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Archives for July 2007

Rockies Interested In Torres

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Pirates’ reliever Salomon Torres has backed off his trade request, saying he wants to remain with the team for the rest of his career.  The positive feelings may have been sparked by an earlier-than-expected end to his rehab stint.  If healthy and reasonably effective Torres could be the Pirates’ most popular trading chip despite his newfound desire to stay.

According to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the Rockies have been interested in Torres for a while.  Torres has been worked hard in recent years, but he’s signed through ’08 at a reasonable rate. 

All Eyes On Contreras

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Buster Olney says that Jose Contreras may be the best available starting pitcher at the moment, which speaks to how weak the market is.  Olney lists the Cubs, Braves, Marlins, Indians, and Phillies as teams on hand to watch his six inning, five run performance Sunday night in Baltimore.

To call Contreras the best available indicates that Javier Vazquez is off the market.  Contreras’s challengers still include Matt Morris, Dontrelle Willis, and Jason Jennings.  If the Pirates were to inexplicably consider trading Ian Snell, he’d easily jump to the forefront.  That he’s even available is a dubious rumor at this point.

As for Contreras, his junk might work over in the NL.  Maybe that’s why four of the five teams watching his start reside in that league.  Olney’s scout said he was working at 87-91, though he did touch 94 last night.

Contreras makes another $4MM this year, $10MM in ’08, and another $10MM in ’09.  That shouldn’t scare off too many clubs.  Maybe the Marlins.  With a 2-4% chance at making the playoffs this year the Marlins would be acquiring Contreras more for 2008-09.

Reds Could Trade Arroyo

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Just a small note in Nick Cafardo’s recent column: the Reds could trade 30 year-old starter Bronson Arroyo.

Last year, Arroyo took the National League by storm by posting a 3.29 ERA in a whopping 240 innings.  He led all of baseball with 3851 pitches thrown.  Either the league started figuring him out this year, or the workload caught up to him and contributing to his declining strikeout rate.  Maybe a little of both.

In February of this year, Wayne Krivsky signed Arroyo to a contract extension for 2009-10.  Under his previous contract he’ll get $3.95MM in ’08, and the Reds added a $2.5MM signing bonus to that.  He’ll make $9.5MM in ’09, $11MM in ’10, and has an $11MM club option for ’11 with a $2MM buyout attached.  So basically think $29MM for 2008-10.  It’s not terrible but not a bargain; $10MM is probably the going rate for a guy like Arroyo these days.  Not bad for a guy waived by the Pirates in ’03. 

Woody Paige considers Arroyo one option for the Rockies, but finds it unlikely.  The only past Arroyo trade rumor I know of was back in December of ’05, when he was rumored to be going to Seattle for Jeremy Reed.  The Mariners remain in the hunt for a starter, but Arroyo probably isn’t viewed as much more than an innings-eater by most clubs.  Some other teams possibly looking for a starter include the Braves, Padres,  Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks.

Indians, Brewers Interested In Lofton

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Kenny Lofton is the perfect mercenary.  He’s been with a million different teams, and has 84 games of playoff experience.  Even at age 40, he provides an OBP spark atop the lineup.  He makes $6MM this year for the Rangers, so there’s about $2.6MM left on his contract.  He gets another $100K if he’s traded.

According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Lofton has "drawn significant interest from Cleveland and Milwaukee."  Other teams are checking him out as well.  It’d be fun to see Lofton back with the Tribe, the team he’s best known for.  He actually came up as an Astro though. 

As a Cubs fan I’d welcome Lofton back to Chicago.  After abandoning the Alfonso Soriano experiment, the Cubs have employed Angel Pagan, Jacque Jones, and Felix Pie in center.  None have hit particularly well.  I would’ve signed Lofton this winter, working Pie in carefully. 

Grant’s column also mentions Sammy Sosa, who is drawing a little bit of interest.  With his OBP down to .294, Sosa is being sold as a lefty-masher instead of a regular.  Grant believes the Twins and Yankees might find him useful.   

Braves Want Young Impact Pitcher For Salty

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Back on June 24th, Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette mentioned that the Pirates inquired as to the availability of catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.  At that point the required bounty was thought to be a frontline starting pitcher like Mark Buehrle.

Today, Kovacevic clarifies: the Braves want an impact-caliber young pitcher.  That makes sense.  The Pirates have a couple of those: Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell.  They’d have to give one up to get Salty.  Such a trade would be excellent for Atlanta but wouldn’t really seem to move the Pirates forward.

While shaky in terms of confirmation, we do have one report that indicates the Pirates could trade Snell this month.  Snell is 25, healthy, and a long ways from free agency.  He’s been the eighth best pitcher in the National League this year according to VORP.  Better than Roy Oswalt, Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, or Cole Hamels.  It’s been quite a breakout season for Snell, and he’s improved his efficiency greatly.  He averaged 5.81 innings per start in ’06 and increased that all the way to 6.76 per start this year.

