hopes he’ll be available for a good portion of the season. Corbin Martin is doing the same, though he’s unlikely to return before later in the year and is probably not a major factor in the 2020 planning. Jon Duplantier got his first taste of the majors last year and will surely be a factor. Taylor Clarke and Alex Young are among the 40-man roster pieces that contributed last year and can again be called upon; J.B. Bukauskas and Taylor Widener are perhaps the most promising upper-level prospects, though both had less-than-ideal results in 2019.

Some of those arms will spill over to the bullpen; Duplantier and Clarke each spent time there last season. But there’s some work to be done in the relief unit. Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, and mid-season callup Kevin Ginkel make for a nice trio of arms. Yoan Lopez and Stefan Chricton both got the job done in 2019, though the former had questionable peripherals and the latter has to prove he can do it over a full campaign. Matt Andriese suffered from the BABIP blues and could be asked back, though it’ll cost a bit. Otherwise, it’s Jimmie Sherfy and the leftover starters — good for a band name, but questionable for a contending pen.

There isn’t an overwhelming amount of need, but the D-Backs sure could stand to add at least one established, high-quality reliever to this mix. Having utilized Bradley in a flexible manner in recent years, with the closing job being occupied mostly by short-term signees, the team seems a likely bet to once more lure a veteran to the desert with promises of 9th-inning glory. We posited the club as a potential buyer of top-class relievers in compiling our list of the top 50 free agents, though we ultimately predicted a relatively low-cost accord with the sturdy and experienced Steve Cishek. This is certainly an area the team can spend on, particularly if it ticks off other needs at lower-than-expected expense, though the market isn’t exactly laden with high-end arms. The D-Backs could take a risk on a hurler like Dellin Betances and/or explore trade options.

On the position-player side, Hazen could go in quite a few different directions. Let’s start with what is in place. Carson Kelly will be the primary backstop, with Caleb Joseph and/or some other veteran (the Snakes like to carry three catchers) supplementing him. Marte can be lined up in center or at second base alongside shortstop Nick Ahmed. Either way, two of the three slots up the middle are accounted for. At the infield corners, Eduardo Escobar is a fixture while Christian Walker and Kevin Cron can be called upon at first base pending the arrival of Seth Beer. There’s room for a left-handed-hitting reserve in the mold of Lamb, who seems unlikely to be retained at his arb price point after two consecutive forgettable campaigns. And in the outfield, the D-Backs could rely upon Souza and David Peralta for a big chunk of the action … or they could move one or both of those not-insignificant salaries and go in a different direction entirely.

The Snakes gave a lot of plate appearances to light-hitting performers last year. Lamb, Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson, Tim Locastro, Ildemaro Vargas, Josh Rojas, and Blake Swihart combined for nearly two thousand trips to the dish; not one was within a dozen points of league average by measure of wRC+. It’s not a stretch to imagine Locastro, Vargas, and/or Rojas playing significant roles in 2020 and beyond. Ditto utility infielder Domingo Leyba. But the Snakes can’t afford to settle for that level of offensive output from such a major segment of the roster. They’ll need to fill in for the departing players and avoiding asking too much of those that remain from this list.

So, how to proceed? There are two key factors to consider here: Marte’s positional malleability and the payroll/roster flexibility in the corner outfield (and to some extent also at first base). With bench space to work with as well, there are quite a few ways in which the club could seek improvement. It was interesting to hear Hazen suggest recently that the team prefers Marte at second base. It would be easier to fill that spot from outside the organization, given the multitude of possibilities, but it appears the Snakes are likeliest to chase after a center fielder.

Put it all together, and it seems the overall focus is squarely on the outfield grass. Asked recently about Shogo Akiyama, Hazen revealed some level of interest in the Japanese center fielder. The meandering nature of the quote also served to underscore the wide-open nature of the offseason. “We think he’s a good player,” says Hazen of Akiyama. ” … We’re in the outfield market, the center-field market specifically. We’re in the entire market.”

