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Unfinished Business: AL West

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We've examined the unfinished business for the NL East, Central, and West; now it's time to check out the AL West.

  • Angels: Third base, outfielder/DH, leadoff man.  Adrian Beltre remains a great fit for the Angels, but owner Arte Moreno criticized recent huge deals for Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth.  Another possibility could be to add Scott Podsednik or Johnny Damon in what many fans would deem a disappointing offseason.
  • Athletics: Reliever.  GM Billy Beane mentioned 12 days ago that he might be in the market for a reliever after sending Henry Rodriguez to the Nationals in the Josh Willingham deal.  However, that was before the A's inked Rich Harden to improve their pitching depth.  We can't rule out the possibility that the Angels and Rangers remove themselves from the Beltre bidding and Scott Boras has to come crawling back to the A's.
  • Mariners: Starting pitcher, left fielder, reliever, backup infielder.  The Mariners figure to add a back-end starter, and possibly a reliever if they move David Aardsma.  Back around the Winter Meetings, there was talk of finding a left fielder to supplement Michael Saunders.  They could also use a reserve infielder, so the Ms should be active in the shallow end of the free agent pool.
  • Rangers: Designated hitter, possible extensions.  It's a buyer's market for designated hitters, so the Rangers can probably get Vladimir Guerrero back at their price.  Theoretically, they could make a move for Adrian Beltre and shift or trade Michael Young.  Brandon Webb was affordable, so the Rangers could sign another veteran starter if they're so inclined.  The Rangers may also look into extensions for arbitration eligible players like Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson in the coming months.

Odds & Ends: McCrory, Gregg, Hill

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A year ago today, the Giants signed Mark DeRosa to a two-year, $12MM deal.  Due to a wrist injury, DeRosa wasn't a factor in the team's World Championship.  Today's links:

Bill Me Later: Backloaded Multiyear Deals

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Most multiyear free agent contracts are backloaded to some extent.  For example, Adam Dunn's four-year, $56MM deal has an average annual value of $14MM but pays the player $12MM in 2011.  The White Sox will pay Dunn about 85% of his deal's AAV in the upcoming season, which reflects the average first-year percentage for the 36 multiyear deals signed so far this offseason.

Some teams have opted for a more drastic "bill me later" plan, however.  The biggest example is the Phillies' five-year, $120MM deal with Cliff Lee.  That works out to $24MM a year on average, but they'll pay him only $11MM in 2011 – just 46% of the AAV.  The backloading is accomplished by $25MM salaries in the final three years, plus what appears to be the biggest option buyout ever at $12.5MM.  The deals for A.J. Pierzynski, Jayson Werth, and Orlando Hudson are other examples of heavily backloaded contracts that pay the player less than 70% of the AAV in 2011.  Including part of his signing bonus, Werth will make only $12MM in '11.

Dodgers GM Ned Colletti did some big-time backloading this winter in his three-year deals for Matt Guerrier, Ted Lilly, and Juan Uribe.  Overall the trio will be paid 67% of their AAV in 2011.  Lilly, for example, will make only $7.5MM in 2011 but $12MM in '12 and $13.5MM in '13.

Teams can also pay later by negotiating deferred money into the contract.  This is the case with Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Paul Konerko, and even Carlos Pena's one-year deal.  These deferrals are often without interest, so the team benefits greatly.

Some teams prefer balanced contracts.  Including his signing bonus, the Red Sox are paying Carl Crawford a full $20MM in 2011, almost the same as his AAV.  They didn't backload Bobby Jenks' deal either.  The contracts for Victor Martinez, Aubrey Huff, and Jorge de la Rosa are also spread out evenly. 

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for contract details.  Click here to download a spreadsheet used to create this post.

