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Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas Elected To Hall Of Fame

By Steve Adams | January 8, 2014 at 1:27pm CDT

The Baseball Writers Association of America has elected Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas to the Hall of Fame.

Maddux, often referred to as "The Professor," won 355 games with a 3.16 ERA in 5,008 1/3 career innings. He averaged 6.1 K/9 (3,371 career strikeouts) and 1.8 BB/9 (999 career walks) over that time and captured four consecutive NL Cy Young Awards from 1992-95. He also fired 109 complete games, including 35 shutouts, and picked up 18 Gold Glove Awards as well. Baseball-Reference valued his career at 104.6 WAR, while Fangraphs had him at 113.9.

His longtime teammate, Glavine, won two NL Cy Young Awards (and had three other Top 3 finishes) en route to a career 3.54 ERA. Glavine won 305 games, striking out 2607 batters (5.3 K/9) against 1500 walks (3.1 BB/9) in 4,413 1/3 career innings. He completed 56 of his 682 career starts and totaled 25 shutouts along the way. Baseball-Reference pegs him at 74 WAR, while Fangraphs values his career at 64.3 WAR.

Thomas was one of the game's most feared power hitters for the majority of his 19-year career. "The Big Hurt" owns a lifetime .301/.419/.555 batting line with 521 homers and 1,704 RBIs. He won the American League MVP in 1993-94 and had four other Top 4 finishes in that voting. Thomas' OPS+ of 156 is tied with the great Willie Mays for the 19th-highest in Major League history, placing him one point ahead of Hank Aaron. In terms of WAR, Baseball-Reference has Thomas at 73.6 compared to Fangraphs' 72.4.

Falling painfully shy of enshrinement is Astros great Craig Biggio, who received 74.8 percent of the vote, meaning he was two votes shy of being elected. That should bode well for his future chances, and one would imagine that he is a lock for election in the coming years.

Also of note is Jack Morris, whose 61.5% vote count did not get him elected in his 15th and final time on the BBWAA ballot. Opinions have varied widely on Morris, whose 10-inning shutout in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series against the Braves is considered one of the greatest postseason performances in history. He will now have to wait until at least 2016 for another chance at the Hall of Fame, when the Veteran's Committee can vote on his fate.

Maddux's 97.2 percent vote count is overwhelming, but also means that he was left off of an incredible 16 ballots. It was thought that he could pass Tom Seaver for the greatest total ever, but Tom Terrific's mark of 98.8 percent still remains the top in Hall of Fame voting history. Mike Piazza (62.2 percent), Jeff Bagwell (54.3 percent) and Tim Raines (46.1 percent) were among the other top vote-getters. Click here for the full results, and congratulations from the MLBTR team to Maddux, Glavine and Thomas on the well-deserved elections.

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Extension Candidates

By Tim Dierkes | January 3, 2014 at 11:10am CDT

From November 2012 through May 2013, 27 players with less than six years of Major League service signed contract extensions.  23 of these deals were signed after January 15th, and it's safe to say extension season will begin this year a little before the January 17th figure exchange date for arbitration eligible players.

Here's the breakdown by service time from the last extension period:

  • 1-2: 2
  • 2-3, not Super Two: 2
  • 2-3, Super Two: 4
  • 3-4 years: 4
  • 4-5 years: 8
  • 5-6 years: 7

It was a pretty even distribution – four players who were not yet arbitration eligible were extended (all in March or later), while at the other end of the spectrum, seven players were headed into their contract years and signed extensions instead.  Here's a look at each team's speculative extension candidates.  The date of the team's last multiyear deal for a player with less than six years of service is in parentheses.

