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Archives for November 2007

Odds and Ends: Santana, Hunter

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Let’s kick off the morning with some odds and ends, absent any earth-shattering rumors.  I’ll keep adding to this post.

  • Awesome inside look at the Torii Hunter deal via Bob Nightengale.  Hunter’s first choice outside of Minnesota was the Cardinals, but they weren’t interested.
  • Hunter – not overpaid?  So says J.C. Bradbury.
  • Still some confusion about Johan Santana’s no-trade clause.  Buster Olney says it’s full and doesn’t indicate that the rights change on any certain date.  Matthew Cerrone says it’s a full NTC only until Opening Day ’08, when it switches to 12 teams.  Those are not mutually exclusive comments, so I guess we’ll see.
  • Phil Rogers doesn’t think the Cubs will re-sign Kerry Wood.  He also sees the Giants in the lead for Miguel Cabrera now.
  • My coworker Jonathan makes a good point – thought the Sox wouldn’t give four-year deals to pitchers?  They made a huge fuss over Mark Buehrle.  Suddenly Scott Linebrink is worthy of breaking the rule again?  Some are skeptical.
  • Bobby Kielty typically smacks around left-handed pitching (Brian Fuentes for example).  He’ll hook on as some team’s fourth outfielder as a free agent.  He’d like to return to Boston, but that would require a Coco Crisp trade. Rob Bradford names the Twins, Braves, Rangers, and White Sox as possibilities otherwise. 

Graziano On Pettitte

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I recently asked Yankees Rumor Royalty winner Dan Graziano about free agent Andy Pettitte.  Graziano covers the Yankees for the Newark Star-Ledger.

MLBTR: What’s your best guess on Andy Pettitte’s decision for 2008?

Dan Graziano: Among the players I’ve ever covered, if there’s one who might leave a guaranteed $16 million on the table in exchange for early retirement and an increase in time at home with his family, it’s Andy Pettitte. However, I don’t believe there is such a player. My gut says Andy will agonize for a while — maybe even long enough to scare the Yankees into adding another year or an option to the deal — and then come back and play for the Yankees for  $16 million in 2008. But that’s a guess. Which is all I have, and all you asked for.

About MLBTR

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Eric Breier was kind enough to write a piece about MLBTR for the North County Times yesterday.  We received four out of five mouses, which seems pretty solid to me.

Eric’s constructive criticism:

– There’s no readily available information on the site administrator. You can e-mail some guy named Tim, who presumably is running the site. Normally, this wouldn’t be a big deal, but since this person is giving a lot of opinion on the baseball rumors being posted, it would be nice to know his credentials. Is it some baseball-loving grandmother in Maine, or could it be Jack McKeon trying to relive his "Trader Jack" days?

– It would help if the time and date of the postings was a little more prominent.

Eric is right on both counts.  I will have to work on his second suggestion, but the first one shouldn’t be too tough.  I need to create an "about page" so people know who’s cranking out these rumors.  In the meantime, here’s a few paragraphs about me and the site.

MLBTradeRumors.com came about in November of 2005 – you can read about its origins here.  My name is Tim Dierkes.  I’m 25 and married to a wonderful woman named Agnes (good story about how we met, maybe another time though).  Agnes and I just bought a house in Roselle, IL.  I have a full-time job outside of MLBTR.

I am just a regular guy who enjoys writing.  As you can see here I prefer to do it in a conversational style rather than anything formal (I was a business major at UIUC, so I don’t have any special journalism or writing skills.  Favorite book is Catcher In The Rye by the way).  The one topic that I’ve always been obsessed with is baseball hot stove.  As a lifelong Cubs fan it’s often been more interesting than the regular season.  So I combined the two into a hobby, and accidentally helped fill the MLB rumor niche on the web.

While I’m always trying to grow my own network of sources, the vast majority of rumors here come from published sources.  The breakdown might be something like 90% newspaper articles, 5% radio reports (only ones I heard myself or got from trusted readers), and 5% trusted blogs and my own sources.  There are a handful of blogs that, in my mind, have established credibility for the occasional legitimate rumor.

So think of MLBTR as an aggregator of all worthwhile trade and free agent baseball rumors (and a filter of all the crap).  I hope you will also find my analysis and the commenters’ debates and insight to be entertaining.

Rangers Rumors

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T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com has some Rangers notes. Of course, much of it revolves around the outfield, since they missed out on Torii Hunter.

On that front, they’re exploring Kosuke Fukudome, who is reportedly seeking three years and $30 million. Add the Rangers to the Cubs, the Phillies, the Yomiuri Giants and his former team, the Chunichi Dragons. I would toss the Nats and possibly the Twins in that group, and there are probably other teams where Fukudome would fit.

