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Archives for July 2006

2007 Free Agent Market: Right Fielders

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Updated 12-23-06

As you may know, I’ve been covering baseball free agents by position for several months now.  Next up: right fielders.

2006 League Averages for Right Fielders:
AL: .286/.349/.468 (.817 OPS)
NL: .268/.345/.453 (.798 OPS)

I’ll be using info from John Dewan’s Fielding Bible to assess these free agents’ defensive abilities.  Aubrey Huff played right field in 2003 and 2005, but it seems likely he’ll be used elsewhere.

Jeromy Burnitz – The Pirates and Burnitz have a mutual option for $6MM for 2007.  When it’s declined, he gets a $700,000 buyout.  Burnitz slipped to an ugly .230/.289/.422 line for Pittsburgh this year at age 37.  He didn’t play regularly after the first two months of the season.  Burnitz’s defense is average at best, and you can run on him all day.  He really shouldn’t be starting for any team.

Trot Nixon – Nixon’s name swirled about in trade rumors, but he stayed put in Boston.  He turned 32 this year.  While Trot is drawing a ton of walks, his slugging percentage has been declining for years.  Nixon has dealt with many injuries in past seasons but seems to be healthy now.  The Fielding Bible rates him as the third best defensive right fielder in the game, behind only Ichiro Suzuki and Richard Hidalgo.

For a reasonable team, Nixon is probably the best remaining option.  He makes a decent short-term gamble and won’t hurt you on defense.  Richard Hidalgo should also be on the radar, as he’s a top defender and may still have a little life in his bat.

This Date In Recent Trade Deadline History

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In recent years, July 29th has been the calm before the storm for deadline deals.

Last year, not a single trade was made on this date.  Same goes for 2004 and 2001.

We have to go back to 2003 to find a July 29th with significant trading.  The Yanks picked up Raul Mondesi for David Dellucci and some bums.  The Red Sox snagged Scott Williamson. And a few other relievers changed hands.

2002 featured a blockbuster that is still reverberating: the Phillies sent Scott Rolen to the Cardinals for Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin, and Bud Smith.

Boston Herald: Crisp In Trade Talks

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Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald and Buster Olney of ESPN are hearing the same thing: that Coco Crisp is available in trade talks.  In fact, Crisp was offered to the White Sox for a starting pitcher.  The Sox have six of ’em, so it’s anybody’s guess.  Maybe a buy low attempt on the fatigued Mark Buehrle?  Nah.

Crisp is hitting just .269/.322/.389 since returning from a broken finger and kidney stones on May 28th.  His OBP is not down because he’s drawing fewer walks – in fact, his walk rate has remained remarkably steady for years.  It’s down because Crisp’s OBP is normally driven by a .300 average and the hits aren’t quite there this season.  That’s the problem with an OBP reliant on base hits.  The culprit may be a reduction in Crisp’s contact rate.  Normally he puts the bat on the ball 86% of the time but this year he’s down to 83%.

Even an average center fielder should post a .335 OBP and .425 SLG, and normally Crisp tops that.  He’s still just 26.  Defensively, Crisp is one of the game’s best as a left fielder.  In center field, not so much.

The Red Sox seemingly wanted to keep Crisp around, signing him to a three year contract extension in April.  However, they did trade Bronson Arroyo after signing him to a contract extension.

Olney: Cards Interested In Shawn Green

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In his blog this morning, Buster Olney mentioned that he’d heard that Shawn Green might be a match with the Cardinals.  I think there had been rumblings to this effect, but haven’t seen much in print until now.

At .296/.354/.447 this season, Green falls below league average in the NL (.277/.360/.477).  Still, he’s pretty close and represents an improvement from what the Cards have thrown in left field this season.  On the other hand, Green may not represent any improvement over John Rodriguez or Chris Duncan. 

All of this would be moot if Green won’t waive his no-trade clause to come to St. Louis.  Perhaps as an incentive Green would require his new team to guarantee his $10MM option for 2008.  Regardless, he’ll make $9.5MM next year in his age 34 season.  Yikes – certainly doesn’t sound like Jocketty’s style.  Various Phillies’ outfielders may also be in play.

The Cards are fifth in the league in OPS and seventh in ERA.  They would benefit from an upgrade on either side of the ball, but Green probably isn’t an upgrade.  According to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cards may make one last bid for Dontrelle Willis.  That would be an upgrade.

Stark: Phils To Package Abreu and Lieber?