The D-Backs do have some options up the middle, especially if they like Akiyama even more than they’ve already let on. He is arguably the only truly intriguing option on the open market, at least unless Brett Gardner considers a departure from the Yankees. But there are some trade possibilities. Starling Marte is the central focus on the trade market. He’ll be sought after by quite a few other teams as well, but there’s an argument to be made that he fits in just the right space (two years of affordable but not cheap control) for the D-Backs. It’s also possible to imagine the club looking at a few other possibilities. Old friend Ender Inciarte could conceivably be made available, depending upon how things develop in Atlanta. And Jackie Bradley Jr. figures to be dangled by the Red Sox; acquiring him might help quench Hazen’s insatiable thirst for Boston products. (We kid, but there’s no shortage of examples.) If the D-Backs can’t sort out an upgrade and are forced to utilize their existing Marte at times in center, they may come away with a timeshare veteran in the nature of Dyson, Leonys Martin, Juan Lagares, or Cameron Maybin. The club could instead utilize the speedy Locastro in such a capacity as well. Any of these fall-back possibilities would feel like a bit of a disappointment unless the Snakes end up securing other significant pieces.

None of the above-noted center field possibilities will bust the budget. Even if the Snakes score a second Marte, there should be cash left to work with to do more. And this is where things could get yet more interesting. Souza is an obvious non-tender candidate after an injury-cancelled campaign on the heels of a disastrous first year in the desert. But the Snakes could simply decide they like him better than any of the options they can get in free agency for a similar price tag. It’s actually a closer call than you might think on Peralta. He’s a rather accomplished hitter, to be sure, but the track record isn’t unassailable and he’s a 32-year-old looking to return from shoulder problems. And Peralta has long struggled against left-handed pitching. The Snakes might reasonably believe they can do more for less in trade or on the open market, though there has been no suggestion to this point that they are considering moving on.

Whether or not one or both of those players is retained — whether through arbitration or in a re-signing following a non-tender — there are many opportunities to consider. This year’s market includes a group of unusually youthful and talented corner outfielders: Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, Avisail Garcia, and Yasiel Puig. It isn’t hard to fall in love with some of those players’ tools; perhaps the D-Backs could consider a somewhat longer, lower-AAV contract if they like one of the group in particular. There are lefty bats in the form of Corey Dickerson, Kole Calhoun, and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. There aren’t an immense number of obvious trade targets to consider, but the Diamondbacks could look into the likes of Trey Mancini, Clint Frazier, and perhaps even Mookie Betts or Andrew Benintendi, depending upon what the Red Sox end up pursuing. Though the Snakes have mostly worked to remove big veteran salaries, they could consider a player such as Charlie Blackmon — not that an intra-division deal is likely to be sorted out for such a fan favorite. The same issue applies to the Dodgers, who could end up with an extra outfield piece to move. Relieving the Athletics of their obligations to Stephen Piscotty could conceivably work for both teams. It’s not impossible to imagine the Mets talking about Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, or J.D. Davis. There are plenty of other possible scenarios that may be explored but are even more speculative than the ones just listed.

If that feels like relatively short-term patchwork … well, that’s pretty much what’s available. And it’s also what Hazen has done so well thus far. Putting some added financial gusto behind the effort could yield dividends. Exploring moves to bring in a star makes sense, but that’s a necessarily speculative endeavor. That approach could spill over and meld with the first base and broader bench. As noted above, the D-Backs have some younger players they like. In addition to those already listed, catcher/utilityman Daulton Varsho and first baseman/outfielder Pavin Smith could be closing in on the majors. But the former is now recovering from an ankle injury and the latter is still working to re-burnish his prospect standing.

Expecting something from the existing, younger players is sensible. But the Diamondbacks can and should reduce their reliance on them as immediate options without cutting off their paths entirely. Short-term veteran role players abound. Lefty bats seem to make particular sense given the existing array in the infield. Brock Holt is among the utility pieces that could shoulder some of the load all over the field. A lefty slugger makes tons of sense to form a platoon at first base, with Eric Thames representing the top of that market. Perhaps Mike Moustakas could reprise his surprise utility role, appearing all over the infield for the Snakes. If the Cards decide to try to shed some of Matt Carpenter’s contract to free up payroll and roster space, perhaps the Arizona org could take a chance on the veteran and come away with another desired piece as well.

It’s frankly hard to pin down a simple task list given the adaptable roster and payroll circumstances — a credit to Hazen’s handiwork. The Snakes have some shape-shifting puzzle pieces and blank Scrabble tiles to work with. It makes for a choose-your-own-offseason decision tree that could take any number of different courses over the months to come.

