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Arbitration Eligibles: Washington Nationals

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Nationals are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Zimmermann posted the best season of his career in 2013, with 213 1/3 innings of 3.25 ball.  He also tied for the NL lead with 19 wins, a number that looks great in arbitration especially with a previous career high of 12.  He had Tommy John surgery in August of 2009, and beginning in 2011 posted full season ERAs of 3.18, 2.94, and 3.25.  Zimmermann picked up his first All-Star nod this year as well.  It's difficult to find a hole in his arbitration case, and a hefty raise is in order for his third time through.  Four years ago, Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez signed five-year deals in the $80MM range.  Having been a Super Two player, Zimmermann would probably require at least $85MM over five years.  The price has gone up since last year, with negotiations expected with the Nationals this winter.  The righty told MLB.com's Bill Ladson in August, "I like it here. Obviously, it's the only place that I know. It would be nice to stay long term, but it has to be something fair. I'm just not going to do a team-friendly deal just to stay here long term. If it's a fair deal, then obviously, we'll definitely think about it. But I'm not going to give a huge team discount. Just something fair is all I ask."

Desmond is another extension candidate, after proving 2012 was no fluke by putting up another 20 home run season and duplicating that year's 5.0 wins above replacement.  Like Zimmermann, Desmond hasn't jumped at a team-friendly offer yet, and his price tag continues to rise.  Elvis Andrus doesn't have much on Desmond aside from age, and he inked an eight-year, $120MM extension with the same amount of service time as Desmond.  That contract covered all free agent years, since the Rangers had already locked up Andrus' arbitration seasons, and also includes opt-outs after the fourth and fifth years.  Andrus doesn't have Desmond's power, so it's hard to consider them a match.  On the other hand, Desmond isn't in Troy Tulowitzki territory.  I think one way or another, the Nationals will have to go past $100MM to lock up their shortstop long-term, especially if Desmond insists on receiving eight guaranteed years like Andrus did.

Having compiled 110 holds and 33 saves in his career, Clippard continues to climb up the arbitration ladder.  His projected $6.2MM salary is in the range a quality free agent setup man might receive.  While he's under control for 2015 as well, his salary at that point will be no bargain.  Clippard has given the Nationals five solid seasons, and I wonder if this calls for the old mantra of trading a player a year early rather than a year late.  Clippard might still bring solid value on the trade market, especially if an older reliever like Grant Balfour gets something like $18MM over two years.

Another reason Clippard could be on the move is the comments he made in July regarding the Nationals' handling of his friend and fellow reliever Storen.  "I just think it’s been handled very poorly," Clippard told reporters of Storen's demotion to Triple-A.  Storen himself could be dealt instead after posting a 4.52 ERA in 2013.  He did, however, manage a 1.40 ERA in 19 1/3 innings after his recall in mid-August.

Continuing the Nationals' list of big-name arbitration cases, Strasburg is up for the first time following 183 innings of 3.00 ball, in a season that included forearm tightness and a DL stint for a lat strain.  A mere eight wins on the season serves to limit his salary, and the budding ace will remain affordable in the near-term.  Technically, we would have projected him at $3.4MM had he not earned $3.9MM in 2012, so we expect little to no raise.  The Nats control Strasburg through 2016, at which point the Boras client might pursue a big free agent payday at age 28.

A strained oblique and a back strain limited Detwiler to 13 starts, with his last one coming on July 3rd.  His arbitration salary is justified, though the Nats could slot Tanner Roark and a free agent into the fourth and fifth slots in the 2014 rotation and move Detwiler.

Ramos is in good standing as the team's starting catcher, though a recurring hamstring injury limited him to 78 games on the season.  He still hit a career-best 16 home runs.  If the Nats can handle the injury risk, they could try to steal Ramos' arbitration years at $10MM or less, as happened with Nick Hundley, Carlos Ruiz, and Chris Iannetta.

Ohlendorf joined the organization on a minor league deal in January, having his contract purchased in June and staying on as a swingman thereafter but spending time on the DL in August for a shoulder injury.  He was pretty good overall in 60 1/3 innings, probably enough so to be tendered a contract.

Assuming Zimmermann, Desmond, Clippard, Storen, Strasburg, Detwiler, Ramos, and Ohlendorf are tendered contracts, the Nationals are looking at an estimated $37.3MM for eight arbitration eligible players.

