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Archives for June 2007

Will Rowand Return To White Sox?

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Center fielder Aaron Rowand has achieved some sort of cult status in Chicago, with many Sox fans convinced that he has the mojo or special something that the team has been lacking.  With the White Sox in Philadelphia this week, five articles were produced this morning surrounding a few comments Rowand made about returning to Chicago.

He admitted that he has a "soft spot" for the Sox, all things being equal.  I assume that means the White Sox matching the best contract offer Rowand receives on the free agent market this winter.  While Rowand was almost traded back to the White Sox a couple of times this year, Scot Gregor thinks free agency is the more likely path.  Meanwhile Sam Donnellon tosses out a Rowand for Mark Buehrle proposal.

Rowand considers himself a possible "leftover" in a sea of free agent center fielders.  He’s just being modest.  Aside from Corey Patterson, who’s having an awful year, and Milton Bradley, who’s been on the DL three times this season, Rowand is the youngest available CF.  He’s more affordable than the Big Three (or Four if you include Mike Cameron) and younger too.  He’s a better defender than Eric Byrnes.  And he’s in the midst of a career year.  If Rowand can stay healthy he may be looking at a Gary Matthews Jr. deal.

I am a little bummed that Rowand is not drawing walks like he was in the first two months of the season.  He seems to have reverted to his old ways in June.

Krivsky Has No Comment On Dunn

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That Wayne Krivsky greeted Jon Heyman’s Adam Dunn rumor with a no comment might be taken by some as confirmation.  After all, we have seen GMs deny similar rumors if the player wasn’t actually available.  Then again, it may just be a blanket "no comment" on all trade rumors.

One interesting part of this Cincinnati Enquirer article was Krivsky saying that a 48-hour window could be granted to an acquiring team to hammer out a contract extension.  Defense aside, Dunn’s impending free agency is the biggest drawback when comparing him to the also-available Mark Teixeira.  But if Dunn is open to a reasonable extension at $12-14MM annually, that could even things out.

The Resurrection Of Steve Trachsel?

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This article isn’t really about the Orioles trading Steve Trachsel this July; it’s more about how the starter nobody wanted is doing a fine job so far with a 3.82 ERA through 13 starts.

Even a cursory glance at the underlying stats reveal that Trachsel’s success this year is a house of cards.  First, he has an absurdly low strikeout rate of 2.75 per nine.  That’s right, he’s whiffed 23 in 75 innings.  Lowest strikeout rate in the Majors given 70 IP?  We have a winner, although Zach Duke and his 5.75 ERA is right there.

How about his control?  4.3 walks per nine is not good.  Home run rate?  Pretty good at 0.84 per nine, but not likely to last since he’s a flyball pitcher.

So what has Trachsel done well this year?  He’s allowed just eight hits per nine innings, in large part because of a .241 BABIP.  Previous Trachsel BABIPs: .299, .282, .280.  Normal stuff.  The .241 mark is fourth best in baseball, and has no chance of lasting.

The Orioles, owners of perhaps the biggest regression candidate in the game, would do very well to sell high on him right now.  Of course, they’ll wait until his ERA is over 5 instead.

Reds Taking Offers On Dunn

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We kind of figured Reds slugger Adam Dunn might be available, given his $10.5MM salary and the Reds’ 25-39 record.  Today, Jon Heyman at SI.com confirmed that Dunn is "already out there as available," according to his "league sources."  Heyman does not mention that Dunn’s $13MM option for 2008 voids if he’s traded. 

While Dunn can technically play left field, he will more likely be used as a first baseman or DH by the acquiring team. 

The White Sox are short on power this year, but may shift to sell mode soon and probably wouldn’t want Dunn bumbling around in left field anyway.  The Dodgers would make a great fit, but acquiring Dunn could require shifting Nomar to third base.  He would then break down during his first round of fielding practice.

The Padres make sense too, but Adrian Gonzalez is entrenched at first so Dunn would play left.  Oakland or San Francisco could definitely accomodate Dunn at first base.  He’d make a great DH for the Twins.  Dunn was born in Houston; maybe Wayne Krivsky could do an intra-division trade and Lance Berkman could stick to right field.

I’d really like to see the Twins pull this off, but Dunn just doesn’t seem their style.  It seems the Dodgers will snag a big bat one way or another, but Dunn isn’t the easiest fit.  I honestly can’t pin down the best suitor for him right now.

Twins May Target Wigginton

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According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Twins may target Ty Wigginton of the Devil Rays as a third baseman and DH with some power.  Wigginton makes less than $3MM and offers right-handed pop.  The Twins are tenth in the league with a .393 SLG.  They’re even worse against southpaws, and Wigginton can definitely handle lefties.

Twins’ 3Bs have hit .236/.319/.336, and the team’s DHs have hit .256/.335/.365.  These areas should both be fairly easy deadline upgrades.  Minnesota is seven games out in the AL Central and 5.5 games out of the wild card.

Other potential cheap sources of DH power: Dmitri Young, Sammy Sosa, and Mike Sweeney.

Nationals After Elijah Dukes

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According to Ken Rosenthal, Jim Bowden and the Washington Nationals are attempting to trade for Devil Rays center fielder Elijah Dukes.  Rosenthal notes that Bowden has before extended opportunities with players with off-the-field problems, most recently Dmitri Young.

