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Dukes Trade Coming Soon?

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The Devil Rays have a new-look outfield, with Delmon Young in center, Jonny Gomes in right, and Elijah Dukes on the bench.  Gomes just homered today and could really take off as a 30 home run guy if he plays every day.

Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times hinted this morning that if Dukes didn’t start today, his departure may be imminent.  He didn’t, and Rocco Baldelli may be back by Friday.  Some sort of action with Dukes at that point seems likely, whether a release, demotion, or trade.  Jim Bowden’s recent "character is extremely important" comment to the Washington post seems to indicate he’s not interest in Dukes despite initial reports.

However, that comment may mean nothing.  Dmitri Young choked his 21 year-old girlfriend last year, and Bowden signed him.  Most likely Bowden just needs to sit with the player and feel convinced that he is reformed.

Dukes would still be a great fit for the Marlins, baseball-wise.  The Rays were said to be looking for a solid reliever in return for Dukes, but that was a few offenses ago. 

Nationals After Elijah Dukes

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According to Ken Rosenthal, Jim Bowden and the Washington Nationals are attempting to trade for Devil Rays center fielder Elijah Dukes.  Rosenthal notes that Bowden has before extended opportunities with players with off-the-field problems, most recently Dmitri Young.

Dukes, who will turn 23 later this month, has an interesting line on the season.  He’s at .199/.321/.409 with ten home runs and thirty walks in 209 plate appearances.  It’s an odd way to arrive at a .730 OPS, but ultimately puts him pretty close to the average AL center fielder (.260/.332/.408).  Obviously once Dukes’ batting average catches up – and I think it will – his OBP will be quite solid. 

Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system shows comparables for Dukes like Rondell White, Jack Clark, Matt Holliday, Ellis Valentine, Vernon Wells, and Michael Cuddyer.  Current Nationals Alex Escobar, Austin Kearns, Ryan Langerhans, and Mike Restovich all make his top twenty as well.  I find that strange…maybe Bowden is collecting a certain type of player. 

Dukes of course carries ridiculous character and anger management issues as baggage.  The theory is that moving him away from Tampa Bay could calm him down. In the past, the Pirates and Marlins have expressed interest in Dukes.

Stark’s Latest

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Jayson Stark has an assessment of the trade market over at ESPN.com.

  • Aside from the usual Mark Teixeira/Eric Gagne mentions, Stark believes many Rangers may be headed out at the trading deadline.  Specifically, he names Brad Wilkerson, Kenny Lofton, and Sammy Sosa.  Lofton is always a good midseason mercenary.  He’s like a Mike Stanton in that way.
  • Ken Griffey Jr. would approve a trade to Atlanta and might consider certain other teams.  Junior is making $12.5MM this year and next, plus a $4MM buyout for ’09.  Quite a bit of the contract is deferred, also.  $29MM over 2007-08 is still pretty steep, but now would be the right time to trade Griffey. 
  • Nationals – still asking too much for Chad Cordero.  Bowden’s got time to wait around for the right deal, I suppose.
  • Best option for Todd Helton still appears to be the Angels, in Stark’s mind.  That does not seem workable to me, because Casey Kotchman has broken out and Vlad needs access to the DH spot.
  • Speaking of DHs, this might finally be the year Mike Sweeney gets traded and gets to play for a contender.  If he heats up, maybe the Twins could snag him.
  • Michael Bourn could be a trade candidate, if the Phillies decide he’s only a future fourth outfielder.  Probably makes sense to keep him around if Aaron Rowand is going to walk after this season.
  • The Astros are buyers, and they have all sorts of needs.  A young catcher would be nice, but those are always in short supply.
  • Speaking of young catchers, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has received interest but the Braves are not biting.  A lot hinges on Scott Thorman’s performance and, of course, which young player the Braves are offered for Salty.  Most teams would love to have him.

