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Discussion: Jeff Suppan

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Jeff Suppan is a free agent now, after being released by the Brewers with over $10MM remaining on his contract.  Suppan's new team would be on the hook for only the pro-rated league minimum.  The righty is projected by ZiPS to post a 5.40 ERA from here on out.  That's not appealing, but maybe a 4.75 ERA can be coaxed out of Suppan over a half-season.

A Cardinals reunion has been bandied about by some analysts, as the team could use a rotation arm given the injuries to Kyle Lohse and Brad Penny.  However, Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch would be stunned if the Cardinals show interest.

How about another former team of Suppan's, the Pirates?  Back at the '03 trade deadline, the Bucs sent Suppan, Brandon Lyon, and Anastacio Martinez to the Red Sox for Mike Gonzalez, Freddy Sanchez, and cash.  The Pirates currently have Jeff Karstens and Dana Eveland at the back end of their rotation, though Brad Lincoln is on the way and Charlie Morton is on the DL.  What's the point in a rebuilding team letting Suppan soak up innings at an ERA over 5.00?

The Brewers would not commit a rotation spot to Suppan, and their starters have a collective 4.82 ERA.  The reality is that he is not going to jump into anyone's starting five.  Suppan could instead sign a minor league deal with a club like the Astros, and hope to get the call if Brett Myers and/or Roy Oswalt are traded a month from now.

Which Teams Will Add Draft Picks For 2011?

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24 extra picks were granted for the 2010 draft due to free agent compensation, ranging from #18 to #80.  Using Eddie Bajek's projected Elias rankings from May 23rd, let's try to guess which Type A and B free agents are likely to get arbitration offers.

All the projected Type As:

Expect something like 30 Type As, with 10-15 getting arbitration offers.  Crawford, Werth, and Lee are locks.  The Rays and Phillies should add picks if their outfielders leave, while we're not sure which team Lee will be departing.  The Rays may also offer arbitration to Soriano.  Other possibilities to get arbitration offers include De La Rosa, Dunn, Guerrero, Lilly, and Martinez.  I don't see the Yankees getting draft picks out of their Type As.

Type Bs will result in plenty of draft picks too, in the supplemental round.  John Buck (Blue Jays), Adrian Beltre (Red Sox), Carl Pavano (Twins), Adam LaRoche (Diamondbacks for now), David Eckstein (Padres), Juan Uribe (Giants), Jon Garland (Padres) might be offered arbitration.  The Rays face some interesting choices with relievers Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit, and also have a $4MM club option on Type A reliever Dan Wheeler.  The Rays could be next year's Angels, losing multiple big leaguers but adding a slew of draft picks.

Follow The MLB Draft’s Second Day

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Day 2 of the MLB draft is underway, with the Nationals taking college lefty Sammy Solis.  The Pirates followed their #2 overall Jameson Taillon pick with a second big hig school arm, Stetson Allie.  Allie dropped to #52 due to a rumored $3MM price tag, tweets Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus.  The Red Sox took college righty Brandon Workman with another notable pick, while James Paxton fell all the way to the Mariners at #132.  Conor Glassey of Baseball America offers commentary on the second round here.

MLB.com's Draft Tracker is the place to be to follow along.

Christian Colon Could Help Royals Soon

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College shortstop Christian Colon was always the Royals' top choice at #4, writes Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.  The Royals told Dutton that links to Yasmani Grandal and Chris Sale were a smokescreen.

The Royals' assistant GM of scouting and player development, J.J. Picollo, told Dutton the team feels Colon's price is within reason.  Colon is a Scott Boras client, but he may sign quickly and head to A ball.  ESPN's Keith Law says, "I believe the Royals' selection of Colon at #4 indicates that they've already worked out the parameters of an agreement."  Rival executives tell Law's colleague Buster Olney Colon could be in the Majors as early as next year.

Baseball America writes that Colon profiles as a "future big league regular, best suited as an offensive second baseman."  Picollo, however, explained that reports of Colon having limited range and speed stemmed from a broken leg last year.

Picollo will be on the clock again shortly, as the Royals pick fourth in the second round today.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Adrian Beltre

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Adrian Beltre signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Red Sox in January, turning down three-year, $24MM offers from the Phillies and Athletics.  The Scott Boras client gambled that he'd bounce back in 2010 and exceed a two-year, $14MM deal after the season.  So far, it appears that Beltre was smart to bet on his own talent.

Beltre was expected to provide strong defense and a useful bat, perhaps a .330 OBP with 25 home runs.  Instead he's got a .330/.362/.509 line in 232 plate appearances.  He's tied for ninth in the AL with 40 RBIs; reaching 100 for the second time in his career won't hurt his earning potential.

Beltre's contract includes a 2011 player option worth $5MM, which will increase to $10MM with 640 plate appearances this year.  He's currently on pace for 637, so it'll be tight.  The $10MM option was never terribly relevant, though – if Beltre played enough to reach 640 PAs, he'd probably have a season worthy of more than a one-year, $10MM commitment.  Beltre is highly likely to decline his player option whether it's $5MM or $10MM.

