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Archives for July 2006

Carroll On Tejada-Astros Discussions

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Baseball Prospectus author Will Carroll has opened up Will’s Mill for the weekend, and he’ll be burning up the phone lines fishing for all sorts of good trade rumors.

Today he mentions an offer Tim Purpura has given to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada: Adam Everett, Morgan Ensberg, and Fernando Nieve.  According to Carroll, Tim Purpura is focused on Tejada and is being urged by Roger Clemens to go get him.

In Everett, the Orioles would be acquiring the game’s best defensive shortstop.  His hitting, at .241/.300/.327 this year, lags far behind the average AL shortstop.  The average AL shortstop is hitting .286/.342/.423, similar to the work of Eric Chavez or A.J. Pierzysnki this year.

On the 10th of June, Ensberg bruised his shoulder diving for a foul ball.  He was hitting .256/.380/.562 at that point, though he hadn’t done much in May or June.  In Ensberg’s 18 games after the shoulder bruise, he hit just .158/.422/.263.  He drew plenty of walks but the power that resulted in 36 HR last year had vanished.  Ensberg took live batting practice yesterday for the first time since being placed on the DL on July 10th. 

Nieve, 24, has a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider.  He was just sent down to Triple A a week ago because of Brandon Backe, but had been demoted to the bullpen upon Roger Clemens’s return in late June.  It’s just a 15 inning sample, but Nieve did pretty well as a reliever: 8.2 K/9, 2.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.  As a starter he had a 5.6 K/9, 4.67 ERA, and 1.28 WHIP.  It is a fact that many pitchers add several miles per hour to their fastball by switching to relief, and Nieve’s two plus pitches make it easy to envision him as a future closer or top set-up man. 

ESPN: Carlos Lee To Rangers

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Breaking news from ESPN’s Keith Law:

"The Milwaukee Brewers are trading slugger Carlos Lee to the Texas Rangers as part of a multi-player deal, ESPN.com learned Friday.

The Brewers are sending Lee, minor-league outfield prospect Nelson Cruz and a player to be named later to the Rangers for relief pitcher Francisco Cordero and outfielders Kevin Mench and Laynce Nix."

Initial opinion: Jon Daniels got the best of Doug Melvin here.  Daniels gets a player comparable to Mench in Cruz, only cheaper.  He adds a huge addition to the middle of the lineup for the stretch run in Lee.  Mench is at a crossroads, Cordero is really just an OK 31 year-old reliever with saves under his belt, and Nix has been long on promise but short on results.  It seems that Melvin is trying to stay competitive and get some players for the future for Lee at the same time, so Brewers fans have to respect that.

Interesting side note: according to Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Mench’s most comparable player is Carlos Lee.  I wonder how often a player has been traded for the player most similar to him? 

I’ll have fantasy analysis of the trade on RotoAuthority sometime this afternoon.

Trade Rumor Roundup: 3 Days Left

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Here’s the latest Trade Rumor Roundup.

Word is that TV broadcasts picked up Jerry Krause working the radar gun in Wednesday night’s Royals-Orioles game.  The former Chicago Bulls GM currently works for the Mets.  That particular ballgame included work by LaTroy Hawkins, Andy Sisco, and Jeremy Affeldt, all of whom could interest New York.

Buster Olney mentions in his blog today that Greg Maddux could go to the Brewers, Dodgers, or Padres.  The Chicago Tribune says the Mets are an option as well.  The Daily Southtown adds the Giants to the list.

Olney also indicated that the D-Rays and Blue Jays have been struggling to come to an agreement for Julio Lugo.

According to the Globe and Mail, the Blue Jays may have some interest in Rodrigo Lopez and Tony Armas, Jr.  J.P. Ricciardi inquired about Mark Redman, but didn’t get a callback.

Capitol Punishment: not big fans of Jim Bowden.  Blogger Chris Needham’s thoughts on Soriano:  "Man, we’re going to miss him. Trading him is like being grounded by your parents. It sucks at the time, but a few years later, you realize that, gee, maybe your parents were right."

