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Archives for March 2008

Miguel Cabrera Signs Extension

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4:08pm: John Lowe has the year by year breakdown and adds that there are ten teams Cabrera can be traded to without his permission.

TUESDAY, 12:44pm: Cabrera’s seven-year extension is official.  $20MM a year is a solid price for 25 year-old superstar who has never been injured.  And Cabrera sets himself up for one more massive deal, just like A-Rod did.

MONDAY, 8:57am: Though we don’t have an official announcement and press conference from the Tigers yet, it’s obvious that an agreement has been reached.  Sabernomics thinks Cabrera will be worth $268MM over this time period; PECOTA feels differently.  Cabrera will only be 32 when this contract ends.  Though their ages don’t match up, Jim Salisbury and Todd Zolecki believe this deal could be a comparable for Ryan Howard.

SUNDAY, 8:52pm: Danny Knobler clarifies: it’s a seven-year extension worth around $140MM, starting with the 2009 season.  Regardless, it’s a team-friendly deal.

12:18am: According to ESPN’s Enquire Rojas, Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera is set to sign an eight-year, $153.3MM extension.  That’s $19.16MM per year for 2009-16.  Definitely less than I expected him to sign for.  We’ll examine the deal more closely when details become available.   

Cubs Sign Reed Johnson

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1:48pm: The Chicago Tribune says the deal is for $1.3MM.  BP’s Nate Silver weighs in on the move here.

12:35pm: Levine now reports that the Cubs have signed Johnson.  For a team focused on winning now, it’s not a bad move.  Only drawback might be the Murton situation.  Meanwhile, Evan Grant says the Rangers reduced their demands for Marlon Byrd but the Cubs still decided to pass.

11:41am: It’s all Reed Johnson, all the time here at MLBTR.  Bruce Levine of ESPN 1000 says the Cubs will make a contract offer to Johnson once he clears waivers about twenty minutes from now.  Cubs GM Jim Hendry has already been in contact with Arn Tellem, Johnson’s agent.  Matt Murton might be the odd man out if the Cubs complete the signing.  I’ll update this post if more info rolls in today.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Reed Johnson

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On Sunday the Jays released Reed Johnson, but he will not remain unemployed long as several teams need help in the outfield or on the bench. Ken Rosenthal notes that the Cubs, Red Sox, Rays and Rangers have shown interest in Johnson, while Jim Baubach added the Mets to the equation. That is a lot of interest in a player that has 42 home runs, 28 steals and a career OPS+ of 95 in 4.5 seasons. Then again, with one week prior to the regular season, there are not a lot of options available. It’s not like a player that posted a 170 OPS+ in 2007 is available…Oh wait…Never mind…Let’s take a look at what is being written about Johnson in the Blogosphere.

  • Mets Geek believes that Johnson is exactly what the Mets need, noting that he would be the right-handed bat that the bottom of the Mets order desperately needs. They also like his defense and the fact that he comes without having to surrender players.
  • MetsBlog is not convinced that Johnson is much of an upgrade over Angel Pagan or Brady Clark and feels the Mets prefer Xavier Nady but are content with Pagan if Nady cannot be acquired.
  • MetsMerized was against trading for Johnson but doesn’t see how Omar Minaya can pass on signing him now.
  • Baseball Crank sees Johnson as a good fit for the Mets, noting that he has a solid career line against lefties, but concedes that what little power he has shown came at the hitter-friendly Skydome, or whatever they are calling it these days.
  • Cobra Brigade sees the Cubs signing either Johnson or Jeff DaVanon, whichever comes at the cheaper price.
  • Crawley’s Cub Kingdom feels the Cubs are going to make a deal and that a player like Johnson may fit better than a Coco Crisp or Marlon Byrd, both of whom may complain about playing time and impede the progress of Felix Pie.

Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.

Padres, Rays Interested In Jeremy Reed

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According to John Hickey of the Seattle PI, the Padres and Rays are eyeing Mariners center fielder Jeremy Reed.  Hickey notes that the Padres have renewed interest and have liked him for quite a while.  And he wonders whether Rays would surrender a young pitcher.  Hickey believes Reed might still be on the Ms’ roster as a showcase.  The 26 year-old does have options left, though. 

The White Sox drafted Reed in the second round back in ’02.  He made it to Double A as a 22 year-old in ’03 and hit over .400 in a half season.

Reed injured his wrist playing for Team USA that November, but said it wasn’t the cause of his poor spring with the Sox in ’04.  Instead, a partial shoulder dislocation may have been to blame.  Reed wasn’t terribly impressive in his first stint at Triple A, but he was young for his level (and still made the Futures Game).

Days after that game Kenny Williams shipped Reed to Seattle as the centerpiece of the Freddy Garcia trade.  Reed hit better at Triple A as a member of Rainiers.  Then he posted a tiny-sample .397 average in a September cup of coffee.