Last Year’s Best January Signings

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If January is a time for bargains, we should have plenty of examples from 2010.  The best Major League signings from that month:

For the most part, the key was to sign someone coming off a disappointing season to a one-year contract.  Candidates for 2011: Nick Johnson, Derrek Lee, Johnny Damon, Scott Hairston, Manny Ramirez, Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Duchscherer, Jeff Francis, Kevin Millwood, Brad Penny, Chris Young, Chad Qualls, Alfredo Aceves, Manny Delcarmen, and Mark Hendrickson.

Nolan Ryan Talks Lee, Webb, Beltre, Hamilton

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Rangers president Nolan Ryan appeared on Sportsradio 1310 The Ticket recently, and the Dallas Morning News transcribed key comments.

  • Ryan believes that teams these days are "overpaying some free agents that probably shouldn’t be getting paid what they are."  He has a three to four-year comfort level on free agent contracts, which of course the Rangers exceeded in their Cliff Lee offer.  Noted Ryan, "And the thing is that Cliff could have gotten even more money than that if he'd been willing to go to another ballclub, which wouldn’t have been that competitive."
  • The Rangers "are probably getting really close" on a Brandon Webb deal, in Ryan's words.  Webb's physical is expected "early this week," tweeted Ken Rosenthal on Sunday.
  • Asked about significant remaining additions, Ryan pointed to available designated hitter candidates.  He even talked about how the Rangers could sign one DH and "then sign another one that might be good from the other side of the plate."
  • Ryan admitted interest in Adrian Beltre, but suggested his team's fit for the third baseman is less clear-cut than the Angels or Athletics.
  • Asked about acquiring a center fielder to allow Josh Hamilton to shift to left, Ryan instead pointed to internal center field candidates Julio Borbon and Engel Beltre.
  • Ryan gave a general reply when asked how the Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth contracts will affect Hamilton.  Ryan said that huge contracts have an impact on the entire game, and demonstrate the importance of developing from within.  Hamilton is entering his second arbitration year; he's under team control through 2012.  The Rangers have decent raises due for 2011 with Nelson Cruz and C.J. Wilson also among their arbitration eligible players.    

Unfinished Business: NL West

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We've covered the NL East and Central.  Now it's time to examine the remaining unfinished business for NL West clubs. 

Team Facebook Pages

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MLB Trade Rumors has team Facebook pages!  We have a general Facebook page, of course, but now we have 30 separate pages for those who are only looking to receive and comment on rumors related to their favorite club.  Click your team below, hit the Like button to sign up, and enjoy!

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

The Type A Free Agents Who Would Cost Picks

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Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Adrian Beltre, and Carl Pavano are the remaining free agents for whom teams will have to surrender draft picks. Like Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth, Scott Downs and Cliff Lee, Balfour, Soriano, Beltre and Pavano turned down offers of arbitration after being ranked as Type A free agents. This means their new teams will each have to surrender a high draft choice in 2011.

Those choices could come in the first round, the second round, or even later. Since the Tigers, Red Sox, White Sox, Nationals, Angels and Philllies have already surrendered their top picks, they would only have to surrender a second or third rounder to sign Balfour, Soriano, Beltre or Pavano. The 15 teams that finished the 2010 season in the lower half of the standings have protected first round picks, so the Rays, Red Sox and Twins will not receive a first round selection if a team like the Mariners or Royals signs their player.

At this point, only 11 teams could lose their first round pick. The Rockies, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Padres, Rangers, Reds, Braves, Giants, Twins, Yankees and Rays are the last remaining clubs that could lose 2011 first rounders. The Twins and Rays will not lose their picks if they re-sign their own players, however.

