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Nationals Sign Belliard To Extension

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More on this in a bit, but the Nationals have surprisingly locked in Ron Belliard through 2009.  He’ll get $3.5MM over the two seasons, so you can’t really complain about it.  Belliard hits for decent average, shows a little pop, and plays multiple positions.

Belliard will make $1.6MM in 2008 and $1.9MM in 2009.  Nice security for a guy nobody wanted last winter. 

Rockies Hunting For Relief Help

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Playoff odds reports put the Rockies’ chances at 6-8% currently, but they still view themselves as buyers.  After all, they’re still just 4.5 games out of the Wild Card and 5.5 games out in the NL West.

Though a crude metric, the Rockies’ bullpen currently ranks 12th in the NL with a 4.42 ERA.  Among contenders in the league, only Philadelphia has been worse.  Brian Fuentes seems at least another week or two from returning.   According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd has been burning up the phone lines looking for a reliever.  Renck says the Rockies have inquired on Jon Rauch, Chad Cordero, Akinori Otsuka, Julian Tavarez, and Manny Delcarmen.

Of that list, only Rauch or Cordero are clearly available and would help the team.  Otsuka is hurt, Delcarmen is cheap and an essential part of the Boston bullpen, and Tavarez isn’t a great pitcher.  However, both Rauch and Cordero are flyball pitchers and may not succeed at Coors Field.  Given the high price for either, the Rockies don’t have any attractive options.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Nats After Dunn

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Ken Rosenthal’s got a new column up; let’s dive in.

  • Fun new rumor: the Nationals are pursuing Adam Dunn.  Huh?  Makes no sense on the surface.  Jim Bowden’s possible motivation would be to sign Dunn long-term and make him the cornerstone of the franchise.  If he fails at that, all would not be lost given the draft pick compensation.  Rosenthal says the market for Dunn beyond Washington is a bit foggy – the Twins, Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, and Padres could all get involved but none stand out.
  • Rosenthal adds some color to my recent Nationals post.  He mentions that Ron Belliard is a name that might interest the Mets, an idea that has come up before.  Rosenthal says the Mets will not do a Lastings Milledge for Chad Cordero trade.
  • The Dodgers have jumped to the forefront on Octavio Dotel, with Takashi Saito ailing.  According to Rosenthal, the Royals aren’t demanding the very specific bounty Joel Sherman claimed.  Instead, they just want a near MLB-ready player.  Rosenthal says Tony Abreu is out of reach but Chin-Lung Hu might not be.  He suggests moving Hu to second base to accomodate Tony Pena Jr., which should probably be reversed.   It appears the Indians wouldn’t surrender Franklin Gutierrez or Ben Francisco for Dotel.  I’d give one up, personally.
  • I didn’t know this: Jermaine Dye can veto a deal to four clubs.  With his solid play, interest is picking up.  As are Kenny Williams’ demands; he wants an elite prospect.  The Indians and Red Sox have inquired; the Cubs might make sense too.  I thought we had ruled out the Red Sox earlier though.
  • The Padres are looking for bench help, perhaps in the name of Ryan Klesko, Mike Piazza, Mark Loretta, or Mike Lamb.  Couple of prodigal sons there.  Would Piazza be happy as a pricey bench player?  Rosenthal says Matt Stairs isn’t available.  Why not?

Nationals Looking To Deal

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MLB.com’s Bill Ladson has the lowdown on the Washington Nationals.  They’ve got several pieces they’re looking to move.

Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch remain popular names on the market, but it still seems like Jim Bowden is holding out for something amazing.  Ladson says Bowden is asking the Mets for Lastings Milledge and Mike Pelfrey in a deal.  It is known that the Mets would move Pelfrey in a major trade (per Jayston Stark).  Pelfrey would be a great guy for the Nats to acquire; they really need some MLB-ready pitching depth.  Another name on the Nats’ radar is Double A righty Kevin Mulvey of the Mets – they were openly scouting him on Thursday.

Cordero is aware of the rumors, and will move into a setup role for another team graciously.  He hopes to stay in Washington though.

Ladson also says Ryan Church is being offered up; contenders would use him as a fourth outfielder. Church has been connected to the Cubs in the past, but I don’t think they’d go for him now.  He’s at .262/.342/.420 this year, good fourth outfielder numbers.  He’s capable of knocking 3-4 homers a month.