Towers On Padres’ Trade Possibilities

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The Padres are currently dead last in on-base percentage in the National League, at .313.  They’re fourth from last with a .390 SLG (and the Pirates are threatening for that #13 ranking).  The road rankings are a tad less bleak, as the Friars are 11th in OBP and 6th in slugging.  On the other hand, the Padres easily have the best pitching in the NL.

Nonetheless, Padres GM Kevin Towers is focused on adding a starting pitcher and a bench player.  To be fair, he’s still waiting to see what kind of boost recent additions Michael Barrett and Milton Bradley can bring.

Knowing Towers’ favorite trading partners, who might he hit up for the starting pitcher?  Since 2001, Towers has made multiple trades with the following GMs:  Brian Cashman (5), Theo Epstein (5), Bill Bavasi (4), Billy Beane (3), Omar Minaya (3), Jim Hendry (3), Jon Daniels (2), and Walt Jocketty (2).

Bavasi and Minaya are probably both in the market for starters, so we can count them out.

One intriguing name is Andy Pettitte, but the Yankees would be conceding the 2007 season.  Their playoff chances are still in the 14-21% range, according to Baseball Prospectus.  So don’t count on this one.

Fun idea for an August trade: the Padres bring Matt Clement back.  His salary would easily get through waivers.  Clement is currently at about 70% effort right now, so he’s a long shot to help.  But it would be kind of cool.

The A’s could trade southpaws Joe Kennedy or Lenny DiNardo.  Esteban Loaiza is an option; he could be back by the deadline.  He’s another possible August trade candidate, with $7MM coming to him in ’08.

Jim Hendry’s been trying to unload Wade Miller for a while now, but like most of the names I’ve mentioned, he’d hardly be better than what the Padres have in-house. Jon Daniels might unload Jamey Wright, while the Cardinals are probably getting sick of Kip Wells.  Nothing to see here.

Towers last dealt with Brian Sabean of the Giants about four years ago, getting Clay Hensley for Matt Herges.  The pair could match up again on Matt Morris.  I don’t believe Towers has ever made a deal with Tim Purpura, but the Astros likely deem Jason Jennings and Woody Williams expendable.

Towers last made a deal with Kenny Williams five years ago, sending him D’Angelo Jimenez.  The two GMs should have plenty to talk about this month, as Williams has many starters to offer. [Correction: it seems the two GMs last hooked up on the Geoff Blum deal in ’05.  Thanks to Nicholas for the tip.]

The problem is that the Padres don’t have much to deal with given their prospects.  They need Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Cesar Carrillo had TJ surgery.  Cedric Hunter has been disappointing.  Kyler Burke is with the Cubs now.  Towers could trade an infielder – Matt Antonelli or Chase Headley.  Outfielder Chad Huffman and catcher Nick Hundley also look promising.

Red Sox Will Pursue A-Rod This Winter

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According to Bill Madden and Mark Feinsand, the Red Sox will make a "huge push" for Alex Rodriguez this winter if he opts out of his contract.  The New York Daily News writers heard this from multiple sources.

Madden and Feinsand’s source seems to indicate the push for A-Rod would be driven by team president and CEO Larry Lucchino.  In other words, this wil go past Theo Epstein (Buster Olney indicated today that he’d be loathe to tie up 20% of the payroll in one player).

The Red Sox entered 2007 with a $143MM payroll, up $23MM from 2006.  Here are the major changes we can expect for 2008:

Additions:
$2MM more for Manny Ramirez
$1MM more for Julio Lugo
$2MM more for Daisuke Matsuzaka
$3.5MM more for Josh Beckett
$1.25MM more for Coco Crisp

An additional $9.75MM in escalating salaries

Subtractions:
$13MM for Curt Schilling
9.5MM for Matt Clement
$9MM for Mike Lowell
$2.81MM for Eric Hinske
$4MM for Joel Pineiro
$2.8MM for Mike Timlin

$41.11MM off the books

The Red Sox are essentially gaining $31MM to play with for 2008, if they are to keep payroll around $143MM.  That gels nicely with the expected salary of Rodriguez.  And the team isn’t overflowing with needs – they could conceivably just replace Schilling with Clay Buchholz and keep Julian Tavarez around as the fifth starter.  And maybe they’ll toss another $6MM or so toward crappy veteran relievers.  The trio of Papelbon, Okajima, and Delcarmen could be cheap and effective. 

Bottom line: the Red Sox could sign A-Rod this winter and enter 2008 with a reasonable $150MM payroll (less than a 5% increase and still far less than the Yankees).

