Next in our Offseason In Review series, the Cardinals.
Major League Signings
- Matt Holliday, LF: seven years, $120MM. Includes $17MM club option for 2017 with a $1MM buyout. Includes deferred money.
- Brad Penny, SP: one year, $7.5MM.
- Felipe Lopez, IF: one year, $1MM.
- Jason LaRue, C: one year, $950K.
- Total spend: $129.45MM.
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- Skip Schumaker, 2B: two years, $4.7MM.
Trades and Claims
- Claimed Rule 5 P Ben Jukich off waivers from Reds; returned on 3/18/10
Notable Losses
- Rick Ankiel, Joe Thurston, Mark DeRosa, Khalil Greene, Brian Barden, Troy Glaus, Joel Pineiro, Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, John Smoltz, Jarrett Hoffpauir, Mike Parisi
Summary
The Cardinals' offseason was mostly about re-signing Holliday, which finally occurred on January 5th. GM John Mozeliak also overpaid Penny by a few million, but made up for it by getting Lopez at a bargain price.
Summing up the concerns about the Holliday signing: the Cardinals significantly overpaid given the lack of competition, it may be difficult to pay Holliday and Albert Pujols a combined $40MM+ starting in 2012, and the last few years of the contract will not provide good value. ESPN's Jayson Stark says Holliday's only other offers were one-year deals in the $18MM range. The Cardinals-Holliday contract was panned by most executives to whom Buster Olney spoke.
Prior to the Holliday signing, Mozeliak guaranteed a surprising $7.5MM to Penny. Penny offers upside under Dave Duncan's tutelage, though replacing Joel Pineiro's 214 innings of 3.49 ball will be nearly impossible. Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Cards never made Pineiro an offer, because the pitcher wanted multiple years and the team already has three such rotation commitments.
The Lopez signing was easily one of the best of the offseason. The Cardinals waited him out until late February and guaranteed less than many utility players and half-season pitchers received.
The Holliday contract is questionable, but he certainly makes the Cardinals much better in the near future. Their offense projects as one of the best in the NL, and the worst projected ERA among their front four starters is Kyle Lohse's 4.18. The Cardinals are easily the NL Central favorite in 2010.
The Cards look good.
you cant argue about the value of Carp. You can question his health and his spring thus far could possibly indicate a lingering injury (speculation). Wwright was acceptionally solid last year. I think he is your #1 without question. I think that when healthy, these 2 are what give you the advantage in the central. Lohse/Penny….. are all comparible to dempster, wells, marshall, harrang, parra…….. I think you’re offensive will be comparible to chi and mil this year. I just think that if carp and wwright stay healthy the extra wins they bring to the table, as opposed to the other 1-2 punches in the central, will put you over the top. should be an extra 5-7 wins in my book. I’m a cubs fan btw so I hope i’m completely wrong 😀
While I do agree that Carpenter and Wainwright having healthy seasons is key to the Card’s post-season aspirations, I think that our line-up can make up for the shortcomings of our 3-5 SP. Our lineup has no glaring holes like it did in seasons past. Skip, Ras, Albert, Holiday, Ludwick, Yaddy, Freese, Ryan that lineup can score a lot of runs against aces let alone other team’s back of the rotation starters
I dont agree with this st’t. That lineup is compareable to both chi and mil with the only difference being that neither have pujols who is the best hitter the game has seen in quiet some time. In your st’t your assuming that some players have bounce back or betters years (rasmus, ludwick,and some players duplicate good performances from the year past (freese in 17 games and 31 AB’s). You’re assumption has a lot riding ‘hope’. If I was going to argue your dominance in the division I would stick to pitching and dominance would still be a strong word to characterize your advantage.
“Comparable”? Perhaps, but certainly not equal.
Fielder & Braun are good, but no Holliday and Pujols. Freese is the only question for the Cards lineup, whereas the Brew Crew have a few more than that. The Cubs are hoping for many resurgences in their own right. Lopez ‘on the bench’ has to be one of the best proven talents (if not the best) in the NL not guaranteed a starting role.
The Cards lineup (barring injury) is pretty easily the class of the Central and likely 2nd in the NL (Phillies 1st).
Really? better than LA, COL, FLA, LA…..? Really?
I’m getting sick of hear “The Class of…”….. you guys sound a lot like the cubs fans this time last year. that turned out well.
