Baseball America represents the industry consensus, and given the players' respective rankings it follows that most teams value Brett Wallace more than Anthony Gose. That Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos made the swap with the Astros yesterday anyway shows that he values his army of scouts over the industry consensus, as he should. When Anthopoulos came on board he built the largest scouting staff in the Majors and Wallace for Gose represents an interesting test case. More thoughts on the deal…
- Anthopoulos explained the trade to MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. He's attempted to acquire Gose from the Phillies multiple times before, and sees him as a potential impact center fielder. Upside over certainty.
- ESPN's Keith Law says this trade "could not possibly make less sense to me," and views Wallace as "twice as valuable a prospect as Gose."
- Dustin Parkes of Drunk Jays Fans points out that value has been lost by the Jays at some point. His colleague Andrew Stoeten isn't concerned about that, but wonders if the deal is "indicative of an organizational shift regarding the timeline for contention." He also wonders if the Blue Jays feel they are "jumping off on [Wallace] before his value drops."
Fangraphs had an interesting write-up on Wallace yesterday, pointing out how nearly impossible it seems that he’ll ever reach 3 WAR.
Right. It seems very possible that Wallace never develops into a great player. But people in baseball still seemed to value him very highly, and, regardless of how Gose turns out, it seems that the Jays could have acquired him for a less valuable asset than Wallace.
If they could have don’t you think they would have? If these clowns like Keith Law and Jim Callis really knew anything about scouting they’d be working for a major league baseball team as a scouting director. Instead they spew semi informed hearsay around the internet and everyone thinks they know what they are talking about.
Personally I have more faith in Tony Lacava and the largest team of scouts in major league baseball than I do in an espn writer.
I agree- I don’t think it was a bad deal if AA trusts his scouts and likes Gose.
But that is the perception- that Wallace was more valuable. And we have no way of knowing whether or not that is true. The baseball writers are not omniscient, but they are fairly well informed; if they hear from teams that Wallace was considered more valuable than Gose, than he very likely was by at least some teams.
I agree- I don’t think it was a bad deal if AA trusts his scouts and likes Gose.
But that is the perception- that Wallace was more valuable. And we have no way of knowing whether or not that is true. The baseball writers are not omniscient, but they are fairly well informed; if they hear from teams that Wallace was considered more valuable than Gose, than he very likely was by at least some teams.
Law was a scout for many years.
Yup… and he was fired by J.P. I love reading his opinion… but I don’t value them. As a fan, it’s hard to swallow that pill. With what the Jays were saying about contending now and getting MLB ready kids. As much as this trade stunned me, a friend of mind re-confort me!!! Remember all those rumors about trading Rios to SF for Cain or Lincecum. Trade never went down because ownership was afraid that the fan base would be angry… and at the time everyone was saying to keep Rios… Well we should of trust J.P… only that time !!!
the Jays were NEVER going to get Lincecum for Rios. the Jays asked for Lincecum and the Giants said no. the Giants were offering Cain instead. the potential Rios had was more than what Cain had. if Rios had produced with the Jays the way he is with the White Sox then he would still be here. he didn’t all of a sudden become good once he went to Chicago.
no, jays wanted cain and the giants suggested lincecum. everybody loved cain’s body and were terrified of lincecum’s. naturally, this was before lincecum blew up, but even now his velocity is decreasing yearly.
the Jays were NEVER going to get Lincecum for Rios. the Jays asked for Lincecum and the Giants said no. the Giants were offering Cain instead. the potential Rios had was more than what Cain had. if Rios had produced with the Jays the way he is with the White Sox then he would still be here. he didn’t all of a sudden become good once he went to Chicago.
Yup… and he was fired by J.P. I love reading his opinion… but I don’t value them. As a fan, it’s hard to swallow that pill. With what the Jays were saying about contending now and getting MLB ready kids. As much as this trade stunned me, a friend of mind re-confort me!!! Remember all those rumors about trading Rios to SF for Cain or Lincecum. Trade never went down because ownership was afraid that the fan base would be angry… and at the time everyone was saying to keep Rios… Well we should of trust J.P… only that time !!!
Key term here is “was”. Do you think Law has ever seen Gose play? Considering he’s 19 and an A ball player I’m gonna go with a no.
Key term here is “was”. Do you think Law has ever seen Gose play? Considering he’s 19 and an A ball player I’m gonna go with a no.
Law was NOT a scout. He was hired as a number-cruncher during JP Ricciardi’s “Moneyball” ERA. Along the way he has picked up some scouting jargon, but he was never a scout.
That’s stupid. You obviously have no clue what Moneball actually is.
Law was a scout for many years.
If they could have don’t you think they would have? If these clowns like Keith Law and Jim Callis really knew anything about scouting they’d be working for a major league baseball team as a scouting director. Instead they spew semi informed hearsay around the internet and everyone thinks they know what they are talking about.
Personally I have more faith in Tony Lacava and the largest team of scouts in major league baseball than I do in an espn writer.
I understand the basis for your opinion…However, when it came to working out a deal for Gose, it was not possible to get him in the Halladay trade last year…and again…a few days ago the Phillies were not interested in what Toronto had….it came down to Houston naming their price (Wallace) and AA meeting it
This was not a matter of AA shopping Wallace around the league….it was a matter of him identifying Gose as his target.
Gose probably became available in the Oswalt trade because he most likely performed below expectations this year….so…like the Gonzalez trade…AA did the sell high and buy low….typically…to get the “untouchables”…you have to wait for an off year and gamble on them
I was surprised with the deal, but if 5-years from now Gose is a Torii Hunter/Carl Crawford type, while Wallace is a Lance Berkman type – the Jays win, right?
sure, but since wallace has more value as a prospect right now, shouldnt the jays have gotten another player with gose, i dont have a problem with the jays trading wallace, or trading for gose but interms of value AA messed up.
I posted this in the wrong place.
You can’t always take the safe play. Most great GM’s will take the guy with the highest upside everytime. It is risky, but it could pay off big time.
