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Astros Outright Arias, Towles, Valdez

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The Astros announced that they outrighted catcher J.R. Towles and right-handers Alberto Arias and Jose Valdez to Triple-A Oklahoma City after the trio cleared waivers. The move clears space on Houston’s 40-man roster, which now includes 35 players. 

Arias and Valdez can both elect free agency instead of accepting the assignment, while Towles will automatically become a free agent after the World Series. 

Arias would have been arbitration eligible, but he spent the 2011 on the season on the disabled list after undergoing shoulder surgery in March. The 27-year-old has a 3.74 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 74 2/3 career innings and hasn't pitched since 2009. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently predicted that the Astros would cut him loose.

Towles, 27, was once a highly-regarded prospect, but he has struggled to produce at the plate in parts of five MLB seasons. He has a .187/.267/.315 line in 484 MLB plate appearances since 2007. Valdez appeared in 12 games for the Astros this year, striking out 15 in 14 innings. He also posted a 5.47 ERA with 12.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 24 2/3 minor league innings this year.

NL East Notes: Nationals, Phillies, Ozzie

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On this date in 1993, the Phillies defeated the Braves in the NLCS and advanced to the World Series, which they lost in six games to the Blue Jays. Here are today's NL East-related links…

  • Mark Zuckerman of Nats Insider examines the Nationals' roster and shows that it takes years for general managers to fully make their mark on a team. Mike Rizzo has acquired most of Washington's players, but previous regimes acquired many others.
  • Justin Verlander sees strong similarities between himself and Stephen Strasburg, though Strasburg has shied away from the comparison in the past. “He throws 100 with a hammer and a changeup,” Verlander told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. “There’s really nobody else. Comparison-wise, it’s him and I right now.”
  • MLBTR's Tim Dierkes discussed a number of Phillies, including Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson, Jimmy Rollins and Hunter Pence, with Nick Mandarano on a recent podcast.
  • Ozzie Guillen will earn $10MM, not $16MM, over the next four years with the Marlins, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (on Twitter).

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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Prepare for another offseason of short-term free agent deals from the Padres in their attempt to stop the bleeding on a perennially lousy offense.  The Friars also have more bullpen patchwork ahead than usual.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contractual Options

  • Aaron Harang, Type B SP: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
  • Brad Hawpe, unranked 1B: $6MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
  • Chad Qualls, unranked RP: $6MM club option with a $1.05MM buyout

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

Talk about a lack of commitments.  The Padres owe $11MM to their starting middle infield for 2012, and nothing beyond that.  GM Jed Hoyer has a clean slate and a payroll expected to be in the $53-55MM range, the team's highest since '08.  As I showed last week, Hoyer should have $20MM+ to work with in 2012 payroll flexibility.  At a September 29th press briefing, the GM was clear about his offseason goals.  He plans to add veteran leadership, rebuild the bullpen, cut down on strikeouts, improve the bench, and add a corner outfielder.

The 2011 Padres ranked third in ERA among NL relief squads.  However, they traded Mike Adams and Qualls and Bell are free agents.  Cory Luebke will stick in the rotation, following a midseason shift.  Those four pitchers accounted for 46% of the team's relief innings and a 2.65 ERA.  The Padres will probably be looking to make multiple Qualls-type signings, snapping up decent arms on one-year deals in the $3MM range.  The team will find plenty of willing applicants, as usual given their ballpark.  

Bell probably should have been traded too.  The closer doesn't appear interested in the team's reported proposal of two years at about $14MM and has announced his intention to deny them a chance at draft picks by accepting arbitration.  I wouldn't go much higher on a contract offer, so the best move now is to offer arbitration and see if Bell still prefers to stay in San Diego on a one-year deal.  I'm not sure that's really best for him — he's 34, he's never had a multiyear deal, and his strikeout rate took a big dip this year.  He'd probably have to endure another summer of trade rumors, too.  This offseason might be his best chance for multiyear security, and his agency could probably find a team willing to guarantee three years.  

Cutting down on strikeouts and adding a corner outfielder might have to be accomplished with one player, as the Padres' infield appears set.  Corner outfield free agents with high contact rates include Juan Pierre, Endy Chavez, and Coco Crisp.