  • Angels (2-5-13): Mike Trout
  • Astros (7-13-13): Jason Castro
  • Athletics (4-11-11): Jed Lowrie, Brandon Moss, Jim Johnson, Luke Gregerson, Craig Gentry, John Jaso, Josh Donaldson, A.J. Griffin, Jarrod Parker
  • Blue Jays (3-27-13): Colby Rasmus, Brett Cecil
  • Braves (1-4-11): Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Craig Kimbrel, Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, Chris Johnson, Andrelton Simmons, Julio Teheran
  • Brewers (3-13-13): Jean Segura
  • Cardinals (3-8-13): Matt Carpenter, Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn
  • Cubs (5-13-13): Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, Nate Schierholtz, Welington Castillo
  • Diamondbacks (12-20-13): Mark Trumbo, Gerardo Parra, Pat Corbin, Wade Miley, A.J. Pollock
  • Dodgers (2-7-12): Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen
  • Giants (3-29-13): Brandon Belt, Pablo Sandoval
  • Indians (2-7-13): Justin Masterson, Jason Kipnis, Corey Kluber
  • Mariners (1-5-11): Kyle Seager
  • Marlins (12-19-10): Giancarlo Stanton, Steve Cishek, Jose Fernandez
  • Mets (4-4-12): Dillon Gee, Daniel Murphy, Bobby Parnell
  • Nationals (1-18-13): Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond, Doug Fister, Stephen Strasburg, Tyler Clippard, Wilson Ramos, Bryce Harper
  • Orioles (2-9-13): Chris Davis, Tommy Hunter, Matt Wieters, Manny Machado, Chris Tillman
  • Padres (9-5-12): Andrew Cashner, Chase Headley, Ian Kennedy, Everth Cabrera, Tyson Ross, Eric Stults, Jedd Gyorko
  • Phillies (2-19-12): Kyle Kendrick, Ben Revere, Domonic Brown
  • Pirates (12-11-13): Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, Mark Melancon, Gerrit Cole, Starling Marte
  • Rangers (11-7-13): Jurickson Profar
  • Rays (12-3-13): David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Wil Myers, Desmond Jennings
  • Red Sox (1-19-13): Junichi Tazawa, Xander Bogaerts
  • Reds (2-12-13): Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, Mike Leake, Todd Frazier
  • Rockies (2-11-13): Nolan Arenado, Wilin Rosario, Tyler Chatwood, Rex Brothers
  • Royals (3-30-12): Greg Holland, Eric Hosmer, Luke Hochevar, Lorenzo Cain
  • Tigers (1-12-11): Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Austin Jackson
  • Twins (12-6-12): No likely candidates
  • White Sox (3-7-13): Jose Quintana
  • Yankees (2-1-08): Ivan Nova, David Robertson, Brett Gardner

With over 100 extension candidates listed, obviously I have taken an inclusive approach.  In each case, it makes sense to evaluate the history of the team, GM, and agent.  For example, the Yankees generally don't do multiyear deals with their players before they reach free agency, though their contract six years ago with Robinson Cano was a huge win.  And while agent Scott Boras typically encourages his clients to explore free agency, he was open to precedent-setting early deals for Elvis Andrus and Carlos Gonzalez (and was perhaps ordered to broker the team-friendly contract for Carlos Gomez).

I encourage you to explore the possibilities with extension candidates using the myriad of tools available at MLB Trade Rumors, including our extension tracker and arbitration tracker.

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Finding A Three-Year Deal In The New Year

By Tim Dierkes | January 3, 2014 at 7:45am CDT

19 free agent contracts guaranteeing three or more years have already been signed this offseason, matching the high from the previous five offseasons.  With Ervin Santana, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, Stephen Drew, and Nelson Cruz still on the market, it seems likely we'll ultimately see 20 or more deals of three or more years in this 2013-14 offseason.  However, if recent history is a guide, one or more of these players will be left standing without a chair.

Here's a look at the number of contracts for three or more years signed in each of the past five offseasons:

  • 2012-13: 19
  • 2011-12: 11
  • 2010-11: 17
  • 2009-10: 8
  • 2008-09: 13

Please note that international free agents, typically from Japan or Cuba, have been excluded from this exercise since they often operate on different timelines than traditional free agents.

Of the 68 free agent contracts guaranteeing three or more years from the past five offseasons, 13 were officially signed in January or later (19.1%).  Of those 13, nine were clients of the Boras Corporation, including big money players like Prince Fielder, Adrian Beltre, Matt Holliday, Mark Teixeira, and Derek Lowe.  Agent Scott Boras has a reputation of waiting out the market, and it has served him well in many cases.  While my early November projection of a four-year, $48MM deal for Boras client Stephen Drew seems unlikely at this point, I never viewed Kendrys Morales as likely to get a third guaranteed year.  Though the current market for Drew does not seem robust, I still expect Boras to get at least three years for him.