Maybe the Astros valued Gose almost as high as Wallace, and weren’t willing to part with another prospect. If it was a take it or leave it deal for AA, and he really wanted Gose, you can’t blame him. Seems like he went with his gut and scouts
I also think the Astros are playing this extremely safe.
They traded one of their two franchise players. Getting Happ and Wallace almost assures them of getting two MLB players in the deal.
They couldn’t have gotten two MLB ready players from the Phillies so they improvised a bit.
I also think the Astros are playing this extremely safe.
They traded one of their two franchise players. Getting Happ and Wallace almost assures them of getting two MLB players in the deal.
They couldn’t have gotten two MLB ready players from the Phillies so they improvised a bit.
I posted this in the wrong place.
You can’t always take the safe play. Most great GM’s will take the guy with the highest upside everytime. It is risky, but it could pay off big time.
Maybe the Astros valued Gose almost as high as Wallace, and weren’t willing to part with another prospect. If it was a take it or leave it deal for AA, and he really wanted Gose, you can’t blame him. Seems like he went with his gut and scouts
If in 5 years, Wallace is a Berkman type and Gose is a Tori Hunter type, then its a win win deal.
Gose is nothing like Torii Hunter. If anything he’s more of a White Juan Pierre.
A white Juan Pierre? That’s interesting, considering Anthony Gose is black…
Hahaha^^^ Seems like some people just make stuff up (referring to shockey of course)
If in 5 years, Wallace is a Berkman type and Gose is a Tori Hunter type, then its a win win deal.
This is the first trade where Anthopoulos never hit it out of the ballpark. I mean the Halladay, Escobar and Morrow trades looked great at the time and still do, but this one is questionable at best. While he may covet Gose the price he paid for him was too high. While Wallace is a lock to at least play in the majors, Gose migth never make it out of AA. Our system as is many others are littered with ghosts of athletes past.
Agreed. I’m not sure how much a stud hitter Wallace would have been, but the reality is that his value was very high and they could have gotten more for him.
Why do people assume that the Jays could have gotten more for Wallace? How do we know that Wallace’s value hadn’t dropped across the board, and pro scouts and GMs no longer value him as much as they did at even the start of the year?
Because that is what the experts seem to think based on the fact that Wallace is much more of a sure thing, and is much more projectable. We know that his value hasn’t dropped that much because he is still ranked in the top 50 of BA’s midseason prospects rankings
Experts?!?!? The only experts to me are the poeple working for teams. Otherwise, your a self-proclaim expert. If they were that good, some teams would hire them.
Are you saying guys like Rosenthal and Law (though I don’t like him) have ZERO credibility? I think rival execs would agree that Wallace is more valuable. BA, based on their prospects rankings would also agree with me.
I don’t say they have zero credibility. I just don’t value their opinion as much as AA and Jays scouting staff. I still don’t like the trade. I’m a passionate Jays fan and i was stunned when I saw it. But to AA’s credit, all he made so far are good move. So to hang AA on this or to say he should get can is ridiculous (I know you didn’t say that but some are). Rosenthal and Law and baseball insiders, they have sources. What if his sources, from one team, were really high on Wallace and really low on Gose. Now his analysis will be reflecting his sources. On the other hand, if his sources was the complete opposite, he might take Toronto’s side (which I doubt since he still have a personal agenda against the Jays!). And BA’s rankings are based on BA opinions, not organizational throughout MLB.
Are you saying guys like Rosenthal and Law (though I don’t like him) have ZERO credibility? I think rival execs would agree that Wallace is more valuable. BA, based on their prospects rankings would also agree with me.
Experts?!?!? The only experts to me are the poeple working for teams. Otherwise, your a self-proclaim expert. If they were that good, some teams would hire them.
You’re assuming that ‘expert’ opinion or BA’s ranking is directly related to actual value. It may be from a fans perspective, and maybe an agents’…but pro scouts sure aren’t looking to writers or trade publications for judging value of a player.
So again, we as laymen have no idea what the actual value of Wallace currently is, nor Gose. So it’s really hard to say this trade was a success or failure on either front in terms of value.
It’s simply a ‘wait and see’ situation. Personally, I hope both players end up great, and both HOU and TOR come out as winners.
Agreed it’s a wait and see BUT as fans all we have to go by is stats and opinions or so the so called “experts”. We have NO idea how much the Jays scouting staff likes certain players and evidently they really like Gose.
What I’m trying to say though is that we have to go by resources such as BA and insiders to project and evaluate talent and value. What else are we supposed to do?
“How do we know that Wallace’s value hadn’t dropped across the board”
I don’t know, maybe because he’s not hitting .200 with 2HR. His numbers aren’t amazing, but he was rated a top prospect and didn’t bomb this year. How much can your value actually drop? Getting tired of the AA cult fans that are trying to justify the trade, it’s comical. AA REALLY REALLY wanted Gose, Wade asked for a ridiculous amount, and AA caved.
Yes, because asking questions and trying to understand a trade equates to being an AA fan boy. Settle down.
Yes, because asking questions and trying to understand a trade equates to being an AA fan boy. Settle down.
Actually his value could and probably has dropped a lot. Heading into this year he was considered an elite hitting third basemen. He’s since become a good hitting first basemen. Unfortunately, good hitting first basemen are a dime a dozen. If it no longer looks like he’s going to be the elite hitter he was projected to be out of college, and with his move to a less valuable position, his value is considerably less.
*Hoped* he would be a 3rd basemen. It was a project. His value wasn’t all the sudden high because they labelled him a 3rd basemen. If they would have labelled him an elite hitting 2nd basemen, would his value have been even higher?
“How do we know that Wallace’s value hadn’t dropped across the board”
I don’t know, maybe because he’s not hitting .200 with 2HR. His numbers aren’t amazing, but he was rated a top prospect and didn’t bomb this year. How much can your value actually drop? Getting tired of the AA cult fans that are trying to justify the trade, it’s comical. AA REALLY REALLY wanted Gose, Wade asked for a ridiculous amount, and AA caved.
