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Agents Predict Darvish’s Posting Fee, Contract

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As of a few days ago, Nippon-Ham Fighters ace Yu Darvish was undecided about asking his team to post him as a means of moving to MLB for the 2012 season.  The 25-year-old righty posted a 1.44 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 0.19 HR/9 in 232 innings this year, and there will be a bidding frenzy if the Fighters post him.

In the posting system, MLB teams have until a certain date to submit bids for the exclusive rights to negotiate with the player.  MLB GMs have the difficult task of choosing a bid that will be the highest but won't be significantly higher than the second-best bid.  After the posting fee, the team must then sign the player to a contract.  The player's only leverage is to return to Japan, in which case the posting fee is returned to the MLB team and the process is over for the year.

Five years ago, the Red Sox won the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka for $51,111,111.  They then negotiated a six-year, $52MM contract with Scott Boras, bringing the total commitment to $103,111,111.  As we've seen with Boras' draft pick negotiations, he uses what little leverage he has to maximum advantage.  There was a point in the Dice-K talks where an agreement with the Red Sox did not seem likely.  Last year, the Athletics won the right to negotiate with Hisashi Iwakuma for $19.1MM, but the Rakuten Golden Eagles had to return the posting fee when the A's were unable to reach an agreement with agent Don Nomura.  Darvish is represented by Nomura and Arn Tellem of Wasserman Media Group.

The Fighters have a lot to gain financially by posting Darvish now.  Sure, they could wait until after the '12 or '13 seasons, but Darvish is healthy and at the top of his game right now.  Agents I spoke to were divided on whether Matsuzaka's posting fee is relevant information in trying to predict what Darvish would require.  Misinformation abounds from the Dice-K posting period, but most reports suggested $20-30MM bids until the Red Sox came in over $51MM.  Only the Seibu Lions know for sure what the second-highest bid was, but in hindsight Boston might have been able to win the rights at $35MM.  

Last week, I polled five agents and one team executive about Darvish's potential posting fee and contract.  Guesses on the posting fee ranged from $30-55MM, with the team executive making the highest prediction.  The average of the six guesses was $45MM.  As for the contract, most people predicted a five or six-year deal in the $72-75MM range.  One agent wondered if the winning team will "try to force some options down his throat," especially if it's the Blue Jays.

The bottom line: everyone I talked to expects a minimum of a $100MM commitment to acquire Darvish if he's posted this year.  It's possible we'll see as many as six $100MM commitments this offseason, not including extensions.

Hitters’ Arbitration Salaries

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Yesterday, I discussed the model that I developed for MLBTR to predict arbitration salaries. The model uses similar information to that which arbitration panels use to determine salaries, and generates an estimate for players that is very close to the actual salary the players earn. Today, I’ll talk a little bit about the salaries of hitters.

One of the most important determinants of a hitter's salary is playing time. For position players, this comes in the form of plate appearances. While it shouldn't be surprising that back-ups make less than regulars, position players who make it onto the field every day get paid more. For example, Hunter Pence got a $3.4MM raise last year for hitting .282 with 25 HR and 91 RBI, but with 658 PA. Adam LaRoche hit .270 with 25 HR and 85 RBI in 2009, but only got a $2.15MM raise for his 554 PA. This year, we predict Nelson Cruz only managing a $2.1MM raise despite 29 HR and 87 RBI, due to his 513 PA, while we have Hunter Pence getting a $4.2MM raise with 22 HR and 97 RBI, in part due to his excellent 658 PA. Getting onto the field matters to panels, both because you can accumulate bigger counting stat totals and because playing time is just important. Take Pablo Sandoval as another example. He has a career .307 batting average coming into his first year of arbitration, and has averaged over 20 HR per season. Our model projects him for just $3.2MM due to his 466 PA this season. Give him the same career rates of AVG, HR, RBI, and SB but with 650 PA in 2011, and he would get about $4.7MM.