Since the 2008-09 offseason, only four free agents not represented by Boras have received contracts of three or more years in January or later: Edwin Jackson, Nick Swisher, Jason Bay, and Milton Bradley.  The deals for Jackson and Swisher were actually agreed upon prior to Christmas 2012 and announced officially on January 2nd and 3rd, respectively.  Similarly, the Mets' deal with Bay was reached on December 29th, 2009.  In the last five offseasons, Milton Bradley is the only non-Boras free agent to actually agree to a free agent contract of three or more years in January or later (January 5th, 2009).  Bradley's deal was done by ACES.

If you're a free agent who expected at least three years at the outset of the 2013-14 offseason, and you're not represented by Boras, this trend has to be troubling.  Specifically, the spotlight is on the agents for Ervin Santana (Bean Stringfellow), Matt Garza (Nez Balelo), Ubaldo Jimenez (John Courtright), and Nelson Cruz (Adam Katz).  If any of these four fail to get at least three years, their agent has failed to meet expectations.

As has been widely discussed, Cruz is in a perilous situation.  We don't know what offers the 33-year-old slugger has received to date, but he's tied to draft pick compensation and seems light on current suitors.  Way back in October while working on Cruz's free agent profile for MLBTR, Steve Adams pitched a two-year, $26MM prediction to me and it sounded about right at the time.  Enough information came out in the week following that both of us felt good about Steve's ultimate three-year, $39MM prediction.

In late November, after fellow Biogenesis-connected free agent Jhonny Peralta signed a surprisingly strong four-year, $53MM deal, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports heard from sources that Cruz was "said to seek about $75 million over four years."  While starting negotiations at four years was a plausible tactic in November, an average annual value approaching $19MM never seemed realistic.  Nearly two weeks later, on the first day of the Winter Meetings, ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that the Rangers were comfortable with a two-year deal for Cruz, while he sought three from them.  Now we're in early January, and I'd bet against Cruz getting a third year from any team.  While a two-year deal may be viewed as underwhelming for Katz, it's worth noting that he doesn't control the ebb and flow of media and fan expectations, and it's possible Cruz never received a reasonable three-year offer.  Katz presumably did have a strong hand in Cruz's decision to turn down the Rangers' qualifying offer in November, which will be questioned if the outfielder falls short of Steve Adams' original guess of two years and $26MM.

There's a good reason why Santana, Garza, and Jimenez remain unsigned, and his name is Masahiro Tanaka.  Tanaka outranked all three in my top 50 free agents rankings published November 4th, and factors related to the revised Japanese posting system delayed the 25-year-old's true entry into free agency until the day after Christmas.  During the 2011-12 offseason, bids were due for Yu Darvish by December 14th, and the situation didn't stop C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle from signing strong contracts before then.  It was much more cut and dry with Darvish — the Rangers were revealed as the high bidder on December 19th, and all other interested parties could move on.  With Tanaka, it seems likely more than 20 teams pledged the newly-capped posting fee of $20MM, paid only by the club that signs the pitcher after a standard free agent free-for-all.  The process does have an end in sight, with a January 24th deadline in place.

Back in 2011, the Angels and Marlins had not been connected to Darvish prior to their signings of Wilson and Buehrle.  Conversely, Tanaka seems to be Plan A for many teams, and the would-be contenders that miss out on him probably will turn to Santana, Garza, and Jimenez.  The Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Yankees, Angels, and Mariners can't all get Tanaka, and it's possible none of them do, so demand could be strong for the Plan B trio even as the calendar turns to February.  Santana and Garza were expected to easily exceed Ricky Nolasco's four-year, $49MM deal (agreed to prior to Thanksgiving), while Jimenez seemed to have a good shot at a similar contract.  I'm sure their agents are unhappy about the way things have unfolded, and there's always a chance the bottom drops out on one of the three pitchers as budgets become settled and we approach time for pitchers and catchers to report in mid-February.  

In the end, there's room for good starting pitching on most teams, plus Tanaka could sign before January 24th.  I still expect Santana, Garza, and Jimenez to receive deals of three or more years, even though there's no precedent from the last five offseasons.