Why do people assume that the Jays could have gotten more for Wallace? How do we know that Wallace’s value hadn’t dropped across the board, and pro scouts and GMs no longer value him as much as they did at even the start of the year?
the only thing that surprises me about this deal is that AA didn’t swindle the astros for another A-ball prospect or something, leveraging the baseball america rankings his way.
I like the trade for the Jays. He is telling his scouts that their hard work is not done in vein. It sends them the right message, and can only help his relationship with the most important members of the orgainization.
Without great scouting you become, well, the Astros.
I deleted this because I replied to the wrong post.
I deleted this because I replied to the wrong post.
IF Gose can turn into a CF with a lot of SB AND some power in the future then at that time I will like the trade, but right now I’m scratching my head and wondering why the Jays did this.
I have read that Gose potential once he improves could be someone like Carl Crawford, which would be great. but he could also end up being Michael Bourn/Juan Pierre or even Joey Gathright.
not just what player Gose could be in 3-4+ years down the road, but why did they give up on Wallace who is ready now to contribute. Wallace could have been the Jays starting 1B starting next season. now maybe Anthopoulos really doesn’t like Wallace defense at 1B and figures he can move Lind to 1B and bring in a bat that would be better than Wallace for DH.
even if Anthopoulos is lowering on Wallace, the Jays still could have gotten more for Wallace than just Gose. it could ahve been Gose PLUS for Wallace. it seems Anthopoulos had such a thing for Gose that he didn’t take a step back and think about what else he could have gotten WITH Gose.
the Jays did do plenty of scouting on Gose as he was the player the Jays wanted from the Phillies instead of Taylor, who was sent to Oakland for Wallace. so I guess you could say if the Jays had gotten what they wanted from the Phillies in Gose then Wallace would have never even been involved.
If your name is made to mock Ed Wade, than I really like it…
If your name is made to mock Ed Wade, than I really like it…
IF Gose can turn into a CF with a lot of SB AND some power in the future then at that time I will like the trade, but right now I’m scratching my head and wondering why the Jays did this.
I have read that Gose potential once he improves could be someone like Carl Crawford, which would be great. but he could also end up being Michael Bourn/Juan Pierre or even Joey Gathright.
not just what player Gose could be in 3-4+ years down the road, but why did they give up on Wallace who is ready now to contribute. Wallace could have been the Jays starting 1B starting next season. now maybe Anthopoulos really doesn’t like Wallace defense at 1B and figures he can move Lind to 1B and bring in a bat that would be better than Wallace for DH.
even if Anthopoulos is lowering on Wallace, the Jays still could have gotten more for Wallace than just Gose. it could ahve been Gose PLUS for Wallace. it seems Anthopoulos had such a thing for Gose that he didn’t take a step back and think about what else he could have gotten WITH Gose.
the Jays did do plenty of scouting on Gose as he was the player the Jays wanted from the Phillies instead of Taylor, who was sent to Oakland for Wallace. so I guess you could say if the Jays had gotten what they wanted from the Phillies in Gose then Wallace would have never even been involved.
My guess is that when the Astro’s agreed to a Wallace/Gose swap AA probably jumped all over it.
All of his scouts love Gose and the jays have been trying to acquire him for awhile.
Though the move to me, shows more of a re-building look for the jays. Since Gose wont be on the jays until Wells contract is near completion.
And that Wells contract couldn’t end soon enough! Doesn’t that make even more sense though? Have a guy waiting in the wings once your overpaid/albatross of a contract but friendly team leader has to leave?
This move is risky but I like it for the sheer amount of guts it takes to trade a MLB ready prospect for a guy with potential. I look at it this way:
Could the Jays have gotten more for Wallace? Sure.
Would the Astros make the move right away (Gose for Wallace) if they involved one of their prospects in a rather thin system? Likely not.
Would the Jays want to part with one of other prospects within the top 5?
Stewart, Drabek, D’arnaud, JPA? At this point I feel like Wallace was more expendable. (Not like they would take Jenkins or Cooper lol)
So all in all, this move took guts and personally AA has my trust with the moves he’s made so far.
My guess is that when the Astro’s agreed to a Wallace/Gose swap AA probably jumped all over it.
All of his scouts love Gose and the jays have been trying to acquire him for awhile.
Though the move to me, shows more of a re-building look for the jays. Since Gose wont be on the jays until Wells contract is near completion.
wondering how much their ages have to do with it too. Gose is a fairly seasoned minor leaguer at age 19 (just turned 20) while Wallace is 24 now.
i am sure its a big deal, as was the potential upside.
i am sure its a big deal, as was the potential upside.
wondering how much their ages have to do with it too. Gose is a fairly seasoned minor leaguer at age 19 (just turned 20) while Wallace is 24 now.
I’m finally seeing the sense around this. Jays are taking a guess at Wallace’s value dropping potentially and taking in a speedster.
You have to wonder about a “prospect” who at age 24 has been dealt 4 times aleady.
He’s been on four teams and has been dealt three times. However, I know what you were trying to convey, and I agree.
You have to wonder about a “prospect” who at age 24 has been dealt 4 times aleady.
I’m finally seeing the sense around this. Jays are taking a guess at Wallace’s value dropping potentially and taking in a speedster.
Michael Taylor is a better prospect than both of them. Wallace value has dropped in the last year, but the initial mistake was trading Taylor to the A’s for Wallace.
Why is everyone assuming that Wallace’s value has dropped? Just because the guy was traded doesn’t mean his value has dropped. Show me one scout or baseball expert online that have written that his value has dropped. At this point, all that is, is Jay’s fans speculation that his value has dropped.
Why is everyone assuming that Wallace’s value has dropped? Just because the guy was traded doesn’t mean his value has dropped. Show me one scout or baseball expert online that have written that his value has dropped. At this point, all that is, is Jay’s fans speculation that his value has dropped.
Kevin Goldstein: Wallace is the most overrated prospect in baseball.