Arbitration isn't fair. The one skill that really gets you paid is power—HR and RBI are far more important than other statistics. Knocking in runs matters, yet scoring them is not too important at all. In fact, once you factor in the AVG and SB that hitters do to put themselves in position to score, the actual runs scored doesn’t seem to matter much at all to arbitration panels. Even AVG and SB, however, pale in importance to almighty HR and RBI. Mike Morse had 95 RBI in the Nationals’ lineup this year, and combined with his .303 AVG and 31 HR, we have him coming in with a solid $3.9MM salary. Baseball-Reference.com estimated in August that Morse would have 50% more RBI if given the same RBI opportunities as Ryan Howard. What would Morse earn with 50% more RBI? Try $4.6MM. That’s $700K the Nationals will save on him simply by putting different guys in front of him in the lineup than the Phillies put in front of Howard.

Position does not seem to matter much either—while catchers certainly get paid a premium for their hard work behind the plate, middle infielders get paid about as well as corner infielders and outfielders. Arbitration, apparently, was built to put smiles on the faces of Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, who accumulate massive HR/RBI totals in potent lineups, but play easy positions. Quietly skilled players who get on base in front of them and play harder positions get paid far less for their contributions. Shortstop Elvis Andrus, for example, comes in at $2.9MM in our projections. Sabermetricians would estimate that his WAR would be about 20% lower if he produced similarly but played 1B instead of SS. However, his arbitration salary would only be about 2% lower.

You can estimate a player's salary to a certain extent using more accurate estimates of value like WAR, but a more sophisticated model that utilizes the same flawed information that arbitration panels use can pick up on these kinds of inefficiencies. Tomorrow, we’ll discuss how panels decide what to pay pitchers.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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The Yankees' offseason is all about their search for starting pitching, though they'll look to add bench help and a second left-handed reliever as well.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • C.C. Sabathia, SP: can opt out of four years and $92MM remaining on current deal (Type A) 
  • Nick Swisher, OF: $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout (Type A) 
  • Robinson Cano, 2B: $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout (Type A) 
  • Rafael Soriano, RP: $11MM player option or a $1.5MM buyout (Type A)

Free Agents

The success of the Yankees' offseason hinges on Brian Cashman's ability to build a strong rotation. Low-risk signings such as Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon helped the Yankees reach the postseason again in 2011, but Cashman will pursue bigger names this offseason. His starting point? A 97-win team that was among the best in baseball at scoring and preventing runs.

Before the offseason starts in earnest, Cashman himself must sign a new contract. Once the sides sign the deal — it could happen within the week — Cashman will continue addressing the Yankees' needs.

C.C. Sabathia will be a top target for the Yankees and it makes sense for them to pursue free agents C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish along with the best starters on the trade market. The Yankees are rarely outbid for a player they truly want, so their chances of retaining Sabathia seem good (Sabathia's former teammate, Cliff Lee, is the exception to prove the rule).

Retaining Sabathia will require an extended commitment in terms of years and dollars and the Yankees have some concerns about the left-hander's weight, but his numbers are tremendous. He has averaged more than 230 innings since joining the Bronx Bombers three seasons ago, with a 3.18 ERA, 8.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in that stretch. FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement suggests Sabathia has been baseball's fourth-best pitcher since signing his current contract. He's going to get paid and if the Yankees want him, they must be prepared to spend, even if they're wary of having too many aging stars on the team a few years from now.

Darvish is an intriguing possibility because the Yankees need starting pitching and they have the resources to outbid the 29 other clubs. The last time the Yankees invested in a Japanese pitcher it didn't work out, but Kei Igawa's failure should push the Yankees to better understand the transition across the Pacific, not to shy away from Japanese pitchers with significantly greater upside than Igawa. If the Yankees are still negotiating with Sabathia when bids for Darvish are due, they'll have to place their bid at a time of great uncertainty.