I’m glad you backed up your assumptions with stats. try checking out team stats from
last season. you guys havent gotten that much better offensively.
better than FLA, surely. Better than Col, surely. Better than LA, likely. I’m surprised you didn’t include the Cubs in there. I think they’ve got a serious chance of being a really good offensive club if they manage to get big comeback years from 4 or 5 guys (Soto, Soriano, among others). Yet until that happens, you’ve got to have the Cards on top.
A stump would hit better than Cards third basemen last year (.224./.288/.364)… A whole year of Holliday beats ~350 ABs from Ankiel (.185) Chris Duncan (.220) and Stavinoha (.189). I don’t see you pulling out stats, please don’t make me look up more to show you how baseless your arguments are.
and who would be the 3rd baseman this year that will be hitting better than a stump. Oh, right, that guy that played in 30 some games last year…….. Cant argue on your holliday st’t but i’m not sure he makes you that much better statistically speaking. you speak like you received zero production from the ankiel/duncan.
espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/league/n…
so a rookie 3rd baseman and a improv’t in holliday (substantial) is going to make you better than all the teams that statistically outproduced you last year? ok then
And apparently I cant post my link to last years offensive team stats. check em out on espn’s website. holliday makes you better. Freese is an unknown at third so you have no idea if your production will improve there. the cards are def not the class of the NL. I will put philly, LA, ATL, FL, and maybe COL ahead of you. I’m iffy on the COL. you’re pitching is better than everyone on that list other than ATL and maybe LA. Thats assuming carp stays healthy
i just want to take this time to point out we had 3-count them-3 starters last year that played borderline replacement level, some under replacement level. Ankiel,Duncan,and Wellemeyer all got their fair share of AtBats/starts and produced under what a AAA player would have done.
thank god their gone. i’ll miss ankiel but i won’t miss his bat or inconsistency.
oh yeah, and we didn’t have a bench. at all. joe thurston!!! whoopie!!!!
We don’t have Thurston, we have Mather; Thursty’s a Brave. We also have Flip and Lugo. Tyler Greene, Craig and Stavinoha don’t look too bad so far, and don’t forget Mudflap. But no, none of them knock my socks off; and aside from Yadi’s caddy all of them need more seasoning.
which is why i said we “DIDN’T.” i guess i could have worded that a little better but i knew he went to the braves..wouldn’t have minded his versatility on a minor league deal but in no way does he deserve 200+PA’s like he had last season.
If we’re just talking about hitting, Craig is a guy you should get excited about. Where does he play on the field, might be a different matter, but the kid can hit.
I prefer Baseball reference and Fangraphs, but to answer your pointed question: Yes, those increased stats, plus that Lopez guy coming off the bench, I hear he’s pretty good, will do quite a bit to put the Cards over the rest of the league – excepting Philly, barring injuries, on paper. Granted that’s a lot of conditionals, but hey, isn’t that the conversation?
Ferrariman points out that the Cards had 3 starters perform below replacement level last year, and they still finished top 6 in OPS+. Addition by subtraction.
If you want a better picture of what this club looks like offensively, and I’ll even grant you that Freese can’t hit his weight in the Bigs (however unlikely and although CHONE would disagree: they have him at .269/.335/.442/.777, which I think is a little optimistic, but that’s neither here nor there), sub whatever you think Lopez will produce in for the ’09 3b production and look over the last few months of the ’09 season. You’ll see the team performing very very well offensively (if I’m not mistaken in September/October they were the best hitting team in the NL).
This same argument, as you pointed out, could be made for the Cubs last year. I don’t see what’s wrong with that. Sometimes these things work out. Sometimes they don’t. That’s why they play the games, apparently.
Philly is better but that’s it. You’re really letting your cub bias get the best of you if you think that teams like LA, Atlanta and Colorado are better than the cards.
Definitely not better than LA.
I think it’s close, but edge to Cards… mostly on the weight of Pujols and Holliday being better than Manny and Ethier.
Dodgers are still the class of the West of course, even though Hudson’s gone and Pierre’s BA is gone. If two of the following 3 happen, the Dodgers would be a more formidable lineup, in my opinion: Martin has a comeback year. Loney hits for more power. Furcal gets on base more (preferably higher BA). All pretty achievable, I think.