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Top Hot Stove Storylines Entering 2014

By Jeff Todd | January 1, 2014 at 11:42am CDT

An impressive flurry of activity before the Winter Meetings left some feeling that there would be little left to tackle before the 2014 season kicks off. And yet, while just seven of MLBTR's top fifty free agents were still available last time this year, fully twice that number remains this time around. Meanwhile, by this point in the 2013 offseason, David Wright and Evan Longoria had already entered huge new extensions. So far this year, however, only Hunter Pence's deal has approached those in magnitude, and he was set to hit the free agent market anyway.

All of which is to say that there is plenty of time left for major decisions before the start of the 2014 season. Here are a few of the most impactful situations to watch as we enter the new year:

Free Agency

Perhaps the biggest reason for the hold up in the current free agent market, of course, is the Masahiro Tanaka posting. With only a $20MM surcharge required for whatever team wins the bidding war, Tanaka is a virtual free agent. Given his open market status, young age, high-end billing, and complete lack of a MLB track record, his courtship will be fascinating and impactful. 

Tanaka's situation is not just interesting in its own right, however. Most of the top free agent starters remain available: chief among them, Matt Garza, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Ervin Santana. If they continue to wait and see where Tanaka lands, there could be an unprecedented rush for arms right on the precipice of Spring Training. Or, perhaps, one or more will break ranks earlier as the Tanaka market begins to clarify.

There are, of course, multiple other important players still available to the highest bidder. The markets for Stephen Drew, Nelson Cruz, and Kendrys Morales — constrained by the draft pick compensation they are tied to — will be interesting to track and could have a big impact on future qualifying offer situations. And A.J. Burnett could still bring big impact on a short-term commitment to the Pirates or, potentially, another destination. Finally, some club could well be in line to add a big arm to the back of its pen at a reasonable rate, with both Grant Balfour and Fernando Rodney still available.

Extensions

Between January 1 and Opening Day of last year, long-term extensions were signed by Elvis Andrus, Justin Verlander, Buster Posey, Paul Goldschmidt, and Adam Wainwright. Right now, there are several major potential extension targets whose situations seem ripe for resolution. 

To begin, baseball has several high-end arms entering their final year of team control. First amongst them, of course, is Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers, who could ultimately land one of (if not the) biggest contracts in MLB history. But he is not alone: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and Homer Bailey were all amongst the game's most valuable starters last year.

One team, in particular, faces an intricate set of decisions on its many viable externsion candidates: the Braves. First baseman Freddie Freeman; shortstop Andrelton Simmons; outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton; closer Craig Kimbrel; and starters like Kris Medlen, Mike Minor, and Julio Teheran. While each player comes with different service time and other considerations, there are arguments to be made for them all. Whether, when, and how Atlanta GM Frank Wren pursues extensions promises to have major long-term implications for the organization, especially given its budget constraints.

More pressing, perhaps, is the situation in Baltimore. The Orioles have two key younger players — Chris Davis and Matt Wieters — entering their second-to-last year of team control. As MLBTR's Mark Polishuk explains, the O's will face a challenging test in determining whether to make a serious run at either or both of the two Boras clients. If an extension is not in the cards, and Baltimore cannot stay in the thick of things in 2014, there is certainly a possibility that a trade could instead be in the works.

And then there is the most fascinating extension case of all: unprecedented superstar Mike Trout of the Angels. $400MM has been floated as a starting point for valuing a huge new deal for baseball's best player, who is still just 22 years of age. If Los Angeles wants to get any kind of break on the price, it may need to set negotiations in serious motion before Trout hits a big arbitration payday (and secures his financial future) after this season. Since the club can delay the luxury tax implications of an extension by waiting to put pen to paper until after Opening Day, look for things to heat up as the season draws nearer.

Trades

Some obvious trade candidates — like Ike Davis of the Mets — have been actively involved in trade talks of late. But after a series of big swaps in advance of and during the Winter Meetings, things have been much more quiet since with respect to some of baseball's biggest targets.

