Which Free Agents Will Cost A Draft Pick?

It’s important to remember which Type A free agents were offered arbitration, because those players cost a draft pick if signed by a new team.  Ten such free agents remain (the numbers will be explained later):

• Mark Teixeira (98.889)
• Manny Ramirez (93.438)
• Brian Fuentes (86.694)
• Orlando Cabrera (86.000)
• Orlando Hudson (79.911)
• Ben Sheets (79.038)
• Oliver Perez (78.694)
• Juan Cruz (76.627)
• Jason Varitek (76.037)
• Derek Lowe (75.430)

The following teams’ first-round picks for 2009 are protected: Nationals, Mariners, Padres, Pirates, Orioles, Giants, Braves, Reds, Tigers, Rockies, Royals, Athletics, Rangers, Indians, and Diamondbacks.  These teams will not lose their first-round pick if they sign one of the above free agents.

Four Type A free agents who were offered arbitration have signed with new teams:

• C.C. Sabathia (98.110) – Yankees
• A.J. Burnett (89.729) – Yankees
• Francisco Rodriguez (87.196) – Mets
• Raul Ibanez (83.684) – Phillies

The numbers represent each player’s Elias rating.  The numbers determined Type A/B status, but can also come into play if a team ends up signing more than one of these 14.  Thoughts:

• The Yankees’ #26 pick next year goes to the Brewers, unless the Yanks sign Teixeira. In that case the Angels would get it.  If the Yanks sign Manny, the Blue Jays get the Yankees’ third-round pick for Burnett – pretty weak.  In that case the Dodgers would get the Yanks’ second-round pick.
• Unless a new suitor emerges aside from the Yankees and Rangers, the Brewers will not get a first-round pick for Sheets if he leaves.
• The Dodgers won’t be signing Cabrera, which would’ve been the best case scenario for the White Sox.  The Dodgers’ #17 pick remains up for grabs if they are to sign, for example, Hudson, Sheets, Perez, or Varitek.
• Rockies fans would prefer the Cardinals sign Fuentes, giving them the #19 pick.  Otherwise it could be the #27 pick from the Brewers or #33 pick from the Angels (unless the Halos also sign Manny or Tex).
• If the Mets sign Lowe, the Dodgers are stuck with their second-round pick since K-Rod is ranked higher.