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ESPN’s Jayson Stark has a new lead on the Bobby Abreu discussions: the Phils have begun pitching Abreu and Jon Lieber as a package deal.  Stark says that only the Yankees could consider it, and that the price would actually lessen in this scenario because of all the salary.

Check out the Phils’ salary page at Cot’s Baseball Contracts; they’ve got a host of ugly commitments handcuffing Pat Gillick.  Beyond Abreu and Lieber, there are contracts for Pat Burrell, Randy Wolf, Mike Lieberthal, Arthur Rhodes, and Tom Gordon.  In my opinion, if you’re going to blow it up, don’t half-ass it – gut this team Marlins-style.  Well, not to that extent, but Jimmy Rollins probably is the only high-salary player that should be retained.  And only then because the market for shortstops is weak.   

Braves Swap Betemit For Baez, Aybar

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I step out for a twenty minute jog, and another deal goes down.  Ned Colletti and the Dodgers made a nice move by snagging Wilson Betemit from the Braves for Willy Aybar and Danys Baez.

The Braves add another free-agent-to-be reliever with closer credentials in Baez.  While the 28 year-old has been more hittable than ever this season, he’s compensated by posting career-low walk and home run run rates.  The hits may stem from a strikeout rate that’s become dangerously low at just 5.26 per nine innings.  While Baez is a decent reliever overall, he’s not the shutdown guy the Braves needed to differentiate their bullpen.

In Betemit, the Dodgers get an acceptable stopgap at third base for the rest of the season.  More importantly, though, they’ve acquired a young, cheap second base candidate who could put up an .800 OPS in regular duty for several years. 

Willy Aybar profiles as a poor man’s Betemit and profiles as more of a utility infielder.  There’s a good chance Willy can commiserate with his brother Erick soon enough.  Erick is the Angels’ primary trade bait. 

Seems like John Schuerholz and Wayne Krivsky are a step behind the other GMs lately, trading away solid, affordable regulars for very questionable bullpen help.

Cuban Star Yuliesky Gourriel Defects

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According to Will Carroll, Cuban third baseman Yuliesky Gourriel has defected.  I’ll try to relay what I’ve learned about Gourriel, who is likely to become quite the hot commodity in short order.

Gourriel is approximately 21 years old.  At least, that’s his reported age.  He’s a third baseman but has experience at second as well.  Last winter he flashed immense power at the baseball World Cup with eight home runs in eleven games; he also performed well in the WBC. 

Baseball America indicates that Gourriel would certainly be a first-round pick if he came up through the American system.  A scout describes him as "a championship-caliber third baseman in the big leagues."  BA likens him to Chipper Jones or Ernie Banks as far as body type and gushes over his bat speed. 

Gourriel accomplished his defection via Colombia.  That country’s Bogota Times said "it appears that his next destination would be the New York Yankees."

Rosenthal: Angels, Astros Make Tejada Offers

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Ken Rosenthal’s got the scoop on a sweet offer made to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada: starter Ervin Santana and shortstop Erick Aybar.

The Orioles, characteristically an indecisive team, need to pounce on this offer.  Baltimore will not be ready to compete in the AL East for several years, and prime young pitching isn’t offered up every day.  Put Santana under Leo Mazzone’s tutelage and he could blossom into a true ace.  And Aybar, while overshadowed by the Halos’ other infield prospects, looks to be an above average regular for many years.  Not surprising to see Aybar used as a trading chip, but I didn’t expect the Angels to offer up Santana.

As far as the Astros, Rosenthal just states that "prime Major League pieces" were offered.  He also mentions the Tigers and Dodgers as players.

Burrell Continues To Sit

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As a friend mentioned to me, Pat Burrell is one expensive bench player at $9.5 mil.  Burrell is out of the lineup tonight for the fourth time in five games.  Definitely seems like the Phils are attempting to showcase David Dellucci, who has a .976 OPS in 128 ABs this season (not including the 0-fer tonight).  Dellucci, a left-handed hitter, had an .879 OPS in 435 ABs last year with the Rangers.  As crazy as it sounds, Dellucci might be every bit as productive as Carlos Lee for the remainder of the season. 

Pat Burrell is doing his thing, with an OBP near .380 and a SLG around .500.  He’s suffered a power outage in July, however, perhaps because of the sporadic PT.  Burrell is one of the few legitimate above average hitters on the market; a team like the Yankees is in perfect position to acquire him without giving up much besides cash.  He’ll make $27MM for 2007-08.  Baseball Prospectus figures him to be worth just $8.5MM during that span.  With the Thome deal as a standard, some team may be able to convince Pat Gillick to take on $10MM of the remaining contract.   

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