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Archives for August 2010

The D’Backs’ 2011 Rotation

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The D'Backs hoped that Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson could carry the rotation through the 2010 season. Next year, the team will rely on a completely different set of arms. Ian Kennedy, Joe Saunders and Daniel Hudson were all in different organizations this time last year, but they figure to have spots in Arizona's 2011 rotation.

Rodrigo Lopez and Barry Enright now hold the remaining two sports in the rotation, but Lopez is a free agent after the season. Enright, who has posted a 2.81 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in his first 41.2 major league innings, has emerged as a legitimate candidate for a 2011 rotation spot.

Even if Kennedy, Saunders, Hudson and Enright remain healthy and claim four starting spots, one opening remains. Bryan Augenstein, who entered the season as the team's 11th-best prospect, according to Baseball America, has been hit hard at Triple A. The club could look to Kevin Mulvey, who has big league experience and acceptable, but not inspiring Triple A numbers (4.97 ERA).

Another pair of current minor leaguers could also compete for spots in next year's rotation. Matt Torra, 26, has been hittable at Triple A, where he has a solid 3.97 ERA and has shown excellent control (1.8 BB/9). Wade Miley, a 2008 first rounder, has pitched well this year, but the 23-year-old has just nine appearances above A ball. Jarrod Parker could have been a rotation candidate, but he will miss 2010 with Tommy John surgery, so the D'Backs can't count on him in 2011.

Like Parker, Webb has yet to pitch in 2010 because of injuries. The 2006 Cy Young Award winner hits free agency after the season and doesn't figure to be the sort of pitcher the D'Backs would pursue. Because no potential starter other than Saunders has much major league experience, Arizona seems like a fit for a steady veteran looking to sign a one-year deal. A dependable arm would complement Hudson, Kennedy, Enright, Mulvey, Augenstein, Miley, Torra and Parker, who have combined to start just 55 big league games. 

That inexperience will likely put the D'Backs in the market for a veteran starter. Dave Bush, Kevin Millwood, Lopez, and former D'Backs Doug Davis, Jon Garland and Livan Hernandez could all hit the open market this winter. Unless the D'Backs are comfortable starting Joe Saunders and a bunch of youngsters, I'd expect them to pursue a consistent free agent starter.

Dodgers Interested In Jose Guillen

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3:23pm: The Dodgers' interest in Guillen is "thin," according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times (on Twitter).

1:32pm: The Dodgers have "strong interest" in Jose Guillen for a part-time role, tweets ESPN's Enrique Rojas.  He adds that the Dodgers might wait for Guillen to be released, as the DH/outfielder was designated for assignment by the Royals five days ago.  The Giants are the only other team known to have some measure of interest in Guillen.

The Dodgers are 5.5 games out of the wild card, but it is surprising to see them showing interest in another outfield type.  The current group includes Scott Podsednik, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Reed Johnson, and Jay Gibbons.  Manny Ramirez is on the DL with a calf injury.

Guillen, 34, is hitting .255/.314/.429 with 16 home runs in 437 plate appearances this season.  The Royals are expected to assume most of his remaining pay one way or another.

Royals Sign Venezuelan Shortstop For $1.1MM

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The Royals officially signed Venezuelan shortstop Humberto Arteaga for $1.1MM, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. The Royals like the 16-year-old’s quickness, positioning and running speed. Arteaga has a compact swing, so the club expects him to make contact and produce lots of line drives, though his power potential seems limited.

As Badler points out, Arteaga joins Adonis Cardona (Blue Jays), Ariel Ovando (Astros), Renato Nunez (A’s), Phillips Castillo (Mariners) and Danry Vasquez (Tigers) in the group of international prospects who have signed for more than $1MM this summer.

The Royals have been spending big on draftees and international players. Last year, for example, the club committed millions to both Noel Arguelles and Wil Myers.

The Tigers’ Offseason

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Tigers owner Mike Ilitch appears willing to spend some money this offseason to return his team to prominence.  Let's take a look at the team's commitments and needs.

The Tigers would have a payroll in the $65MM range if they filled all their needs internally.  This club could easily add $50MM worth of 2011 salaries to the payroll during the offseason.

At catcher, Gerald Laird and Alex Avila have split time this year.  Avila could take on a larger role in Laird's absence.  In that case GM Dave Dombrowski could just bring in a veteran backup.  If Dombrowski changes his mind, Victor Martinez is the big name on the free agent market.

Aside from Miguel Cabrera at first base, the Tigers' infield picture is uncertain.  Carlos Guillen and Ramon Santiago are signed, while Scott Sizemore, Will Rhymes, and Don Kelly may play roles.  The free agent market offers plenty of middling veterans, but the one big name will be third baseman Adrian Beltre.

