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Archives for June 2007

Posada Leads Free Agent Catcher Class

By Tim Dierkes | June 14, 2007 at 10:45am CDT

If you’re looking for a catcher this winter – and many teams will be – you probably have to put Jorge Posada at the top of the list.  His incredible season couldn’t have come at a better time.  Here’s the list of possible free agent starting catchers, with their 2008 age in parentheses:

Jorge Posada (36)
Ivan Rodriguez (36) – $13MM club option for ’08
Paul Lo Duca (36)
Michael Barrett (31)
Jason Kendall (34)

When we last checked in on Pudge’s option, Ken Rosenthal said the Tigers were "almost certain" to exercise it.  For the sake of argument, let’s say Kendall’s recent resurgence is for real and allows teams to consider him as a starter.  That means four available catchers: Posada, Lo Duca, Barrett, and Kendall.

Barrett is the youngster of the group, and before this season began I would’ve ranked him first.  But even a biased Barrett fan such as myself must admit that his stock is falling rapidly with the altercations, mental gaffes, and subpar offensive performance.      

Despite the power outage, Lo Duca should be a respectable choice for some team not planning to spend $10MM+ a year on a backstop.  Posada, though, is where it’s at.  He’s showing no signs of age and is the type of player GMs love.  And a catcher who can easily post an OPS over .800 is a major asset.

Contract talks with the Yankees from last spring have been tabled as Posada prefers to focus on playing.  It seems like both sides want him to finish his career as a Yankee, though there is some uncertainty in Posada’s comments.  He’s keeping his options open.  I think it will require four years and maybe $48MM. 

Plenty of teams would line up for Posada – the Angels, Mets, Phillies, and Astros come to mind.

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2008 MLB Free Agents New York Yankees Jorge Posada

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Olney Speculation: Dye To Diamondbacks

By Tim Dierkes | June 14, 2007 at 9:51am CDT

Buster Olney had an idea today worth discussing.  With the Diamondbacks in the thick of a pennant race and Carlos Quentin pressing, how about acquiring Jermaine Dye from the White Sox as a rental?

GMs Josh Byrnes and Kenny Williams seem to get along, matching up on the Javier Vazquez/Chris Young deal in December of ’05 and the smaller Alex Cintron trade in spring 2006.  Olney believes Williams is ready to trade Dye now.  So far the Padres and Dodgers seem to be the main contenders, so keeping Dye away from those clubs would provide an additional benefit.

Earlier this month Williams said he wouldn’t be trading for prospects, but I don’t think that rules out good young players.  The Diamondbacks won’t be returning Chris Young, but they do have expendable quality guys like Alberto Callaspo, Mark Reynolds, and Scott Hairston.  However, I have a feeling KW would ask for Micah Owings given the demand for Dye.  25 year-old reliever Tony Pena could be a target as well.  Dustin Nippert is another intriguing arm for the White Sox, even if the results haven’t been there recently. 

Owings may be off limits or simply too much for an impending free agent.  But two of the other players mentioned above would make a nice package for Dye.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Chicago White Sox Jermaine Dye

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Samardzija Changes Tune

By Tim Dierkes | June 14, 2007 at 9:32am CDT

I think it’s cool that Cubs’ minor league hurler Jeff Samardzija keeps a blog.  However, it’s a shame that the powers that be apparently don’t want him to speak his mind.  Check out Paul Sullivan’s article this morning in the Tribune.  Sullivan documents how Samardzija’s original post about being moved to the bullpen has changed. 

That is the wonder of the Internet.  Published material seems to live on forever.  At least Curt Schilling’s blog isn’t censored…right?      

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MLBTR ProTrade Live Chat Transcript

By Tim Dierkes | June 13, 2007 at 9:15pm CDT

ProTrade was kind enough to let me try out their ProTrade Live tool during last night’s Cubs game.  During the game, people fired off questions and I tried to answer most of them.  Most pertained to possible trades, with a few fantasy questions mixed in.  It was a great time, and I’m sure we’ll be doing more of these.

Click here to Download tim_dierkes_protrade_chat_61207.xls, an Excel version of the transcript.