Wilson, who posted a 2.94 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 223 1/3 regular season innings for the Rangers before struggling in the playoffs, remains an appealing free agent option. He will cost a top draft pick and may not be a proven ace at the level of Sabathia and Lee, but Wilson stands out as one of the top options available. Edwin Jackson and Hiroki Kuroda are among the free agent alternatives to Wilson, but Jackson has been inconsistent and Kuroda appears to prefer Los Angeles to other possible destinations.

Presently, the Yankees' rotation consists of Ivan Nova and A.J. Burnett. They may also count on Phil Hughes, but he will need to stay healthy and return to his 2010 form, manager Joe Girardi said. Otherwise, they'll need multiple starters this offseason, assuming they're not ready to turn starting roles over to Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos just yet. They could bring Garcia back to fill out the rotation, but another deal for Colon seems unlikely after he faded in the second half. Garcia, the Yankees' lone ranked free agent, could obtain an offer of arbitration if the Yankees are prepared to offer him a roster spot in 2012. Even if the Yankees aren't interested in bringing Garcia back, they could set up a handshake agreement and obtain the extra pick.

The Yankees could pursue John Danks, Ricky Nolasco, Wandy Rodriguez and others if they become available on the trade market. In the unlikely event that Seattle takes offers for Felix Hernandez, the Yankees will call.

If the Yankees turn to the trade market for pitching, Jesus Montero's name figures to come up constantly. Cashman has held onto Montero for this long and the powerful backstop is now ready for the Major Leagues, so a trade seems unlikely. However, the Yankees have a wealth of catching depth behind Russell Martin and could consider parting with Austin Romine or Francisco Cervelli.

Longtime backstop Jorge Posada probably won't return after 22 years and five World Series titles with the Yankees organization. Montero will collect some of Posada's plate appearances at designated hitter and Girardi will rotate established players such as Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter into the DH role when they need rest. Red Sox fans probably don't have to lose too much sleep over the possibility of David Ortiz coming back to haunt them in pinstripes.

The rest of the Yankees' lineup is essentially set for 2012, assuming they exercise Nick Swisher's option. There's no question that Robinson Cano's option will be exercised. The Yankees broke their own rules to extend Cano four offseasons ago, so they could consider another extension with the Scott Boras client. Curtis Granderson, who is also under team control through 2013, would be an extension candidate on most teams, but the Yankees will likely abide by team policy and wait until he hits the open market to start negotiating.

The rest of Cashman's offseason will consist of finding a second left-hander for the bullpen and finalizing the bench. Andruw Jones could return as a fourth outfielder and right-handed bench bat. Eric Chavez also appears to be a fit for a bench job, if he decides against retirement.

The Yankees won 97 games without a dominant rotation, so they know as well as any team that it can be done. But if Cashman's offseason goes according to plan, his top acquisitions won't be working under minor league contracts or battling for jobs in Spring Training. They'll be established pitchers who seem capable of leading the Yankees to their 17th playoff appearance in the last 18 years.

Quick Hits: Yankees, Pirates, Moyer, Oswalt

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C.J. Wilson wasn't at his best tonight in what may have been the final start of his Rangers career. He allowed five walks and four hits through 5 1/3 innings, but he allowed just two runs — enough to keep his team in the game and allow Texas to take a 3-2 series lead. Here are today's links…

Front Office Notes: Orioles, Cashman, Cubs, Padres

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Theo Epstein is officially the Cubs' president of baseball operations and the Red Sox have announced that Ben Cherington will be Boston's next GM, but there's still lots of front office turnover on the horizon. Here are the latest details from around MLB:

  • De Jon Watson's interview for the Orioles' GM job will take place on Wednesday, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (on Twitter). I spoke to Watson, the Dodgers' assistant GM, last month. He's up against Jerry Dipoto of the Diamondbacks and Tony LaCava of the Blue Jays.
  • Chase Headley and Heath Bell told Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune that they expect a smooth transition from Jed Hoyer to Josh Byrnes when Hoyer leaves the Padres to become the Cubs' new GM.
  • Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune explains that Cubs president Crane Kenney will move exclusively to the business side now that Epstein is the club's president of baseball operations. Kenney is a polarizing figure in Chicago and the role he played in obtaining Epstein is unclear, according to Sullivan.
  • Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times says letting assistant GM Randy Bush go would be a mistake for the Cubs.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman met with Hal Steinbrenner in New York today and Joel Sherman of the New York Post says the sides expect to be able to complete a new deal for Cashman with relative ease (Twitter link).