The most likely star to be traded, it would seem, is Rays ace David Price. While his market has been slow to develop, one must wonder whether some team will eventually decide to make a significant offer to bring him on board. With the aforementioned Scherzer, Lester, and Bailey all seemingly unlikely to be dealt at this point, and a free agent market filled with less appealing arms, Tampa still has plenty of leverage — particularly since the club could always hold onto Price if its demands aren't met.

Otherwise, it is not clear that any top-end talent is truly available by trade. Though plenty of speculation has visited Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins appear prepared to keep him in right field for at least one more year. In fact, as time goes on, it could well be that the chatter will begin to shift back towards whether the Fish can and will try to ink Stanton to an extension.

Other

The resolution of Alex Rodriguez's grievance hearing is still an important element of the overall market, given its impact on the Yankees' luxury cap and overall payroll situation. Even if keeping under the cap will now be a significant challenge, particularly if the Yanks sign Tanaka, New York can still save big dollars if the suspension is upheld.

—

The stage is set for a new year, with plenty of room to impact the outcome of the 2014 campaign. As always, MLBTR will be there every step of the way.

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Options In MLB Contracts: Overall Trends

By Jeff Todd | January 1, 2014 at 1:22am CDT

We often speak of contracts in terms of years and total guaranteed money. And, of course, that shorthand tells us most of what we need to know about a given deal. But every deal is individually negotiated, and most contain additional terms that can have a substantial impact on the risks and rewards applicable to both parties.

In particular, option years -– of varying type, duration, and value -– are a critical component of many contracts. While the function of options is fairly well understood, it seems worth taking a broad view of their employment across the league. To that end, I have compiled* and categorized (as best I can) every single contract containing an option that was entered into between the 2007-08 and 2012-13 “signing seasons.”

It was relatively easy to determine a signing season for free agency, which begins at the point at which exclusive negotiating rights end for a player's former team. For extensions, which are defined as new contracts entered with players that are not free to negotiate with other teams, I determined that a signing season would begin at Opening Day for a given season. While this is a somewhat arbitrary demarcation, it seemed unwise to attempt the subjective task of determining when a player had accrued enough innings or at-bats in a new season for a team to reassess that player. And this approach allows ready comparison to the free agent figures. While the resulting lines that I drew can skew the results somewhat, I hope that this breakdown will be sufficient for a preliminary analysis.

Overview

For starters, we’ll consider the overall use of options of all kinds. Between the 2007-08 and 2012-13 signing seasons, 726 guaranteed MLB free agent contracts were agreed upon, 196 (27.00%) of which came with options. Only two of those, so far as my research could identify, contained more than one option year: the deals signed by Kevin Gregg and Scott Atchison in the 2009-10 season. This table shows the figures by season for free agent contracts:

Article 1 free agent option table

Of the 301 extensions that were reached in that same time frame, 160 (53.16%) included options. Those 160 deals included a total of 202 option years, meaning that there were 1.26 option years for every deal that included some kind of option. This table shows the figures by season for extensions:

Article 1 extension option table

Clearly, and unsurprisingly, extensions are much more likely to come with options attached. Twice as likely, as it turns out. (And, as we'll see in a later installment, options in extensions are almost always straight club options.) Primarily, no doubt, that is a reflection of the fact that teams have much stronger bargaining positions with respect to players who have yet to qualify for free agency. The strongest motivations for teams guaranteeing future money for players who have yet to reach the open market are extending control, achieving cost savings, and obtaining cost certainty. In exchange for achieving such goals, teams often demand the right to achieve upside and retain flexibility in the event of injury or performance decline.

The 2009-10 Confluence

Of course, as the astute observer will note, there is one very interesting exception to the overall distribution: the 2009-10 season. As this chart shows, the sudden equalization of the use of options between free agent and extension contracts is quite out of line with the surrounding seasons:

Article 1 chart extension vs fa options

So, what is the explanation for that shift? The most obvious explanation would seem to be the broad international economic downturn, which added an element of uncertainty to all of baseball’s dealings. Prying an option year from a free agent can be expensive, and teams may have been less willing to commit cash to get the upside of an option. On the other hand, the risk and uncertainty hit players as well, which may have increased club leverage to demand options in the extension context.

