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Archives for November 2007

Santana Has Full No-Trade Clause

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The fine Cot’s Baseball Contracts site indicates that Johan Santana only received full no-trade protection for 2008 if he finished top three in the Cy Young voting.  However, I do not believe that is accurate.

There are multiple reports from good reporters with solid sourcing indicating that Santana has a full no-trade clause.  There’s Kat O’Brien, Buster Olney, Michael Silverman, and Joe Christensen all saying it’s full.  It’s safe to assume that Santana controls his own fate and can kill any deal.  Perhaps he’d just want compensation to waive the clause, or perhaps he’d demand a record contract extension worth over $20MM per year.    

Brewers Looking For A Closer

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The Brewers missed out on Francisco Cordero by just $4MM.  They didn’t feel Cordero was worth more than Billy Wagner, though Wagner signed several years ago.  Scott Linebrink also left for greener pastures.  Though GM Doug Melvin is giving the idea lip service, he can’t be serious about entering next season with Derrick Turnbow back at closer.  There is one internal option I like – Dave Bush closed in college.

The trade market offers Joe Nathan and Chad Cordero, according to Tom Haudricourt.  Jose Valverde, Kevin Gregg, Ryan Dempster, Brian Fuentes, Salomon Torres, Dan Wheeler, and Huston Street could be available as well.  An excess of starting pitching could be used to obtain one of these guys.

Melvin still has plenty of free agent options: Eric Gagne, Octavio Dotel, Keith Foulke, Troy Percival, and Kerry Wood.  He could even get creative with a starter like Brett Tomko or Randy Wolf, if he doesn’t like the Bush idea.  Al at the fine Al’s Ramblings blog doesn’t seem terribly concerned.

Hunter Signing Won’t Stop Rolling Angels

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UPDATE: Some added info from yesterday’s Miami Herald.  It sounds like the Angels are willing to part with Reggie Willits, Howie Kendrick, and a catcher.  Not a bad haul.  However the Marlins are apparently insisting on the inclusion of top pitching prospect Nick Adenhart as well.

Just because the Angels dropped $90 million on Torii Hunter doesn’t mean they won’t continue to make deals this off-season. Specifically, the two players most linked to them — Miguel Cabrera and Miguel Tejada — are still hot on the radar, according to GM Tony Reagins.

"All I can say is I’m going to be looking at some other things to make us better," Reagins said. "The winter meetings are coming up, and I’m sure we’ll have more discussions. I’m going to be open-minded."

Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times opines that the acquisition of Hunter could make it easier to incur the loss of Howie Kendrick, a potential major chip in a Cabrera trade. Other players sought by the Marlins are catcher Jeff Mathis, pitcher Nick Adenhart, and one of Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, or Ervin Santana. That’s quite steep asking price, but in line with the Marlins demands from the Dodgers of Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Andy LaRoche, and one more prospect.

The deal for Tejada would be less costly, but could cost the Angels SS Erick Aybar. Since the Halos want to move Tejada to third, that could mean starting Chone Figgins at short, or, as Tim mentioned the other day, bringing back David Eckstein.

Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.

Mets Eyeing Freddy Garcia

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The Mets have already inquired on free agent Freddy Garcia, though he won’t be ready to pitch until June.  Garcia had very serious surgery on his labrum and rotator cuff.  He’s thinking of pulling a Roger Clemens, allowing a contender to add a top-rotation guy midseason without giving up prospects.  Yes, I know Roger didn’t quite fill that role in ’07.

My guess is that Garcia could end up getting around $8MM for a half-season.  Maybe he’s not a $16MM pitcher, but when teams are in need and there are no free agent alternatives, there’s bound to be some inflation. 

That said, Garcia’s agent will still be discussing him at the Winter Meetings to gauge interest.  I imagine if a huge offer came in (say $9-10MM for ’08 with a player option for ’09) Garcia might go for it at that time.

Thoughts On The Cordero Signing

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The only thing between Francisco Cordero and a massive four-year, $46MM deal with the Reds is a physical.  John Fay notes that the Reds are taking payroll up past $80MM, $5MM more than he’d previously speculated.  Might the Reds take it even higher to add a Carlos Silva type?  They could always backload a contract, too.

The Brewers have to be annoyed that their two Type A free agent relievers signed with protected 2008 first-round picks.  What’s worse, Cordero improves one of their direct competitors.

We can talk about Cordero being overpaid, about how he’ll earn $165K per inning.  But at least the Reds acknowledged that David Weathers isn’t the shut-down arm you want in the ninth inning.

The Cordero signing helps, but the team’s biggest need remains unaddressed.  Reds’ starters posted a 5.10 ERA in 2007, worst in the NL.  I like Arroyo and Harang at the top, and don’t mind Belisle/Bailey/Cueto at the back.  Add a solid starter and it’s fair to call the Reds a contender.  A.J. Burnett could make sense, as a top groundball pitcher who’s considered available.  And why can’t the Reds mix it up for the big names like Santana, Bedard, Blanton, and Haren? 

