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Archives for November 2006

Kei Igawa Has Been Posted

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Rotoworld lists the potential suitors for Kei Igawa as the "Padres, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Mets, Cubs and Indians."  They rule out the Red Sox and Mariners, though this Tacoma News-Tribune article says the M’s are "likely" to bid.  That same article predicts that the posting fee will be about "two-thirds less" than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s $51.1M: $17M. 

That seems high for a guy who David Wright isn’t convinced has MLB-quality stuff.  Personally, I wouldn’t want my team spending more than $10M for his rights, but with all those teams involved, $17M seems plausible.

UPDATE: An alert e-mailer points out this article on the Braves official site.  According to club officials, Atlanta won’t be involved in this one.

By Jeff Sackmann

Michael Barrett On The Block?

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Here’s an interesting tidbit buried in a Giants notes column: the Cubs "reportedly are open to the idea of trading catcher Michael Barrett for pitching help."  I can’t imagine they’ll part with Barrett cheaply, but does that mean they are willing to go with Henry Blanco and, say, Geovany Soto behind the plate?

One thing is for sure: there isn’t much available on the free-agent market.  I suppose that if Barrett brought a decent return, a Mike Piazza-Blanco offense-defense platoon might make some sense for the Cubs; beyond that, the options are a bunch of guys who will cost more than Barrett (last year of a $12M/3y deal) and produce less.

By Jeff Sackmann

Starting Pitching in NYC

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Here’s the latest on the Tom Glavine front: the man says he’s 50-50 between the Mets and the Braves.  The Braves would have a hard time matching the Mets probable $24M/2y offer unless they dropped some salary in a trade (like some of these possibilities), so it may come down to how much of a hometown discount Glavine is willing to give Atlanta.

Across town, there’s the possibility that Scott Proctor will enter camp as a starter.   Proctor was great in his first full year out of the pen, but the Yankees starting corps still has plenty of holes.  No one–including Brian Cashman–could possibly think that the Yankees won’t make every effort to add at least one more starter, but as Cashman points out, the move is mostly insurance: it’s easier to prepare to start and end up relieving than to go the other way around.  If nothing else, if might make Cashman seem a little less desperate in trade talks.

And back to the Mets for a second: if you’re interested in the next wave of Mets players, like Anderson Hernandez, Carlos Gomez, and Fernando Martinez, you may enjoy this article of mine over at MetsGeek.com, which takes a statistically-minded look at their defense.  If Gomez ends up as part of a trade, whoever gets him could do very, very well.

By Jeff Sackmann

The Giants Really Want a Centerfielder

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And you know, if I had just given Steve Finley 429 at-bats, I would too!

Apparently the Giants have offered identical 3-year, $30M deals to Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr.  Both would appear to be a little young to fit in to the Giants clubhouse, but then again, so is Kevin Frandsen, and they haven’t buried him yet.  $10M per year seems to be the market value for Matthews right now, which–to me, anyway–is complete insanity. 

It’s true that Matthews had a fantastic season in Arlington–.313/.371/.495, to be precise–but it’s also true that he was 31, and his career numbers are a much more 4th-OF friendly .263/.336/.419.  It’s always possible that he really didn’t learn how to play baseball at a new level after his 30th birthday, but…$10 million for a guy with a strong possibility to be below league average?  Most amazing to me is this: Rotoworld speculates that Matthews could get some four-year offers.

Pierre may not be worth $10M/year either, but he is a bit younger, and Brian Sabean can’t be deluding himself too much about what he might get.  Pierre has been very consistent, largely injury free, and he’ll probably keep stealing lots of bases through the length of that contract.

In other Giants news: Ray Durham wants $18 million over 2 years, and the Giants "haven’t closed the door" on that.  However, Frandsen has gone crazy in winter ball, so the Giants could give him the starting job and let Durham look elsehwhere.  If they pass on Durham, that makes it more likely they’ll bring back Rich Aurilia; both the Giants and Yankees want Aurilia and are offering multiyear deals.  The deal could be done this weekend.

By Jeff Sackmann

Tim Getting Married? Oh my..

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Tim invited me to post a few comments while he is off on his honeymoon. I suppose my first post should be titled "Why, Tim?" but I’ll leave that alone. Instead, I’ll throw you a few general tidbits today so you have some reading material over the weekend.