Alternatively, or additionally, it could just be that early, market-setting deals paved the way for an odd year. Utilizing comparable contracts to set parameters for other deals can lower the transaction costs and even the perceived risks for parties. If the most relevant models for contract structures tended not to include options, there may have been a copycat effect.

The 2011-12 Multi-Option Boom

One other figure that stands out from the above tables is a seemingly aberrational year in terms of the number of option years per option contract in the extension bucket. Take a look:

Article 1 option years per option contract chart

For the 2011-12 signing season, the average option deal suddenly included over 1.5 option years. Three option years were agreed to with Salvador Perez, Sergio Santos, Jose Tabata, and Wade Davis. And a host of players, including Gio Gonzalez and Clay Buchholz, gave up two option years.

Once again, I am far from certain of the proper explanation for the shift. It could be (as noted above) that a few teams and agents simply followed early trend-setting deals. Once the extension market was established, players with around one service year tended to give up three option years while those with around two service years generally signed deals with two options.

Alternatively, industry financial trends may be the cause. Teams may have aggressively worked to extend control before anticipated TV revenue inflows changed market perceptions, choosing to make substantial guarantees in exchange for option years that cover free agent-eligible seasons. Or, somewhat alternatively, teams may have decided to commit portions of their expected new cash before it started to flow, utilizing it to lock up option years.

Whatever the reasons for it, the 2011-12 boom in lengthy option terms may have lent to the general industry perception that teams are increasingly locking up younger players to longer-term deals that enhance team control. But, as the graph shows, the numbers returned to approximately historical levels in the 2012-13 signing season. It will be interesting to see where things head moving forward.

—

Of course, it could be that options are such a negotiation-specific element that seeming patterns really tell us relatively little about how the market is moving. Either way, I hope that this broad look at recent option usage provides a reasonably useful descriptive account.

In the next installment on options, we will break things down by option type to look at how varying forms of options are utilized in the market.

*Starting from the MLBTR transaction and extension trackers, I built out the dataset by mining Cot's on Contracts, Cot's data on non-active players from Baseball Prospectus player cards, and ESPN.com's free agency tracker. I then supplemented those results with internet searches to resolve any conflicts among the various sources and to identify, to the extent possible, any missing information that may have fallen through the cracks. The MLBTR trackers will be updated to reflect the complete information utilized in this and future posts.

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Agents, Executives On Holiday Activity In Baseball

By Zachary Links | December 25, 2013 at 4:46pm CDT

So far, it has been an entertaining offseason in baseball littered with surprising trades and free agents landing lucrative deals thanks to the influx of new TV money across MLB.  However, there tends to be less deals consummated during the holidays and (never say never, but) we're not likely to see a major transaction go down on Christmas.  That doesn't mean that the business of baseball magically comes to a screeching halt, however.  Agents and executives are still sending texts and making calls as they enjoy Christmas and New Year's Eve with their families.

"When I've had a free agent negotiation in progress, I can recall times that I have been talking to a GM in the back of my in-laws house while he was at the back of his in-laws house," said agent Joe Longo of Paragon Sports International, a firm that represents Mike Napoli, Sergio Santos, and other notable big leaguers.

"We all have families and we're all trying to celebrate the holidays but sometimes you just have to get an update on a free agent when there are four or five teams you're talking to.  Luckily, my family is really understanding.  My wife gets it."

For Giants Vice President Bobby Evans, there's "never a complete shutdown" on business and he told MLBTR last week that his front office will continue to be active through the holiday season.

"There are still quite a few guys out there so I wouldn't be surprised if there was some activity.  Some of it can be put to the side and kept quieter until after the day of Christmas or the New Year but there's still goint to be activity, there are just too many options out there," Evans said, while noting that, in his case, the Giants have already taken care of most of their Christmas shopping list and will instead focus on minor league pickups from this point forward.

While everyone acknowledges that the holidays are a slower time, agent Burton Rocks says that he finds that the stretch between Christmas and New Year's Eve can be a springboard for future activity.  Deals that have stalled, he notes, can be rekindled by reaching out to an executive and wishing them happy holidays.