MLBPA Rejects Proposal For Multiyear Contract Deadline

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One of the main criticisms of Major League Baseball’s recent free-agent periods is that star players have gone too long without signing contracts. Just last offseason, the game’s two premier free agents, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, didn’t ink deals until a few weeks before the regular campaign started. The same was true of Jake Arrieta, to name one prominent example, the prior winter. But MLB has shown interest in cutting down on big-name stragglers on the open market, Evan Drellich of The Athletic explains (subscription link). Earlier this month, the league sent a proposal to the MLBPA that would’ve placed a cutoff date on free agents signing multiyear contracts, but the union summarily shot it down, according to Drellich.

“After due consideration, we rejected their proposal as not being in the best interests of players,” MLBPA senior director of collective bargaining and legal Bruce Meyer said (via Drellich). “We asked if MLB was interested in discussing other, more direct and tangible ways of incentivizing early signings and they weren’t at this time.”

Had the union said yes to the league’s idea, there wouldn’t have been any contracts of more than one year doled out past the Dec. 8-12 winter meetings. MLB at least wanted to implement the plan on a one-year trial basis this winter, Drellich reports, but the union didn’t think it would benefit the players because it might have given too much leverage to the teams. In the MLBPA’s estimation, a multiyear signing deadline would have created a “take-it-or-leave-it” mentality among some free agents, who may have felt pressured to accept an offer before the drop-dead date, potentially decreasing their earning power.

Of course, there’s also an argument a deadline would’ve taken away quite a bit of offseason intrigue. In leagues like the NFL, NBA and NHL, free agency often opens with a mad rush of headline-worthy moves before becoming rather dull with most of the top players off the board. For better or worse (depending on your perspective), that hasn’t really been the case in baseball, nor does it look as if it will be this offseason with super-agent Scott Boras set to oversee negotiations for the likes of Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg and perhaps J.D. Martinez. Boras clients (including Harper and Arrieta) have shown a willingness to hang on the open market for months until the absolute best deal comes along.

The outspoken Boras shared his opinion on MLB’s rejected FA proposal with Drellich, saying in part: “They want to make the offseason more predictive as to when players sign, and the answer to do that is to provide incentive, not limitation, on the free-agent right. A player has six years, he should determine when he signs, that should be his choice, because he’s earned that right. Any restriction, any limitation on that timeframe would restrict the right. Because some clubs make decisions in February they wouldn’t make in December. And there’s obviously a strong history for that.”

MiLB President Responds To MLB Restructuring Proposal

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Yesterday, MLBTR relayed news that Major League Baseball is pursuing a “radical restructuring” of the lower minor-leagues, with reports indicating that the league is proposing the elimination of roughly one-quarter of current affiliate teams. While deputy commissioner Dan Halem framed these potential changes as being to the benefit of MiLB ballplayers (being that a reorganization would, in theory, allow for better pay, upgraded facilities, and streamlined travel accommodations), it does not sound as if officials from Minor League Baseball are on board with this proposed sea change.

In a report for The Athletic, writer Evan Drellich says an “enormous chasm” exists between MLB and MiLB as the two seek to organize a new working arrangement (link). MLB’s move toward en masse affiliate contraction does not sit well with MiLB, with MiLB President Pat O’Conner revealing that legal action is a possibility if a return to the bargaining table does not produce a more mutually appealing proposal.

“If we are forced to defend ourselves and fight for our mere survival, we will,” O’Conner told Drellich. “We would hope to negotiate a reasonable settlement with MLB. Short of that we have multiple options. Appealing to Congress, state, county and local elected officials is certainly one of them.” It is worth noting that legal action is characterized as a “last resort” in Drellich’s report.

Drellich also gives equal time to Halem, with the deputy commish reiterating the proposal’s intended benefits toward player working conditions–including increased wages. Halem also asserts that the introduction of advanced analytics and scouting methods have reduced the viability of maintaining such a deep stack of affiliate clubs, since 95% of players drafted after the 25th round never reach the majors. The implications here are interesting, with Halem suggesting the effective value of lower-level teams has decreased as MLB clubs have improved in the location and development of premier talent. “It is a tough sell to tell Major League Clubs that they need to hire more players than they may need in order to provide free labor to the minor league clubs,” Halem states.

For a complete history of the centuries-spanning working arrangement between MLB teams and their affiliates, Baseball America’s JJ Cooper details the oft-contentious process involved in maintaining a talent development pipeline that is unique among major American sports (link). The working arrangement that binds the two entities, entitled the Professional Baseball Agreement, is set to expire after the 2020 season.

