By Tim Dierkes | at
ESPN Radio 1000 is reporting that the Cubs have inked right-handed reliever Bob Howry to a three year, $12MM contract. He will have his physical on Monday.
Howry will enter his age 32 season in 2006. While his hit, home run, and walk rates were superb in 2005, his K/9 dropped to 5.9 from 8.2 the year before. Like Scott Eyre, Howry has parlayed two solid relief seasons into a lucrative long-term deal with the Cubs.
Thanks to Alex
By Tim Dierkes | at
We have some new details from my Mets source concerning a possible trade of Alfonso Soriano to the Mets. The latest report is that the Mets would send Lastings Milledge and Steve Trachsel to the Rangers for Soriano. The deal would be contingent on Soriano signing a long-term extension to play second base (not outfield).
The 35 year-old Trachsel would be a decent, affordable addition to the back-end of the Texas rotation. Jon Daniels may express concerns about Trachsel’s performance away from Shea Stadium in his last full season (2004). That year, Trachsel posted a 5.65 ERA with 16 HR allowed on the road. On the other hand, Trachsel was actually better on the road than at Shea in 2003. Trachsel’s 2006 option will pay him anywhere from $2.5MM-7MM based on innings pitched. He could be worth 4-5 wins in 2006.
Lastings Milledge was ranked the 4th best outfield prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus before the 2005 season. He did nothing to change that perception in ’05, batting .318 at Single and Double A stops. He projects to be worth 3 wins at the Major League level in 2006.
The OBP deficient Alfonso Soriano would be a curious addition to the Mets’ lineup. He was especially poor away from Ameriquest in 2005, hitting .224/.265/.374 (AVG/OBP/SLG). The power splits are tough to decipher, as Ameriquest is known to boost HRs for right-handed hitters by only about 6%. Soriano hit .315/.355/.656 in Texas in ’05.
Defensively, Soriano placed 17th among regular second basemen in range factor in 2005. According to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic, which combines offense and defense, Soriano was the 19th best second baseman in baseball in 2005. He projects to be worth 6 wins in 2006 and should get a raise to about $10MM through arbitration.
Sources:
Baseball Prospectus
Bill James Handbook 2006
Cot’s Baseball Contracts
By Tim Dierkes | at
All sorts of trade rumors coming from my source close to the Mets’ front office. While it is well-known that the Mets are interested in Arizona righthander Javier Vazquez, my source names a pitching prospect contrary to published reports.
According to my source, the Mets are considering dealing Kris Benson and 19 year-old blue chip pitcher Gaby Hernandez for Vazquez. Up to this point, published reports have named the polished 24 year-old Brian Bannister as the prospect in the deal.
While Hernandez has not pitched above A ball, he has a much higher ceiling than Bannister. Bannister did impress in 45 Triple A innings in 2005, however.
Vazquez’s problem lately has been the long ball. His HR/9 rate has hovered above 1.4 while his strikeout and walk rates were superb last season. Unfortunately for the Mets, Vazquez carried his home run woes with him on the road in ’05. It will troublesome if he continues to do so, but there’ s no doubt that Shea Stadium suppresses home runs (by 16%) and Chase Field inflates them (by 13%).
Even if Vazquez continues to surrender home runs, he’s a marked improvement over Kris Benson. Benson managed a 4.13 ERA in 2005 to Vazquez’s 4.45, but consider:
He’s two years older than Vazquez.
He was much worse away from Shea Stadium.
He hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a season since 2000.
His 2005 strikeout rate was a career low.
Considering that the Mets appear to be entering extreme "win now" mode, the Vazquez trade is a good move even if Gaby Hernandez pans out in 2007.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Word from ESPN Radio 1000 in Chicago is that the White Sox are talking to the Phillies about Jim Thome. Apparently the Sox would acquire Thome for some combination of Aaron Rowand, Jose Contreras, and Brandon McCarthy. The Phillies would pay the "majority" of Thome’s contract.
MLBTradeRumors.com is skeptical to say the least. We haven’t received confirmation yet on which ESPN reporter floated this rumor, but the memory of Bruce Levine announcing an imminent Juan Pierre deal is all too fresh. As proposed, this is simply way too much value for the White Sox to give up for Thome.
It makes sense for Rowand to be involved – he’s at the peak of his perceived value and the Phillies need a centerfielder. Scott Podsednik could easily slide over to take Rowand’s place. However, a healthy Thome as DH vs. Rowand in center field could easily be equal in value in 2006. We’re talking 5-6 wins from each player.
While it’s true the White Sox potentially have six starting pitchers, the club would be advised not to depend on anything from Orlando Hernandez. Shipping off Jose Contreras after his dominant second half (2.91 ERA) probably isn’t going to happen. Trading a young player with the promise and affordability of Brandon McCarthy seems equally unlikely. On the other hand, Kenny Williams did deal top prospect Jeremy Reed to Seattle to acquire Freddy Garcia.
Does the money make sense? The ESPN report claims that the Phillies would be paying the majority of Thome’s contract. Thome is due $12.5MM in 2006 and $14MM in 2007, $14MM in 2008, and a $3MM buyout in 2009. (Wow, now that’s a bad contract). Would the Phillies really pick up the tab on most of $43.5MM? I presume we’re talking somewhere around $30MM.
If so, three years of Thome for $4.5MM annually is a solid gamble for the White Sox. Considering the way U.S. Cellular inflates home run totals for left-handed hitters, 40 HR could turn into 46 pretty easily. Rowand has yet to reach free agency and is due $3.25MM in ’06 with a $5MM club option for ’07.