Not Better than LA? LA had one of the worst offseasons in baseball this year, they’ll be lucky to come in second in the west this year.
ok lets go top to bottom.
skip—furcal. il take skip
ludwick—Dewitt/carroll/belliard. its not even close. ludwick
pujols—-ethier. gee thats a though one.
holliday—kemp/manny. this is a push. but manny didn’t perform much at all last year.
rasmus—manny/kemp. this is the only one so far that il take the latter.
freese—loney. another push. but this one is pointless anyways as freese could be productive or be a bust.
molina–martin. il take molina but i suppose you can bank on martin making a comeback.
ryan—dewitt/carroll/belliard/furcal. eh il take either ryan just because furcal will probably lead off and the other choices aren’t really appealing.
so where are we at…
6-1-1. cardinals win.
Lohse was injured for a large part of last season. Look back to his healthy 2008 under Duncan. 15-6 with a 3.78 era. I’m sure that what the front office is looking at this year. He reverts back to 08 form and he’s a legit #3. Obviously, a 4.78 career ERA is glaring, but I guess you gotta give Duncan credit for Lohse just like with Piniero.
Garcia is flying under the radar for anyone not a Cards fan, I think. If he makes the rotation, I think he goes somewhere around 9-9 with a 4.50.
All in all, the Cards are well balanced up and down lineup. They do have a better lineup than MIL or CHI because, they do have Pujols.
“the only difference being that neither have pujols who is the best hitter the game has seen in quiet some time.”
This statement is just retarded.
how is that st’t retarded? He is the best hitter in the game. If you interchange his stats with DLEE from last year he give the cubs a handful of additional wins. ????????? very colorful response buddy
Why would you compare two teams and then interchange Pujols and Lee’s stats? The reason the Cardinals lineup is so much better is because they have Pujols. Your reasoning makes zero sense.
thats exactly the argument that I was making. you need to look at my OP. I said other than him the cards offensive is compareable to MIL and CHI…………..
but the point is he is their.
what would happen if you subtract fielder from the brewers? or votto from the reds? or a (healthy) ramirez from the cubs?
you can’t just say, “well if you didn’t have X player, we’d win” because THEY DO HAVE HIM.
I was coming back to reply, but you hit the nail on the head.
Who in the Cubs lineup compares to Holliday?
It is probably the most injury prone starting rotation in baseball.
Examples? Carpenter is an injury risk, no doubt. Lohse had never been hurt before twice being hit by batted balls in both arms last year. Freak accidents make him injury prone? Wainwright missed time with an injury common to rock climbers in his middle finger two years ago, and was healthy last year and every year before, so how is he injury prone? Penny is Penny, but I wouldn’t call him injury prone. Nobody knows who the fifth starter will be yet, so with one injury prone starter out of four known starters, you have decided their rotation is not only injury prone as a whole, but the most injury prone in the entirety of Major League Baseball. Got anymore pearls of wisdom for me to not put any stock in?
Kevin got scared.
The Cardinals averaged 91.3 wins from 2000-09, third only to the Yankees (96.5) and Boston (92). I see nothing about the offseason that suggests a 90-93 win season is out of order, which should be enough to win the NL Central.
We won 205 games in ’04-05 with #2 pitcher Jason Marquis and #4 Jeff Suppan. In 2000 we won 95 games with #2 Garrett Stephenson, who this Cardinals fan barely remembers. And in 2002 won 97 games with #2 Jason Simontacchi (11 wins) and 5 other starters (RIP Darryl Kile) combining for 54 victories. 5th-winningest pitcher that year — Gene Stechschulte.
What am I saying? The Cardinals are a team that loves good pitching, but can survive without it.
I will contend that the central is a better division than what it was 4-5-6 years ago with the emegence of cincy and a still solid houston and chi team
i dont think so. houston actually isnt that solid, and appeared in the world series 5 years ago…certainly not an improvement since then. emergence of cincy? what emergence?
This is why predictions are useless. It’s too subjective.. It’s why you play the game!! A lot of things have to go right for any team to make it to the playoffs. Tons can go wrong and tons can go right. That said, the Cardinals certainly didn’t get any worse than they were last year, and if things go as planned they’ll be about as good. They did lose Piniero, but now having a full year of Matt Holliday and any improvement at 3rd will off set that- along with whatever Penny brings. It’s not that they’re absolutely dominant, it’s just that all the other teams in the central are mediocre.