Dukes, who will turn 23 later this month, has an interesting line on the season.  He’s at .199/.321/.409 with ten home runs and thirty walks in 209 plate appearances.  It’s an odd way to arrive at a .730 OPS, but ultimately puts him pretty close to the average AL center fielder (.260/.332/.408).  Obviously once Dukes’ batting average catches up – and I think it will – his OBP will be quite solid. 

Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system shows comparables for Dukes like Rondell White, Jack Clark, Matt Holliday, Ellis Valentine, Vernon Wells, and Michael Cuddyer.  Current Nationals Alex Escobar, Austin Kearns, Ryan Langerhans, and Mike Restovich all make his top twenty as well.  I find that strange…maybe Bowden is collecting a certain type of player. 

Dukes of course carries ridiculous character and anger management issues as baggage.  The theory is that moving him away from Tampa Bay could calm him down. In the past, the Pirates and Marlins have expressed interest in Dukes.

Jacque Jones A Fit For Mets?

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Jacque Jones has become something of a punchline for the commenters on this site.  Cubs fans, who frequent MLBTR disproportionately, think he is worth something decent.  Everyone else does not.  Even as a Cubs fan I have to side with everyone else.

Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times writes today:

"The New York Mets are in the market for outfield help at a time when the Cubs are expected to renew their efforts to trade Jacque Jones."

An update on the Mets’ situation: Shawn Green comes off the DL from a chip fracture in his foot today.  Endy Chavez should miss a month with a hamstring strain.  Moises Alou had fluid drained from his strained quad on Monday, and said at the time he wasn’t close to playing.  Carlos Beltran at least seems recovered from his bruised knee. 

Given that Omar Minaya acquired Green last year, it’s not impossible to envision him snagging Jones on the cheap, hoping for a revival.  Jones still wouldn’t get regular playing time a few weeks from now if both Green and Alou are healthy, however.  Jones makes $4MM this year and $5MM in ’08, and one would assume the Cubs would eat some of that to move him for a warm body.  Even a lukewarm body.

To my knowledge, Jim Hendry has only made one trade with Minaya.  That was Hendry’s December 2003 acquisition of Jose Macias when Minaya was GM of the Expos.  Theo Epstein and Dave Littlefield are Hendry’s favorite trading partners.

Padres, Dodgers Remain Interested In Dye

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Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times has a couple of trade rumors for us this morning.

  • Shaikin reiterates Ken Rosenthal’s scoop that the Padres and Dodgers have interest in White Sox slugger Jermaine Dye.  Shaikin believes the "we won’t trade for prospects" edict from Kenny Williams could be stretched if Jonathan Broxton or Chad Billingsley were made available.    Those guys may have graduated from prospectdom anyway.  Ned Colletti is definitely working the phones for a slugger. 
  • Scott Linebrink is named as an available Padre, but I would not expect Kenny Williams to go for that.  Throw in Clay Hensley or Chase Headley and maybe we have something.
  • Shaikin also mentions that the Tigers have interest in Rangers closer Eric Gagne.  Yes, I understand that most contending teams with bullpen issues will at least show a passing interest in him.  Shaikin seems to indicate that Gagne’s "no-trade protection" is full and would give him leverage to change his current incentive-based contract.

Cafardo On Curt Schilling

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Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wants Curt Schilling signed for 2008 right now, but I still think waiting is wise.  As I said yesterday, Schilling started off 2006 the same way but his performance really diminished in the second half.

Troy Renck of the Denver Post doesn’t see the Red Sox expending any effort to acquire Todd Helton, which makes sense given the play of Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell.  He does mention that Boston still likes Helton, so maybe talks would be revisited if Lowell leaves via free agency this winter.  The Rockies, of course, should leave the door permanently open for Boston.

Indians Interested In Eric Gagne

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According to Sheldon Ocker of the Akron Beacon Journal, Mark Shapiro and the Indians are likely to make a move to acquire a reliever sometime this summer.  Patience with guys like Roberto Hernandez (5.87 ERA) and Fernando Cabrera (5.40 ERA) is wearing thin.

Ocker says the Indians are interested in Rangers closer Eric Gagne.  Gagne has been dominant in his 15 innings, allowing just a single run.  His control has been a little off, but it’s a small sample yet.  Gagne has been handled carefully, spending some time on the DL and only pitching back-to-back days twice.  If the Rangers can keep him healthy for another month or so, some team is going to ignore the health risk and give them a decent player for him.  Gagne does have "no-trade protection," whatever that means.

Other candidates named for the Tribe include David Riske, Tom Martin, Shawn Chacon, Jason Isringhausen, Al Reyes, and Akinori Otsuka.  The latter three are the potential difference-makers.  Ocker says Adam Miller isn’t going anywhere, but few other prospects will be deemed untouchable.  I still doubt any team could pry Jeremy Sowers loose for a reliever.  I’m no prospect guru, but I imagine guys like Brian Barton and Chuck Lofgren (both at Double A) could be attractive trading chips.  Outfielders Franklin Gutierrez and Shin-Soo Choo could be available also.   

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