Minor Moves: Arias, Valdez, Cedeno

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The Astros signed right-handers Alberto Arias and Jose Valdez and left-hander Xavier Cedeno to minor league deals, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. The Astros had outrighted the players off of their 40-man roster earlier in October.

Arias would have been arbitration eligible, but he spent the 2011 on the season on the disabled list after undergoing shoulder surgery in March. The 27-year-old has a 3.74 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 74 2/3 career innings and hasn't pitched since 2009.

Valdez appeared in 12 games for the Astros in 2011, striking out 15 in 14 innings. He also posted a 5.47 ERA with 12.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 24 2/3 minor league innings. Cedeno made his MLB debut last month, pitching in three games as a September callup. The 25-year-old spent most of the 2011 season in the upper minors, where he posted a 4.38 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 137 2/3 innings.

Losing Your Best Ever At A Position

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Every year at about this time, teams all over baseball prepare for free agency with the understanding that they could lose some of their players. But something feels different this year: the choices seem to be more seismic for the teams.

When I took a closer look at the free agent list, something jumped out at me. Jimmy Rollins. Albert Pujols. Jose Reyes. All of these players had played with only one team. And more to the point: each of them represents the best their teams have ever had at their respective positions.

Take Rollins, for example. Since making his debut in 2000, Rollins has accumulated 34 wins above replacement as the Philadelphia shortstop. That's twice what anyone else has put up for the Phillies, with Larry Bowa's 17.1 from 1970-1981 and Granny Hammer's 16.1 from 1944-1959 the distant second and third place showings. Dave Bancroft posted a 13.5 WAR over just 681 games, a fraction of Rollins' 1636, but that happened way back in 1915-1920. Many fans have forgotten about Bancroft by now, or else lost their 'Bankcroft' memories in the crash of 1929.

So while it is easy to understand Philadelphia's reluctance to give the soon-to-be 33-year-old Rollins the five years he seeks on his new contract, Phillies fans might have an inflated opinion of Rollins' work, with a franchise whose eighth-most valuable shortstop ever is Dickie Thon (3.9 WAR), and whose tenth-best is Luis Aguayo (3.2 WAR).

The man ultimately making the decision? The son of Ruben Amaro Sr., who sits eleventh on the Phillies' list of top shortstops.

The problem is similar in New York, where Jose Reyes and his 29.1 career WAR loom even larger over the shortstops in New York Mets history. Only Bud Harrelson's 14.8 WAR reaches double figures among non-Reyes Met shortstops, and Harrelson's final season with New York — 1977 — came six years before Reyes was born. Third place belongs to Kevin Elster, with a career WAR of just 4.6. Reyes' 2011 alone was worth 5.8 WAR, meaning his 2011 was more valuable than the entire shortstop careers of all but two Mets — and Reyes himself is one of the two.

Albert Pujols casts a similar shadow over all other first basemen in St. Louis Cardinals history. He has a career WAR of 89, all with the Cardinals. Among St. Louis first basemen, Hall of Famer Johnny Mize is second, with a distant 37.8. In Mize's defense, he was traded to the Giants four days after the bombing of Pearl Harbor, and still put up a career WAR of 70.2 despite missing three full seasons serving in World War II.

Keith Hernandez checks in at 35.1 WAR as a Cardinal, good for third place. Jim Bottomley, another Hall of Famer, is fourth at 32.9. And even icons like Mark McGwire (eighth, 19.8 WAR) and Jack Clark (ninth, 11.4 WAR) don't approach Pujols. Is it any surprise that Cardinals fans can't imagine life without him?