Brett Wallace is a 1B only with average at best power, poor walk rate — how is that a good prospect?
about 18 hours ago via TweetDeck
Brett Wallace is among the most over-rated prospects around.
http://twitter.com/kevin_goldstein
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11620
Kevin Goldstein: Wallace is the most overrated prospect in baseball.
Brett Wallace is a 1B only with average at best power, poor walk rate — how is that a good prospect?
about 18 hours ago via TweetDeck
Brett Wallace is among the most over-rated prospects around.
http://twitter.com/kevin_goldstein
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11620
I believe Wallace has maintained if not increased his value.
taylor has regressed this year in AAA, the guy is 24 and still hasent figured it out in AAA
He had a slow start with a good K/BB nonetheless. He’s batting .338/.427/.468 in July. He’s 6’6″, 260 lbs. and he stole 21 bases (in 26 attempts) last year between AA/AAA and can actually field his position well.
Didn’t say he’s the perfect prospect, but I’d rather have him than Wallace or Gose.
He had a slow start with a good K/BB nonetheless. He’s batting .338/.427/.468 in July. He’s 6’6″, 260 lbs. and he stole 21 bases (in 26 attempts) last year between AA/AAA and can actually field his position well.
Didn’t say he’s the perfect prospect, but I’d rather have him than Wallace or Gose.
agreed. The Phils definitely chose right when choosing last year between Brown and Taylor.
Wondering if they thought Jiwan James could develop into a “poor man’s Gose” as well which made Gose expendable a bit. That and the fact that prospects like Leandro Castro and Dom Santiago in lower levels had a potential higher upside than Gose. If one of those “hits” as a prospect then losing Gose will hurt much less.
agreed. The Phils definitely chose right when choosing last year between Brown and Taylor.
Wondering if they thought Jiwan James could develop into a “poor man’s Gose” as well which made Gose expendable a bit. That and the fact that prospects like Leandro Castro and Dom Santiago in lower levels had a potential higher upside than Gose. If one of those “hits” as a prospect then losing Gose will hurt much less.
taylor has regressed this year in AAA, the guy is 24 and still hasent figured it out in AAA
Michael Taylor is a better prospect than both of them. Wallace value has dropped in the last year, but the initial mistake was trading Taylor to the A’s for Wallace.
I took in the Jays’ series in Philadelphia which was attended by about a dozen scouts. After tone of the games, I asked one of them for his thoughts on Wallace. He said he could hit but he fielded “like a garbage can with feet”. My guess is that Wallace’s poor glove and lack of speed make him less of a prospect than many think. BTW, same scout loves Brandon Morrow and can’t believe that the Jays managed to get him for Brandon League.
Wasn’t this true a year ago, then, when the Jays traded Michael Taylor for him? What’s changed about Wallace’s glove in the last 12 months?
Nothing….Jays settled for Taylor because Philly wouldn’t give them Gose in the Halladay trade.
Nothing….Jays settled for Taylor because Philly wouldn’t give them Gose in the Halladay trade.
I doubt that the glove is the only issue with Wallace. AA wants to get more athletic and faster and did that by trading Wallace for Gose.
I doubt that the glove is the only issue with Wallace. AA wants to get more athletic and faster and did that by trading Wallace for Gose.
Wasn’t this true a year ago, then, when the Jays traded Michael Taylor for him? What’s changed about Wallace’s glove in the last 12 months?
Everybody knows fielding was Wallace’s greatest weakness. It’s (in my view) the entire reason that the Cardinals were willing to deal him for Matt Holliday, because if he couldn’t play 3rd (They tried him in the OF, didn’t work either), he had no room in the organization. His next 2 teams trading him lead me to believe that this is universal view in MLB, as they both see him as a 1b/DH type.
The Jays have Overbay, Lind, and several others that can play 1b and DH, whereas the Astros seem to lack depth in many positions overall. Wallace will fit well with them, but as a Cardinal fan, it feels kind of weird personally.
FINALLY….someone mentioning fielding. I’ve been reading / hearing about how Baseball is moving away from the one dimensional DH type slugger (read: Adam Dunn types) towards the more rounded and valuable athlete. Wallace is a one dimensional player who will struggle in the National League since it has no natural position to slot him into. Being a defensive liability is no different than being an offensive one.
As far as I can tell this is a simple 1:1 position play where AA saw a chance to get better at a position where the team didn’t have too much organizational depth. the Jays have at least 3 major league ready players who can / are playing 1B (lind, overbay, snider). There are also many many other 1B’s available that can actually hit and field. Wallace was basically surplus, so why not get value out of him while you can.
“FINALLY….someone mentioning fielding. I’ve been reading / hearing about how Baseball is moving away from the one dimensional DH type slugger (read: Adam Dunn types) towards the more rounded and valuable athlete.”
I believe your post should’ve said (read: David Ortiz types)
I can care less for Dunn but if there is a player that epitomizes a “one dimensional DH type slugger”, then that my friend would be David Ortiz.
I wonder if Ortiz even remembers how to put on a fielders glove.
“FINALLY….someone mentioning fielding. I’ve been reading / hearing about how Baseball is moving away from the one dimensional DH type slugger (read: Adam Dunn types) towards the more rounded and valuable athlete.”
I believe your post should’ve said (read: David Ortiz types)
I can care less for Dunn but if there is a player that epitomizes a “one dimensional DH type slugger”, then that my friend would be David Ortiz.
I wonder if Ortiz even remembers how to put on a fielders glove.
FINALLY….someone mentioning fielding. I’ve been reading / hearing about how Baseball is moving away from the one dimensional DH type slugger (read: Adam Dunn types) towards the more rounded and valuable athlete. Wallace is a one dimensional player who will struggle in the National League since it has no natural position to slot him into. Being a defensive liability is no different than being an offensive one.
As far as I can tell this is a simple 1:1 position play where AA saw a chance to get better at a position where the team didn’t have too much organizational depth. the Jays have at least 3 major league ready players who can / are playing 1B (lind, overbay, snider). There are also many many other 1B’s available that can actually hit and field. Wallace was basically surplus, so why not get value out of him while you can.
