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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers' ownership battle may be coming to a close, but Ned Colletti must endure uncertainty for one more offseason as he tries to improve the team's offense and sign a veteran starter.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

Dodgers fans hope the end is in sight for the battle over ownership of their team.  The bankruptcy hearings begin on Halloween, as current Dodgers owner Frank McCourt seeks the ability to auction the team's television rights while Fox and MLB seek termination of McCourt's ownership.  Josh Fisher of Dodger Divorce said selling the TV rights is McCourt's only path to survival as the team's owner.  The hearings will certainly keep Fisher and the L.A. Times' Bill Shaikin busy, but there are still crucial player personnel decisions to make for the Dodgers this offseason.

Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said he has a basic idea of the team's budget.  In September, he said his aim is improving the offense in "the most dramatic way," implying Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder could be targets.  I just can't see the ownership situation resolved quickly enough for that to happen, though.  Even if MLB does force the sale of the Dodgers, it'd take months to get new ownership approved.  In the interim, it seems unrealistic for MLB to approve adding a massive amount of debt.

It'll be costly just for Colletti to resolve the Dodgers' internal business.  Out of 209 arbitration eligible players, Kemp's settlement projects as the second-highest salary, Ethier's the fifth-highest, and Kershaw's the ninth-highest.  Unless their salaries are reduced through multiyear deals, the trio could cost $35MM next year.  If payroll is cautiously trimmed to say, $100MM for 2012, the Dodgers will have less than $20MM to work with to fill all kinds of holes.

Extensions for potential award winners Kershaw and Kemp should be Colletti's primary focus.  We've seen top pitchers extended for about $30MM, but Kershaw might need $35MM just for his three arbitration years, and that might be a discount over going year-to-year.  I think we'd be entering the $100MM range for a six year deal, which is incredible given that three of those would be arbitration years.  Kemp's 2011 season could be under $15MM in a multiyear deal, but each season thereafter should cost at least $20MM.  There's no harm in Colletti laying groundwork now for either player, but ideally a prospective new owner would have final say in March.  Kemp does not want to negotiate once his potential contract year begins.    

A non-tender decision is due on Loney on December 12th, and one more season at around $6.5MM is the right move for the Dodgers.  If they somehow later sign Pujols or Fielder, they could probably move Loney's contract before the season begins.  Uribe is penciled in at third base and Dee Gordon at shortstop, leaving an opening at second.  An offensive-minded player like Kelly Johnson could be a good fit over internal options Justin Sellers and Ivan DeJesus.  Jerry Sands merits an extended look in left field, while Tim Federowicz and A.J. Ellis will probably sit behind the dish.  Gwynn and Rivera could return as bench players.

The Dodgers' rotation could be a strength again, especially if Kuroda is re-signed.  It'd be difficult to replace Kuroda without overpaying someone else on a multiyear deal, though Colletti could look to other starters coming over from Japan.  Nathan Eovaldi would be the fifth starter.  Colletti likes his bullpen, but he'll look to add a veteran reliever.  

Kelly Johnson alone wouldn't fix the Dodgers' offense, though decent seasons from Ethier, Uribe, and Sands would help.  Hopefully, the Dodgers' ownership situation becomes resolved by July.  If the team is in contention at that point, Colletti can explore the trade market.  The Dodgers' 2011-12 offseason will be overshadowed by the Frank McCourt drama, perhaps for the last time.

Ben Cherington Press Conference Quotes

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The Red Sox introduced Ben Cherington as their executive VP and general manager this afternoon. Cherington says the Red Sox will have a very good team in 2012 and discussed Boston's managerial search and other offseason plans. He also announced that John Lackey will undergo Tommy John surgery. Here are the details:

  • Cherington wants a new manager with a strong voice who cares about players and can collaborate with the front office. He says the team will start interviewing candidates soon. The Red Sox have several candidates in mind for first round interviews, but they haven't asked permission to interview any of them yet. Previous managerial experience would be a plus, but it's not necessary.
  • Boston's success in terms of free agent signings has "not [been] good enough," according to Cherington.
  • Despite Boston's disappointing 2011 season, Cherington says the Red Sox have enough on and off of the field to succeed. "What I'm left with is a conviction that the Red Sox will be the best organization in baseball going forward," he said. 
  • The Red Sox would like to have David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon back, according to Cherington. They have had some initial dialogue with each player and they expect to continue discussions.
  • The Red Sox will look to build pitching depth and could go for buy-low acquisitions.
  • Cherington believes Marco Scutaro would be "very coveted" this offseason if he got onto the market. The Red Sox have a $6MM option for Scutaro that they'll likely pick up this offseason ($3MM player option, $1.5MM buyout).
  • Cherington says he pushed hard to sign Carl Crawford and believes in him.
  • The new GM discussed the importance of having top talent evaluators and vowed that the Red Sox will employ some of the top scouts in the game.
  • Boston's farm system is "stronger and deeper than ever" at Double-A and below, Cherington said.
  • Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino says the Red Sox hired a team player who is hungry for more success. "There is no one more prepared to take on the role of General Manager of the Red Sox than Ben,” he said.  “He will hit the ground running, in full stride, and no one will outwork him.”
  • "I've always believed in hybrid baseball executives and Ben is a hybrid baseball executive," Lucchino said.
  • The Red Sox will soon announce promotions within their front office. Epstein has not asked Cherington about taking front office members with him to Chicago.
  • Cherington is the first person from our list of GM Candidates to land a GM job. Here's my piece on Cherington from August 2011.
  • Former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein discussed the Cubs and Red Sox at his introductory press conference in Chicago earlier today.

