Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings, and he's providing his work exclusively here at MLB Trade Rumors. The player stats used start with the beginning of the 2009 season and run through May 15th, 2010. We still have 4.5 months for these to change.
A few thoughts:
- Javier Vazquez is still a Type A at the moment, but his 75.000 score isn't far from Type B. Carl Pavano and Jon Garland have a chance at climbing up to A status. Jorge de la Rosa, Ted Lilly, Bronson Arroyo, Hiroki Kuroda, Kevin Correia, Cliff Lee, and Andy Pettitte are currently Type As.
- Relievers such as Rafael Soriano, Matt Guerrier, Darren Oliver, Dan Wheeler, Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, Pedro Feliciano, Trever Miller, Billy Wagner, Arthur Rhodes, and Trevor Hoffman are currently As. Not all would get arbitration offers, of course.
- At 65.555, Carlos Pena is a B and isn't far from falling out of that group. Adam Dunn could join the Type As soon, which might compel the Nationals to offer arbitration after the season. Derrek Lee could slip to B status, while Jorge Cantu, Lance Berkman, and Aramis Ramirez are already there. Adam LaRoche isn't even a B.
So, dumb question. Where’s the list?
Should be embedded within the post with tabs for each position group…is it missing for you?
I had to refresh my browser then it showed up, it didn’t show up automattically the first time.
I’m not seeing them at all.. checked in firefox and IE. Mind you there are parts of the site blocked by the corporate firewall I’m behind.
You can also try this:
spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AoSOMyrC9cB7dDIyQ…
Yeah, looks like that’s what’s blocked by the firewall. I guess I have to wait to look at that from home.
How the heck is Morneau possibly a Type B?
He’s a first baseman and he wasn’t spectacular last year or the year before. Missing a bunch of games last year can’t have helped.
2009 – 30 HR, 100 RBI, .878 OPS.
2008 – 23 HR, 129 RBI, .873 OPS.
Seems amazing that a guy who does that is a Type B. I’d love to get my hands on the formula Elias uses.
OK, but RBI aren’t a good measure of performance and he only played 135 games last year. Also, that 873 OPS is nifty, but Albert Pujols, Kevin Youkilis, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Howard and Adrian Gonzalez all outdid that while playing more games. Not every good hitter at an offense-heavy position can be a Type A. Carlos Pena put up very comparable performances in a couple dozen fewer games and might not even be Type B (although his current trainwreck season doesn’t help).
135 games isn’t a small number of games… and he’s absolutely destroying it this year.
Granted, 1B is a deep position, but in the AL you really only have better numbers over the past 3 years in Tex and Miggy – Youk appears pretty close.
There’s alot of oddities on this list – he’s just the one that jumped out at me based on obviously looking at Twins names first.
25 games is a lot of difference if two guys are producing similarly when they do play. And while Morneau is killing it this year, Youk isn’t far behind him and seriously outhit him the last two years. Again, this goes by three year performance, right? If Morneau is only the fourth best player at his position just in his league, maybe it’s hard to make him Type A. Frankly, I’m a little surprised Morneau wouldn’t be A, but it makes sense to me. But in a world where every relief pitcher and his mother are Type As, I would think Morneau would be too.
Agreed. Seeing Span, Kubel, and Cuddyer as Type-A, and Morneau down there alongside Matsui just seems awkward. The idea that the Twins would receive less compensation for losing a former-MVP, GG candidate in Morneau than they would in a part-time OF / part-time DH Kubel (1 solid season, 2009) seems backwards.
Pavano is in a interesting spot, I think it would be bad for him to be a type A since I am not sure a team would give up a pick for him, and he is probably looking for more than one year.
Just taking into account 2 of these players and the flaws of this system shows its gaping holes.. Kevin Youkillis and JD Drew. Youkillis is rated at an even “80” and Drew, call it an 79.25. Last 2 years, You has had much higher power,, RBI, XBH, OPS+, Slugging, AVG and both are slick with the glove. Got someone in scoring position, the intangibles thing, something for sure this does not take into factor and u sure want Youk up as well.
How Drew can be rated, just 3/4 of a point behind, is just…
Drew has a career .891 OPS in high leverage situations. Youkilis has a career .792 OPS in high leverage situations.
fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1935&p…
fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1152&p…
Of all the points you could have used to support your argument, intangibles isn’t really the best one to choose.
Intangibles was just thrown out there, like right now the last couple years as a point, not over the course of their careers. drew has not exactly ‘lit it up” since coming to boston and i am not one of the Drew rippers either, but glad he has at least given them a solid glove and average bat to play RF the last 3 seasons, including this one.
Drew at this point of his career, is a pitch taking OB machine, who works the count and just tries to get on base as much as he can, no longer is he really feared like he may have been 4-5 years ago to drive in runs and not knocking on him at all, just that the stats seem swayed in Elias with him being anywhere near what Youk is value wise.
To be fair, there are really more star first basemen than star rightfielders these days. Youkilis is a much better hitter, but between positional value and positional scarcity, it’s not completely bonkers market-wise.
Okay, I lost any sliver of respect I may have had for these rankings when I saw Lowell ranked higher than Beltre.
Beltre missed half the season last year, whereas Lowell has been pretty healthy.
Yay, another Type A the Dodgers can avoid offering arbitration to for fear of a huge payday.
There’s something wrong with Stephen Drew and being ahead of Panda, and Theriot ahead of Special K.
question: with billy wagner set to retire at the end of the season, could the braves offer him arbitration, he obviously turn it down and they still get a draft pick? are draft picks only transferred after a player signs elsewhere or could they get a sandwich pick for the loss?
Right. Draft picks are only offered (from the other team) when the player signs elsewhere.
Amazing that the entire Phillies batting order is Type A
carpenter and wainwright rank higher than lincecum? but they don’t win the cy young! damn you keith law.
Any way this list could be sorted by team, so you could see how many type A’s and B’s your team has and who is ranked highest, who’s on the verge of changing status etc?
when are they going to update this??
when are they going to update this??