This offseason might be a good time to shop Headley.  He's a useful player but light on power, and the Padres have third base candidates coming up in the farm system.  Power pays in arbitration, so Headley's affordability adds to his trade value.  It doesn't hurt that the free agent market offers almost nothing at his position, aside from Aramis Ramirez.  This offseason is also a good time to lock up center fielder Cameron Maybin, who was worth nearly five wins above replacement this year in a breakout season.

For the second season in a row, the Padres' rotation ERA ranked fourth in the National League.  Mat Latos, Stauffer, and Luebke make for a solid front three.  Harang or a veteran of his ilk should take another spot, perhaps with Richard and Moseley battling for the last.

The cosmetic changes discussed in this post probably won't make the Padres a contender.  They haven't ranked in the upper half of the National League in runs scored since they placed eighth in 2004, the year Petco Park opened.  With Anthony Rizzo, Jedd Gyorko, James Darnell, Rymer Liriano, and others, the team has young hitters on the way.  Several of them will need to produce at the Major League level for this team to return to prominence.

Manager/GM Notes: Epstein, Sandberg, Cashman

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The Cubs are on the brink of completing a deal with the GM Theo Epstein and the Red Sox. Here are the details and more managerial and GM notes from around MLB…

  • MLB.com's Carrie Muskat hears that chairman Tom Ricketts is handling compensation discussions for the Cubs. However, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that assistant GMs Ben Cherington and Randy Bush will do most of the negotiating with upper management signing off on the expected agreement.
  • John Dennis of WEEI hears that the Red Sox and Cubs won't start talks about compensation for Epstein until today (link via Rob Bradford of WEEI.com).
  • Epstein will earn $3MM or more on his new deal with the Cubs, but it still falls short of what Tigers president and GM Dave Dombrowski earns, according to Jon Heyman of SI.com (Twitter links). Heyman noted earlier this week that Dombrowski, one of baseball's longest-tenured GMs, earns about $5MM.
  • Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times hears that the Cubs expect a reconciliation with Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg this week. Epstein interviewed Sandberg for Boston's Triple-A managerial position last offseason, but Sandberg turned the job down to manage in the Phillies' system. Cubs manager Mike Quade is under contract through 2012.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post explains the challenges GMs face in Boston and New York. One MLB executive is amazed that Yankees GM Brian Cashman has continued to do his job under such intense pressure for more than a decade.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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As the Athletics await resolution on their stadium situation, they’ll look to restore outfield depth and improve their weak offense.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

Michael Wuertz, RP: $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout; no Elias Ranking

Free Agents

The Athletics are in limbo, waiting for MLB’s assessment of their stadium situation and confronting the possibility that Billy Beane could leave the Bay Area for another GM job. With so much uncertainty and the worst attendance figures in MLB, it’s difficult for Oakland to make long-term plans. Spending decisions are temporarily on hold for the A's. 

Stadium and relocation issues aside, the front office has its share of on-field questions. All three of Oakland’s starting outfielders hit free agency along with their primary designated hitter and a starting pitcher. It seems likely that the A’s will seek offense to rebound from this year’s 74-88 record and make a push for the postseason. But as C.J. Wilson reminded Beane & Co. this summer, attracting free agents of any kind to the Oakland Coliseum makes luring fans there seem easy.

If the A's decline Michael Wuertz's option and tender contracts to all nine of their arbitration eligible players, they'll have committed about $40.75MM to next year's payroll (minimum salary players not included). Oakland's payroll has been in the $58-67MM range since 2009, so it won't be surprising if they're working with approximately $20MM this offseason.

The offense is the most obvious place for Beane to spend. Oakland's lineup featured little pop besides Josh Willingham in 2011 and ranked 12th in the American League in runs scored (645). Willingham, Coco Crisp and David DeJesus will be among the most sought-after free agent outfielders of the offseason, so re-signing them won't be easy, though the A’s appear to have interest in bringing Willingham and Crisp back.

The A's can obtain two draft picks for Willingham, who would obtain a raise from $6MM if he accepted arbitration from Oakland. It's an acceptable risk for the A's given the possible picks, Willingham's free agent prospects and the limited downside of a one-year deal. An offer of arbitration for DeJesus, a bounce-back candidate in 2012, seems less likely.