Outfield holdovers will include Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, Ryan Raburn, and Kelly.  If Magglio Ordonez and Johnny Damon depart, the Tigers could be in the outfield market.  Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth are the premium choices.

The rotation needs work, with question marks after Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.  Maybe the Tigers will join the Cliff Lee bidding, but otherwise secondary hurlers like Jorge de la Rosa, Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Carl Pavano, and Javier Vazquez might help.  The problem is that not all of those guys translate well to the American League.  The Tigers' bullpen might only require tinkering.

The Tigers have a ton of money to spend this winter, but their needs are abundant too.  Dombrowski will need to break his recent pattern of avoiding multiyear free agent deals if he's to bring in any top free agents.  Of course, he does have a penchant for big trades.

Indians Acquire Luke Carlin

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The Indians acquired catcher Luke Carlin from the Pirates for a player to be named later, tweets Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  The backstop had signed a minor league deal with the Pirates in mid-January.

Carlin, 29, has big league time with the Diamondbacks and Padres.  This year in Indianapolis he hit .239/.331/.317, a big dropoff from his work in the Pacific Coast League the previous two years.

Scot Shields May Be Designated Soon

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Angels reliever Scot Shields "could be designated for assignment soon," in the opinion of Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times.  Relievers Jason Bulger and Brian Stokes, both dealing with shoulder injuries, may return from the disabled list soon. Shields could be a roster casualty.

Shields, a 35-year-old righty, is a lifelong Angel.  As DiGiovanna notes, he's the last remaining link to the '02 World Series champion team.  Shields' control has never been great, but it's been terrible the last two years.  Since 2009 he has a 6.23 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 7.3 BB/9, with seven home runs allowed in 56.3 innings.  He had knee surgery last summer. 

Shields signed a three-year, $14.6MM extension in March of '07, a contract that began with the '08 season.  Angels GM Bill Stoneman committed to four years of Shields at top dollar.  He was 31 at the time and had compiled a staggering 284.6 relief innings over 2004-06.

Last Year’s Non-Tenders

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On October 5th and November 20th of last year I named my non-tender candidates.  On December 12th, many players were actually cut.  With the benefit of hindsight, consider these groupings:

Thankfully Tendered Contracts: Jose Bautista, Matt Lindstrom, Delmon Young, Matt Belisle

The Blue Jays tendered Bautista a contract and signed him the following day at the same salary he had in 2009 ($2.4MM).  To me that's a sign that if Bautista had communicated the desire for a raise prior to the December 12th deadline, he would've been non-tendered.  The Astros did well to buy low on Lindstrom, who probably wouldn't have been tendered a contract had he stayed with the Marlins.

The Twins never considered cutting Young despite an unimpressive '09 season.  He's only earning $2.6MM this year, anyway.  Including him on the list of non-tender candidates was entirely my bad idea.  Belisle received a very small raise from the Rockies and has been excellent out of their pen.

Should Have Been Tendered Contracts: Matt Capps, John Buck, D.J. Carrasco, Kelly Johnson

Jonny Gomes was left off the list since the Reds were able to re-sign him cheaply.  Given the strong play of Martin Prado for the Braves, you could make the case that cutting Johnson was the right move.  But we are operating with the benefit of hindsight here, and maybe they could've found him some playing time and rebuilt his value.

Capps was a surprise non-tender by the Pirates.  GM Neal Huntington did well in the Octavio Dotel trade, but what if he had been able to peddle both relievers?  Retaining Buck would've made sense for the Royals, but they spent more money on a player lacking upside in Jason Kendall.  I wouldn't say the White Sox badly needed D.J. Carrasco, but he retained value this year.

Should Have Been Non-Tendered: Bobby Jenks, Mark Teahen, Jeremy Hermida, John Maine, Conor Jackson, Dioner Navarro, Brian Bruney, Kelly Shoppach, Jeff Francoeur

In mid-December most of these risks were worth taking.  Jenks hasn't been as bad as his 5.13 ERA, but the White Sox could've spent that money elsewhere.  Obviously traded players like Bruney, Hermida, Shoppach, and Teahen weren't going to be non-tendered by their new teams.  But did the White Sox and Rays have to give Teahen and Shoppach multiyear deals?  Overall these nine players earned over $30MM in 2010. 

Will The Mets Try To Trade Carlos Beltran?