The Rangers have a level of interest in both Aaron Rowand and Andruw Jones, but not nearly to the level that they were interested in Hunter. They won’t go five years at $75 million for Rowand like they did Hunter, and are concerned with Jones’s 2007 drop-off. Mike Cameron is also mentioned, but Jon Daniels has said that "we would like to find a long-term fit for us." Cameron would be little more than a stopgap.

Jose Guillen is also mentioned, though there is little elaboration. I’d bet that many teams are going to wait on the Mitchell Report, in hopes that it drops Guillen’s price tag. Then again, at that point it would only take one aggressive team to scoop him up. I’m betting it won’ be the Rangers, but as we saw with the Hunter deal, many of these moves seemingly come out of nowhere.

Internal candidates include Marlon Byrd and David Murphy, who was acquired in the Eric Gagne trade. The only other options would be available via trade. Sullivan mentions Coco Crisp, Rocco Baldelli, Reggie Willits, and even free agent Scott Podsednik, though he mentions that each has his shortcomings.

Other than mentioning the big names on the trade market, Sullivan brings up the Mets interest in Gerald Laird. He notes that the Mets won’t part with Carloz Gomez or "Felix" (though he really means Fernando) Martinez. There’s a mention of the Mets being willing to talk about Mike Pelfrey or Philip Humber, but that seems foolish. Even if their stocks have fallen over the past year, I don’t see any reason to trade them for a catcher who has had one good year — in part-time duty — and flopped in his first year of over 300 plate appearances.

Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.

Would You Trade Delmon Young For Matt Garza?

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I linked to this article earlier in regards to Francisco Liriano, but I missed a bit at the end:

Trade rumor that won’t die: Twins pitcher Matt Garza for Tampa Bay outfielder Delmon Young.

I can definitely see the positives for both sides in this deal. Garza would give the Rays another MLB-ready young pitcher to add to Scott Kazmir and James Shields. They also have Jason Hammel, J.P. Howell, Andy Sonnastine, and the six-foot-nine monster Jeff Niemann likely to break camp with the team. Arranging those guys between the rotation and the bullpen could work out for the Rays. The move would also allow them to slot Elijah Dukes in right field. Or hey, unlikely as it is, maybe Rocco Baldelli stays healthy (yeah, right).

The Twins would be adding a power bat in Young, a much-needed piece. A trade of Garza likely wouldn’t hold them back from trading Johan Santana, since they’d likely receive a starter in such a deal that could be plugged into the rotation in 2008 (Clay Buchholz/Jon Lester, Phil Hughes, Chad Billingsley, Mike Pelfrey/Phil Humber).

Does anyone see any aspects that would make this deal uneven? Let’s crank out the discussion.

Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.

Pirates Rumors From Bucco Blog

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Jake at Bucco Blog has some hot stove material, in addition to his roundup of Pirates prospects.

The Rays are looking for a shortstop, and Jake hears that they might be interested in Jack Wilson. Jake said he debunked this rumor earlier this month, but there "might be renewed interest." I don’t see it. Wilson has had a few decent years, but with over $14 million left on his contract, I see the Rays taking a cheaper route.

Jake is hearing that the Pirates "we’re not actively shopping any players" line is just a front. According to his source, the Pirates are playing this game in order to generate better trades later on, once the smoke has settled. Teams that missed out on their top targets might be more desperate to trade for, say, Jason Bay or Ian Snell later on.

If the Pirates are willing to gut the roster, would that include fielding offers for Tom Gorzelanny, Matt Capps, and Freddy Sanchez? Jake thinks, and I agree, that Gorz should be as close to untouchable as you can get. He doesn’t think the numbers indicate that Capps can continue his dominance, though his low walk rate certainly helps his case.

Honestly, if Sanchez can fetch anything decent, he needs to be dished. Yeah, he won the batting title in 2006, but he had an average year at the plate in 2007, albeit above average for a second baseman. He’ll be 30 next year, and will start getting expensive. I’d hang on to Gorz, Capps, and Snell, as they’ll all be 25 and under in 2008.

Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.