Outfield Options For The Braves

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Jason Heyward, Nate McLouth and Eric Hinske and Martin Prado are candidates to pick up regular at bats in the Braves' outfield, but Atlanta could look to add another outfielder who can play center field. In fact, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes says it's the Braves' biggest need. It seems likely that the team would lean toward acquiring someone who can hit lefties, since Heyward, McLouth and Hinske all bat from the left side and Prado would probably play third if Chipper Jones can't play. Here are some internal candidates:

  • Joe Mather, a right handed hitter who can play center field, has actually hit better against right-handers (.247/.298/.485) than left-handers (.219/.276/.344) in his big league career. The Braves claimed the 28-year-old in November after eyeing him for a while, so presumably Atlanta thinks he could help the big league team.
  • Like Heyward, Jordan Schafer arrived in the big leagues to substantial fanfare and homered in his first major league at bat. However, he didn't produce much for the Braves in 2009 and struggled in the minors last year. He bats left handed, so he's not a natural complement to the other Braves outfielders.
  • Matt Young, 28, hit .300/.380/.407 at Triple-A last year with 39 stolen bases and more walks (57) than strikeouts (53). He plays a variety of positions, but also bats from the left side. (Young reminds me of the Pirates' recent acquisition, Corey Wimberly. Both are speedy utility types who could crack major league rosters this year. They're just a year apart in age and both are listed as 5'8".)
  • Beau Torbert, an outfielder who bats from the right side, signed with the Braves after being named Baseball America’s 2010 Independent Player of the Year and American Association Player of the Year.

And here are some free agents who could be solutions for the Braves:

  • Scott Hairston hits lefties well (.278/.331/.498 career line) and has extensive experience as a center fielder. The 30-year-old seems like a good fit for the Braves.
  • Willie Bloomquist brings versatility and a career .272/.334/.366 line against lefties. It seems likely that Atlanta could find a better fit.
  • Gary Matthews Jr. has a .248/.318/.423 line against lefties in his career. It's not a particularly impressive line, and Matthews has struggled consistently since 2007, so the 36-year-old is probably not be the Braves' best option.
  • Andruw Jones, who is still just 33, has hit southpaws well in his career (.261/.361/.501 line). He hit eight homers against them in 2010, posting a .931 OPS. Would the Braves and Jones be interested in a reunion? Maybe not, but there's a possible fit here. Since leaving Atlanta after the 2007 season, Jones hasn't played much center field, but he has continued to play slightly above average defense overall, according to UZR/150.
  • Lastings Milledge has a .289/.363/.435 line against lefties in his five-year career.
  • Reed Johnson can play center field and has a .312/.373/.463 line against lefties in his career. He has been paired up with Hinske before, when they were with the Blue Jays.

Let's not forget about these trade candidates:

  • Mike Cameron, Aaron Rowand and Ryan Spilborghs could all potentially be available and all three hit lefties well and can play center field. Cameron and Rowand, of course, have substantial salaries, so the Red Sox and Giants would have to be willing to eat lots of money for a deal to occur.

Finding a fourth outfielder may be one of GM Frank Wren's major challenges between now and Spring Training, but he has nearly two months to choose between a number of legitimate choices. Though Atlanta's internal options don't seem like natural complements to Hinske, McLouth and Heyward, free agents like Scott Hairston and longtime Brave Andruw Jones could fit the team's needs without breaking its budget.

Brewers Break Off Talks With Capuano

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Brewers GM Doug Melvin says the team agreed to stop negotiations with Chris Capuano, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Now that the Brewers have added Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to a rotation that already included Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson, they don't have room for Capuano.

The Brewers had made Capuano an offer at the beginning of the offseason and it was on the table earlier this month, but the sides have now decided to move on. Melvin says Capuano wants to be a starter, so the Brewers don't have room for him. However, the GM says he likes the left-hander a lot and has heard other teams have interest. 

Capuano, 32, came back from his second Tommy John surgery in 2010 after missing the 2008-09 seasons. He posted a 3.95 ERA with 7.4 K/9 and 2/9 BB/9 in 66 innings as a swingman for the Brewers last year. His best seasons came in 2005-06, when he averaged 220 innings per season and posted ERAs near 4.00 with 7.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9.

It wouldn't be surprising to see the Orioles, Indians, Royals, Tigers, Pirates, Cardinals, Nationals or Mets show interest in Capuano. That's a speculative list that depends on teams' assessments of the lefty's health. Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner hears that the Mariners have interest.

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