I would not be surprised to see Beltre seek a four-year deal in the $50MM range at the outset of the offseason.  He'll be competing mainly with Jorge Cantu, if Aramis Ramirez's rough start compels him to exercise a $14.6MM player option.  Back in March, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein noted the possibility of signing Beltre long-term if he proves a good fit.  At the least we'll see an arbitration offer, as the third baseman currently profiles as a Type B free agent.

Keith Law’s First-Day Draft Reactions

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ESPN's Keith Law found yesterday's first round insane.  To fully understand why you should join ESPN Insider and read his piece, which I heartily recommend.  A few highlights:

  • Law found it interesting that the Brewers snagged high school righty Dylan Covey at #14, because they are a team in need of more immediate rotation help.  GM Doug Melvin explained to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that scouting director Bruce Seid deserves credit for not taking the easy path in the form of a college hurler.  On yesterday's conference call, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith learned that Covey feels there's a "really good chance" he'll sign rather than attend the University of San Diego.
  • Law felt that the Reds took the best player available at #12 in college catcher Yasmani Grandal, and having strong catching depth in the system will not be a bad thing.
  • The Cardinals drew praise for landing college third baseman Zack Cox, who surprisingly fell to #25.
  • The Red Sox and Angels' many first-round picks were lauded by Law.  College righty Anthony Ranaudo was an intriguing choice by the Red Sox.  The Boras client was considered one of the draft's top talents before suffering a stress reaction in his forearm.  WEEI's Alex Speier has more on Boston's three picks.
  • The biggest surprise of the draft had to be the Cubs taking college righty Hayden Simpson at #16, who was not considered a first rounder by most draft gurus.  Cubs scouting director Tim Wilken told Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune he had it confirmed that other clubs would've taken Simpson before the Cubs picked again at #65.  The Yankees' selection of high school shortstop Cito Culver at #32 was another surprise.
  • The Dodgers took a very tough sign in high school pitcher Zach Lee, who has a commitment to play football at LSU.  Dodgers assistant GM Logan White insisted to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times that the team did not purposely take an unsignable player to save money.

O’s Optimistic About Signing Machado

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Manny Machado has heard the Alex Rodriguez comparisons, like everyone else. The Orioles’ first round selection is a big high school shortstop from the Miami area, so A-Rod was an unavoidable point of reference. Machado finds the comparisons flattering – to a point.

“I’m Manny Machado,” he said after celebrating the draft with about 25 family members. “I can’t be like anybody else. You’ve got to be yourself.”

Before long, Machado could be making a name for himself in the same organization as recent first rounders Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz. Orioles scouting director Joe Jordan says he was drawn to Machado’s enthusiasm for the game and, most of all, his talent.

“He’s going to automatically be one of the premier prospects in the organization,” Jordan said.

Technically, the Orioles have to sign Machado before that happens. Whether the shortstop likes the A-Rod comparisons or not, Machado definitely has something in common with Rodriguez: Scott Boras. That connection has intimidated teams before, but Jordan expressed confidence that the Orioles will sign Machado.

“He’s going to be a Baltimore Oriole,” Jordan said. “I have no doubt about that.”

Wieters, another Boras client, obtained the highest bonus in Orioles history when he signed for $6MM in 2007.

Brewers’ First Rounder Covey Hopes To Sign

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Dylan Covey says his friends and family celebrated so much that the house started shaking when the Brewers drafted him tonight. Covey was excited to be chosen in the first round, but the 18-year-old right-hander admits he has a lot to learn about the team that selected him.


“I know they have a slide in the outfield and that’s about it,” he said. “I don’t even think I know how to spell Milwaukee.”

He does know that he wants to start his pro career soon. Covey sounds willing to sign, though he has a college scholarship offer.

“I’m not completely writing college off,” he said. “But there’s a pretty good chance – I would say a really good chance – that I’ll sign.”

Covey and Brewers GM Doug Melvin have until August 16th to work out a deal.

Red Sox Near Agreements With Vitek, Brentz

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Red Sox first rounder Kolbrin Vitek said tonight that he has a "verbal agreement" in place with the Red Sox. Vitek, a 21-year-old college infielder, said on a conference call that he expects to start his pro career soon, since he and the Red Sox have exchanged figures and come to an informal agreement. Alex Speier of WEEI.com hears that Vitek will sign for slot money ($1.36MM in 2009).

GM Theo Epstein said the club is also close to an agreement with supplemental round pick Bryce Brentz. Nothing is official yet, but Epstein says the club could make an announcement or two soon.

"We might have something to announce in the next couple days, pending physicals," Epstein said.

The Red Sox spoke to Vitek, a two-way player in college, about playing third base and that's where he expects to play. Vitek says third base is a  "pretty comfortable" position for him, since he played there his sophomore year.

The Red Sox expect to spend considerably more time negotiating a deal with supplemental rounder Anthony Ranaudo, a Scott Boras client.

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