Meanwhile, one prominent agent says he'll be focusing on negotiations for his arbitration-eligible clients during the holidays.  Of course, he acknowledges that it's still possible for something to come out of left field for one of his free agents before the ball drops.  Things may be a bit quieter during the holidays, but every agent and GM will be keeping their phones handy during their downtime.

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Seeking Part-Time Writers For New NFL Rumors Website

By Luke Adams 2 | December 20, 2013 at 12:37am CDT

We're launching a new NFL rumors website early in 2014, in the mold of MLB Trade Rumors and Hoops Rumors. I will be the site's full-time writer and editor, and we're looking to build a team of part-time contributors who will be paid hourly. The criteria:

  • Exceptional knowledge of all 32 NFL teams, with no discernible bias. Knowledge of transaction-related concepts.
  • Extensive writing experience is necessary with professional experience preferred. A background in journalism is a plus.
  • Attention to detail — absolutely no spelling errors, especially for player and journalist names. Ability to follow the site's style and tone.
  • Ability to analyze articles and craft intelligent, well-written posts summing up the news in a few paragraphs. We need the best of both worlds: quick writing with thoughtful analysis. You must be able to add value to breaking news with your own insight, numbers, or links to other relevant articles.
  • Ability to use an RSS feed reader such as Feedly. Ability to use Twitter. Both of these are crucial.
  • Strong evening availability — typically 5-11pm central time shifts. Writers covering Monday through Friday evenings will change week to week, but we'd also like people to regularly take specific weekend daytime shifts.
  • At least some college education is required.
  • If you're interested, email footballapplications@gmail.com and take a couple paragraphs to explain how you qualify and stand out. Many will likely apply, so unfortunately we cannot respond to all applications.
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Free Agent Regulars Hard To Find

By Tim Dierkes | December 16, 2013 at 4:46pm CDT

33 players from MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list have signed, and with ample time remaining in the offseason, regulars are difficult to come by at most positions.  Let's take a closer look.

  • At catcher, Brian McCann, Carlos Ruiz, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Pierzynski, and Dioner Navarro have found homes with contracts worth at least $8MM.  Additionally, the Rangers have assembled their tandem behind the dish by re-signing Geovany Soto and adding J.P. Arencibia.  No starting catchers remain in free agency.  Cuban catcher Yenier Bello will likely become a free agent soon, but it's unclear whether any teams view him as a potential regular.
  • At first base, Jose Abreu, Mike Napoli, James Loney, Justin Morneau, Garrett Jones, and Corey Hart have signed.  The key remaining free agent here is Kendrys Morales, who has draft pick compensation attached and has not played 500 innings at first base since 2009.  Though the draft pick may continue to scare teams off, there is certainly a price at which some should be willing to surrender one to sign Morales.  The idea of the Scott Boras client as a regular first baseman is dicey, though.  Players like Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Michael Young, and Casey McGehee are imperfect solutions as regular first basemen, but they at least merit consideration.
  • At second base, Robinson Cano, Omar Infante, Alexander Guerrero, Rafael Furcal, and Mark Ellis are off the board, as well as Kelly Johnson, Willie Bloomquist, Skip Schumaker, and Nick Punto.  36-year-old Brian Roberts looks like the closest thing to a regular on the free agent market, and he hasn't played 80 games since '09.
  • At shortstop, Derek Jeter never reached free agency, and the Cardinals signed Jhonny Peralta for $53MM.  Another Boras client with draft pick compensation attached, Stephen Drew, remains unsigned.  If Morales and Drew wind up with disappointing contracts, expect Boras to ramp up his public disgust with the qualifying offer system.  One wild card at shortstop is Cuban Aledmys Diaz, who will be eligible to sign as of February 19th.  Another Cuban name to watch is the defensive-minded Erisbel Arruebarruena.
  • At third base, Juan Uribe resembled a regular, and he has re-signed with the Dodgers.  Young might be considered a possible regular at third base after tallying almost 900 innings there in 2013.  McGehee, Youkilis, and Reynolds could be options for some teams to play semi-regularly at the hot corner, as well as Eric Chavez.
  • We won't list all the corner outfielders who have signed, but teams seeking a starter in right or left field do have options in free agency.  Shin-Soo Choo and Nelson Cruz are still looking for homes and are viewed as difference-makers.  Raul Ibanez hit 29 home runs and played over 800 innings in left field, so he might be viewed as a regular corner option by some teams.
  • Top center field option Jacoby Ellsbury has signed.  While Choo played center in 2013, most teams view him as a corner guy.  A healthy Franklin Gutierrez could re-emerge as a regular in center field, but that seems like a long shot.
  • Among DH options, we have Morales and Ibanez.  We heard last month Lance Berkman is leaning toward retirement, though nothing is official.
  • In terms of clear regulars, the current free agent market features just five players: one shortstop in Drew, two corner outfielders in Choo and Cruz, and two DH options in Morales and Ibanez.  
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MLB, NPB Announce Agreement On New Posting System