I said this yesterday on a different board — the more times Wallace is moved (three trades in 12 months) the deal to send him (and others) for Holliday looks better and better. Granted, he’s offered a better shot at success in Houston over Toronto, but my confidence that this kid is for real is dwindling. Hopefully I’m right, at least when I see him at Busch.
Originally, I liked the deal when he was finally traded, since from what I saw, he was never 3B or OF material anyway. All he had to be was below average, and I thought that his bat would make up for the lost value on defense, but if 2 other organizations with holes at 3b are trading him, then clearly 3B is no longer an option for him. Hopefully he does well at Houston (But not against the Cardinals :D) To be honest, I am more saddened that we traded Mortenson. We could really use some SP depth at the moment…
“To be honest, I am more saddened that we traded Mortenson. We could really use some SP depth at the moment…”
Then how would you describe your feelings for giving Haren away?
If we were to grab a top-o-the-line starter, Haren would have been the guy, but the Cardinals didn’t have anything tangible that they could give the Dbacks, as in they couldn’t trade the Dbacks anyone that would make people in Arizona still attend ball games, whereas they could flash Joe Saunders to the public, and they seem to be rather high on the people they acquired in prospects and the PTBNL, so we will see, but personally, the Cardinals could have matched it from a value standpoint in prospects.
But I won’t miss his salary, as Pujols is a bigger problem atm.
I think you misunderstood me, that, or I misspoke. I was just reminding you that you once had Haren and gave him away so losing Mortenson shouldn’t be that big a deal.
“To be honest, I am more saddened that we traded Mortenson. We could really use some SP depth at the moment…”
Then how would you describe your feelings for giving Haren away?
Everybody knows fielding was Wallace’s greatest weakness. It’s (in my view) the entire reason that the Cardinals were willing to deal him for Matt Holliday, because if he couldn’t play 3rd (They tried him in the OF, didn’t work either), he had no room in the organization. His next 2 teams trading him lead me to believe that this is universal view in MLB, as they both see him as a 1b/DH type.
The Jays have Overbay, Lind, and several others that can play 1b and DH, whereas the Astros seem to lack depth in many positions overall. Wallace will fit well with them, but as a Cardinal fan, it feels kind of weird personally.
I took in the Jays’ series in Philadelphia which was attended by about a dozen scouts. After tone of the games, I asked one of them for his thoughts on Wallace. He said he could hit but he fielded “like a garbage can with feet”. My guess is that Wallace’s poor glove and lack of speed make him less of a prospect than many think. BTW, same scout loves Brandon Morrow and can’t believe that the Jays managed to get him for Brandon League.
If the Jays were planning on competing in 2011-2012 and Wallace’s bat is the difference maker, then the Jays aren’t really in bad shape. Is Wallace’s bat REALLY the difference between the Jays competing in the next two years? If it is, then move Lind to 1B, Bautista to 3B, Lewis/Snider/Wells in the OF, and just sign a DH. I’m fairly confident they can sign a DH that can replace Wallace’s bat. There’s no question Lind can replace Wallace’s defensive “value” at 1B. If you think about it, why keep Wallace when you can replace him every year with a 1-year DH deal + get a very high upside CF? THat’s the best I can do, in terms of understanding this trade.
Exactly. Well put. And I would add that AA probably isn’t done yet. Maybe the bat that will replace Wallace’s (or be better than Wallace’s) will materialize in the next trade or two. Maybe there’s a blockbuster in the works for Singleton, Montero, who knows?
If the Jays were planning on competing in 2011-2012 and Wallace’s bat is the difference maker, then the Jays aren’t really in bad shape. Is Wallace’s bat REALLY the difference between the Jays competing in the next two years? If it is, then move Lind to 1B, Bautista to 3B, Lewis/Snider/Wells in the OF, and just sign a DH. I’m fairly confident they can sign a DH that can replace Wallace’s bat. There’s no question Lind can replace Wallace’s defensive “value” at 1B. If you think about it, why keep Wallace when you can replace him every year with a 1-year DH deal + get a very high upside CF? THat’s the best I can do, in terms of understanding this trade.
I think another thing worth noting is that this is still only Wallace’s first season playing first base. I would think he stands a good chance to improve as he gets more experience at the position. Granted, it’s also possible that he may never be a good fielder…but seeing how the Astros are rebuilding now, he should get plenty of time to try and figure it out. Idk if I’m totally on board w/ fangraphs article about him never being a 3.0 WAR player…everyone knows he can hit
Also, Gose sounds like he can play…he’s just a guy the Astros have a surplus of in their system. Which made the Oswalt deal appear horrible at first. I think AA should have tried to get more for Wallace, but I don’t think he got completely hosed either. Even if he is Michael Bourn 2.0…Michael Bourn isn’t a bad player
I think another thing worth noting is that this is still only Wallace’s first season playing first base. I would think he stands a good chance to improve as he gets more experience at the position. Granted, it’s also possible that he may never be a good fielder…but seeing how the Astros are rebuilding now, he should get plenty of time to try and figure it out. Idk if I’m totally on board w/ fangraphs article about him never being a 3.0 WAR player…everyone knows he can hit
Also, Gose sounds like he can play…he’s just a guy the Astros have a surplus of in their system. Which made the Oswalt deal appear horrible at first. I think AA should have tried to get more for Wallace, but I don’t think he got completely hosed either. Even if he is Michael Bourn 2.0…Michael Bourn isn’t a bad player
Wallace is or is very close to “major league ready”, but I think he’s going to turn out to be an overrated prospect. Gose may turn out to be nothing, but Wallace seems to be overvalued by some.
Wallace is or is very close to “major league ready”, but I think he’s going to turn out to be an overrated prospect. Gose may turn out to be nothing, but Wallace seems to be overvalued by some.
Bautista should not be counted on for anything and he should be traded now while his value is high. arbitration eligible he will get a big raise in the offseason. next season his numbers should come back down to his normal level and then he is going to be way overpriced and unmovable. I would rather count on Encarnacion and his iron glove at 3B than Bautista.