Without the organizational stability to spend aggressively or the ability to attract big-name free agents, the A's may turn to the trade market, where Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Quentin, Angel Pagan and B.J. Upton could be available as alternatives to internal options such as Michael Taylor, Ryan Sweeney and Jai Miller. Oakland's pitching staff is a definite strength and it could be the currency Beane uses to acquire outfield help and address minor needs.

It appears likely that designated hitter Hideki Matsui will return on a one-year deal. Matsui generates revenue and won’t command more than a few million, but most teams look for more than 12 homers and a .696 OPS from their designated hitter. David Ortiz would provide more offense, but he’ll be significantly more expensive than Matsui.

Scott Sizemore’s impressive 2011 performance (.249/.345/.433 with 11 HR in 355 plate appearances) has earned him a shot at the everyday third base job. Joining him on the infield will be promising 24-year-old second baseman Jemile Weeks and shortstop Cliff Pennington. Daric Barton (recovering from a torn labrum in his right shoulder) and a collection of minimum salary players – Brandon Allen Chris Carter, Kila Ka'aihue and Adam Rosales – round out the infield. Even if the A's believe in Sizemore and their collection of first base candidates at the corner positions, they'll need to add bench depth after parting with multiple infielders last season. 

Few teams would be comfortable relying on such an inexperienced group of position players. Allen, Weeks, Pennington, Sizemore, Taylor, Sweeney and Miller have combined for fewer MLB plate appearances than Matsui (4953 vs. 4677), and he played in Japan until he was 29.

The A’s didn’t score much in 2011, but their run prevention was better than average (sixth in the AL), even though they only got three starts from Dallas Braden and 13 from Brett Anderson. Both left-handers could return in 2012: Braden, now recovering from shoulder surgery, is a possibility for the Opening Day rotation (assuming Oakland tenders him a contract) and Anderson could return from Tommy John surgery midseason. They’ll join Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy and Guillermo Moscoso in a deep rotation that could include Tyson Ross or Josh Outman, if necessary. 

Rich Harden could re-sign in Oakland and provide the club with additional insurance. At this point, they don’t appear to need it, but every pitching staff encounters injuries. Plus, it’s conceivable that the A’s would listen to offers for Gio Gonzalez, who will earn at least $3MM as a first-time arbitration eligible player. The 26-year-old is under team control through 2015 and would instantly become one of the most coveted pitchers of the offseason, if Beane made him available.

The bullpen will feature Craig Breslow, Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour and Andrew Bailey again. It seems unlikely that the A's would commit over $3MM to Wuertz after such a disappointing season, so they'll probably decline his option and rely on the likes of Joey Devine (sidelined with a rhomboid strain), Jerry Blevins and Fautino De Los Santos to fill out the 'pen. The group was adequate in 2011 and should be as good in 2012, with most of its members returning.

As much as anything, Oakland's offseason revolves around the possibility that they'll move to a new stadium or city. Yes, the A's will patch up their outfield and tinker with their pitching staff, and next year's team will be much better if the offense improves and the pitching holds up. But for the long-term health of the franchise to improve, the A's need resolution on the stadium issue.

David Ortiz Talks Yankees, Red Sox

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David Ortiz recently hinted that the offseason could get even more tumultuous for the Red Sox. The designated hitter, who will be eligible for free agency after the World Series, suggested to ESPN's Colleen Dominguez that he would fit into the Yankees’ culture.

"It's great from what I hear," he said. "It's a good situation to be involved in. Who doesn't want to be involved in a great situation where everything goes the right way?”

Ortiz says there's "too much drama" in Boston these days and acknowledged that he's thinking about moving on. “I don't know if I want to be part of this drama for next year."

Ortiz projects as a Type A free agent, which means teams will have to surrender a top pick to sign him if he turns down an offer of arbitration from the Red Sox. The 35-year-old completed his ninth season in Boston with 29 home runs and a .309/.398/.554 line.

The Yankees don't need a designated hitter this offseason. Alex Rodriguez and Jesus Montero could DH on a semi-regular basis and manager Joe Girardi could also use the spot to provide tired or banged up players with a partial day off.

Quick Hits: Sizemore, Carmona, Pujols, Wilson, Nova

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Wednesday night linkage..