NL East Notes: Mets, Abreu, Marlins, Nats, Baker

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The Mets were said to be intrigued by Jose Dariel Abreu's power but ultimately, they weren't one of the finalists for him and they weren't the team to sign him.  Why didn't GM Sandy Alderson take the plunge?  The Mets figure that they have first base covered between Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, and Josh Satin with possible support from Daniel Murphy and Wilmer Flores, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.  The Mets weren't the only team in their division intrigued by the Serie Nacional star, however.  Here's more out of the NL East..

  • The Marlins were among the finalists for the Cuban slugger, but they bowed out of the bidding when it went north of $60MM, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.  The Red Sox, Astros, Rangers, and Giants were also said to be among the clubs in the mix this week.
  • The Nationals had interest in Abreu, but the dollar amount got "crazy" in their view, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post (Twitter link). 
  • Dusty Baker isn't expected to be a candidate for the Nationals' managerial job, Kilgore tweets.  Baker contacted GM Mike Rizzo last week about his interest in the position but there doesn't seem to be any interest on Washington's end.
  • A talent evaluator with knowledge of the Nationals' manager search tells ESPN's Buster Olney (Twitter link) that he would be shocked if Diamondbacks third base coach Matt Williams isn't hired.
  • Braves GM Frank Wren recognizes that he needs to add experience to his rotation, writes MLB.com's Mark Bowman.  Atlanta considered making a play for Jake Peavy at the trade deadline but those thoughts quickly fizzled when it became apparent that they didn't have the pieces necessary to close that deal.

Managerial/Coaching Notes: Adair, Rothschild, Williams

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As is the case at the end of every season, there have been quite a few shakeups to coaching staffs around the game. Here's the latest on several situations around the league…

  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that Rick Adair will not return as the Orioles pitching coach in 2014. Bullpen coach Bill Castro, who was named the team's interim pitching coach when Adair left the team to be with his dying father, is unlikely to be a candidate. The same goes for rehab coordinator Scott McGregor. The rest of the coaching staff will return, according to Kubatko.
  • The Yankees and pitching coach Larry Rothschild have agreed to terms on a new deal, though nothing has been finalized or announced yet, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.
  • Kilgore tweets that the Nationals interviewed Diamondbacks third base coach Matt Williams for their managerial opening recently.

Earlier Updates

  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Angels have hired Don Baylor as their hitting coach. The 64-year-old Baylor has served as the D-Backs' hitting coach since 2011 and has 21 years of coaching experience to go along with a 19-year playing career that saw him take home AL MVP honors when he played for the Angels in 1979. Arizona had asked him to return for 2014, but the Halos have announced that Baylor opted to take the position in Anaheim.
  • Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times points out some history between Angels GM Jerry Dipoto and Baylor, noting that Baylor was Dipoto's manager when Dipoto served as the Rockies' closer in 1997-98 (Twitter link).
  • The Blue Jays nearing a deal with former Royals hitting coach Kevin Seitzer to fill the same role in Toronto, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (on Twitter). Seitzer, a career .295/.375/.404 hitter in a 12-year big league career, has experience working with Blue Jays manager John Gibbons. Gibbons served as the Royals' bench coach for part of Seitzer's tenure with the club.
  • Brad Ausmus is on the list of Nationals' managerial candidates, tweets Ken Rosenthal. Rosenthal notes that it's unclear whether or not Ausmus has interviewed, though Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post indicated that the interview has yet to take place (also via Twitter).
  • Kilgore writes in a full article for the Post that as of late last week, the Nats have yet to conduct any interviews. Bench coach Randy Knorr and third base coach Trent Jewett are still the strongest internal candidates, says Kilgore.
  • Arash Markazi of ESPN Los Angeles provides readers with several quotes from Angels skipper Mike Scioscia's appearance on ESPNLA 710 radio. Scioscia says that he and Dipoto went through a series of "aggressive" meetings with ownership before they were informed they would return for the 2014 season. Scioscia said there's "no doubt" that he's on the same page as ownership and the front office after those talks.