Minor Moves: Johnson, Maysonet

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Here are today's minor moves…

  • Padres catcher Rob Johnson has cleared outright waivers and elected free agency, according to MLB.com's Corey Brock (on Twitter). Johnson, 28, posted a .190/.259/.285 line in 199 plate appearances as San Diego's backup catcher in 2011, preventing 23% of stolen base attempts. 
  • The Brewers announced that they re-signed infielder Edwin Maysonet to a minor league contract that includes an invitation to Spring Training. The 30-year-old posted a .290/.347/.386 line for the Brewers' Triple-A affiliate in 2011 and hasn't played in the Major Leagues since 2009.

Outrighted To Triple-A: Wilson, DiFelice

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Here are the latest outright assignments from around MLB…

  • The Brewers announced that they outrighted infielder Josh Wilson and right-hander Mark DiFelice to Triple-A. Wilson posted a .224/.258/.353 line for the D'Backs and Brewers in 2011. The 30-year-old played all four infield positions for Milwaukee and appeared in left field. DiFelice appeared in three games for the Brewers and spent most of the season at Triple-A, where he had a 2.17 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 29 innings.

A’s Release Wuertz, Claim Scribner, Hunter

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The A's announced that they released Michael Wuertz to create 40-man roster space for right-hander Evan Scribner and outfielder Cedric Hunter, who were claimed off of waivers from the Padres. The A's held a $3.25MM option for Wuertz in 2012 ($250K buyout) and in releasing him now, they're essentially declining the option early, as expected.

Wuertz, 32, posted a 6.68 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 7.0 BB/9 in 33 2/3 innings for the A's in 2011, just two seasons after emerging as one of the league's dominant setup men. He battled hamstring and thumb injuries this year and is now a free agent.

Scribner, 26, made his MLB debut with the Padres in 2011, posting a 7.07 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 14 innings. He spent most of the season at Triple-A Tucson, where he posted a 4.71 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 28 2/3 innings of relief. Most of Oakland's bullpen will return in 2012, so the A's won't be counting on Scribner.

Hunter, 23, spent most of the 2011 campaign at Triple-A after making San Diego's Opening Day roster. He posted a .255/.322/.358 line at Tucson, but didn't play after being placed on the disabled list with a strained right groin on July 17th.

John Lackey To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Red Sox righty John Lackey will undergo Tommy John surgery, new GM Ben Cherington announced today.  WEEI's Rob Bradford reported Lackey's visit to Dr. Lewis Yocum earlier today, noting that the surgery causes a sixth-year option to vest for Lackey at the league minimum.  This is a good thing for Boston – it reduces the average annual value of the contract from $16.5MM to $13.8MM, creating luxury tax savings.

Lackey had a disastrous 2011 season.  His 6.41 ERA was the sixth-highest in baseball history over the last sixty years, given a minimum of 160 innings.  He had a rough year with the media as well.

The Red Sox likely were not counting on Lackey for anything in 2012, but the surgery eliminates any chance of a bad contract swap.

Twins Decline Option On Joe Nathan

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The Twins announced today that they've declined their club option on reliever Joe Nathan.  The option was worth $12.5MM, but the team will pay a $2MM buyout.  GM Bill Smith said, "I spoke with Joe and his agent this morning, and expressed our interest in re-signing Joe.  We will remain in contact with them as we move forward into the free agent process."

Nathan signed a four-year contract extension for $47MM in March of 2008, and the total remains the record for a reliever.  Nathan, 36, had been dominant as the Twins' closer from 2004-09, racking up a 1.87 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, and 246 saves in 418 2/3 innings.  He had Tommy John surgery in March of 2010, returning this year to mixed results.  Further removed from the surgery, he'll be a popular free agent target on a one-year deal.