Agent Matt Sosnick Arrested On Charges Of Domestic Violence

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MLB agent Matt Sosnick was arrested in Northern California on charges of domestic violence and misdemeanor child endangerment dating to an incident that occurred with his wife on October 8, TMZ Sports recently reported. He was arrested a second time on Oct. 9 for violating conditions of a temporary restraining order that was filed against him.

Erica Sosnick is the alleged victim in this case against him. She has filed for divorce, though her attorney has stated an intention to dismiss the restraining order filed against Mr. Sosnick.

When reached by MLBTR, the MLBPA, which is in charge of certifying agents, declined to comment. Disciplinary action could be forthcoming, as the MLBPA agent regulations do contain provisions requiring that agents refrain from “unlawful conduct.” Whether and how the regulations might be applied in this case is not evident at this time.

Sosnick’s agency, Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon Sports represents a number of high-profile ballplayers, including Pete Alonso, Max Kepler, and Blake Snell. Earlier today, Paul Cobbe of Sosnick, Cobbe and Karon Sports released the following statement regarding fellow partner Matt Sosnick: “Domestic violence of any type is a concern to all of us, and our agency views the recent arrest of and allegations levied against Matt Sosnick as a very serious matter.  We also believe in an individual’s right to due process, and we will continue to work with all parties involved to ensure that the legal process is allowed to run its course.  Because of the familial nature of the accusations, we will refrain from commenting further until the matter is settled.” 

Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds

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We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ll now turn to a Reds club that has its eyes fixed on returning to the postseason. Having already pulled off a surprising mid-season strike for veteran righty Trevor Bauer, the Reds will be looking to add a few more key pieces this winter.

[Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart]

1. Take Heed Of Other Teams’ Ramp-Up Difficulties

When fans hear Cincinnati baseball ops chief Dick Williams speak of riding a bigger payroll to the postseason, they surely have flashbacks to the team’s recent 2010-13 inflection point. But they should shudder at the thought of what came before (nine-straight losing campaigns) and after (six straight) that four-season stretch. Williams and co. must work not only to get back to the promised land, but to create a sustainable (or at least more swiftly recoverable) means of doing so.

As they ponder the possibilities, the Reds need to be mindful of the recent experiences of the NL-rival Rockies and Diamondbacks — two clubs that have historically occupied similar tax brackets while dealing with the challenges of offensively charged home parks. While the Colorado organization successfully cracked the postseason code for two-straight seasons, its ramped-up free-agent spending — especially, on multiple veteran relievers — didn’t deliver the hoped-for impact. The Rockies have rather swiftly found themselves in a tight payroll spot. Before that, the Snakes slammed the pedal to the floor a bit too hard — the Shelby Miller trade and Zack Greinke signing — and veered right off course.

We’re not suggesting the Reds shouldn’t be excited to fling open a window of contention. But the club needs to measure its moves carefully, especially since it already parted with touted prospect Taylor Trammell in the Bauer swap. Running up payroll for a single season isn’t necessarily a problem, but the club can ill afford multiple, hefty, unproductive contracts like those the Rockies have accumulated. And it will be even more wary of Arizona-like over-exuberance that could cost a rare chance at an extended period of competitiveness.

Precisely how to navigate things will depend upon the opportunities that arise. But the Reds can look to some other National League clubs for guidance. The Braves (Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel) and Brewers (Yasmani Grandal) both cashed in with expensive, one-year deals. Had they fallen flat, the clubs would simply have shrugged and moved on. If the Reds are to place a longer-term bet, it probably shouldn’t come in a bidding war on a veteran reliever. Last year’s acquisition and extension of Sonny Gray would be hard to replicate, but spreading the cost over a slightly longer term (as the Rangers have with Lance Lynn and Mike Minor) could give the team a shot at landing a high-quality player at an affordable price.

2. Pursue Upside Up The Middle

It just so happens that the Reds are less-than-settled in the middle infield. Jose Iglesias turned in a solid campaign but is a free agent. Jose Peraza can be tasked with a utility role but not trusted as a regular. The club controls the rights to Freddy Galvis, but he should be a reserve on a contender. Nick Senzel is uber-talented and capable of playing center field or second base, so there’s some flexibility to work with for the Reds. There’s at least a sturdy floor behind the dish, but the defensively renowned Tucker Barnhart doesn’t have much of a bat.