AllCubs discusses Five Reasons to Get A-Rod…and Five Reasons Not To.

A Phillies fan says goodbye to Sal Fasano.

Latest Carlos Lee Trade Rumors

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Doug Melvin, who I think is one of the game’s better GMs, is currently fielding offers for Carlos Lee.  According to Ken Rosenthal, Melvin recently offered a four-year, $48MM contract to the slugger, which was immediately rejected.

A source close to Lee tells me that he had planned to come to Chicago on yesterday’s off-day (he owns a house there), but was instructed by his agent and Milwaukee management to sit tight in because he’s close to being traded.  Lee mentioned that the Cubs are his number one choice in the offseason.   

ESPN’s Jayson Stark indicated that the Twins are definitely an interested party.  The Twins have plenty of young pitching depth, so the teams could definitely match up if Terry Ryan is willing.  The Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, and Mariners could also come into play.

Brad Lidge On The Trading Block?

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Both Ken Rosenthal and Richard Justice are hinting at the same idea: struggling closer Brad Lidge could be trade bait for the Astros.

According to Rosenthal:

"If general manager Tim Purpura dangles struggling closer Brad Lidge — as he did last off-season in a deal for Tejada — the possibilities could get interesting."

The possibility first popped up in mid-December, though the situation was much different back then.  Now, Lidge is pitching badly and his stock has fallen dramatically.  Justice, a sportswriter for the Houston Chronicle, indicated in his blog today:

"By the way, Fernando Nieve was sent to Round Rock to pitch late in games. Phil Garner intends to use him late when he returns to the big leagues. That’s probably an indication the Astros expect to trade a closer by Monday’s trading deadline."

However, as RotoWorld points out this afternoon, Lidge is paid decently and wouldn’t interest the teams looking to trade big bats.  They theorize that a longshot possibility could be sending him to the Phillies for Bobby Abreu.  Houston, of course, is where it all began for Abreu.  Perhaps a three-team deal would be necessary to make this work.

Trade Rumor Roundup: 4 Days Left

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What’s cooking this morning in the world of MLB trade rumors?

Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey spoke to all sorts of baseball sources; here’s his latest Rumor Mill.  New developments: the Mets could pursue various Rockie pitchers, and the Yanks crave John Smoltz.

My Mets guy indicates that the Wilson Betemit for Scott Linebrink deal that’s been bandied about could go down at the last minute.  What?  He hears things outside of the Mets.

SportsBlah sorts through the Alfonso Soriano rumors. 

Jimmy Gobble was scratched from his start last night.  Let the rampant rumormongering begin.  Actually, KC just switched him with Runelvys Hernandez to break up the southpaws in the rotation.   

As the days go by, Doug Melvin sounds more and more like he’ll trade Carlos Lee.

RotoAuthority gives the fantasy take on Shin-Soo Choo, Ben Broussard, Scott Kazmir, and many more recent developments.

All the newspapers are reporting that the Yankees have deemed Scott Proctor "untouchable."  I know good relief help is hard to find, but should a 29 year-old middling reliever at the peak of his value really be deemed untouchable?  Especially the way Joe Torre is abusing him.

Hadn’t heard of the Mets’ interest in Juan Cruz and Jose Valverde until Dan Graziano mentioned it this morning.  Could be a great buy low situation for a real live arm in Valverde.  Cruz I think could be tough to pry away.

There was just no reason to try to start Roger Clemens trade speculation.  The Astros, five games back in the wildcard, have invested way too much to suddenly wave the white flag.

Bidding war for…Cory Lidle?  Looks like Toronto has the lead so far; Lidle starts tonight.

Buster Olney mentioned today in his blog that the White Sox are willing to discuss trades for Freddy Garcia.  He also indicates that the Red Sox are working on a large, creative deal with more than two teams.