Rosenthal’s Latest Video: A-Rod, Willis

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There’s a new video up with Ken Rosenthal contributing.  Let’s see what the man had to say this time:

  • According to Rosenthal, Alex Rodriguez will opt out, and he will get $30MM a year.  The coverage of this story is just beginning, unfortunately.
  • The Marlins have been telling teams they won’t move Dontrelle Willis; they think they’re still in contention.  The Fish are 7.5 out in the NL East and 8 out for the Wild Card.  The simulations I’ve seen give the Marlins a 1-3% chance at making the playoffs.  Would Willis command a stronger package of prospects if dealt now or during the offseason?  Dave George thinks his stock will continue to fall, and he needs a change of scenery (Willis heard boos at home for maybe the first time last night).  However, Rosenthal’s contention is supported by Juan C. Rodriguez – apparently, only one scout was at Willis’s start last night (a Royals guy who lives in Florida anyway).

Mike Plugh On Koji Uehara: Part 2

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Have you heard about 32 year-old righthanded starter Koji Uehara?  He’s a free agent likely to come over from Japan to MLB this winter (no posting fee).  I wanted to learn more about him, so I consulted the authority on such matters: Mike Plugh.  Mike runs the Uehara Watch blog.  He also has Matsuzaka Watch and writes for Baseball Prospectus. 

You can read Part 1 of our Q&A here; a few additional questions are below.

Do you know of any specific teams that are expected to pursue Uehara?  I’ve read that the Angels like him.

I think the Angels are the team to watch with Uehara, simply because the drafted him out of college many years ago. He almost came to the Majors as a 23-year old, but the lure of the Yomiuri Giants proved too strong to pry him away. There’s a relationship there, albeit one from the distant past. Other than the Angels, I think you’ll see a lot of teams trying to get in on the action. There’s a huge market for Japanese players around the Major Leagues that is only growing. The Mets are very eager to get into Japan again. The Cubs seem to be active as well, and perhaps the Braves. The list may include every MLB club, so it’s a matter of money in the end, just like every other free agent. Would he play for the Mariners with Ichiro in center and Johjima is his backstop? Maybe. A lot of intriguing scenarios are out there.

Tell us a little bit about Koji as a person.

As for his personality, Uehara is very easygoing. He’s a funny guy by all accounts with a good sense of humor. He likes to keep things relaxed, but he’s extremely professional as are almost all Japanese athletes. He has a typically disciplined work ethic and is very focused in practice and on the field. He’d fit in virtually anywhere, although I think he’ll want to play on a winner if given a reasonable choice. He’s over 30 and may have a small window of opportunity to contribute to a championship ballclub.

Royals Possess Coveted Relievers

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There’s seemingly some sentiment that the Royals don’t want to break up their bullpen by trading anyone.  I think that’s kind of silly, given the volatility of relievers and the Royals’ chances at contending in 2008. Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star names four relievers on which Dayton Moore is getting phone calls:

Octavio Dotel – Dotel was a $5MM gamble, and he’s been decent so far.  He can earn another few hundred thousand in incentives and also has a $5.5MM player option for ’08.  If he exercises that, the team can still void it.  After a late start he’s got eight saves, a 3.50 ERA, and an 11.0 K/9.  However, he’s hit a bit of a rough stretch recently. I don’t see him fetching much in the way of compensatory draft picks if he changes teams via free agency this winter, so trading him is a good idea.  The Indians and Rockies have interest, and don’t forget that the Red Sox made him an offer in December. 

David Riske – The Royals also tossed $2.25MM at Riske for ’07 and added a $2.85MM club option for ’08.  Riske has his strikeout rate up somewhat but his 2.21 ERA doesn’t match up with the amount of baserunners allowed.  If I was running the team I’d trade both he and Dotel and pat myself on the back for signing them in the first place.  However I’m guessing the Royals will want to keep one of these guys.

Jimmy Gobble – Gobble is more than just a hilarious name; he owns a nifty 2.70 ERA.  He’s walking a tightrope though, allowing 1.67 baserunners per inning.  He’d make a decent lefty specialist and there’s no reason the Royals need to be paying him a million bucks next year.  Gobble is quite far from free agency but will get a raise in arbitration. 

Zack Greinke – Despite a 3.57 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in relief, you get the feeling Greinke will end up a successful starter one day.  He’s easily the most coveted of the four mentioned here, as he’s 23 and quite talented.  The Royals may try him as their closer this year if they hang on to him; he’s got the stuff for it.  Greinke seems past last year’s anxiety issues thankfully.  I’m not sure what the Royals could get in return for him that would be better than just keeping and developing him.

The Royals just added to their pen actually, picking up righty Roman Colon from Detroit for a player to be named later.  Despite a clubhouse scuffle that earned him a felonious assault charge, Moore said today that he’d trust Colon in his house with his family.  He goes way back with Colon as both worked for the Braves.

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