This may be the place for the Reds to strike. On the one hand, the upcoming open market isn’t laden with great possibilities. There are quite a few guys that have at times been solid or better middle infielders, but it’s awfully light on players that appear to be present-talent true regulars. And the center field market is barren. But that also reflects the fact that many teams are already settled in these areas. And there are some intriguing options, including the aforementioned Grandal as well as old friend and bounceback candidate Didi Gregorius. It’s far from clear what’ll be available via trade, but there could be some awfully appealing names dangled. The pie-in-the-sky trade candidates are Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien, who can’t be ruled out entirely given their respective organizations’ long-view strategies. It’s much easier to envision Starling Marte coming available, and he’d be quite an interesting target with two cost-controlled seasons left on his deal. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Ender Inciarte are among the potentially available players that are somewhat interesting but lower-ceiling possibilities.

Yep, the Reds still need to bear in mind the issues raised in item #1 above. An all-in strategy to go for Semien without an extension in place would likely not be wise. But if the Cincinnati club is going to go past its comfort zone a bit, it ought to be on a player who not only has a sturdy anticipated performance floor but also carries some real star potential. There are relatively few options, so they might need to be explored early. If nothing comes available at a reasonable price, the Reds can pivot to the many affordable options while seeing if anything has fallen through the cracks (Yasiel Puig???) in other areas.

3. Don’t Forget Pitching Depth

Yeah, the Reds got really nice output from their rotation this year and picked up Bauer to help lead the charge in 2020. And they have clear need to improve up the middle and/or with a new outfield bat. But this team could easily get in trouble if it doesn’t allocate some resources to protect the pitching staff, especially with Great American Ball Park as the backdrop.

Here’s the thing to bear in mind when you start thinking about whether and how the Reds can build off of 2019: they are unlikely to enjoy such phenomenal pitching health. Aside from Alex Wood, who returned for seven starts after missing much of the season, the club’s starters were more or less always available when scheduled. And the relief corps received voluminous contributions from its best arms: Amir Garrett made 69 appearances; Robert Stephenson and Raisel Iglesias each cracked sixty innings; Michael Lorenzen threw 83 1/3 frames.

While the Reds might not feel a need to chase improvement in the pitching staff, they ought to be relatively aggressive with spending 2020 cash on depth arms. There are a range of possibilities — the acquisition of a volume swingman, risking a bit of payroll space on a few durable veteran relievers, targeting optionable arms on waiver claims — but the overarching approach must build in some contingencies. Not doing so carries significant risk. Early-season pitching additions can be exceptionally pricey and it’s a long time to wait til the trade deadline when you’re trying to break back into the postseason.

Boras Corp. Amateur Department Research Job Opening

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From time to time, as a service to our readers, MLB Trade Rumors will post job opportunities of possible interest that are brought to our attention. MLBTR has no affiliation with the hiring entity, no role in the hiring process, and no financial interest in the posting of this opportunity.

Position: Boras Corp. Market Research Analysis & Presentation Design
Location: Southern California

Description:
From our Southern California office you will help support a team of representatives by analyzing baseball markets, creating marketing and presentation materials using multi-media, and managing performance and information databases. The ideal candidate is a creative thinker, well-organized, a good communicator, and team-oriented. While previous experience in baseball is not required, the candidate must possess a passion for the game. This is a full-time position we aim to fill as soon as possible. It is located in Newport Beach, CA (relocation to Orange County is not provided).

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Proficient in Microsoft Excel and Keynote, Apple iBooks familiarity.
  • Experience in creating presentations
  • Prior baseball or team sports experience.

To Apply:

To apply, please send an email with the subject “Research Position” to  baseballresume@gmail.com by September 29, 2019.

The body of the email should contain the following, in this order:

  • Your resume.
  • In addition to the traditional resume information, please be sure to include any details about athletic experience.
  • Your full contact information.
  • How you obtained this listing.
  • Your minimum annual salary requirement (needs to be a specific dollar figure).

Emails that do not contain all of this information will not be considered. Please do not send cover letters or attachments. Any application with an attachment will be discarded. Non-local candidates must be able to find transportation to Southern California to interview.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Didi Gregorius

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The Xander Bogaerts extension was quite surprising when signed and has only increased in value to the Red Sox since. That deal gave the Yankees’ chief nemesis extended control over a core asset. It also removed the chief potential market rival for New York shortstop Didi Gregorius.