Finally, Ladson mentions that the Nationals recently scouting the Tigers’ Double A Erie affiliate.  The SeaWolves’ more interesting prospects include Jair Jurrjens, Dallas Trahern, and Jeff Larish.  It is known that the Nats were watching Jurrjens’ last start.     

Joel Sherman’s Ten Trade Candidates

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post has an article today regarding ten veterans who may be traded this month.  He’s packed the column full of insider info beyond the ten players highlighted; check it out.

  • Mark Teixeira is now more likely to be dealt than Eric Gagne.  Sherman sees the Angels as perhaps the best possibility here; they’d have to include Casey Kotchman.  I imagine Ervin Santana’s stock is down far enough that the Rangers would not settle for the two.
  • The Indians appear to be out on Gagne but the Tigers still make sense for all parties.  Would Todd Jones graciously step down from his closer post?  Detroit’s bullpen has actually been doing well lately.
  • The Royals want a righthanded-hitting center fielder in return for Octavio Dotel.  Now that’s a tall order.  Sherman names Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez as two who fit the bill, but such a trade would require young talent like Zack Greinke coming back to the Mets.  Just speculating, but Melky Cabrera and Reggie Willits also fit the Royals’ need.
  • Apparently the Mariners and Braves are "very interested’ in Dmitri Young.  That’s the first I’ve heard of a team besides Atlanta inquiring.
  • Oddly, the Devil Rays appear to have some interest in Kyle Farnsworth if the money can be worked out.  They like Scott Proctor as well, so keep an eye on that Ty Wigginton rumor.  Sherman mentions that the market is heavy with available role players, so look for a lot of boring deals with that type of player.  Just kidding, trade rumors are never boring.  Sherman tosses out Tadahito Iguchi to the Padres; that’s a fresh one.
  • Sherman runs down all of the available relievers we already know about.  Throw Kiko Calero in there as a new name. 

Decision Time On Dmitri Young

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The time has come for the Nationals to decide whether to trade their All-Star first baseman, Dmitri Young.  He’s arguably their best player this year, but he’s a free agent after the season and might yield a solid prospect.

Phil Wood would like to retain Young, and even sign him to a multiyear free agent contract.  He extols Young’s virtues as a "personable, productive, and solid candidate for comeback-player-of-the-year honors." 

Young’s 180 in public perception comes as quite a surprise to me.  In April of ’06 he choked a 21 year-old woman and faced a domestic violence charge.  An arrest warrant was issued in June when he failed to show up for court.  He later pleaded no contest to the charge.  Young’s had other problems as well, and I wouldn’t criticize those.  I’m glad he’s recovered.  But he still did something disgusting, far worse than anything Alex Rodriguez has ever done.  Leave him alone, let him play baseball, give him a second chance, sure.  But let’s not give the man a medal.  Save the adoration for an actual role model.  I know you may not agree, but I had to get that off my chest.

Anyway, Mark Zuckerman and Rick Snider think trading Young is a no-brainer.  The alternative would be letting him leave via free agency and taking the draft pick.  I talked to ESPN’s Keith Law to learn exactly what kind of pick the Nats should expect for Young:

"I’d say there’s a decent chance he’s a no-compensation guy, probably an equal chance he’s a B (one sandwich pick), and a slight chance he’s an A (one sandwich pick plus a pick from the signing team)."

Over the 2006-07 seasons, Young really hasn’t amassed the kind of stats that vault a player up in the Elias rankings.  The Nats wouldn’t get much if any compensation for him.  As far as published reports, only the Braves have shown interest so far.

   

Rosenthal’s Latest: Andruw, Lidge, Gwynn Jr.

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Ken Rosenthal has a new Full Count video up at FOXSports for your viewing pleasure.