Cubs Trade Speculation

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What are those crazy Cubs up to now?  They’ve got some surprising plans regarding their pitching staff.  Here’s the rundown:

  • Ryan Dempster may switch back to starting, after he mentors the future closer.  Dempster made six starts for the Cubs to begin 2005, four of which were quality efforts.  Apparently the Cubs think his repertoire is better suited as a starter.  He’s due $10.5MM for 2007-08, and if he can emerge as a quality #4 type starter the contract won’t look so bad.  Dempster’s best season came in 2000 with the Marlins, when he made the All-Star team and won 14 games.  His success will depend on his control.  It doesn’t appear that the Cubs are shopping him, though Paul Sullivan speculated that the Yankees could be interested.
  • Angel Guzman will be groomed as the next Cubs closer.  This is an interesting and unexpected idea.  He’s looked sharp in relief this year, but it’s only been seven innings.  He does have good stuff and decent control.  Phil Rogers offers a little Chad Cordero speculation.  It seems the Cubs will try internal options first, with the knowledge that most great closers were once starters.
  • Rogers seems to think the Cubs should let the inconsistent Carlos Zambrano walk after this season, and focus that money towards a big name hitter.  He names Andruw Jones, Torii Hunter, and Kosuke Fukudome as options.  I like the Fukudome idea.  According to Mike Plugh, Fukudome is best served as a right fielder.  A Cubs outfield of Soriano, Pie, and Fukudome could be a nice core.  Not sure where that would leave Matt Murton, however.
  • Rogers also reminds us that the Cubs nearly signed Japanese ace starter Hiroki Kuroda last winter, and could try again after the season.  Kuroda has great command, and won’t require a posting fee.  Kuroda chose to re-sign with the Hiroshima Carps last winter.  He’ll turn 33 before the 2008 season.

Arrivals

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Sometimes transactions–especially those in the bullpen–are just roster shuffling; other times they tell you more about a team’s future plans, or at least give a fringe-type player a chance to shine and up their trade value.  The last couple of days have seen a flurry of moves, including all of the following players getting called up:

  • Winston Abreu, Nats
  • Tony Batista, Nats
  • Fausto Carmona, Indians
  • Tim Corcoran, D-Rays
  • Matt DeSalvo, Yanks (started last night)
  • Justin Germano, Padres
  • Chris Heintz, Twins (replacing Joe Mauer, sort of)
  • Jon Leicester, Orioles
  • Anthony Lerew, Braves (starting tonight)
  • Kendry Morales, Angels
  • Edward Mujica, Indians
  • Chad Orvella, D-Rays
  • Jason Simontacchi, Nats (making his first major league start since 2004)

At least the Nationals aren’t standing pat.  They’re going to figure out if anybody in the organization can get some outs if it means going through 100 pitchers to do it.

By Jeff Sackmann
Brew Crew Ball

A’s Acquire Snelling For Langerhans

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According to Baseball Digest Daily, the A’s have acquired Chris Snelling from the Nationals for the just-received Ryan Langerhans.  I hope neither guy bought a condo.

Pretty interesting swap between Billy Beane and Jim Bowden.  Snelling, aka Doyle (his middle name) in U.S.S. Mariner world, was a cult favorite for many Mariners fans.  His inclusion in the Jose Vidro deal this winter was met with great disdain.  Oddly, Langerhans shows up as his fifth most comparable player according to Baseball Prospectus. 

Langerhans is a little older, and has done a better job staying healthy.  Both players can handle multiple outfield positions (well, not at once) and know how to draw a walk. They’ve got eerily similar PECOTA projections, so maybe it was just a matter of each GM preferring to bet on the other guy’s outfielder.  I think the best case scenario is that one of these guys develops into Jeromy Burnitz.

Check out Chris Needham’s take on the trade over at Capitol Punishment.

Chad Cordero Struggling

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As Mark Zuckerman writes, Chad Cordero’s slow start to the 2007 season isn’t doing much for his trade value.  In the early going, Washington’s closer has started relying more on his mediocre breaking pitches.  He was concerned that hitters would sit on his fastball.  Now he’s falling behind to most hitters.  Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post gives his take here.

Home runs were a major issue for Cordero last year; he’s on the same path this season with three allowed in 9.1 innings.  His normally solid control has been lousy, and he’s given up more hits than a pitching machine.