Gregorius will presumably be basking in the glow of a long-term deal when he celebrates his thirtieth birthday at the outset of Spring Training next year. He enjoys a rather favorable free-agent outlook from a structural standpoint, though he’ll likely have to decline a qualifying offer (and take on the drag of draft compensation) to get there. Just scan the list of pending free agents and you’ll see why Gregorius is still sitting pretty despite his somewhat tepid initial showing this year.

There’s some slight possibility Elvis Andrus will opt out of his deal with the Rangers, but the smart money says he’ll stay put in Texas. Veterans like Freddy Galvis, Jose Iglesias, and Jordy Mercer will be seen only as bench or second-division fill-in options. There’s competition on the left side of the infield more generally, with Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson hitting the open market, and there are some other solid options capable of playing third or second base. But teams intent on signing a quality regular shortstop have nowhere else to turn.

The circumstances are ripe for Sir Didi to maximize his value. But the fundamentals will still drive the bidding. Gregorius has still only played about a quarter of a season’s worth of games this year, having missed the early portion of the season due to Tommy John surgery, but he’s also now nearly halfway through his platform presentation. Let’s see where things stand …

In his first three seasons in New York, Gregorius hit at a roughly league-average .276/.313/.432 clip while averaging 18 long balls annually. His power and output was trending northward, but didn’t fully arrive until a breakout 2018 campaign in which he slashed a robust .268/.335/.494, swatted 27 dingers, and posted a much-improved 69:48 K/BB ratio over 569 trips to the plate.

The difference in the offensive output is significant, obviously. Gregorius is generally perceived and graded as a solid fielder and quality baserunner. With even league-average hitting mixed in, he’s arguably a 3 WAR true-talent player. But with the 121 wRC+ performance he put up last year? Now you’re looking at a guy that’s pushing 5 WAR in a good and healthy season.

We’ve seen signs of both ends of the range for Gregorius thus far in 2019. The overall output sits right in range of league average, with a familiar blend of good pop and middling on-base skills. He’s averaging the same above-average sprint speed as usual and has mostly graded in range of average in the field — not that metrics are particularly telling with just over 300 innings as a sample.

Unsurprisingly, Gregorius has chased both high four-seamers (as he has long been wont to do) and low offspeed offerings (ditto). Pitchers have long attacked him in this manner — and for good reason. Chasing lots of pitches out of the zone has been a part of the Gregorius way since he landed with the Yankees. But he’s doing so now at heretofore unseen levels: 42.2%, up from 36.2% last year. Gregorius is also swinging and missing more now (11.1%) than he did in 2018 (9.2%).

As a result, there has been a notable and somewhat concerning backslide in the plate discipline department. That’s where Gregorius really thrived in 2018, driving his career year. Last season: 12.1% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate. Thus far in 2019: 13.5% strikeout rate, 4.5% walk rate.

But let’s slow down. Gregorius was coming back in the middle of the season after his long rehab effort. And he has already shown notable mid-season plate-discipline improvement. Through his first 22 games, Gregorius maintained a .298 on-base percentage. In his next 20? Um, also a .298 OBP. But he’s getting there in a different way. Gregorius went down on strikes 17 times while drawing just three walks in the first period. In the past twenty contests he has seven strikeouts and five free passes. While his BABIP has taken a downturn in period #2, that’s all but assuredly happenstance (not least of which since his slugging percentage is up to .500, suggesting he’s having little trouble putting the barrel on the ball).

In the power department, Gregorius is carrying the same dozen-plus-percent HR/FB rate and steep average launch angle (17.1 degrees, currently) we’ve become accustomed to. Statcast doesn’t love Gregorius’s batted-ball profile any more than it has in recent seasons, but it also still shows that he isn’t exactly getting by on cheap dingers. While he isn’t making consistently loud contact, with an 87.0 mph average exit velo and .294 xwOBA, he can put a charge in a ball. Gregorius’s eight long balls this year have left the yard at an average 101.1 mph velocity and 28.1 degree launch angle.

All things considered, it seems Gregorius is at worst much the same player he was before his uptick last year. Depending upon how one grades his anticipated future glovework, it’s quite possible to believe he’s a solid 3.5 WAR shortstop who is worthy of being installed as an everyday option for the next several seasons. Given his showing at the plate over the past three weeks, it also seems possible that he’ll end the present season looking more like his 2018 self — the best version we’ve yet seen of Didi.

