Carlos Guillen is being pretty cool about his impending free agency. He’s not establishing an ultimatum for Dave Dombrowski. He’s not complaining about his $5MM salary this year even though he might be worth four times that (so says PECOTA). He’s not demanding to play shortstop now or in any future contract. Basically, he’s the model contract year guy.
I would like to see a modified PECOTA as a means of determining Guillen’s worth over for the 2008-11 seasons assuming some time spent at 1B. The projection system values him at $70MM over those four seasons, though it has him playing 100+ games at short each year. PECOTA calls for below average defense for the last three years of the contract, but still values him very highly.
Given the massive difference between his production coming from shortstop and first base, his future employer might want to keep him at short even as his defense slips further. Maybe the Tigers could compensate by signing Orlando Hudson after the 2008 season.