East Notes: Red Sox, Rays, Ripken

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Red Sox free agents will be key to this year's market, but Boston's decisions about which players they'll extend qualifying offers will strongly affect the market as well, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. Jacoby Ellsbury will, obviously, almost certainly receive a qualifying offer. Sherman also expects that Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jarrod Saltalamacchia will, and qualifying offers would significantly dampen the market for those three players. Teams will not want to forfeit draft picks to sign Napoli, Drew or Saltalamacchia, who, as free agents, would likely receive less per year than the $14.1MM qualifying offer, even if draft pick forfeiture didn't exist. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • The Rays face a number of tough decisions this offseason, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. At the center of their offseason, of course, is pitcher David Price, who is set to receive a raise on his $10.1MM 2013 contract in arbitration. Assuming the Rays pick up their options on Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar, they'll have an additional $23.6MM tied up in those two plus Evan Longoria, Joel Peralta and Matt Moore. Add in ten more arbitration-eligible players, nine free agents and what's likely to still be a very low 2014 budget, and Andrew Friedman and the Rays' front office are likely to have their hands full this winter.
  • Hiring Cal Ripken to replace the retiring Davey Johnson as manager would be a bad idea for the Nationals, Mike Harris of the Washington Times writes. Harris argues that the Nats don't need to make a flashy choice for their managerial job. They don't need a manager who will receive tons of media attention (even if he doesn't ask for it). Instead, what they need is a manager with experience, and while Ripken might be a good manager once he has experience, he doesn't have it yet. Nats bench coach Randy Knorr and Diamondbacks third base coach Matt Williams would be better choices, Harris says.

NL Notes: Rockies, Pirates, Mets, Managerial Searches

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The NLCS is taking a day off as the scene shifts to Los Angeles for Game 3 tomorrow night with the Cardinals leading the Dodgers 2-0. Here is the latest news and notes out of the National League today:

  • The Rockies need to improve their talent acquisition via the draft and Latin America in order to overcome the crushing injuries suffered in recent seasons, according to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. Tim Hudson, whose free agency was profiled this past week by MLBTR's Steve Adams, would make a perfect middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Rockies, Renck opines.
  • The Pirates' payroll will increase significantly in 2014 aiding their efforts to retain free agents Marlon Byrd and A.J. Burnett while also trying to sign Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez to long-term extensions, reports the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Rob Biertempfel.  
  • The Mets will face a dilemma with their 40-man roster when it comes time to protect minor league players from the Rule 5 draft, reports ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin. The Mets' 40-man roster is currently full and will be so again once the eight players on the 60-day disabled list replace the eight pending free agents on the 40-man. Jordany Valdespin headlines Rubin's list of eight Mets who could lose their roster spot.
  • The Reds' managerial search is centered on pitching coach Bryan Price and Triple-A manager Jim Riggleman, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Fay expects Price to get the job; but, if neither candidate impresses ownership in upcoming interviews, the search may be expanded.
  • Nationals third-base coach Trent Jewett has an excellent shot to become the team's next manager, reports ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider subscription required).

Cafardo On Price, BoSox, Granderson, Loney, Dodgers

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While David Price has resigned himself to being traded, the Rays appear to be trying to figure out ways to make their ace the focal point of their pitching staff for many years to come, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Cafardo notes, however, the Rays' front office realizes it could be a losing battle, so a trade is likely with nearly half of baseball rumored to be interested in the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. "It's a big name, a big-time pitcher," one National League GM told Cafardo. "Even if you feel you don't need that level of pitcher, you look into it because he's so special and such a game changer. You do more than kick the tires. You try to make something happen, and I think you'll see teams that don't even need him step up." Here's more from Cafardo's column:

  • The Red Sox will likely trade one of their veteran starters to make room for their young arms. Cafardo suggests Jon Lester and Jake Peavy could be available while Ryan Dempster, John Lackey, and Felix Doubront are also vulnerable.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury is a perfect fit for the Mariners and Carlos Beltran likewise for the Orioles.
  • Curtis Granderson will likely receive a qualifying offer from the Yankees and there's a strong possibility he would take it because he could post his biggest numbers at Yankee Stadium.
  • The Dodgers will make Andre Ethier and/or Matt Kemp available this winter. Kemp will come with injury concerns, but that shouldn't prevent a team from taking a chance on his talent.
  • James Loney has rebuilt his value with a strong season in Tampa (.299/.348/.430 with a 2.1 oWAR in 158 games and 598 plate appearances). Loney could find a market with the Rangers, if the Rays don't re-sign the free agent first baseman.
  • Reds pitching coach Bryan Price appears to be the front-runner to replace Dusty Baker as manager in Cincinnati while Nationals bench coach Randy Knorr is in a strong position to take over from Davey Johnson, unless ownership wants a bigger name as its new manager.

