Poll: Are The Dodgers Still In It?
The odds are against the Dodgers, but they aren't necessarily out of contention. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes showed, the Dodgers could shift from buy mode to sell mode if they don't start playing better. How imperative is a turnaround? They trail the division-leading Padres by 9.0 games and the Wild Card-leading Giants by 7.0 games. Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds report calculates that the Dodgers had a 3% chance of making the playoffs this morning.
The team acquired Ted Lilly, Scott Podsednik and Octavio Dotel before the July 31st trade deadline, but they have lost six consecutive games and are 54-52. Manny Ramirez should return from the DL, but he recently suffered a setback, according to Steve Dilbeck of the LA Times. Once Manny's healthy, he and Ned Colletti's deadline acquisitions could combine to turn the team around, but there are no guarantees. Tell us what you think:
Are the Dodgers contenders?
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Odds & Ends: White Sox, Mariners, Lowell, Myers
More links for Tuesday, as Mike Lowell returns to the Red Sox lineup and blasts a homer over the Green Monster…
- White Sox minor league hitting coordinator Jeff Manto told Paul M. Banks of the Sports Bank that prospect Brandon Short has "some of the fastest hands we have in the organization," when discussing Chicago's prospects.
- Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik told the AP that Don Wakamatsu is the team's manager for the foreseeable future. "We are trying to win baseball games with Don running the ship," Zduriencik said (link at CBS Sports).
- The Red Sox told Lowell they won't release him, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com (via Twitter). Speier notes that the Yankees were on Lowell's no-trade list (Twitter link).
- The Astros wanted Ruben Tejada and Bobby Parnell from the Mets for Brett Myers, according to Peter Gammons (Twitter link).
- The Mets released Ramon Ortiz Sunday, according to the International League transactions page. GM Omar Minaya signed the right-hander back in June.
- Yahoo's Jeff Passan explains how Barret Loux is a casualty of the rule that guarantees teams a future pick if they fail to sign their first rounder. The D'Backs first rounder has an uncertain future after a failed physical.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo shows how some prospects have performed since switching organizations before the July 31st trade deadline.
- Pat Andriola of FanGraphs explains the Nationals' choices with Adam Dunn, who hit waivers today.
Three Decisions: Matt Guerrier
Matt Guerrier currently projects as a Type A free agent under the Elias Rankings. When he hits free agency after the season, the Twins will have a major decision to make: is Guerrier worth an offer of arbitration? Depending on what GM Bill Smith does, Guerrier will have his own a choice to make and so will baseball's other teams. Here's a breakdown of the three possible decisions, starting with the Twins:
The Twins' Decision
If Guerrier maintains his Type A status, he will have the potential to bring the Twins two top picks in the 2011 draft. For that to happen, Guerrier would have to turn arbitration down and sign with another club.
The right-hander has led the league in appearances each of the past two seasons and has a 2.89 ERA this year with 6.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. It's another solid season for the 32-year-old Ohio native, and he'd fit well in many bullpens.
Guerrier is making just 3.15MM in 2010 and hasn't had an exceptional career before this point, so he would presumably make something like $4MM if he accepts arbitration. The Twins have already committed $72MM to their 2011 payroll and that figure doesn't include Matt Capps' expected raise through arbitration. The Twins, who will pay Joe Nathan $11.25MM next year, may hesitate to commit even $4MM to Guerrier, who's good, but not irreplaceable. They could decide not to offer arbitration and forgo the potential draft picks, but if they do offer arb, Guerrier will have to make a decision of his own.
Guerrier's Decision
If the Twins offer arbitration, Guerrier and his agent would have to decide whether to accept the offer, like Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Soriano did last year, or turn it down. Some relievers, like Juan Cruz, have had trouble finding jobs after turning down arb because of their Type A status, so Guerrier could simply accept, since he's not a household name. He and his agent will have from December 1st to December 7th to decide.
However, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner and Mike Gonzalez all found jobs last winter even though the teams that signed them had to give up compensation picks to do so. Those three relievers all had lower ERAs and higher strikeout rates last year than Guerrier has in 2010. However, Guerrier has a lower walk rate than any of those three pitchers had a year ago.
He and his representatives would have to decide whether clubs consider Guerrier an impact reliever who's worth surrendering a top pick for. It seems quite unlikely that Guerrier would turn down arbitration if the Twins offer it, but teams will have to make a decision if Guerrier turns down arb.
Other Teams' Decision
Is Guerrier worth surrendering a first round pick for? To his credit, he has posted ERAs below 3.00 in three of the past four seasons, has an excellent slider and was durable enough to lead the league in appearances in 2008-09. Still, his career-low homer rate is keeping his ERA artificially low, he doesn't strike tons of batters out and reliever performance can be volatile. I'd be surprised if a front office in baseball believed that Guerrier was worth surrendering a first-round pick for.
However, they wouldn't necessarily have to. Teams that sign multiple Type A free agents only give one first rounder away, naturally. Guerrier would only cost a second or third-rounder for clubs that are especially aggressive in free agency, so those teams could have stronger interest.
The Conclusion
If the Twins feel they can afford to have three well-paid relievers in their 'pen, offering Guerrier arb wouldn't hurt. After all, they'd have the chance to obtain a supplementary first round pick and another pick if he signs elsewhere. Guerrier's representatives would likely advise him to accept arb, since there's no guarantee that rival clubs would have interest. If Guerrier turns arb down, he could be in for a Juan Cruz-esque job search unless a team that signs multiple Type A free agents makes him an offer.