  • Rosenthal believes that despite Andruw Jones’s lousy May and June, he’ll still cash in this winter as the best available center fielder.  He’ll still provide more offense than Torii Hunter in the long run. 
  • The Nationals are still asking for the moon in trade talks.  If Jim Bowden does start acting reasonable, Dmitri Young, Chad Cordero, Jon Rauch, and Ryan Church could be dealt.  Word via Bill Ladson of MLB.com is that only the Braves have inquired on Young.
  • Brad Lidge is expected to remain an Astro.  The main reason: Drayton McLane still doesn’t think  his team is out of it.  Most simulations a 2% chance or less of reaching the playoffs.  If the Astros finally do acknowledge reality, they’d prefer to trade relievers other than Lidge (ie, Dan Wheeler or Chad Qualls).
  • The Rangers and Brewers were close to a trade: Akinori Otsuka to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn Jr.  Rosenthal seemed to dislike it, but I think it made sense for the Crew.  Regardless, Bill Hall’s injury thwarted the deal as Gwynn will be needed to man center. 
  • The new plan for the Brewers is to call up 29 year-old Grant Balfour, who’s dominated in the minors.  He endured elbow and shoulder woes before undergoing Tommy John surgery in May of ’05.  In the midst of his TJ recovery, Balfour developed the need for shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff and labrum.  This guy would be pumping gas if he’d been born a few decades earlier.  After the surgeries, the Twins cut Balfour and the Reds snagged him.  Balfour rehabbed with the Reds but never made it to the bigs; the Brewers claimed him off waivers in October of ’06.  He’s all the way back; Johnny Estrada was singing his praises back in February.

Braves Inquire On Dmitri Young

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According to Ken Rosenthal, the Braves "made a run" at Nationals’ first baseman Dmitri Young.  They even scouted the Mississippi Braves.  Jim Bowden, of course, asked for too much and the Braves backed off.  Maybe Bowden asked for Matt Harrison or Brandon Jones. 

Rosenthal mentions the Braves and Yankees as the only contenders in need of a first baseman.  However, if you’ve seen Dmitri lumbering around in the field, you know he’s a first baseman only by default.  As a DH, he could work for the Twins or Mariners.  Or, the Mariners could just start playing Ben Broussard over Jose Vidro.

Omar Minaya Trade Profile (Expos)

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Omar Minaya has done so much wheeling and dealing through the years that I’ve decided to break up his trade profile into two parts – Expos and Mets.  The vast difference between the two situations is another reason to separate the posts.  Click here to Download new_york_mets_minaya.xls, an Excel file with Minaya’s entire trade history. 

The 2002-04 Expos were owned by the other 29 baseball teams, with Minaya at the helm.  It was a unique and bizarre situation.  Probably a conflict of interest, too – Bud Selig did not allow the playoff-contending 2003 Expos to add September call-ups that year because it was deemed too expensive.

Anyway, Minaya made 25 trades in his three years as GM of the Expos.  Let’s analyze some of the bigger deals.