NL East Notes: Nats, Papelbon, Mayberry, Marlins

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MLB.com's Bill Ladson recently broke down the Nationals roster, taking a look at players who would stay, those with something to prove, those who will depart and those who could be traded. Dan Haren and Chad Tracy are "all but gone," in Ladson's estimation, who feels that the team's primary trade chips are Danny Espinosa, Drew Storen and Eury Perez. Interestingly, Ladson lists Anthony Rendon as a possible trade centerpiece should the Nationals make a run at acquiring David Price, who expects to be traded this winter. Here's more out of the NL East…

  • Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News looks at the bullpens of the remaining playoff teams in contrast to that of the Phillies, noting that the quartet of relief corps that are still pitching serve as a primary example as to why paying Jonathan Papelbon $13MM annually was unnecessary. The Phillies would be well-served to reassess their scouting department in order to bring in evaluators capable of finding arms like Paco Rodriguez in the draft, opines Lawrence, who notes how mightily the team has struggled to develop relievers.
  • In a separate piece, Lawrence writes that it's time for the Phillies to part ways with John Mayberry Jr. now that the team has better bench options. With GM Ruben Amaro Jr. stating that Darin Ruf isn't likely to be an everyday player, Lawrence feels that Ruf should assume Mayberry's role of a powerful righty bench bat. Mayberry will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $1.7MM salary for the soon-to-be 30-year-old.
  • After naming Frank Menechino the new hitting coach, the Marlins will look to create an organization-wide philosophy and approach at the plate, writes MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. The Fish may yet look to add a second hitting coach/instructor as well. Newly crowned GM Dan Jennings tells Frisaro that by Spring Training, he hopes to have input from all over the organization to create a new "Marlins Way" or "Marlins Mindset" in their hitters.

NL East Notes: Nationals, Phillies, Braves, Marlins

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo wants his club's new manager to chime in on personnel choices over the off-season, writes MLB.com's Bill Ladson, but the team has yet to conduct any interviews and will not rush the process. Here are a few more notes from Nats Town and the rest of the NL East …

  • After accounting for arbitration-eligible players, the Nationals will probably enter the off-season with about $114MM already committed to payroll, reasons James Wagner of the Washington Post. That already-tall figure could actually understate things. The aggregate $33.7MM that Wagner allocates for arbitration falls about $6MM shy of the projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. In particular, Swartz expects starter Jordan Zimmermann to leap all the way up to $10.5MM in his second year of eligibility, and sees big paydays for both set-up man Tyler Clippard ($6.2MM) and shortstop Ian Desmond ($6.9MM).
  • Desmond, along with Zimmermann, has long been considered an extension candidate. Now entering his second-to-last year of arb-eligibility after grossing 10 fWAR over the last two seasons (a full two wins better than the next-rated shortstop), Desmond's price is likely to continue going up. That makes it a good time to lock him up to a long-term deal, reasons Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com.
  • While it may be tempting to attribute a major share of the Phillies' lost season to Roy Halladay's struggles, David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News notes that every National League playoff club suffered an approximately similar loss of top-flight pitching. The ways to surmount such difficulties, he says, are to develop pitching depth in the upper minors, find value in free agency, and be unafraid to roll the dice on some players. The net for Philadelphia, according to Murphy, is that the club must cross its fingers on its top young pitchers, go after a turnaround candidate in the Francisco Liriano mold, and add multiple starting options in free agency.
  • One major wild card is already seemingly entrenched in the Philly rotation: international free agent signee Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez. As Philadelphia Inquirer colunist Bob Brookover reports, the 27-year-old is working in the Phils' Florida complex to establish a big league routine and build up strength for his first Spring Training.
  • The major question marks facing the Braves are whether to bring back pitcher Tim Hudson and what to do with struggling, high-priced second baseman Dan Uggla, writes Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Bowman wonders if Atlanta might try to move Uggla, swallowing a big chunk of the $26MM that the 33-year-old is still owed. He also suggests that the team could push for a trade for a top-flight starter like David Price. As things stand, says Bowman, it appears that the Braves have the capacity to add something in the neighborhood of $15-20MM via free agency or trade.
  • The Marlins have announced their 2014 coaching staff, including two new faces in hitting coach Frank Menechino and third base coach Brett Butler, the team announced on Twitter. As the Miami Herald's Clark Spencer notes, both additions carved out nice careers in the bigs. In particular, Butler accumulated somewhere between forty and fifty wins above replacement, depending upon whom you believe, over his 17-year career. The outfielder posted only a .376 lifetime slugging percentage, but his on-base percentage exceeded that mark by one hundredth of a point. He had served as the manager of the Diamondbacks' Triple-A affiliate for the last five years.