More Odds and Ends: Kuroda, Pena, Wolf, Percival, Molina

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Tim sent me a couple of items, so let’s create another bullet list:

  • Mariners GM Bill Bavasi and manager John McLaren have met with Hiroki Kuroda yesterday. There is no report of an offer, but it’s believed that four years and $45 million are expected. Kuroda hopes to make his decision on the 29th.
  • Impacto Deportivo, the same site that had first news of the Mets deal with Luis Castillo, reports that Carlos Pena has rejected a three-year, $30 million deal from the Rays. Pena, however, calls the report "a straight lie."
  • Randy Wolf is generating interest from the Padres, Phillies, and Astros. Ken Rosenthal notes that the market for high-risk, moderate-reward pitchers is strong, since the rest of the market isn’t very appealing. This includes Bartolo Colon, Jason Jennings, Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber, Matt Clement, and Kris Benson.
  • The Brewers are in on Troy Percival after losing Francisco Cordero to the Reds. As has been said since the signing, this could also mean that Derrick Turnbow gets another shot in the closer’s role.
  • The Mets inquired about Bengie Molina at the GM meetings, and even though they have acquired Johnny Estrada, they could rekindle talks at the Winter Meetings. Rosenthal notes that the Giants might not want to trade Molina, since they lose considerable leverage because of the $12 million owed to him over the next two years.

Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.

Odds And Ends: Cabrera, Bay, Liriano, Clement, Dotel

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Lots to go over this morning, so this might not be the last bullet point list you see.

  • The Angels and Marlins are progressing in talks for Miguel Cabrera. It’s believed that the Angels are willing to deal players like Reggie Willits, Howie Kendrick, and Jeff Mathis, but the sticking point here is the inclusion of Nick Adenhart. If the Angels want Cabrera, I would have to think Adenhart would be a part of any deal.
  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington says that he is not actively shopping any of his players. However, he acknowledges that if he hears an offer, he’ll have to consider it. Some of his team’s asking prices are "outrageous," he says. This includes players like Jason Bay and Jack Wilson. But the Pirates may choose in the end to dish Bay, since their strength, if any, is the outfield, and Bay is slated to make $13.25 million over the next two years. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s costly when you’re working with a paltry $50 million budget. Surely Huntington would love to deal Wilson, though he denies it. He might have trouble finding a partner on that one.
  • Though the Twins deny it, any Johan Santana deal might be dependent on the status of Francisco Liriano. The 24-year-old "hasn’t had a single setback" in his recovery from ligament replacement surgery last October. He’s completed his rehab program, and might pitch in the Dominican this winter. He’s expected to be ready in February fo Spring Training.
  • Add the Pirates to the list of teams interested in Matt Clement. It now spans the Rockies, Diamondbacks, Royals, Padres, and Blue Jays in addition to the Bucs. However, with their payroll cap, Clement might not be feasible.
  • The Tigers remain interested in closer Octavio Dotel. There is no word on whether the team has offered him a contract.

Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.

Graziano On Yankees’ Center Field

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I recently asked Yankees Rumor Royalty winner Dan Graziano for his thoughts on some hot stove queries.

MLBTR: If Melky Cabrera is dealt, do you see the Yanks going after a free agent center fielder?  If so, who do you think would be first on their list?

Dan Graziano: If the Yankees were planning to deal Cabrera, I’m sure they would have been involved in the Torii Hunter sweepstakes. Because they weren’t a factor there, I’m thinking right now that they don’t intend to trade Cabrera.

Of course, if the right opportunity (such as the one detailed previously) presented itself, they could deal him. If that happened, I’m sure they’d express interest in Andruw Jones and Aaron Rowand. There are people in the Yankees’ organization who think Rowand’s hard-nosed, blue-collar style would be a nice addition to a team full of superstars. As of now, though, they don’t have any place to play him. If that changed, they’d be involved. And of course, if they couldn’t get Jones or Rowand, they could always move Johnny Damon back to center until they found a better solution.

Morning Yankees Rumors

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Just a few things I found scouring the Internets this morning.

  • The team has finalized their marketing deal with Alex Rodriguez regarding his breaking of home run milestones. He’ll receive $6 million for reaching the home run totals of Willy Mays, Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, and Barry Bonds. And then he’ll get another $6 million for homer No. 763. Yes, that’s $12 million for two homers. The deal has been approved by MLBPA and the Commissioner’s office.
  • Peter Gammons, via Buster Olney, reports that the Twins will be seeking three players in any trade to the Yankees of Johan Santana: Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Austin Jackson. Olney thinks that when combined with the $150 million financial commitment that will come along with the deal, the Yankees will not do it. I’d personally not like to give up Jackson, a highly regarded prospect when drafted who just had a breakout season in 2007.
  • Steve Serby of the New York Post has a Q & A with Hank Steinbrenner. If you liked Hank before, you’ll like this. If you think he’s a braying ass, you’ll continue thinking the same.
  • Ian O’Connor thinks that Omar Minaya needs to steal the Yankees thunder and beat them to the punch for Johan Santana. Personally, I think that’s the worst reason to do anything.

Joe Pawlikowski is co-author of River Ave. Blues.

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