By Steve Adams | December 16, 2013 at 3:15pm CDT

Major League Baseball and Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they have officially agreed on a new posting system, tweets ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. The new agreement will be in place for three years.

Reports last week indicated that the two sides would have a conference call today to ratify the new system, which will cap the posting fee for a player at $20MM and allow all teams that tie for the highest bid to negotiate with the posted player. The new rules, according to an MLB release, are as follows:

  • If an NPB Club wishes to make one of its players available to Major League Clubs, the NPB shall notify the Office of the Commissioner of the NPB player's potential availability and the "release fee" that a Major League Club must pay to the NPB Club in order to secure the NPB player's release. The NPB Club may not set a release fee at an amount higher than $20 million and the fee cannot be changed once it has been set by an NPB Club.
  • The Office of the Commissioner shall then "post" the NPB player's availability by notifying all Major League Clubs of the NPB player's availability and the release fee sought by the NPB Club.
  • All "postings" of NPB players must be made between November 1 and February 1.
  • Beginning the day after the player is posted, and concluding 30 days later, any Major League Club willing to pay the release fee set by the NPB Club may then negotiate with the player in an attempt to reach agreement on a contract.
  • If a Major League Club is able to reach an agreement on a contract with the posted NPB player, the Major League Club must pay the NPB Club the designated release fee, which will occur in installments, the timing of which depends on the size of the release fee.
  • If the posted NPB player fails to reach an agreement with a Major League Club, the release fee is not owed, the NPB player remains under reserve to his NPB Club, and the player may not be posted again until the following November 1.
  • The term of the new posting agreement is three years, continuing from year-to-year thereafter until either the Office of the Commissioner or NPB gives of its intent to terminate the agreement 180 days prior to the anniversary of the commencement of the agreement.

The biggest immediate impact presented by the new posting system will be felt when the Rakuten Golden Eagles decide whether or not to post ace Masahiro Tanaka. The 25-year-old has long been thought to be up for grabs this offseason, but the new rules don't sit well with the Golden Eagles ownership, as they'd been in line for a posting fee worth $75MM or more under the old system. Rakuten will reportedly talk to Tanaka this week to make their decision, but recent indications seem to point toward them keeping Tanaka for another year and possible posting him next season. Assistant GM Aki Sasaki recently told reporters that he does not think a $20MM posting fee is a fair trade for Tanaka.

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$5,000 Weekly Fantasy Football Contest From DraftStreet

By Tim Dierkes | December 14, 2013 at 2:04am CDT

Frozen out of your fantasy football playoffs?  No problem!  You can still be one of 135 people who will earn a piece of the $5,000 prize pool in our Week 15 league at DraftStreet.

DraftStreet is adding an extra $1,000 to the prize pool to help line your pockets this holiday season. It costs just $11 to join, but it's only open to the first 400 people who sign up. So get in early and win some money!

You have until Sunday at 1:00pm eastern time to create your team.  You're given a $100K salary cap, and each player is assigned a price by DraftStreet.  Your roster will cover these positions: 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 FLEX, and 1 Defense.  You get points based on how your team performs through Monday night's game.  The teams with the most points get the prize money.  It's extremely easy to put together a team.  Below is a screenshot of my roster:

Pic

If you're interested, sign up and create a roster prior to Sunday's games (1:00pm eastern time).  It's quick, easy, fun.  If you enjoy the competition you can try other leagues for free and earn credits, or deposit real money. 

This post is sponsored by DraftStreet.

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