By contrast, Milwaukee fans love Prince Fielder -– but they seemed to have made their peace with Fielder's likely departure. Could Cecil Cooper be responsible? Cooper posted a 29.3 WAR over 11 seasons from 1977-1987, besting Fielder's 20.8 WAR over seven seasons from 2005-2011. Perhaps to Milwaukee fans, finding a slugging first baseman doesn't seem like such an impossible task.

Cardinals Links: Pujols, La Russa, Franklin

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While we wait to see if the Cardinals can retake the series lead over the Rangers in the Fall Classic, let's round up some notes from St. Louis (all links go to Twitter)…

  • "Clearly we still think we have a lot of core players," said GM John Mozeliak to a group of reporters (including Scott Miller of CBSSports.com) when asked about the possibility of losing Albert Pujols to free agency. He added that the team's pipeline of young players is strong.
  • Mozeliak told Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch and others that he's hoping to get an answer from manager Tony La Russa about his future with the team at some point soon. La Russa's contract is up after the season.
  • Former closer Ryan Franklin was hanging around the team today, and Joe Strauss of St. Louis Post-Dispatch says it sounds like he's done playing. Franklin expressed a desire to play beyond 2011, but that was before he posted an 8.46 ERA with 5.5 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 27 2/3 innings.

Angels Would Make Friedman Team President

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The Angels are prepared to offer Andrew Friedman a position as club president, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times. Despite their strong interest, the Angels don’t appear to have much of a chance of obtaining him from the Rays, according to DiGiovanna. The Angels, who met with Friedman last week, would hire a second executive to be the team’s general manager if the 34-year-old joins their baseball operations department.

The Angels have interviewed Jerry Dipoto of the Diamondbacks, Damon Oppenheimer and Billy Eppler of the Yankees, Rick Hahn of the White Sox and former GM Omar Minaya for the position. Kim Ng of MLB will interview this week and the Angels hope to interview Thad Levine of the Rangers after the World Series ends, according to DiGiovanna. Former GM Dan Evans also intrigues owner Arte Moreno and team president John Carpino.

The Angels asked for permission to interview Al Avila of the Tigers and Dan Jennings of the Marlins, but were denied. Los Angeles' new GM will have the authority to hire a new assistant GM, player personnel director and farm director, according to DiGiovanna.

The Angels are in direct competition with the Orioles, who interviewed Dipoto for their GM vacancy. For a complete look at the moves Friedman has made in Tampa Bay, check out MLBTR's Transaction Tracker.

Red Sox Managerial Links: Farrell, Blue Jays

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The Red Sox announced that they will introduce Ben Cherington as their new GM tomorrow. Now that the Red Sox have resolved the uncertainty in their front office, it's time to find a new manager. Here are the latest links on the subject:

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that Blue Jays manager John Farrell would be desired in Boston, under Cherington, and in Chicago, under former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein (Twitter links). Dale Sveum and Mike Maddux are two candidates who may appeal to Cherington and Epstein, according to Sherman.
  • Farrell dismissed speculation about a possible return to Boston, where he was the pitching coach until he left for Toronto. "I am focused right now on preparing for what is best for the Blue Jays in 2012," he told Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link).
  • Farrell told Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star that the Red Sox haven't asked the Blue Jays for permission to talk to him. Griffin says the rumors are "a slap in the face for Jays fans" and that it would be unseemly for Farrell to return to Boston after one year. However, the Red Sox would get permission to talk with Farrell if they want it, according to Griffin.
  • Rob Bradford of WEEI.com says Farrell is the right manager for the Red Sox, since they need to rebuild their clubhouse for 2012. Bradford suggests the Blue Jays would likely require substantial compensation from Boston for Farrell and explains that a return to the Red Sox seems unlikely.

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