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From 2001-2008, Carlos Beltran was at least a five-win player every year except for '05.  Even last year, despite missing July and August with a bone bruise behind his knee, Beltran provided value.  However, the Mets and Beltran battled about his decision to have January knee surgery, a procedure that delayed his 2010 debut until July 15th.  Beltran's first 90 plate appearances and 180 innings in center field have gone so poorly that David Waldstein of the New York Times says the Mets would let him go for nothing if a team claims him off waivers this month.

Waldstein finds a waiver claim "extremely unlikely," as Beltran is owed over $5.5MM this year and $18.5MM in 2011 before his contract is up.  He has a full no-trade clause.  Waldstein expects the Mets to be open to trading Beltran this winter but believes the outfielder's salary will be an impediment.  He suggests the Mets would be reluctant to assume much of Beltran's contract in a trade.

This might be fantasy baseball-type talk, but I can't help but notice that the money owed to Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano matches up closely with the money owed to Beltran, Luis Castillo, and Oliver Perez.

Cardinals To Sign Supplemental Pick Jenkins

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Cardinals supplemental draft pick Tyrell Jenkins will sign with the Cardinals this week, according to Coleman Swierc of KLTV. He'll get a $1.3MM bonus, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law (on Twitter).  Jenkins passed on a chance to play football at Baylor, explaining to KLTV, "I know that I will miss out on college, but me and my mom talked it over, and financially it was right, and this is the best choice for me." Baseball America estimates MLB's slot recommendation at $705,600, so Jenkins beat that easily.

Jenkins was drafted 50th overall this year, representing the Cardinals' supplemental pick for the loss of Joel Pineiro.  The prep righty was the 43rd-ranked talent in the draft according to Baseball America.  BA considered him the draft's most athletic pitcher, adding that he's "raw but has tremendous upside."

A couple of big-name Cardinals draft picks remain unsigned with seven days to go before MLB's deadline: 25th overall pick Zack Cox and 12th-round pick Austin Wilson.

Jed Hoyer’s First Year

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Jed Hoyer has been the general manager of the Padres since October 26th, and much of his first year is in the books.  We looked at Alex Anthopoulos yesterday; now it's Hoyer's turn.

  • Signed Chris Denorfia to a minor league deal - 12-18-09.  This early move was a winner, as Denorfia has a .266/.324/.456 line in 189 plate appearances for the Padres.  
  • Acquired Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham from Athletics for Kevin Kouzmanoff and Eric Sogard, 1-16-10.  Cunningham has hit well in 85 big league plate appearances, though he didn't do anything with 246 PAs in Triple A.  Hairston has disappointed in his return campaign.  Neither Kouzmanoff nor his replacement Chase Headley have hit much.  This trade might ultimately be settled by comparing the careers of Sogard and Cunningham, as the veterans could be non-tendered this winter.  
  • Signed Jerry Hairston Jr. to a one-year, $2.125MM deal – 1-18-10.  Hairston has performed as expected – versatile glove, weak bat.  He deserves credit for playing an apparently passable shortstop this year. 
  • Signed Jon Garland to a one-year, $5.3MM deal – 1-26-10.  The Garland signing was praised as a bargain at the time, and he's provided 139.3 innings of 3.55 ball.  His peripheral numbers predict something closer to 4.50 from here on out, but the innings are good value at that price. 
  • Signed Matt Stairs to a minor league deal worth $700K – 1-26-10.  A knee injury is partially to blame, but Stairs hasn't hit at all this year. 
  • Signed Yorvit Torrealba to a one-year, $1.25MM deal – 2-9-10.  Hard to go wrong with this below-market contract, and Torrealba has pleased the Padres with a .317/.381/.400 line. 
  • Acquired Miguel Tejada and $1.1MM from Orioles for Wynn Pelzer, 7-29-10.  It remains to be seen if a move back to the NL will rejuvenate Tejada's bat, but they needed an infielder and there wasn't much out there. 
  • Acquired Ryan Ludwick from Cardinals and cash from Indians, giving up Corey Kluber and Nick Greenwood, 7-31-10.  Nice move by Hoyer, picking up a power hitter many people didn't realize was available.  Ludwick is under team control for 2011, too. 
  • The key to Hoyer's first draft will be signing prep righty Karsten Whitson, opines ESPN's Keith Law.  Whitson was drafted out of high school, ninth overall.
  • The Padres' surprising 64-46 record and first place standing indicates Hoyer has done something right or at least not made any moves to hurt the club.  He inherited the majority of the team's stellar pitching staff, so Kevin Towers deserves a fist bump.  The Garland and Torrealba signings were solid, though both players might have given the San Diego discount.  Hoyer's trades have yet to show a return.

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