  • The Indians plan to take their time in deciding whether to pick up the options on Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona, writes MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.  Sizemore, who underwent surgery on his right knee earlier this month, has a club option worth $9MM with a $500K buyout while Carmona's option is worth $7MM for next season.
  • The Cardinals are hopeful that the good feelings from this postseason might carry over into the Albert Pujols negotiations this winter, tweets Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated.
  • Even though the Marlins are expected to spend this offseason, Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel (via Twitter) doesn't like their chances of landing Pujols or C.J. Wilson.
  • If Yankees pitcher and former Rule 5 pick Ivan Nova can build off of an inspiring rookie season, he’ll be taking one of the rarest career paths in baseball history, writes Josh Goldman of Fangraphs.

Theo Epstein Signing With Cubs Reactions

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This morning we learned that Theo Epstein agreed on a five-year deal worth more than $15MM with the Cubs.  Here' s a look at some of the reactions and fallout from around baseball..

  • Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal outlines some Cubs prospects that the Red Sox could receive as compensation for Epstein.
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says that the Cubs' signing of Epstein means that the NL Central is about to get even stronger, write Matthew Leach, Joe Frisaro, and Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com.
  • Would Yankees GM Brian Cashman be interested in the new Red Sox GM vacancy?  It doesn't seem that way, writes Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com.  "I have a job," said Cashman when asked about the possibility of leaving for Boston.  Nothing official has been agreed upon yet, but Cashman is expected to sign a new deal with the Yankees in the near future.
  • Epstein's new average salary of $3MM is unlikely to affect Cashman's next deal with the Yankees, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Epstein's previous salary was roughly $2.5MM and Cashman will likely see a bump from his current $2.2MM average.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter) heard that the Red Sox wanted to keep Epstein, but the GM made it clear that he would be leaving when his contract expired after 2012 .  Epstein would have earned $3MM with a $4MM parachute payment at the year's end.  That prompted the club to approve his discussions with the Cubs.
  • Ben Cherington is expected to be the next GM of the Red Sox and Dan Duquette had nothing but kind things to say about the long-time exec, writes Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald.
  • In an interview on WEEI's "Mut & Merloni" show this morning, Peter Gammons said that he's "sickened" by the criticism he has heard of former Red Sox skipper Terry Francona, writes Justin Doubleday of WEEI.com.  As for the matter of compensation, Gammons says that he could see the Red Sox receiving someone like 23-year-old center fielder Brett Jackson.

Phillies’ Manuel In Favor Of Third Base Upgrade

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In two seasons with the Phillies, third baseman Placido Polanco has struggled to stay healthy and on the field.  Despite being named an All-Star for the second time in his career in 2011, manager Charlie Manuel says that he would be in favor of an upgrade at the position, writes MLB.com's Nate Mink.

"If we need to upgrade and we can, we should do it," the skipper said on Wednesday.

Polanco is guaranteed $6.25MM next season, but Mink writes that it shouldn't handcuff the Phillies from exploring other options at third base.  Manuel doesn't think that the Phillies need a power bat at the position, but durability will be a major focus for the club this offseason.

Polanco underwent surgery yesterday to repair two sports hernias, which could sideline him for the beginning of the 2012 season.  The 36-year-old played in 132 games in 2010 and just 122 this past year.

Ramirez Demands Multiyear Deal From Cubs

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The Cubs' most productive hitter has put the ball directly in new GM Theo Epstein's court. Three weeks after saying he'd probably played his last game in Chicago, Aramis Ramirez left open the possibility of a return in an interview with the Dominican newspaper El Caribe yesterday (link in Spanish). Nevertheless, the 33-year-old third baseman gave an ultiumatum that left no doubt of his willingness to test the open market.

"I'll head to free agency if they don't give me a contract of several years," Ramirez said. "I'm going to wait and see what the team does. Otherwise, I'm going to leave Chicago."

Despite a slow start in 2010, Ramirez finished the season leading the Cubs in OPS, on-base percentage, and most offensive counting statistics, and he was behind only Carlos Pena in HR and Starlin Castro in hits. Not known as a defensive force, Ramirez's UZR of -10.5 was toward the bottom of the National League, but he dominated nearly every offensive category among senior circuit third basemen and looks even better among those in the 2012 free agent class. Ramirez has previously expressed a desire to finish his career with the Cubs, and keeping him on-board looks like the first test facing Epstein's nascent front office.

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