It would have been nice if the Jays could have gotten someone else with Gose, even a low grade prospect.
What is his normal level? When else has he had this kind of playing time?
What is his normal level? When else has he had this kind of playing time?
Bautista should not be counted on for anything and he should be traded now while his value is high. arbitration eligible he will get a big raise in the offseason. next season his numbers should come back down to his normal level and then he is going to be way overpriced and unmovable. I would rather count on Encarnacion and his iron glove at 3B than Bautista.
It would have been nice if the Jays could have gotten someone else with Gose, even a low grade prospect.
Brett Wallace started the season as the 27th ranked prospect in all of baseball and has continued to hit .300, with 20+ homers this year. This is his first year playing 1B full time so I’m sure there is a learning curve. His value has not dropped at all, he is just a player that Toronto felt they needed to trade in order to get Anthony Gose, who is a guy they have coveted for quite a while.
27th according to whom? Baseball America? Do you think teams hire Baseball America to rank prospects so that they know their value in trades? Get a clue.
It was always known that Wallace’s power would be somewhat limited but he was expected to make up for it with a high OBP. 18 HR’s and a .360 OBP with the 4th or 5th highest OPS on his team in Vegas where he was expected to dominate this year so ya I’d say his value has dropped.
I give Anthopolous credit for admitting a mistake and taking corrective action before it’s too late. If this was Ricciardi he would have hung onto him just because he couldn’t admit to being wrong about something.
You sound like a disgruntled Blue Jays fan. You have to look at this from and outside view. Yes, according to Baseball America. They wouldnt be nationally known if they were accurate most of the time. That same site has Drabek ranked in the top 15. I bet you arent gonna argue with that. And it hasnt been “always known that Wallace’s power would be limited”. He is 23 and the power still hasnt faded.
Yes I’m going to argue. Drabek should be nowhere near 15. JPA is the Jays best prospect by far at this point that is anywhere near major league ready.
I don’t think that Wallace is a bad prospect by any means, but a couple of things:
1) Wallace is 23, but he’s also going to be 24 in under a month and is repeating AAA in the greatest hitter’s park in the greatest hitter’s league in the minor leagues. It’s like playing in the Coor’s field of a league where every park is like Coor’s field to begin with. Check out some of the numbers his teammates are putting up. J.P. Arencibia (the other somewhat regarded prospect on the team) is absolutely killing it and everyone else is pretty much performing up to Wallace’s level.
2) In order to be a real difference maker at first base Wallace is going to need to (in his age 24-25 season) learn to draw more walks or hit for more power in a hitter’s league. He’s going to need to do a lot more of both if he doesn’t improve his play at first base to the point where he’s average. At this point he looks like Eric Hinske with a higher batting average. That’s not a bad player, but is it an AL East pennant winning caliber first baseman?
2) Gose is young and raw. He is a long way away from the big leagues and there is a chance he might never make it. That is the downside in this trade. You are dealing away a more known commodity that has some real value (a decent to good first baseman on the cheap is a nice thing to have for a few years) to acquire a player that you can’t be sure will ever make a contribution at the big league level.
The upside of the trade is that Gose is playing High-A ball at age nineteen when most of his peers are in Low-A or Rookie League ball. He is already flashing elite defense and his on-base percentage against right-handed pitching at an advanced level (for him) is actually higher than Wallace’s against righties in a league he is repeating that is known as a hitter’s league. That says something.
In order to be a difference maker overall (as an elite defensive centerfielder), you basically need Gose to become Fred Lewis with the bat. If he has some stolen base speed on top of that then so much the better. It is far, far too early to tell whether this is likely or not. He hasn’t hit well in High-A this year or Low-A last year, but he is playing at an advanced level for his age so his numbers may say more about how fast he has been promoted than his actual ability. Carl Crawford had worse numbers in the same league at the same age. Oh, he was caught stealing a lot too.
In order to be a difference maker overall (as a poor defensive first baseman), you basically need Wallace to become a much better hitter than he has shown he is likely to be. He needs to be a .300BA guy with real plus power (30-35 home runs and 35+ doubles annually) to go along with more walks than he’s shown that he is likely to draw. If he isn’t drawing 50 walks or hitting for that kind of power in his second go-around at the PCL (a hot end to the season may get him there I suppose) then how can we expect him to do that in the majors?
27th according to whom? Baseball America? Do you think teams hire Baseball America to rank prospects so that they know their value in trades? Get a clue.
It was always known that Wallace’s power would be somewhat limited but he was expected to make up for it with a high OBP. 18 HR’s and a .360 OBP with the 4th or 5th highest OPS on his team in Vegas where he was expected to dominate this year so ya I’d say his value has dropped.
I give Anthopolous credit for admitting a mistake and taking corrective action before it’s too late. If this was Ricciardi he would have hung onto him just because he couldn’t admit to being wrong about something.
Age, level, park factors.
He’s somewhere around 30th in the PCL in OPS. It’s a hitter’s heaven. He doesn’t walk and his power is average for his league, let alone for 1B/DH-types in the league.
Brett Wallace started the season as the 27th ranked prospect in all of baseball and has continued to hit .300, with 20+ homers this year. This is his first year playing 1B full time so I’m sure there is a learning curve. His value has not dropped at all, he is just a player that Toronto felt they needed to trade in order to get Anthony Gose, who is a guy they have coveted for quite a while.
It’s not such a bad deal (Not the greatest but not the worst). DH/1st base is much easier to acquire than a skilled outfielder. It shows how much AA is thinking ahead for Wells’ departure. We’ll see what happens. As for not getting more in the deal, the Astros must have known that Gose was high on the Jays’ priority list and may have played a little hardball with AA, limiting him on the trade. That’s what happens when you go after a guy and he gets away the first time, everybody else knows that you want him badly, therefore you have don’t have a bluff.