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MLBTR Chats

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Rosenthal’s Latest

By Tim Dierkes | June 13, 2007 at 3:25pm CDT

The authority on all trade rumors, Ken Rosenthal has spoken.  Let’s review.

  • As we have heard before, the Dodgers like Adam Dunn.  We’ve also discussed the fact that there’s not a clear place to put him.  Whether you go with first base or left field, a veteran must move.  The Padres like Dunn as well but talks have yet to occur.  The Angels may have liked him in the past but they don’t seem likely at this point.  And the Twins?  They just won’t break the bank for him unfortunately.
  • With Michael Barrett having issues with 40% of the Cubs’ rotation, the Cubs could look to trade him.  Even though he’s a top offensive catcher, his impending free agency might prevent any strong return.  Plus, the Cubs would have to go with a Henry Blanco/Koyie Hill tandem.  A more likely scenario is that the Cubs will let Barrett walk after the season.
  • Finally some clarity on Eric Gagne’s limited no-trade protection.  Rosenthal reveals that he can veto trades to 12 teams.  The Phillies and Indians are again mentioned as suitors.  Rosenthal thinks Mark Teixeira could generate a lot of talk but no action at the trading deadline.  Kind of like Alfonso Soriano or A.J. Burnett before him.
  • The asking price for Brad Lidge, supposedly: a premium young catcher and promising young pitcher.  Lidge will probably earn $8MM next year before hitting free agency.  The Astros should be happy with a young catcher or a young pitcher, not both.  I’d mention Salty here but I think he is worth much more than Lidge.  Rosenthal says the Astros could move another bullpen arm like Wheeler or Qualls to get the bat they need. 
  • Could the Devil Rays simply retain Al Reyes and Carlos Pena?  Both players could be valuable contributors to the 2008 club.  I like the idea of keeping Reyes around for next year, but I think Pena has peaked.
  • Noah Lowry would get the attention of the Braves or Cardinals, but the Giants are unlikely to move him.
  • The Phils are likely to pass on Tomo Ohka despite their need for pitching.
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Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Minnesota Twins Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Adam Dunn Al Reyes Brad Lidge Carlos Pena Eric Gagne Noah Lowry Tomo Ohka

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Tim Brown’s Trade Candidates

By Tim Dierkes | June 13, 2007 at 12:47pm CDT

Tim Brown of Yahoo’s MLB Experts Blog has a list of players GMs will be monitoring for trades in coming months:

  • Devil Rays: Carl Crawford, Elijah Dukes, Al Reyes, Carlos Pena.  Brown sees Dukes as the most likely trade candidate.  Does his recent offense make that more or less likely?  Both – it should increase the Rays’ need to get rid of him but decrease the number of interested teams.  The Rays probably knew about the incident with the 17 year-old girl before it became public.  I expect TB to build around Crawford, but Reyes and Pena should be worth dealing.  Bet the Tigers wish they still had Pena.
  • White Sox: Mark Buehrle, Jermaine Dye.  Brown names contenders for Buehrle: Phillies, Indians, Mariners.  I just don’t see Kenny Williams helping the Tribe though.  Brown thinks Dye should stay in the AL, though other reports have NL West teams after him.
  • Marlins: Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Cabrera.  Of course this pair has been surfacing for quite a while now as the two expensive vets on a low-budget team.  Brown notes the Yankees’ love of Willis.  I would be concerned for Dontrelle’s ERA pitching as a Yankee.  Brown believes an L.A. team could go after Cabrera, which would be exciting.  But there really hasn’t been buzz around Cabrera lately.
  • Rangers: Eric Gagne, Sammy Sosa, Kenny Lofton.  Brown names a slew of teams that could pursue Gagne: Indians, Tigers, Mariners, Braves, Mets, Yankees.  The latter four haven’t really gotten play as Gagne suitors yet.  I think the Ms should really focus on boosting their rotation somehow.  Their pen looked pretty good against the Cubs last night.
  • Orioles: Steve Trachsel.  You know what I think of Trax’s sub-4 ERA.
  • UPDATE: A second post from Brown names Omar Vizquel, Mark Grudzielanek, Jason Jennings, Brad Wilkerson, Brian Fuentes, Tadahito Iguchi, Ray Durham, and maybe Matt Kemp and James Loney as additional trade candidates.
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Scouting The Reds

By Tim Dierkes | June 13, 2007 at 9:20am CDT

The chatter regarding Reds’ left fielder Adam Dunn is picking up, and it’s only June 13th.  It’s looking more and more like we can add Dunn to our 2008 MLB free agents list, as his 2008 option becomes void with a trade.  Ken Griffey Jr. and various other Reds may be in play too.