LOL, love the handle partner. also like the fact that you can make a level arguement without calling people retarded. Thats always a good thing 😀
Just for the record, I call your statement retarded.
man, love when cub fans use the “well pujols is your entire offense” thing.
sigh…
SkipDLee
Holliday>Ramirez. this one is subjectable. but with health issues involved, il take holliday
ludwick=Soriano. this is strictly on offensive. seems pretty even to me. both .260ish hitters with 20ish home runs.
freesesoto. maybe soto wins, but i doubt its by much if at all.
ryan???fontenot/baker. seems pretty close.
the offense id give the credit to the cardinals. whoever said the cardinals have the most injury risked rotation in baseball needs to take a checkup on his own rotation. didn’t every starter spend time on the DL last season? zambrano..yeah..lilly..yeah..dempster..yeah…wells..not sure.
Don’t forget the weight of the defense which easily puts Rasmus>Fukudome, Ludwick>Soriano, & puts Molina>>>>>>>>>>>>Soto.
I’m not saying the Holliday contract is a good one, but I do know that as the years have gone by the more rival GM’s that say a contract is bad, the more likely jealousy has crept into their front office.
Right. All things with Holliday being equal, some of those same GMs may be trying to trade for him in 4-5 years when $17MM seems like a steal.
There’s always the injury risk, which sucks, but when Carpenter gets injured batting, what the hell are you going to do?
Otherwise, the team is solid. The bullpen is a bit shaky, and we don’t know what we are getting from Frankilin, but I expect improvement from Rasmus (4 walks in a game, thank god for a good hitting coach?), Ludwick (Looking hot in ST), Skip/Lopez platoon or Freese/Lopez platoon (Depends which one needs more help, most likely skip.
The lineup is solid all around, with a coach like Duncan, you never have to worry about the staff, and hell, we have a bunch of youngsters that can spot start if we need to. Looking forward to the season!
My only guess with the Holliday contract is that they dont feel as though they can resign Pujols either that or they are going to raise their payroll. There is no reason they should have gone THAT above and beyond the market for Holliday. They would essentially need to raise their payroll by whatever Pujol’s Salary is in his next contract.
take the latter. it would make no sense to bring in holliday if your gonna let pujols walk.
I agree. Pujols is not just an all star first baseman. He’s the face of the franchise. I can’t believe that the Cardinals would do anything they thought would hamper their ability to resign him, including signing Holliday.
lohse and penny had high eras last year but both are capable of pitching with ERA’s in the mid 3s. Lohse was hurt last year, and Duncan has long coveted the idea of working with Penny. While I wouldn’t say their rotation is as good as the Braves, I can’t think of any other team in the NL who has a better one. Can you think of one?
seems pretty close to the phillies with the edge to cards just because i have no idea what to expect from hamels or happ.
Philly’s have a better lineup, but I think cards rotation is better.
Carp and Doc is a push
Waino is significantly better than hamels
Happ is probably a little better than penny
Blanton is a little more consistent than Lohse
but overall I’d rather have the cards lineup when it comes to pitching. Offensively Phils edge the cards out though.
One can say that the Cardinals overpaid for Holliday if the deal is only looked at on the surface. With the deferred money it becomes about 2mil less each year than it shows on paper. Furthermore, they got their guy and that can’t be undersold. Could they have jerked him around, played games & gotten him at a lower contract? Perhaps. Then again perhaps he says screw you, skips town & takes a one year deal. He hits the market the following year & is again the top free agent available. Sometimes prudence is not the order of the day.
Penny was the signing off the offseason. It has Dave Duncan Special written all over it. A guy who has had #2-#3 starter stuff his entire career but various struggles w/ location & pitch variety. If Duncan can straighten him out, get him pitching like a 2 or 3 then the Cardinals have the best rotation in the National League, hands down.
If the Cards are not hit with injuries they should win the NL Central. But, if Lohse, Penny and Holliday had their great years due to their respective contract drives and we are back to mediocrity with those three the Cards are in trouble. Penny has been uncoachable his entire career, but maybe Dunc can get through. Cards are definately top heavy with stars and then a big dropoff, but they should still have enough to get it done…