It’s not such a bad deal (Not the greatest but not the worst). DH/1st base is much easier to acquire than a skilled outfielder. It shows how much AA is thinking ahead for Wells’ departure. We’ll see what happens. As for not getting more in the deal, the Astros must have known that Gose was high on the Jays’ priority list and may have played a little hardball with AA, limiting him on the trade. That’s what happens when you go after a guy and he gets away the first time, everybody else knows that you want him badly, therefore you have don’t have a bluff.
It’s not such a bad deal (Not the greatest but not the worst). DH/1st base is much easier to acquire than a skilled outfielder. It shows how much AA is thinking ahead for Wells’ departure. We’ll see what happens.
As for not getting more in the deal, the Astros must have known that Gose was high on the Jays’ priority list and may have played a little hardball with AA, limiting him on the trade. That’s what happens when you go after a guy and he gets away the first time, everybody else knows that you want him badly, therefore you have don’t have a bluff.
It’s not such a bad deal (Not the greatest but not the worst). DH/1st base is much easier to acquire than a skilled outfielder. It shows how much AA is thinking ahead for Wells’ departure. We’ll see what happens.
As for not getting more in the deal, the Astros must have known that Gose was high on the Jays’ priority list and may have played a little hardball with AA, limiting him on the trade. That’s what happens when you go after a guy and he gets away the first time, everybody else knows that you want him badly, therefore you have don’t have a bluff.
Wallace’s numbers are pretty much RIGHT at his team’s average numbers (triple slash)…isn’t that a little odd? Take the Vegas PCL numbers with a grain of salt.
Wallace’s numbers are pretty much RIGHT at his team’s average numbers (triple slash)…isn’t that a little odd? Take the Vegas PCL numbers with a grain of salt.
Crawford’s minor league stats are better than Gose’s stats….Gose’s birthday is five days after Crawford’s, similar body type, and both drafted in early second round….You can probably say Gose is one notch below Crawford.Is leading his A+ league in runs scored at age of 19….not bad when his team’s leading slugger is 14th in the league for slugging percentage…he is also leading the league in triples and second in stolen bases….as per the steals vs caught stealing ratio….Crawford’s was far worse at age 19
Crawford’s minor league stats are better than Gose’s stats….Gose’s birthday is five days after Crawford’s, similar body type, and both drafted in early second round….You can probably say Gose is one notch below Crawford.Is leading his A+ league in runs scored at age of 19….not bad when his team’s leading slugger is 14th in the league for slugging percentage…he is also leading the league in triples and second in stolen bases….as per the steals vs caught stealing ratio….Crawford’s was far worse at age 19
I can’t understand where all this hate for Wallace is coming from. How can anyone possibly say that his value has gone down? From the beginning his value was predicated 90% on what he does offensively as opposed to defensively. If anything maybe he lost a little luster moving from 3B to 1B since first baseman are a little more readily available. But in terms of numbers Wallace has actually improved this year if you consider that he’s doing at a slughtly higher level.
He was always a lousy defender who ranked up lot’s of ko’s. Offensively a .301/.359 line with 24 dbls and 18 hrs during his first season at AAA is pretty dam good.
Yes…and he did this at the age of 22 no less….On the surface, you can say there must be something wrong with him because he was traded three times very recently…..However, he was involved in three of the biggest trades in the past two years…
Correct me if I’m reading your comment wrong, but Wallace is 24 years old. Not 22.
Also, read Mick’s and Tim’s comments below. Wallace should still be a top 100 prospect, but I honestly don’t see how it’s possible that he’s a top 50.
To me, Wallace is a DH in the making.
Yes…and he did this at the age of 22 no less….On the surface, you can say there must be something wrong with him because he was traded three times very recently…..However, he was involved in three of the biggest trades in the past two years…
You also have to remember that he’s now in the Astros system. By default, that makes him an overrated prospect who will never be a major contributor at the big league level.
You also have to remember that he’s now in the Astros system. By default, that makes him an overrated prospect who will never be a major contributor at the big league level.
brett wallace will be a slightly better eric hinskie.
brett wallace will be a slightly better eric hinskie.
It’s in the PCL though, where offensive stats are generally inflated. Jarrett Haufpauir is outhitting Wallace so far this season. And Wallace’s splits are not great against right handed pitching. A lefty bat in MLB who doesn’t hit righties well is not something I’d count on as a franchise player.
He’ll be a decent player, but not a star. Toronto needs as many stars as possible to compete in the AL East, and Gose has a chance to be a star. That’s what AA and his scouts thought, and that’s why they made the deal. Finding a star at 19 is a risky business, but it’s how a team like Toronto will be able to compete with NY.
It’s in the PCL though, where offensive stats are generally inflated. Jarrett Haufpauir is outhitting Wallace so far this season. And Wallace’s splits are not great against right handed pitching. A lefty bat in MLB who doesn’t hit righties well is not something I’d count on as a franchise player.
He’ll be a decent player, but not a star. Toronto needs as many stars as possible to compete in the AL East, and Gose has a chance to be a star. That’s what AA and his scouts thought, and that’s why they made the deal. Finding a star at 19 is a risky business, but it’s how a team like Toronto will be able to compete with NY.
Not his first year in AAA, he spent the majority of last year in AAA, putting up nearly identical numbers to this year. Hence why his value has dropped. He’s repeating the level, is playing in an even more extreme hitters park, yet has shown little to no progress with the bat, his K/BB has not improved, and has also moved from 3B to 1B since last year, meaning his bat has to be that much better for him to have the same value…and as of right now, it isn’t.
I can’t understand where all this hate for Wallace is coming from. How can anyone possibly say that his value has gone down? From the beginning his value was predicated 90% on what he does offensively as opposed to defensively. If anything maybe he lost a little luster moving from 3B to 1B since first baseman are a little more readily available. But in terms of numbers Wallace has actually improved this year if you consider that he’s doing at a slughtly higher level.
He was always a lousy defender who ranked up lot’s of ko’s. Offensively a .301/.359 line with 24 dbls and 18 hrs during his first season at AAA is pretty dam good.