  • 3/23/02: Sent Guillermo Mota to the Dodgers for Matt Herges.  Since Mota went on to have a couple of dominant seasons for L.A., we’ll give the advantage here to Dan Evans, then the Dodgers’ GM.  Herges was later spun by Minaya to the Pirates for Chris Young.  I still can’t credit Minaya though as he subsequently gave Young to John Hart and the Rangers for junk in April of ’04.
  • 3/25/02: Sent Jason Bay and Jim Serrano to the Mets for Lou Collier.  I’d dock some points from Minaya for this one or give Steve Phillips props, but no one respected Jason Bay in 2002.  He was traded two more times before ending up a Pirate.
  • 7/11/02: Sent Carl Pavano, Graeme Lloyd, and others to the Marlins for Cliff Floyd, Wilton Guerrero, Claudio Vargas, and cash.  Floyd was quickly spun to Boston for Sun Woo Kim and Seung Song.  Essentially Minaya gave up Pavano and Floyd for Vargas.  Vargas never did much in Montreal, so I’ll give this one to Larry Beinfest and Mike Port (Red Sox GM at that time).
  • 7/28/02: The big one: Acquired RHP Bartolo Colon and minor league RHP Tim Drew from Cleveland in exchange for 1B Lee Stevens, minor league SS Brandon Phillips, minor league LHP Cliff Lee and minor league OF Grady Sizemore.  Even with the future of the franchise in question and a desire to win now, this was just too much to give up for Colon.  You have to give this one to Mark Shapiro. 
  • 1/15/03: Big three-team deal: Acquired RHP Orlando Hernandez and RHP Rocky Biddle, INF/OF Jeff Liefer and an undisclosed amount of cash from the Chicago White Sox in a three-team trade involving the New York Yankees, while sending RHP Bartolo Colon and INF Jorge Nunez to the White Sox.  I lack the full context of this deal, but it appears that MLB wanted Minaya to trade Colon because of his $6MM salary.  I’m a little skeptical of that though because El Duque was paid $4.1MM in ’03.  Biddle and Liefer were already looking like failed prospects at the time, so Kenny Williams won there.  The Expos also missed the boat on El Duque, as he soon developed shoulder problems and needed rotator cuff surgery.  He never pitched a game for Montreal and was non-tendered the following winter.
  • 3/24/03: Traded RHP Jim Brower and a player to be named for RHP Livan Hernandez, catcher Edwards Guzman and cash.  This is clear ownage of Brian Sabean, as Hernandez became the team’s ace and the premiere innings-eater in baseball for a three-year span.
  • 12/4/03: Traded RHP Javier Vazquez for the Yankees’ 1B Nick Johnson, OF Juan Rivera and LHP Randy Choate.  Just an awesome deal for Omar, maximizing the return for Vazquez.  A huge bounty was expected though as Vazquez was 27 and coming off his career year.  As you’ll later see, Choate became John Patterson.  So that’s three bona fide solid big leaguers for Vazquez. 
  • 12/15/03: Traded C Michael Barrett to the A’s for minor league pitcher Jonathan Brett and a player to be named.  You can dog Omar for this one, though Billy Beane turned around and sent Barrett to the Cubs  for junk.  Plus, Barrett had been terrible in ’03.  Credit goes to Jim Hendry for recognizing his talent.
  • 1/5/04: Minaya acquired two still-useful players from the Indians in Ryan Church and Maicer Izturis for reliever Scott Stewart.  Stewart, a 28 year-old southpaw, had posted two fine seasons for the Expos but flamed out shortly thereafter.  Perhaps not full revenge on Mark Shapiro for the Colon deal but it was a start.
  • 3/25/04: Snagged John Patterson for Randy Choate.  Patterson’s pretty messed up these days but you can’t deny the value of 198 innings of 3.13 ball in 2005.  That’s more than Choate ever game the Diamondbacks; advantage Minaya.
  • 7/18/04: Acquired RHP Jon Rauch and RHP Gary Majewski from the White Sox for OF Carl Everett and cash.  Jurassic Carl was always pretty average for the White Sox, while the Nats’ are still enjoying the fine work of Rauch.  Doesn’t top Kenny Williams’ Colon fleecing (ewww, gross) but it’s a start.  And Majewski?  Jim Bowden later used him as a major piece in order to acquire Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and Ryan Wagner.  Another fine move by Omar.
  • 7/31/04: Another three-team blockbuster: Traded SS Orlando Cabrera to the Red Sox. Acquired SS Alex Gonzalez, minor league RHP Francis Beltran and minor league 3B Brendan Harris from the Cubs.  Beltran never panned out, but Minaya saw something in Harris that many GMs missed.  Harris found his way to Tampa Bay and is currently sixth in VORP among rookies this year.

Looking at this progression of trades, you can see Minaya kind of learning his way.  He got burned quite a bit on his trades from 2002 through the Colon to the White Sox deal.  But then Minaya went on a major winning streak and managed to acquire some talent for the Montreal/Washington franchise on his way out.  Your thoughts, and did I misinterpret any of these trades?  We’ll cover Omar’s Mets deals next time.

MetsBlog On Cordero, Rauch, Milledge

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Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog says recent buzz in Washington, D.C. has linked the Mets to relievers Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch.  He also adds that Nationals manager and former Mets’ third base coach Manny Acta is a fan of Lastings Milledge.

Milledge suffered from a sprained foot ligament for most of the season, but finally returned to the Triple A lineup on Friday. [Correction: Milledge is still on rehab and won’t return to the Triple A New Orleans club for another week or two.]  It figures that many GMs will try to pry away the 22 year-old this month.  It’s been said that Minaya wouldn’t trade him for a rental, but Cordero and Rauch are both under contract for a while.  Both relievers have strikeout rates around seven per nine innings; the Mets might prefer someone more dominant.

Has Omar Minaya ever struck a deal with Jim Bowden?  Sure.  Back in June of ’02, when Minaya was GM of the Expos and Bowden was in charge of the Reds.  Minaya sent lefty Bruce Chen to the Reds for reliever Jim Brower.

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