Orange County Flyers Sign Mark Prior
The Orange County Flyers of the Golden Baseball League signed Mark Prior, according to MLB.com's Corey Brock (on Twitter). Coincidentally, the signing comes one year after the Padres released Prior. The 29-year-old didn't appear in a game with San Diego and hasn't seen any big league action since 2006.
Prior, the second overall pick in the 2001 draft, auditioned for MLB teams last month, but his stuff was "just all right," according to one veteran scout. It's been a long time since Prior pitched to a 2.43 ERA in 200-plus innings as a 22-year-old, so he'll join the Golden League instead of a major league organization. A number of big leaguers, including Daniel Nava and Scott Richmond have climbed from the Golden League to the major leagues. Now, Prior will attempt to prove the health of his right shoulder and do the same.
Astros Designate Anderson Hernandez
The Astros designated Anderson Hernandez for assignment to make room for Geoff Blum, according to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart (Twitter link). The Astros claimed Hernandez from the Indians in late July, after Cleveland designated him for assignment.
The 27-year-old utility player has appeared at second, third and short this year, and he has also played a game in left field. However, Hernandez has just a .230/.260/.284 line in 77 plate appearances. That isn't far from the .617 OPS he has posted in his six-year MLB career.
Marlins Designate Jorge Sosa For Assignment
The Marlins designated Jorge Sosa for assignment to make room for Sean West, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (Twitter link). The Marlins, who signed Sosa in April, designated him for assignment in June and outrighted him to the minors after he cleared waivers.
The 32-year-old right-hander has a 5.87 ERA with 4.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 15.1 major league innings this year. Sosa relies on a low-90s fastball and a hard slider that he uses about 40% of the time. He has a 45% ground ball rate this year, but that's higher than usual for him and the sample size is small.
It seems unlikely that any club will claim Sosa given his struggles at the major league level. In 46 innings at Triple A New Orleans, he does have a 4.11 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.
Adam Dunn Placed On Waivers
Nationals slugger Adam Dunn was placed on waivers today, according to ESPN's Buster Olney. This was an entirely expected and standard move by Washington, as hundreds of players will hit the waiver wire this month. Teams have 48 hours to make a claim on Dunn. Once word of the winning claim comes in, things may get interesting, but there's a good chance the Nationals pull him back.
For a reminder on how waiver trades work, click here.
Odds & Ends: Westbrook, Beltre, Oliver Perez
Eight years ago today, the Diamondbacks signed amateur free agent Carlos Gonzalez out of Venezuela. Two major trades later, CarGo is establishing himself as a star in Colorado. Links for Tuesday…
- ESPN's Jerry Crasnick runs through a slew of August trade candidates, including Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, and Chone Figgins.
- The Padres originally intended to acquire Jake Westbrook for themselves, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wonders how teams will value Adrian Beltre on the free agent market this winter.
- The Mets won't try to convince Oliver Perez to accept a minor league assignment again, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. The Mets still don't plan on releasing Perez, preferring him to take a roster spot.
- The Braves released Willy Taveras from their Triple A club, according to the International League transactions page.
Athletics Claim Jeff Larish
The Athletics claimed minor league corner infielder Jeff Larish off waivers from the Tigers, reports MLB.com's Jason Beck. He'd been designated for assignment on Friday to clear a spot for Jeff Frazier. To make room for Larish on the 40-man roster, the A's designated infielder Adam Heether for assignment.
Larish, 28 in October, hit .275/.373/.497 at Triple A this year, his third stint at the level. He was coming off September wrist surgery. He's played both infield corner positions in his minor league career, as the Tigers moved him to third base once he became blocked by Miguel Cabrera at first. Before the 2009 season, Baseball America ranked Larish fifth among Tigers prospects (just ahead of the recently-traded Wilkin Ramirez). BA called Larish a "polarizing player among scouts," praising his raw power but questioning his batting stance, ability to cover the outside part of the plate, and problems hitting breaking pitches.
Tigers’ Season Hanging In The Balance
The Tigers open up a four-game set with a doubleheader against the division-leading White Sox today. The series represents a crucial chance to gain ground, but a White Sox sweep would close the door on Detroit's season. One AL exec told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick the Tigers "would have to be pretty far back for something to happen" in terms of GM Dave Dombrowski trading veterans, but ten-plus games out might qualify, in my opinion.
On Wednesday, the Tigers gave up a pitching prospect to acquire Jhonny Peralta, with the Indians paying most of the infielder's salary. Detroit's only deadline day move was to ship Wilkin Ramirez to the Braves.
Should Dombrowski decide to sell off his impending free agents, he can shop Johnny Damon, Brandon Inge, Jeremy Bonderman, Gerald Laird, and Peralta. Carlos Guillen, signed through next year, may also be expendable. Ryan Raburn is another trade candidate, though perhaps such a deal is better suited for the offseason. Magglio Ordonez should clear waivers, but it's hard to imagine a team acquiring him as he recovers from a broken ankle.
Damon should draw interest if he's made available. He sports a .281/.373/.432 line, and he raked in July. He's been battling back spasms, but is in today's lineup. About $2.7MM remains on his $8MM contract, and he has no-trade protection.
Brandon Inge is ahead of schedule in returning from a broken left hand. For teams looking for a solid glove at the hot corner, Inge could fit. Bonderman might be able to fill a fourth starter role, especially in the National League. The $4.2MM owed to him would obviously be prohibitive; the Tigers would have to assume much of it.