Reed displaced Randy Winn as the Mariners’ starting center fielder to begin the ’05 season.  He hit poorly in all months outside of May, however.  He had two injuries on the year – a concussion in July and a season-ending torn left wrist ligament in September.

Reed was a hot commodity in the 2005-06 offseason, with the Red Sox offering Matt Clement or Bronson Arroyo. The Ms added Matt Lawton in December but Reed stayed put.

In Spring Training of ’06, Reed injured his right wrist.  It was originally diagnosed as broken but turned out to be a 12-18 year-old fracture.  He was ready for Opening Day, but hit his way out of the lineup by May.  Reed then broke his thumb in July, a season-ending injury.  Reed was healthy by spring ’07 but didn’t make the team.  He posted an .806 OPS at Triple A and earned a September call-up.  In 22 ABs this spring, Reed’s hit .318/.407/.364.   

Reed looks like a decent buy-low pickup, but his star has faded from all the injuries.  His destiny may be as a fourth outfielder.  He’s got two years of service time, so he could be arbitration-eligible after this season.

Odds and Ends: Giles, Crisp, A-Rod

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Nothing huge cooking this morning, so here are some odds and ends.

  • Doesn’t look like the Dodgers will acquire Marcus Giles.
  • Rany Jazayerli writes about how Kansas City is home to many of the country’s best baseball journalists.  On a related note, the Star’s Sam Mellinger has a chat with Brian Bannister on his blog.
  • Coco Crisp rattles off the trade rumors he’s heard: Cubs, Sox, A’s, Padres.  No deal appears imminent, though Crisp was healthy enough to pinch-run this morning.
  • John Harper snags an exclusive with Alex Rodriguez.  A-Rod admitted he chose the Rangers over the Mets for money and feared he was going down that road again this past winter.
  • Roch Kubatko writes that Brian Roberts was pulled from the lineup today for back pain, hoping to nip trade speculation in the bud.
  • The Phillies have to make a decision on Kris Benson today.
  • Aaron Gleeman weighs in on the Joe Nathan extension.  Buster Olney talked to baseball execs who felt the Twins should’ve added Nathan’s money to their Johan offer.

Mets Like Reed Johnson

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Yesterday both Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark named the Cubs as the team in hardest on Reed Johnson.  Meanwhile Joel Sherman and Bart Hubbuch indicated the Mets weren’t terribly interested.

Jim Baubach of Newsday sings a different tune this morning.  He says the Mets had internal discussions about Johnson planned for yesterday, and Omar Minaya admitted he was an attractive, affordable option.

Johnson makes sense for both clubs, though the Mets may have better internal options for a fourth outfielder.

Radio Appearance, First-Ever MLBTR Chat

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I’ve got a couple of fun mini-events on tap.

  • I’ll be on Valparaiso Student Radio on Wednesday at about 9:15am CST.  Listen live here.  (Note: I originally wrote that this was today but it’s not).
  • You can listen to my appearance University of Maryland Radio yesterday at this link.
  • From 2-3pm CST, I’ll be doing the first-ever MLBTR chat.  It’ll be right here on the site and you’ll be able to submit questions very easily.  Don’t miss it!

Survey Results: PECOTA

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I recently posted this survey question:

Sometimes, information from Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA player projection system is used on MLBTR. Should we continue to post this information?

Over 2,000 MLBTR readers responded; about 90% said yes, continue using it.  The basic vibe of the comments was that more info can never hurt, even if we all acknowledge that a projection system isn’t gospel.

Many readers requested info explaining what PECOTA is and how it works.  Wikipedia does a very nice job giving the basics.  This is an oversimplification, but basically PECOTA projects a player’s future performance by looking at comparable players throughout baseball history.

How did PECOTA do trying to predict the 2007 season?  It led all projection systems with a .451 correlation coefficient for pitchers.  (A perfect set of predictions would have a coefficient of 1.0).  PECOTA also had the highest correlation coefficient in predicting hitters for ’07, at .627.  ZiPS, a free system from Baseball Think Factory, was close behind.  As you can see, pitcher performance is very difficult to project.

Brewers To Focus On Fielder, Braun

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Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun form an awesome tandem; the two Milwaukee sluggers could combine for 90 home runs this year.  According to Tom Haudricourt, they’ve been identified as the first two targets for contract extensions.  Haudricourt says the Crew will want to buy out at least one year of free agency in either case.

Fielder is set to reach arbitration for the first time next year.  Scott Boras mentioned "general discussions" with Doug Melvin on the topic.  I imagine Fielder’s arb years could cost more than $35MM going year to year.  Then he’d want at least $18MM for the free agent year.

Talks thus far with Braun haven’t been serious, though preliminary contact was made a month ago.  At that time Troy Tulowitzki’s deal was considered a possible framework.  Most likely, the Brewers’ waiting until late May to call Braun up last year pushed his first year of arb eligibility to 2010.

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