The Rockies and Marlins have had some interest in acquiring Chris Duffy from the Pirates but word out of Pittsburgh is, Duffy isn’t available.

I posted a new article at Bucco Blog: Marginal $/Marginal Wins: 1999 – 2006 which tends to show the front office efficiency of MLB teams over the last eight years.

David Pinto has started to release his year-end PMR (Probabilistic Model of Range) defensive stats based on ball in play data.

Dan Syzmborski is also starting to release his 2007 offensive player ZIPS projections at The Baseball Think Factory.

David W. Smith presented a paper titled "Effect of Batting Order (Not Lineup) on Scoring" at SABR’s 2006 national convention. It’s a great read. You can look through some of the better SABR papers at Retrosheet’s research section.

Baseball-Reference has added a lot of great features so far this off season including box scores for every game since 1957, batting and pitching gamelogs, and my favorite, splits. Here is Zach Duke’s splits to give you an idea.

Until next week, join me in sending Tim and his new bride congrats — *Jake toasts his Corona*.

By Jake at Bucco Blog

Kenny Williams, Dealmaker

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Either Ken Williams is keeping busy at the GM meetings, or the reporters covering the Sox have very fertile imaginations.  I’m sure the truth is somewhere in between.  In addition to the Andruw Jones deal I mentioned in the previous post, here’s a roundup of possible White Sox moves:

Chris De Luca reports on a possible Freddy Garcia / Ervin Santana swap.  Oddly enough, his sources say that the "package" would be built around Santana.  Garcia might be a better pitcher right now, but just barely: last year, Garcia was worth 15 win shares, while Santana was worth 13.  Santana’s younger, and is under the Angels control for four more years.  Bill Stoneman couldn’t covet Garcia that much, could he?  South Side Sox chimes in on the improbability of that deal.

De Luca also repeats the thinking that Williams could bring Aaron Rowand back, especially if the Phillies land Alfonso Soriano.

Phil Rogers has a flurry of rumors, some of the recycled variety.  He keeps stoking the flames of Javier Vazquez-to-the-Mets, and suggests there’s the makings of a "monster deal" between the Sox and Rangers with Vazquez or Mark Buerhle headed to Texas.  Rogers is clearly speculating, but if his source is correct that John Danks is in play, there’s certainly the possibility of something getting done.

By Jeff Sackmann

Braves Rumors

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Talking Chop has a nice roundup of trade talks that the Braves could be exploring.

First, the White Sox are interested in Andruw Jones.  That seems like a longshot because Andruw has a no-trade and the White Sox hate Scott Boras, but who knows, maybe an extension would get that done.  Trading for Jones would make Brian Anderson expendable, and Anderson seems to me like Bobby Cox’s kind of player–young, great defense, could improve at the plate.  Maybe Anderson and one of Chicago’s starters would get that deal done.

Second, the Rangers could be looking at Braves pitching.  The Rangers could have all sorts of holes depending on how many of their free agents they are able to keep, especially in the rotation.  They don’t match up nearly so well with the Braves–this article suggests the Braves would be looking for bullpen help in a deal like that, but after trading away Francisco Cordero last season, the Rangers wouldn’t appear to have the depth to survive losing Akinori Otsuka.

In related news, Vicente Padilla’s agent doesn’t expect him to sign immediately, but notes that the Rangers are the most interested.  I’m not surprised–if both Padilla and Adam Eaton went elsewhere, Jon Daniels would be forced to do a lot of shopping in a very, very expensive store.

By Jeff Sackmann

Two Year Offer For Drew?

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Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News has overheard a few possible offers to free agents.

He says that J.D. Drew is "expected to sign a two-year, $30 million deal with Boston."  It makes sense for the Sox to pay an extra $2MM or so annually to keep the years down on this deal.  Meanwhile, in a separate article, Larry LaRue writes, "Boston has offered J.D. Drew a huge contract – and Lou Piniella’s Cubs have matched it."

Ringolsby also notes that the Giants made a pair of three-year, $30MM offers:  one to Juan Pierre and one to Gary Matthews Jr.  The idea is that whoever says yes first gets the deal.  What if both say yes?  I don’t know how that works.  As McCovey Chronicles points out, Pierre doesn’t make a whole lot of sense on a team that already has Randy Winn.