Free Agent And Trade Market For Second Basemen

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The Blue Jays, Tigers, Twins, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Dodgers may be in the market for second base help this offseason, and the market offers a good number of viable options.

Starting Second Basemen Available In Free Agency

As many as six free agent second basemen will likely be considered as starters: Kelly Johnson, Clint Barmes, Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill, Jamey Carroll, and Nick Punto.  If Johnson were coming off his 2010 season, he'd be a lock for a multiyear deal.  But given his struggles with Arizona this year, he might even prefer a one-year deal to rebuild value.  Hill could prefer the same.  Otherwise, Omar Infante's two-year, $8MM extension with the Marlins will be a target for most of these guys.  Having shown an ability to play shortstop everyday, Barmes may be looking for more.

Thinking Outside The Box

Aside from Barmes, shortstops like Rafael Furcal, Yuniesky Betancourt, Ronny Cedeno, Alex Gonzalez, and Marco Scutaro could be signed as second basemen.  Mark DeRosa and Carlos Guillen are other candidates.  Enough teams need shortstops that I don't expect Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins to consider second base.

Quality Backups

Willie Bloomquist, Jerry Hairston Jr., Aaron Miles, Ramon Santiago, and John McDonald should be able to find big league deals for utility jobs.

Non-Tender Candidates

Non-tender candidates abound.  Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, Chris Getz, and Adam Rosales are just a few middle infielders who may be cut loose.  Their tenuous tender situations make them trade candidates as well.

Other Trade Candidates

Jeff Keppinger is a prime trade candidate, if the Giants are confident in Freddy Sanchez.  The Rockies' Chris Nelson is another name to consider.  If Gordon Beckham doesn't show signs of improvement, he could become available.

Check out the full free agent list, as well as our articles on the markets at catcher and first base.

Coaching, Front Office News: Eiland, Blue Jays, Feinstein

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The latest on the coaching and managerial front:

  • The Royals announced the hiring of Dave Eiland as their new pitching coach.  Eiland served as the Yankees' pitching coach from 2008-10 and spent this year as a special assistant with the Rays.
  • The Blue Jays announced an amendment to their employee permission policy: they will not grant permission for lateral moves.  GM Alex Anthopoulos will be holding a press conference today, presumably on this topic.  The implication is that the Red Sox will not be allowed to interview John Farrell for their managerial position.  
  • Rays director of baseball operations Dan Feinstein has joined the Athletics as their director of pro scouting and baseball development, according to the team.  

Theo Epstein Press Conference Quotes

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We've heard a lot from new Cubs president Theo Epstein today, as the team held a press conference this morning.

  • "It truly feels great to be a Cub today," said Epstein at the introductory press conference.  He considers his new job "the ultimate challenge."
  • "Our goal will be to build the best scouting department in the game," explained Epstein.  He stressed "sustained success" and noted that the Cubs' 2011 draft marked a "clear philosophical change" in his eyes.  Epstein will also be able to grow the Cubs' baseball operations staff.
  • As a first step with the Cubs managerial situation, Epstein intends to meet with Mike Quade in person over the next week.  Epstein also intends to "take a creative look at the big league team."
  • A third party may ultimately be required to determine the compensation Boston receives, but Epstein considers the teams' relations to be amicable.
  • Cubs owner Tom Ricketts said today in a welcome statement, "In his new role, Theo will be given the resources and opportunity to build a strong foundation and the winning culture that our organization and fans deserve."  At the process conference Ricketts added, "I simply cannot imagine a better person for this job than Theo Epstein."
  • The following bullet points are highlights from an op-ed piece Epstein wrote for the Boston Globe.  Epstein writes, "The reason I am leaving has nothing to do with power, pressure, money, or relationships. It has nothing to do with September, either."  Instead, he points to a Bill Walsh suggestion that coaches and executives should seek change after ten years with a team, to create a new challenge for the individual and a fresh perspective for the team.  Initially, the plan was for assistant GM Ben Cherington to take over the Red Sox after the 2012 season, and those discussions with ownership began this summer while the team was thriving.
  • The combination of the Red Sox needing a new manager for the long-term and the challenge presented by the Cubs prompted Epstein to leave earlier than he initially planned.  Epstein has complete confidence in Cherington to address Boston's clubhouse issues.  Epstein admits, "Things did indeed happen in the clubhouse that do not have a place at the Red Sox or anywhere in sports. But the reports about team-wide apathy and indulgence are exaggerated."
  • Epstein feels that Cherington is more prepared for the GM job than Epstein was nine years ago, and the Red Sox "remain one of the preeminent organizations in baseball, with an extremely bright future."

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