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Archives for October 2008

Uggla Trade Unlikely?

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According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, Marlins ownership will allow the team to keep all of its many arbitration-eligible players, if that is the front office’s preference.  The Marlins won’t be forced to make payroll-motivated deals; instead, they’ll just look for good baseball trades like any team.  Greg Cote suggested the same a few weeks ago, noting that the Marlins will shift focus to pitching, speed, and defense but won’t cut payroll just for the sake of it. 

Olney figures they’ll keep Dan Uggla:

It appears very unlikely they will deal Uggla and others, and they are poised to be the Rays of 2009.

Still, I wouldn’t rule it out.  The Angels are already said to have Uggla on the radar if Mark Teixeira leaves.  Uggla is also considered a good fit for the Giants.  The Marlins lost leverage when it was thought they had to move Uggla and others for payroll reasons.  It’s beneficial to get the word out that they can afford all of the arb-eligible players, even if it’s not true.

Odds and Ends: Gillick, Cashman, Burnett

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Links for Tuesday…

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Mets.  Their likely 2009 commitments:

C – Brian Schneider – $4.9MM
C – Ramon Castro – $2.5MM
1B – Carlos Delgado – $12MM
2B – Luis Castillo – $6MM
SS – Jose Reyes – $5.75MM
3B – David Wright – $7.5MM
IF –
IF – Argenis Reyes – $400K
LF – Dan Murphy – $400K
CF – Carlos Beltran – $18.5MM
RF – Ryan Church – $2MM+
OF – Endy Chavez – $2.05MM
OF – Marlon Anderson – $1.15MM

SP – Johan Santana – $20MM
SP – Mike Pelfrey – $1.3125MM
SP – John Maine – $450K+
SP – Jon Niese – $400K
SP – Bobby Parnell – $400K

RP – Scott Schoeneweis – $3.6MM
RP – Aaron Heilman – $1.2MM+
RP – Pedro Feliciano – $1.025MM+
RP – Duaner Sanchez – $850K+
RP – Brian Stokes – $402K
RP – Joe Smith – $400K
RP – Eddie Kunz – $400K

Other commitments: Billy Wagner – $10.5MM

That’s around $104MM committed before arbitration raises to Church, Maine, Heilman, Feliciano, and Sanchez.  Some of those relievers may be gone, but we’ll put the Mets around $110MM after the raises.  They entered 2008 near $138MM, so Omar Minaya could have almost $30MM to spend.

Revamping the bullpen is top priority; we discussed some options here.  A commenter on that post made a good point – maybe the Mets can’t afford to take the ideal approach to building a bullpen.  Overpaying for the sure thing would be justifiable.  I’d still sign Brian Fuentes over Francisco Rodriguez though.  Fuentes may cost half as much overall while providing a similar performance.

The Mets also need to acquire one starting pitcher.  A Randy Wolf type could work, or they could spend additional money for Derek Lowe or A.J. Burnett.  Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia could also be appealing.  With one reliable addition, it’ll be a solid rotation.

Murphy provides flexibility – he could be the starting left fielder, he could play first in the event of a Delgado exercise n’ trade, or he could replace Castillo at second.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Mets go after Raul Ibanez or Juan Rivera, the somewhat reasonable free agent options at left field.  I don’t see them getting into the Dunn/Burrell/Manny price range, but you never know.

Castillo is a problem, though I don’t think it’s imperative the Mets get rid of him.  It was a bad signing from Day 1, and Castillo pretty much performed as expected in 2008 (decent OBP, no power, questionable defense, injury issues).  That is Luis Castillo and it was a year ago.  I suppose you could say his defense was even worse than expected and he missed more time than usual.  Maybe he can bounce back next year.  I wouldn’t assume most of his remaining $18MM just to get Castillo off the roster, but I would entertain swapping him for another bad contract.  Heilman is another player who might be trade bait, and he probably has some positive value.

The Mets have an excellent core for ’09 – three good starting pitchers plus Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Delgado all signed at arguably below-market rates.  Minaya just needs to figure out how to allocate his money between a closer (and maybe a second reliever), a starter, and a left fielder.

Elias Rankings – AL Relievers

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Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts just posted his projected Elias rankings for American League relievers.

  • Type A: Francisco Rodriguez, Damaso Marte, Darren Oliver.  Not an ideal situation for Oliver, as his status will act as a deterrent to other teams if the Angels offer him arbitration and he declines.  The Angels could also get the #25 pick next year if the Mets sign K-Rod.  The Mets lost the #18 pick in ’06 after signing Billy Wagner, and the Phils used it on Kyle Drabek.
  • Type B: Jamey Wright, Dennys Reyes, Alan Embree, Trever Miller.

Peavy Trade Talks Begin

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A nugget from Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune:

Kevin Towers said he has heard from clubs interested in trading for ace pitcher Jake Peavy. "We’re having talks," he said.  The GM said he wouldn’t be surprised if the Peavy talks heat up next month.

MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan wrote today that Peavy said he will only waive his no-trade clause for a National League team.  However, Peavy’s agent Barry Axelrod said Friday that three teams in the American League could entice his client.  The Yankees could be one; we discussed the possibility here.  A possible Peavy trade will be one of the biggest stories at the Winter Meetings in December.

Mets Closer Situation

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It’s well-known the Mets plan to add a closer this winter.  Joel Sherman notes that Omar Minaya does not necessarily have to sign Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes – there are many ways to handle the ninth inning beyond signing one of the two proven closers on the market.

Signing K-Rod or Fuentes is the easy route.  Overpay for an established closer who is likely to have a solid 2009, helping fans and media members forget the bullpen woes of 2008.

It’d be bolder to add Kevin Gregg or Huston Street via trade.  Both have had ninth-inning success in the past, but were dethroned this year.  Street is preferable, as he allows fewer walks.  Hopefully Minaya will bring in several arms beyond the veteran closer, and find the next Grant Balfour, Brad Ziegler or Joakim Soria.  Easier said than done, I know.  But how many times have we seen GMs throw money away assembling free agent bullpens?   

Odds and Ends: Hoyer, Denker, Manny

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Links for Monday…

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Yankees. Their likely 2009 commitments:

C – Jorge Posada – $13.1MM
C – Jose Molina – $2MM
1B –
2B – Robinson Cano – $6MM
SS – Derek Jeter – $20MM
3B – Alex Rodriguez – $32MM
IF – Wilson Betemit – $1.165MM+
IF – Cody Ransom – $400K
LF – Johnny Damon – $13MM
CF – Brett Gardner – $400K
RF – Xavier Nady – $3.35MM+
OF – Melky Cabrera – $462K
DH – Hideki Matsui – $13MM

SP – Chien-Ming Wang – $4MM+
SP – Joba Chamberlain – $400K
SP – Phil Hughes – $407K
SP – Ian Kennedy – $400K
SP – Alfredo Aceves – $400K

RP – Mariano Rivera – $15MM
RP – Damaso Marte – $6MM club option ($250K buyout)
RP – Brian Bruney – $725K+
RP – Jose Veras – $400K
RP – Edwar Ramirez – $400K
RP – Phil Coke – $400K
RP – Mark Melancon – $400K

Buyouts: Jason Giambi – $5MM, Carl Pavano – $1.95MM

Other commitments: Andrew Brackman – $1.1375MM, Juan Miranda – $400K

The Yankees are a bit over $140MM before arbitration raises to Betemit, Nady, Wang, and Bruney.  Maybe after those they’re near $150MM for current players (if Marte’s option is exercised).  Will the Yankees really slash payroll all the way to the $180MM range?  Brian Cashman would still be able to add $30MM in ’09 salaries, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he has more than that.

Jon Heyman says the Yankees want to sign two free agent starters out of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Derek Lowe.  If they land their top target, Sabathia, then Lowe seems more likely than Burnett.  It’d be an ’09 rotation with Hughes, Kennedy, and others battling for one spot.  If Mike Mussina or Andy Pettitte can be re-signed, Joba can slot in fifth and get extra days off.  Depth would be excellent, but signing three starters, each for $12MM or more, could eat up most of the spending money.

The two other much-discussed holes are first base and center field.  Cashman has spoken about wanting a regular first baseman as opposed to shuttling in Posada, Damon, and Matsui.  Possibly available regulars at first base: Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, Adam LaRoche, Mike Jacobs, and Hank Blalock.  The list could expand in coming months.  I do not see the Yanks trading Hughes for Fielder, if some permutation of that deal is available.

If the Yankees somehow sign Sabathia, Teixeira, and another starter, they’ll be looking fantastic for 2009.  It could be done if payroll is in the $200-210MM range again.  Sure, Cano should be better, Matsui and Posada hopefully healthy.  But Abreu could be replaced with Nady and Giambi seems gone.  Tex would add stability, though he has to be seen as a luxury. 

The market for center fielders, whether via free agency or trade, is poor.  It makes sense to see if one of the internal options emerges as a tolerable regular (Gardner, Cabrera, Austin Jackson).  As alluded to earlier, Abreu will probably be offered arbitration, decline, and sign elsewhere (leaving Nady as the right fielder).

The pen doesn’t seem like a major need; Marte on the equivalent of a one-year, $5.75MM deal is reasonable.  Joe at River Ave. Blues tells me Melancon is likely to snag a spot. 

Bottom line: it looks like most of the money will be spent on starting pitching, but Teixeira would sure look nice in pinstripes.

Elias Rankings: AL Starters

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Eddie Bajek attempts to project Elias rankings for American League starters here.

  • Type A: A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina.  Burnett seems likely to decline an offer of arbitration and sign elsewhere, giving the Blue Jays two draft picks as compensation.
  • Type B: Tim Wakefield, Jon Garland, Paul Byrd.  Garland seems most likely to decline an offer of arbitration and sign elsewhere, though Byrd is a candidate.

Week in Review: 10/5 – 10/11

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Let’s kick things off this afternoon with the week in review…

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