Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus tell us not to expect the Yankees to offer arbitration with Alex Rodriguez and Scott Boras. However, Brian Cashman told Joel Sherman "of course" the Yankees would offer it, because of the two draft picks involved.
Sherman notes that there’s a "very slim possibility" of Rodriguez accepting, and then getting a $30-40MM one-year contract as a result of the hearing. He adds that A-Rod would lose his no-trade clause in this scenario. This would be a great scenario for the Yankees. Rodriguez on any kind of one-year commitment is a sweet deal, and he’d be very trade-able. One year, $40MM is a lot easier to stomach for any team than 10 years, $300MM.
If they do offer arbitration and A-Rod declines (the most likely scenario), the Yankees will hope for one of the teams picking 16th-30th in next June’s draft to sign him. That could be the Cubs, Tigers, Mets, Angels, or Red Sox. In those cases the Yankees get that team’s first-round pick. On the flip side, it would not be preferred if the Dodgers, Giants, or any other team picking 1st-15th signs him. Those picks are protected.
Interesting A-Rod side note: one GM surveyed by Jerry Crasnick predicted A-Rod would end up with the Orioles.