Keith Law’s scouting report in March warned of this (subscription required):

"American League teams looking at Chad Cordero as a closer solution might want to pause before meeting the high price Washington is asking for him. Cordero was throwing between 87 and 89 on Friday, and while he has a solid breaking ball, he works too often in the upper half of the zone — giving up 13 homers last year in a tough home-run park — and is just a tiny slip in command away from being a back-end reliever."

The old adage about trading a guy a year too early might apply here…will Cordero ever bounce back and have another 30 save season?  He’s up to $4.15MM now and reaches free agency after the 2009 season.  Even if he’s slipping, Cordero could probably help the Phillies, Reds, or Giants.

Should Nationals Sign Andruw Jones This Winter?

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Do you believe in the theory that a rebuilding team like the Royals or Nationals needs to make a "splash" as a good faith gesture toward the fanbase?  Thom Loverro of the Washington Times does.  And not just an ill-advised $55 deal like Gil Meche’s – he wants to the Nats to sign Andruw Jones this offseason.

Loverro believes that a new ballpark wouldn’t be enough, and that a superstar needs to be paired with Ryan Zimmerman to keep fans coming through the tough years.  Do I agree with Loverro and Bobby Cox that Jones is in the middle of his prime right now?  No.  But he should age well, and the Nats have nothing going on in center field.  I do agree with Loverro that this expenditure makes more sense than Alfonso Soriano, especially if the price tag is similar. 

Nats President Stan Kasten was also President of the Braves, and wants to build the Nationals in their image.  That means focusing on the farm system and making that splash when the team is ready to contend.  I highly doubt the Nats would seriously consider signing a guy like Jones this winter.  But for a struggling team looking for some goodwill and a contract that might not destroy them in 2013, Jones is the best candidate.

I think in the long-term, the Nationals will still be better off suffering through subpar attendance years and building the team without any dangerously massive contracts. 

In case you’re curious, there are only a handful of quality future free agents who will be under 30 in 2008: Corey Patterson, Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, and Mark Buehrle.

Rockies Come Calling On Cordero

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The Denver Post reports that the Rockies expressed interest in Washington Nationals’ closer Chad Cordero.  The Nationals gave the Rockies the same answer they give everyone that comes calling on Cordero: he’s not available.

Is March 31st too early to talk about a trading deadline that is four months away?  If The Nationals are smart, they will hang onto Cordero until they have the maximum amount of leverage, and that’s in July.  General manager Jim Bowden proved last year in trade discussions regarding Alfonso Soriano that he isn’t going to make a deal that he doesn’t feel gets the proper return, so when July comes around, other general managers will have to factor that into their offers.

Having said that, the Nationals would be foolish not to trade Cordero at some point this season. An elite closer is a luxury a 100-loss team can not afford.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".

Rockies Interested In Chad Cordero

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Surprisingly, Ken Rosenthal is indicating that the Rockies are interested in Nationals closer Chad Cordero.  I didn’t realize the Rockies were that serious about bullpen help, but it makes sense.  However, Cordero doesn’t seem like the right target as he is a flyball pitcher.

It may be a moot point in that discussions haven’t occurred for weeks between the two clubs.  It seems that Jim Bowden is looking for two of the Rockies’ five best prospects, and they have some excellent ones.  Of course, Trader Jim is in the catbird seat.  Other highlights of Rosenthal’s article:

  • The Rangers want a decent right-handed hitting fourth outfielder like Chris Denorfia or Jason Ellison.  Ellison seems more likely to be dealt as he’s out of options.  Ellison’s not young, but hitting .400 for a third of a season at Triple A should draw some attention.
  • In addition to the Cubs, Marlins, and Rangers, the Twins like Clint Barmes.  Despite an awful ’06, Barmes definitely has his uses.  PECOTA calls for a fairly solid .277/.321/.421 line.
  • Perhaps in an attempt to lead the league in DL days, the A’s inquired on Chris Snelling.  Again, Bowden asked for too much in return.

 

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