Add the Mariners and Cardinals to the Yankees for Shawn Green’s interested parties.  He can veto a deal to any of these three teams and is happy in Arizona.

Source: Cubs Turned Down Kendry Morales For Aramis Ramirez

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A trusted Angels source gave me the scoop on the team’s inquiries concerning third baseman Aramis Ramirez.

Word is that Los Angeles offered first baseman Kendry Morales straight up for Ramirez and the Cubs turned it down.  Morales, a 23 year-old Cuban defector, was called up to start for the Angels after hitting .311/.352/.463 in 42 Triple A games.  He responded by hitting just .240/.302/.388 in 183 ABs between the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th spots in the batting order. 

According to Baseball America, Morales’s defensive deficiencies limit him to first base or DH.  Still, a team could probably get away with sliding him down one more notch on the defensive spectrum to left field.  If the Cubs decide to retain the hot-hitting Ramirez this month, they’d better be sure he’s not planning on exercising his out-clause and testing the free agent market.

My source also indicates that Morgan Ensberg is unlikely to be traded given his shoulder condition. 

Tribe Trades Broussard For Choo

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Ben Broussard was reunited with his former platoonmate Eduardo Perez today.  He was dealt to the Mariners for outfielder Shin-Soo Choo.  Broussard and Perez will combine to make a lethal combo, just as they did at first base for Cleveland. 

More teams ought to assemble this sort of sweet platoon.  The combined efforts of Broussard and Perez this season come out to a .316/.358/.550 line, including 22 HR and 63 RBI.  The .908 OPS is roughly equivalent to what Carlos Lee has done this season.  The difference is that Broussard and Perez, or as I like to call them, Brourez, take up two roster spots and make $4.2MM less.  By the way, I had no idea going in how hard it would be to come up with two players’ combined OBP.  Did you know the denominator includes sacrifice flies but not sac bunts, and intentional walks are not part of OBP?  I learn something every day.  I figured it was just all walks plus hits divided by plate appearances.

Anyway, the decision to ditch Carl Everett and get a decent DH in there was long overdue.  And Mark Shapiro snagged a well-rounded 24 year-old prospect in Choo.

Kenny Williams Trade Profile

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Given all the speculation of Kenny Williams’s next move to fix his stumbling White Sox, I thought it would be useful to pull together a history of all the trades he’s made since 2001.  Download chicago_white_sox_williams.xls to take a look at that in an Excel file.

As far as Kenny’s July tendencies, he’s made such acquisitions as Roberto Alomar, Carl Everett, Scott Schoeneweis, Carl Everett again, and Jose Contreras in the past.  But Williams’s signature trades have come in the winter: David Wells, Todd Ritchie, Billy Koch, Bartolo Colon, Juan Uribe, Scott Podsednik, Jim Thome, and Javier Vazquez.

The exception, and Williams’s biggest summertime trade, was his acquisition of Freddy Garcia in late June of 2004.  The Sox smartly made this trade with three full months left in the season.  Williams surrendered highly touted outfield prospect Jeremy Reed in the deal, and he certainly got the best of Bill Bavasi so far.  Ditto for his other swap with Bavasi – Joe Borchard for Matt Thornton.

Williams doesn’t really have any favorite GM buddies to lean on for trades; his 38 deals since ’01 are spread out among many.  Jim Bowden is in the lead with three trades, but all were minor (Anthony Sanders, Scott Dunn/D’Angelo Jimenez, Jerry Owens/Alex Escobar).  Among current GMs, Williams has a history with Bowden, Bavasi, Brian Sabean, Dave Littlefield, Bill Stoneman, Kevin Towers, Billy Beane, Josh Byrnes, Brian Cashman, Omar Minaya, Dan O’Dowd, Ned Coletti, Theo Epstein, Pat Gillick, Doug Melvin, and Dayton Moore.  He’s definitely shown a tendency to trade with newly anointed general managers like Moore and Gillick, among others.

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