Either way, we already have a pretty good hint as to one element of Gregorius’s market valuation. The Yanks tendered him a contract last winter, ultimately agreeing to a substantial $11.75MM payday, despite knowing in advance that Gregorius would miss a significant amount of time and face some rehab uncertainty. Gregorius won’t challenge Bogaerts (even at the reduced rate he settled for) in terms of annual salary or years, but the Yankees shortstop is in position — especially with a strong finish — to line up a strong three or four-year pact at a relatively hefty AAV.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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East Notes: Thor, Lowe, Bundy, Richard

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The Mets’ struggles have mounted to the point that their general manager acknowledges having “low expectations” for the season’s second half. Despite the organization’s dumpster fire start, their young flamethrower has no hope of going elsewhere. “I love being a Met,” Noah Syndergaard told reporters, including Tim Healey of Newsday. “If something were to ever change, it’d be definitely bittersweet just because of New York City itself, the fan base and just the guys in this clubhouse have a special place in my heart.” As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explored yesterday in a ranking of the top 60 trade candidates, the time might not be optimal to move Thor, who comes with two additional years of team control and is currently amidst a career-worst, albeit still more than adequate, season.

As we await the Mets’ next move, let’s check in on some injury notes from the East divisions:

  • Rays infielder Brandon Lowe might not return from the 10-day injured list until the club’s next homestand, which begins Friday against the White Sox, manager Kevin Cash told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Lowe, who leads AL rookies with 2.5 fWAR, was placed on the IL July 4 with a right shin contusion, sustained when he fouled a ball off his leg. Lowe’s .276/.339/.523 line isn’t quite sustainable so long as he continues to strike out in a third of his plate appearances, but there’s little question getting his bat back in the lineup will be a boon for a team looking to augment its roster in the coming weeks.
  • While Lowe will take more than the minimum to recover from his injury, Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy hopes to be more fortunate. Bundy was placed on the IL yesterday with right knee tendinitis, but he tells Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter) he’s confident he can return when first eligible on July 23. It’s been more of the same this year for the former fourth overall pick; despite a solid 24% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk rate, an inability to keep the ball in the yard has Bundy’s ERA above 5.00 for the second consecutive season. Given his performance, he seems unlikely to be much of a trade chip this summer, even if he does return to the field in short order.
  • The Blue Jays announced they’ve placed Clayton Richard on the 10-day injured list with a left lat strain, activating Edwin Jackson from an IL stint of his own in a corresponding move. Richard departed yesterday’s start against the Yankees after just two innings, leaving the bullpen to handle a hefty workload. The IL stint seems to foreclose any chance the Jays can flip Richard before the trade deadline, but he wouldn’t have been in high demand regardless, as he’s managed only a 5.96 ERA with a woeful 11% strikeout rate over ten starts. The 35-year-old is playing out the final months of a two-year/$6MM contract and is likely headed for a minor-league deal this winter.

Rockies Expected To Recall Kyle Freeland This Weekend

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The Rockies are “expected” to call left-hander Kyle Freeland back up to the Majors to rejoin their rotation on Saturday, Kyle Newman of the Denver Post reports. Colorado optioned the southpaw to Triple-A last month after a prolonged cold spell.

That Freeland’s difficulties reached the point where an optional assignment was deemed necessary was a fairly stunning development. The 26-year-old finished seventh in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2017 and placed fourth in last season’s NL Cy Young race in what looked to be a breakout campaign. And while some might’ve anticipated a bit off regression, given Freeland’s average strikeout rate and good fortune on home runs clearing the fence, a downturn to the extent of this year’s 7.13 ERA and 2.43 HR/9 was utterly unforeseeable.

Freeland, though, is hardly the only Rockies starter who has taken a step back in 2019. Jon Gray and German Marquez have been solid, although even Marquez’s results pale in comparison to his 2018 output. Meanwhile each Antonio Senzatela, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis and Peter Lambert have all turned in ERAs of 5.32 or worse in their starts this season. Those catastrophic results make the Rockies a logical candidate to pursue rotation help on the trade market over the course of the next three weeks — if they do indeed decide to buy in a push to land an NL Wild Card spot. Colorado is 14.5 games out of the division lead but a much more manageable two and a half games back in the Wild Card race.

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