29th in the PCL in OPS in a repeat year. Average to below average 1st base prospect / DH are a dime a dozen. The Blue Jays have plenty of that. Prospects like Gose are much harder to find.
we actually don’t…
we actually don’t have any True 1B prospect (even Wallace was a converted 1B)
29th in the PCL in OPS in a repeat year. Average to below average 1st base prospect / DH are a dime a dozen. The Blue Jays have plenty of that. Prospects like Gose are much harder to find.
I find it hilarious how 95% of the time fans treat Baseball America rankings like the bible, but when a perceived poor GM in Ed Wade seemingly rips off AA, Jays fans and Ed Wade haters alike desperately try to rationalize things. If this trade went the other way there wouldn’t be a second thought on who got the better end of this deal.
True, Ed Wade has just gotten that reputation. Its is probly compounded by the perception that the Astros mortgaged their entire farm system in trades over the last decade. But when you look at the players traded probly close to 20, none of those players have amounted to anything except Ben Zobrist.
Perhaps, this trade shows us how AA will try to get Montero, Joba, Kelly, or Iggy.
Clearly, Boston and New York told him to go pound sound, just like Philly did when he asked for Gose. With Gose, never the less, he continued his pursuit and acquired him through a three way trade.
He is most likely trying to work out a three (or four or five) way trade to get his targets.
You can also argue Gose was part of a five way trade where Jays sent Halladay, League, and Chomenyz (probably incorrect spelling) for Drabek, Gose, D’Arnaud, and Morrow involving Philly, Seattle, Houston, and Oakland.
This shows his commitment to getting quality over quantity….stay tuned for another trade.
I am SHOCKED about this deal. Me, and Astros fan, I couldn’t be happier right now. We got rid of Oswalt (Awesome), picked up Happ (Awesome), then traded this young prospect for a MLB-Ready First basemen in Wallace (AWESOME).
What I really love about this trade is that we need a 1st basemen prospect. We aren’t finding that in Chris Shelton! With this trade, the Astros can freely trade Berkman and not have to worry about who is to replace him.
I say, Astros, to trade Berkman now, put Pedro Feliz at first, then next season, call up Wallace and lets see what he can do.
Just my two cents. And also, HAPP IS MAKING HIS ASTROS DEBUT TONIGHT! Too bad I am going to the Astros game tomorrow and not today. >.<
If JA Happ continues his 6.6 SO/9 and 3.5 BB/9 career rates, along with his 4.50 career FIP, he’s going to fall faster down to earth than an asteroid.
But that’s the thing, he won’t. He is still fairly young. Give him time to build and he will be a great pitcher, already is.
Gose has a .325 OBP in the minor leagues. He has struck out over 100 times in 418 at bats, he’s stolen 36 bases and been thrown out 27 times. I’ve watched him on n umerous occasions down here in Clearwater. This guy is going to require HUGE leaps to ever contribute offensively. He’s Joey Gathwright who can’t even hit for average. Defense has value, but there are plenty of guys who play solid defense without being a total liability.
People talk about tools, but the ability to take a pitch is a tool. The ability to hit a ball is a tool. Gose does not have them. He’s all speed and defense.
word is that gose is a converted pitcher. doesn’t that cut a 19 year old a bit of slack to develop his numbers/plate approach/etc?
Very rarely do players develop plate discipline. It happens, but not very often. If he showed any kind of on-base skills, I’d be willing to cut him a break, but IMO he’s a real longshot. People say he’s got a high ceiling because he’s fast. If you’ve seen this guy hit, you know he will never have double-digit power unless he makes huge changes. It’s possible, but I think the Jays gave away a solid MLB bat for a backup centerfielder who can steal bases. Welcome the new Willy Taveras.
Gose is also playing at a higher level than he should be. the phillies had plans to move him through the system rapidly.
“He’s in a league that’s really ahead of where he should be,” said Anthopoulos. “You have to discount the numbers a little bit.”
he was one of the youngest players in the league and has played great the past 2 months.
I find it interesting that we promoted Wallace since we acquired him. Everything was positive, we had our eye on him for a long time and gladly traded another top prospect to get him. Something doesn’t add up. I’ve heard all the chatter about the high ceiling but come on, Gose is playing at high level A and isn’t tearing it up. I am now really confused about the direction of the club. Everything seemed to be clear and going so well until this. Sorry, I’m an AA fan, but this wasn’t a good move.
As pastlives pointed out, it’s going to be nearly impossible for Wallace to become a 3 WAR player because of lacked defense and average power. Just to compare, when Overbay had his great 2006 season he was 2.5 WAR.
Gose is an underager in high A with a higher ceiling. I am now really confused about the direction of the club. Why? the Jays wanted to try and compete in 3 years minimum when Anthopolous took over. It hasn’t even been one. Have faith.
look at how good the tigers have been with austin jackson in the lineup, or how valuable gutierez(mariners) has been
Jackson is a 20 year old rookie who should put up better power numbers as he fills out his body, and is putting up a 2.4 WAR.
Gutierrez is having a down year, but last year he was a 6.1 WAR player.
I’m a little confused by your comment though. Both those players are CF’s.
Wallace is 24 and repeating AAA, in the PCL no less, and can only garner a .509SLG%? Not much to get hyped on there. His OBP is even lower than lasts.
austin jackson is 23, and i meant to post to another person, sorry.
Oops so he is. Case in point why I shouldn’t listen to Pat Tabler during Jays games. No worries though.
It is hard to judge Wallace’s AAA numbers since he had a wrist injury similar to Snider’s after his first month of play….
on the flip side…
It is hard to imagine a Jays lineup in two years time with left handed hitters in the third, fourth, and fifth spot (Wallace, Snider, and Lind)….so…I couldn’t help wondering how AA will change things to get a right handed bat into the heart of the order….perhaps…there is a long term future for Bautista
i admit that I was high on Wallace and that now he’s not part of Toronto I am underrating him slightly.
But if he doesn’t tear it up in PCL, especially in Vegas, for the second time through it, it kinda sends a hint that maybe he’s not FANTASTIC, maybe just above average