Five articles referenced Dunn this morning.  The Newark Star-Ledger contains just one sentence:

"The Cincinnati Reds, who could be in position to trade reliever David Weathers and slugger Adam Dunn, had a scout at the [Yankees-Diamondbacks] game."

One imagines the Yankees may like a number of additional Reds, including Griffey and Mike Stanton.  But the Weathers/Dunn speculation is the most reasonable.  The Reds, by the way, have yet to approach Junior about any possible trades.  While we know Griffey would probably approve a trade to Atlanta, some real creativity would be required with his contract.  And he’d have to be open to playing left field.  Buster Olney noted today that the White Sox have at least had internal discussions about acquiring Griffey.

The Dayton Daily News has the scoop on scouts from many teams in attendance at the Reds-Angels game last night: the Braves, Astros, Dodgers, White Sox, Tigers, and more.  Actually the article references "Los Angeles" so that could be the Angels too.  Any of these clubs could conceivably make room for Dunn.  I imagine young pitching is the name of the game for Wayne Krivsky.

Besides the previously named players, Eddie Guardado, Scott Hatteberg, and Kyle Lohse could be on the market.  The Reds have a $3MM option for ’08 on Guardado and a $1.85MM club option for ’08 on Hatteberg.  Lohse, a Scott Boras client, reaches free agency after this season.

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Atlanta Braves Chicago White Sox Cincinnati Reds Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Adam Dunn Ken Griffey Jr.

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LinkedIn

By Tim Dierkes | June 13, 2007 at 8:43am CDT

If you have a profile on LinkedIn and would be interested in expanding networks a little bit, send me a connection.  My name is Tim Dierkes, and I’d definitely like to add a few more good solid contacts.  Who better than MLBTR readers?

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Could The Cardinals Acquire Buehrle?

By Tim Dierkes | June 12, 2007 at 1:44pm CDT

Larry over at Viva El Birdos breaks down exactly how rare a trade of a pitcher of Mark Buehrle’s caliber would be.  He also compares previous midseason deals for big-name starters to see what the Cardinals or any other team might have to send over to Chicago.

Another marquee pitcher dealt midseason was Randy Johnson in 1998.  While the age 34 season is rarely considered a player’s prime, the Unit didn’t really establish himself until he was 26.  Anyway, that deal required a serious bounty of John Halama, Carlos Guillen, and Freddy Garcia.  Halama had a few useful seasons, Garcia became Seattle’s ace, and Guillen developed into a star.  Guillen didn’t break out until he joined the Tigers in ’04, however. 

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Chicago White Sox St. Louis Cardinals Mark Buehrle

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The Relief Market

By Tim Dierkes | June 12, 2007 at 1:21pm CDT

Mark Hale of the New York Post mentions some available relievers in today’s column.  The Mets, like many teams, may be looking to acquire bullpen help.  Here are Hale’s trade candidates:

Chad Cordero
Jon Rauch
Eric Gagne
Akinori Otsuka
Salomon Torres

Hale’s source believes the Rangers would only trade one of Otsuka/Gagne, and not both.  Some other "name" relievers who may be available leading up to the July 31st deadline, in my estimation:

Al Reyes
Octavio Dotel
David Riske
Mike MacDougal
Mike Stanton
Dave Weathers
Eddie Guardado

The Royals, Devil Rays, Rangers, Nationals, and Reds are shaping up as the clear sellers in the market so far.  The White Sox may be approaching that point.  The NL Central is so shaky that a lot of lousy under-.500 clubs will not be packing it in.  Hence the lack of Brad Lidge on this list.

 

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New York Mets Relievers

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