NL East Notes: Nationals, Choo, Pierre, Johan

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The latest out of the National League East…

  • Dusty Baker reached out to Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo to inform him that he's interested in taking over as the Nats manager with Davey Johnson stepping down, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Baker said that no interview has been scheduled, and Rizzo declined to comment on the Nats' managerial search. Kilgore adds that the Nationals may prefer a younger manager to replace Johnson, who was the oldest skipper in the Majors this season at age 70.
  • Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio tweets that the Nationals are giving serious consideration to Cal Ripken Jr. as a managerial candidate.
  • Matt Meyers of ESPNNewYork.com provides a case against the Mets' expected pursuit of Shin-Soo Choo, opining that Choo is a prime candidate to become the next Jason Bay in New York. Choo is much more likely to decline than maintain his production, writes Meyers, adding that Choo would be leaving an environment that favors his skill set for one that would diminish it.
  • Juan Pierre wants to keep playing but realizes that 2013 might have been his last season, writes MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. Pierre is grateful to the Marlins for both of his stints with the team and says he would be interested in returning if they would like to re-sign him.
  • Johan Santana isn't ruling out a return to the Mets, but the two sides haven't talked, agent Chris Leible told Jorge Castillo of the Star-Ledger. Santana resumed throwing last week and expects to be ready for Spring Training. GM Sandy Alderson said two weeks ago that he wouldn't rule out a return for Santana.

Blue Jays Notes: Mottola, Santos, Catchers, Gose

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The Blue Jays' decision to fire hitting coach Chad Mottola yesterday made him a curious scapegoat for the team's 2013 failures, opines Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Davidi points out that Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie (who hit .283/.346/.417 in the second half) all made positive strides under Mottola, who was in his first season as a Major League coach. Here's more on the Blue Jays…

  • Sergio Santos' contract no longer looks as team-friendly as it once did, but the Blue Jays aren't missing Nestor Molina, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Molina has struggled with the White Sox since being sent to Chicago in exchange for Santos, and Santos' final two months were healthy and dominant. Santos tells Nicholson-Smith that his goal for 2014 is to stay healthy, which will be a key if he's to have any chance at seeing his $6MM option exercised.
  • Starting pitching is still the team's top priority this offseason, but an upgrade at catcher has leapfrogged left field for the team's No. 2 priority, writes MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm in his latest Blue Jays Inbox. Chisolm notes that the free agent market will be expensive and competitive and adds that the Jays are interested in Wilson Ramos of the Nationals, though he would be an expensive trade target himself (in terms of prospects). Still, Chisolm writes that GM Alex Anthopoulos "seems determined" to make an upgrade behind the dish.
  • Anthony Gose could slot into the fourth outfielder role that will open up with Rajai Davis' departure, but Chisolm notes that he's also one of the team's top trade chips. Gose could also move into a starting role should a starting outfielder be traded.
  • The Blue Jays felt that Emilio Bonifacio couldn't handle playing the infield on the turf at the Rogers' Centre due to his poor footwork and limited range, writes Chisholm, which is why they essentially gave him to the Royals. He'd have been non-tendered this winter, Chisholm adds.
  • Chisolm also addresses the free agent market, noting that the Jays aren't likely to break their policy of limiting free agent deals to five years this offseason and aren't likely to pursue a Roy Halladay reunion as they need more certainty in a starting pitching acquisition.
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