Did you know that according to Bill James, Pierre has a 29% chance at reaching 3,000 hits?  If this causes players like Pierre to be considered for the Hall, I think we need to change the 3,000 hit standard.  Same goes for 500 HRs.

In addition, Brian Sabean is already talking to the agents for Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee.  Word from this same article is that the Giants may bid for Kei Igawa and haven’t had significant talks with Ray Durham yet.

J.D. Drew Set To Sign With Red Sox?

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Paul Hagen of the Philadelphia Daily News wrote a blurb this morning in the notes of his column:

"Multiple sources say they are set to sign free-agent outfielder J.D. Drew, the Phillies’ old amigo, for a 4-year, $48 million deal."

Not sure what to make of that one.  I could see such an offer going out, but I expect Drew to relax and wait at least a few weeks before signing.  Maybe let one of the other big bats get signed first.

Ken Rosenthal and his sources see the Red Sox, Cubs, and Astros as the main suitors.  And while it’s just speculation right now, could the Jays get involved?  The Cubs are committed to Jacque Jones in right field, so perhaps Drew would take his brittle body to center.  The Red Sox would have to do something with Coco Crisp or Wily Mo Pena to make it fit.

Drew will be 31 next season; can Scott Boras squeeze any more than four years out of anyone?  It seems unlikely.  Perhaps, though, a team would pay extra to keep the commitment smaller.

Tier 2 Starting Pitchers

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Jason Jennings certainly isn’t a free agent, but he may be the best starter available through trade.  Let’s take a look at how he stacks up against some of the other "Tier 2" guys being bandied about by half the clubs in baseball.  Stats are from 2006 except for Randy Wolf, for whom I used ’05.

Strikeouts per nine innings:

Ted Lilly – 7.93
Gil Meche – 7.52
Vicente Padilla – 7.02
Randy Wolf – 6.86
Jason Jennings – 6.03
Jeff Weaver – 5.60
Jeff Suppan – 4.93
Miguel Batista – 4.80
Woody Williams – 4.46

Lilly, Meche, and Padilla are probably the three who might be considered power pitchers.

Walks per nine innings:

Woody Williams – 2.17
Jeff Weaver – 2.46
Randy Wolf – 2.93
Vicente Padilla – 3.15
Jeff Suppan – 3.27
Jason Jennings – 3.61
Miguel Batista – 3.66
Ted Lilly – 4.01
Gil Meche – 4.05

Wolf, as you can see, ranks well in both categories.  He will need to regain his pre-TJ control though.

K/BB (a measure of command):

Randy Wolf – 2.35
Jeff Weaver – 2.28
Vicente Padilla – 2.23
Woody Williams – 2.06
Ted Lilly – 1.98
Gil Meche – 1.86
Jason Jennings – 1.67
Jeff Suppan – 1.51
Miguel Batista – 1.31

This is where Jennings suffers, as he does not put the ball where he wants to.

Expected home runs per nine innings (each pitcher normalized to a 10.8% home run per flyball rate):

Miguel Batista –  0.93
Jeff Suppan – 0.99
Vicente Padilla – 1.05
Jason Jennings – 1.09
Randy Wolf – 1.13
Gil Meche – 1.15
Ted Lilly – 1.17
Jeff Weaver – 1.33
Woody Williams – 1.38

This is where the groundball pitchers rule.  So far Padilla is looking like the best overall pitcher.

Bill James ERA projections:

Woody Williams – 4.04
Vicente Padilla – 4.23
Ted Lilly – 4.35
Randy Wolf – 4.31
Miguel Batista – 4.37
Jeff Weaver – 4.40
Jeff Suppan – 4.46
Jason Jennings – 4.77
Gil Meche – 4.76

Nobody under 4, but a few guys will probably sneak in if they move to the NL.  I like how Padilla grades well across the board; I think he could really help a team like the Cubs.  Wolf is the upside play, but he may have enough suitors that he doesn’t have to take a discount despite throwing just 136 innings over the past two seasons.  Williams is a bit like Greg Maddux, in that he’s a helpful control artist who won’t require a long-term commitment.  One difference is that Maddux has fewer teams for which he’s willing to play, it appears. If only Weaver hadn’t excelled in the playoffs, I could see him being a mild bargain.

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