A trade of Thome and $30MM for Rowand is feasible for the Sox, assuming Thome is healthy. If the Sox made the ill-advised move to include a starting pitcher, Phillies management could justify the deal.
We’ll keep you posted as details surface about these trade talks.
Thanks to Alex.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Personally, I think the Josh Beckett trade is decent for the Red Sox. Beckett will probably never be a workhorse, but maybe a change of scenery will help. He should bring the team a couple of extra wins over David Wells in 2006. Anibal Sanchez will be very good in a few years, but Hanley Ramirez didn’t exactly master Double A in 2005. I’m skeptical that he’ll even become an average shortstop in the Majors.
Anyway, I’ve done some extensive projections over at RotoAuthority for Josh Beckett’s 2006 season as a member of the Red Sox. The main purpose is fantasy baseball, but casual fans might be interested to see the numbers as well.
Read Josh Beckett’s Boston Red Sox Projection at RotoAuthority.
By Tim Dierkes | at
A source in the Mets’ front office is telling MLBTradeRumors.com that the club will make a four year, $40MM offer to Billy Wagner immediately following his tour of the city. The deal might be announced by Wednesday morning. Omar Minaya is eager to get a deal done early this week so that he can focus on numerous other player acquisitions.
Minaya will be employing the same bait he used to reel in Pedro Martinez: the guaranteed fourth year. The Phillies (smartly) refuse to pay Wagner $10MM for a season during which he’ll turn 38.
Other sources close to the proceedings indicate that Wagner already had made his decision to join the Mets prior to his New York tour.
By Tim Dierkes | at
At this point, it’s a widely held belief that Kenji Johjima will be the starting catcher for the Mariners in 2006. Recently, I had an informative email exchange with a master of Japanese baseball and its players, Gary Garland. Gary runs JapanBaseballDaily.com and has a much deeper knowledge of cultural factors that might come into play with Johjima and Ichiro than any American sportswriter.
Among other things, Garland implies that Mike Hargrove could be fired after the 2006 season or earlier if he continues to offend his Japanese stars. Here are some excerpts of the email.
On the clash with Hargrove:
Given Johjima’s strong personality and the wrangling going on now between Ichiro and the M’s management, if Johjima and Ichiro don’t like what they see this coming season, I think Hargrove is getting the elbow. A few writers have said that there may be cultural reasons for what Ichiro has said and they are right, but unfortunately, they have little idea what those are. I do and I think it started back when Hargrove managed a team of MLB all stars that played in Japan and said that Ichiro would have trouble making an MLB team as a fifth outfielder. I believe that Ichiro feels that Hargrove not only insulted him, but also all Japanese baseball players.
On Johjima’s style and philosophy as a catcher:
Johjima is known for taking pitchers aside and challenging their manhood if he believes that they aren’t being aggressive enough on the mound. Johjima feels how his pitchers do reflects on how his ability to call a game is judged. To American players, they might resent Kenji’s forthrightness and his willingness to tell veteran pitchers they aren’t making the grade.
Thanks to Gary for the inside look at Kenji Johjima and the Mariners. One thought on Johjima’s challenging style: the dynamic between Johjima and the 20 year-old Felix Hernandez should be particularly engaging.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Disclaimer: this one is pure speculation.
Over at the premiere Cardinals blog, Viva El Birdos, lboros dropped a very intriguing name: Mark Buehrle. There haven’t been many published reports of Buehrle being available. Here’s the logic behind the Buehrle idea according to commenters Demetre and lboros.
Demetre: There really isn’t anything concrete about Buehrle being available (I don’t think) except for his unapolegitic, vocal, native STL love and desire to be a Cardinal at all costs.
Its about as pre-ordained a cardinal pitcher-to-be as i can remember outside the system.
lboros: the Buehrle is pure speculation on my part, but based on two considerations:
This is very sound logic (although it comes from a couple of die-hard Cards fans).
If the White Sox are looking to trim payroll and get the best value for Buehrle before free agency, the Cardinals would be the ideal trading partner. Jocketty’s Mark Mulder trade set a precedent that he’s willing to give up top prospects for proven pitching. If Jocketty made Jason Marquis and Anthony Reyes available, I think Kenny Williams would pull the trigger on this blockbuster.
What do you think?
By Tim Dierkes | at
It’s no great mystery, but my sources have confirmed that the team with the three-year deal on the table for Matt Morris is the San Francisco Giants. The deal is expected to be in the range of $24MM.
Morris is projected to go 11-13 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.36 WHIP for the Giants in 2006.
Thanks to Alex S.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Our suspicions from yesterday have been confirmed: Luis Castillo is definitely on the trading block. Many sources mention the Mets’ interest in the second baseman.
The names we’re hearing coming back from the Mets are shortstop Anderson Hernandez and/or second baseman Jeff Keppinger (via the Palm Beach Post). Alex Gonzalez won’t be returning to play shortstop in Florida, and the Marlins are less than confident in their top prospect at the position, Robert Andino. If the Mets would give up Hernandez, the Marlins would probably pull the trigger.
While Yusmeiro Petit is probably out of the question, the Mets could part with young righthander Gaby Hernandez. Hernandez looked fantastic in A ball in 2005 while still a teenager.
Luis Castillo is a top ten second baseman and perfect top-of-the-order hitter. His defense is superb and he’s due $5MM in 2006. The Mets aren’t the only team interested in his services – the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Twins are all in the running.
Thanks to Ben K.
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