Graziano On A Yankees/Santana Trade

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Recently I asked the Newark Star-Ledger’s Dan Graziano about a realistic scenario under which the Yankees could acquire Johan Santana.  His take was a bit different than the standard packages we’ve been hearing.  The Yankees have already had talks with the Twins and are expected to make a strong offer.

MLBTR: Give us your take on a reasonable trade package for Johan Santana that the Yankees would consider offering and the Twins would consider accepting.

Dan Graziano: The Twins will need at least one good, proven, major-league player and a couple of prospects in exchange if they decide to deal Santana. Many people have suggested that the Yankees would need to include Robinson Cano in a deal, and that’s certainly possible. But the Twins have a
young player (Alexi Casilla) they believe can play second base, and their greater need may be in the outfield, especially with Torii Hunter now gone off to Anaheim.

To that end, Melky Cabrera might be more appealing to the Twins than Cano. Let’s assume the Yankees don’t want to include Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes in the deal (though Santana might be the only player for whom they’d consider dealing one of those guys), and that Brian Cashman also wants to hold onto Ian Kennedy. The next best pitcher in the Yankees’ system is probably Alan Horne. I’m thinking the Yankees could offer a package of Cabrera, Horne and outfield prospect Jose Tabata for Santana. That could be appealing to the Twins, though they might ask for a better pitcher than Horne (or another, such as Marquez, in addition to him), though it would depend on the packages being offered by other interested teams such as the Mets and Red Sox.

The thing to remember in dealing with the Twins, however, is that they might not always be after the prospects everybody knows about. The Twins pride themselves on being able to identify and acquire big-time prospects at the Class A level. Players who have come to the Twins’ system at the A-ball level over the years include Jason Bartlett, Lew Ford and Joe Mays, as well as Johan Santana himself and a skinny little hitter whose name at the time was David Arias but later changed his last name to Ortiz and went on to achieve some measure of fame with the Boston Red Sox.

Earlier this year, when the Mets and Twins were talking trade for Luis Castillo, we were trying to figure out who the Mets might have to give up. We were thinking of usual suspects like Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber, but the Twins ended up dealing Castillo for AA catcher Drew Butera and Class  A outfielder Dustin Martin. These were guys I didn’t know much about, but I’m not going to be surprised if Dustin Martin ends up being a good big-leaguer someday. The Twins’ scouts can spot talent when it’s very young. So there may be some players in the Yankees’ system (and in those of other interested teams) that the Twins would like and we don’t even know about yet.

Rumor Royalty: Dan Graziano (Yankees)

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Competition for the top Rumor Royalty honor among Yankees writers was fierce.  Such a popular team demands top rumormongering talent and beat writers with connections.

When I first started writing MLB Trade Rumors, I hadn’t heard much of the Newark Star-Ledger’s Dan Graziano.  That soon changed as I realized Dan was a proficient provider of Yankees and MLB hot stove buzz.  In fact, he’s Rumor Royalty for the Yankees.  His archive for the Star-Ledger can be found here.

Dan was kind enough to answer three questions for MLBTR, and he took the time to answer them thoroughly.  I’ll break the answers into separate posts.    

Francisco Cordero Now A Red

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Ken Rosenthal reports that the Reds have come to an agreement with Francisco Cordero. The terms: four years and $46 million, with a $11 million club option for 2012. It’s still pending a physical. Rosenthal points out that this is the largest four-year deal ever given to a closer.

The Brewers had offered four years at $42 million. There was no mention of whether Cordero gave them a chance to match the Reds offer.

I’m not sure this brings the Reds much closer to contending. Yes, it’s nice to have some security in the ninth inning, but you need guys who can get you there with a lead. The Reds would figure to need another quality starter. But in the weak NL Central, who knows?

Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.

Heyman: Twins Only Offered Santana Four Years

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Update: Joe Christensen clears things up. The original report of five years, $93 million was essentially a four year extension at $20 million per. The extra year and $13 million will be what Santana makes in 2008.

Contrary to what’s been reported, John Heyman of SI reports that the Twins offered Johan Santana just four years, not the previously reported five. The offer was reportedly worth $80 million, which puts it short of the five years and $93 million we’d been hearing since last weekend. It would exceed that offer, though, in terms of average annual value.

Heyman speculates that the Twins and Santana could be $50 million or more apart, increasing the likelihood that the left-handed ace will be dealt, possibly as soon as the Winter Meetings, which begin December 3rd. Just judging from past Winter Meetings, I’d find it surprising if a team was able to broker such a deal that week. If we’re going to see Santana traded, it might take some more time.

From there, Heyman lists the teams we’ve all heard a thousand times as suitors for Santana: Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers. And he also lists their trade chips, which we’ve also heard plenty of times before.

My take is that the Twins won’t accept anything less than two elite prospects and another one or two slightly lesser, but still high-profile talents. The teams with the best hitters might win out, since the Twins are stocked with pitching.

Should an acceptable offer not emerge, the Twins could head into the season with a rotation of Santana, Francisco Liriano, Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, and Kevin Slowey. Glenn Perkins is another option, should one of the bottom two prove ineffective or become injured. That rotation would be among the tops in the AL, and would probably help the Twins contend in 2008. However, they’re certainly going to need another bat or two. We’ve seen reports that Garza could be shopped with those intentions.

Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.

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