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Ryan Zimmerman Talks Next Contract

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Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman opened up about his next contract, talking to beat writer Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post on Sunday.  Zimmerman, who has repeatedly stated his desire to remain with the Nationals beyond his current contract, expressed confidence that a new deal will get done.

Kilgore lays out the many factors sure to figure into the negotiations.  Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Braun will come up as comparables, which is cool since the three players were drafted so close together in 2005.  The new portion of Tulo's contract averages $19MM per year over six free agent years, while Braun received $21MM per year over five.  Braun received more per year than Tulowitzki partly because he was closer to free agency, so will Zimmerman receive more than Braun since he's just two seasons away?  Zimmerman told Kilgore he's going to need a contract longer than his current five-year pact, and that 29-year-old free agents get seven to ten years.  Noted Zimmerman, "You only get one shot to try to get a big deal; if you’re lucky enough to get one shot, that’s the time you have to get it."    

Kilgore touches on Zimmerman's injury history, a major factor.  Out of six full seasons in the bigs, Zimmerman has missed large chunks of two of them.  He had a shoulder injury in 2008, after which he signed his five-year, $45MM contract.  This year, he had surgery to repair a torn abdominal muscle.  The Nationals know better than anyone whether these two injuries were isolated occurrences.

Back in March, Zimmerman remarked that "if you have one year before free agency, you might as well play your year out and see what happens."  That feeling hasn't changed much, as he told Kilgore Sunday that while he wouldn't completely rule out an extension with one year left before free agency, when a player gets to that point in his career he wants to make teams compete against each other.  If the Nationals want to hammer out an extension with Zimmerman and his agent Brodie Van Wagenen of CAA Sports, they've probably got a year or less to do so, since he's signed through 2013.

Zimmmerman is thinking at least seven years, which would take him through the 2020 season and tie him with Braun and Tulo for the latest any player is currently under contract.  Kilgore tosses out an eight-year, $175MM figure if Zimmerman wants to exceed Jayson Werth by $1MM through 2017 and then continue for another four years at $22MM per.  Such a contract would be the sixth-largest in baseball history, and he'd be the only player signed through 2021.  Zimmerman doesn't think his injury this year affects his contract situation at all, and if Washington matched Kilgore's estimate it'd suggest they feel the same.

Randy Flores Opts Out Of Contract

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For the third time this year, lefty reliever Randy Flores has opted out of a minor league contract.  This time he opted out of his Brewers' contract after 11 innings, writes MLB.com's Adam McCalvy.  Flores had previously opted out of contracts with the Padres and Yankees.

Flores, 36, hasn't yet made it back to the Majors this year.  At Triple-A he has a 3.05 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9 in 59 innings.

Blue Jays Sign Osuna, Becerra

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The Blue Jays announced the signings of seven international free agents: Roberto Osuna, Wuilmer Becerra, Jesus Gonzalez, Manuel Cordova, Alberto Tirado, Jairo Labourt, and Yeyfry Del Rosario.

Osuna, the 16-year-old nephew of Antonio, tossed 19 2/3 innings in the Mexican League this year.  The Mexican righty was one of the top July 2nd pitching prospects this year, wrote Baseball America's Ben Badler.

Becerra is a "speedy shortstop who projects as an outfielder," wrote Badler.  The 17-year-old comes out of Venezuela.

The bonuses on these seven are not yet known, but the Jays signed Domincan Dawel Lugo for $1.3MM in July.  Based on BA's estimates, it's likely Osuna and Becerra received more.  The Blue Jays continue to be aggressive in the international market, having signed Adeiny Hechavarria, Adonis Cardona, and others last year.

Be sure to tell your Spanish-speaking friends about MLBTR's sister site, Rumores de Béisbol, where we have human translations of key MLBTR posts as well as the original Hits Latinos series.

Will C.J. Wilson Get $100 Million?

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Two years ago, Rangers lefty C.J. Wilson struck me as a quality reliever, but certainly not someone who could eventually score a $100MM contract.  Now, with free agency just months away, I'm wondering if that could be his ceiling on the open market.

Wilson

Wilson switched back to starting in 2010, and he exceeded expectations.  Though Wilson led the American League in walks, he also made 33 starts with a 3.35 ERA in the regular season.  Sure, his SIERA was 4.19, but the conversion was a success.  Had Wilson signed an extension after the 2010 season, giving up three free agent years for around $10-11MM apiece seemed appropriate.  The decision to wait paid off for Wilson, as he's taken his game to a new level in 2011.  The walks are down significantly, the strikeout rate is up, and he made the All-Star team.  Without Cliff Lee around, Wilson is the Rangers' undisputed ace.

Wilson's innings total predictably skyrocketed in 2010, but it didn't lead to any injuries.  Including the postseason, he made 37 starts that year for a total of 228 1/3 innings.  He averaged almost 17 pitches per inning in 2010 and about 6.2 innings per start.  This year he's been more efficient at 16.2 pitches per inning, and he's exceeding 6.6 innings per start.

Why do I think $100MM is possible?  Age is not a concern, as he turns 31 in November.  He's become a horse, but his overall mileage is low because of the time spent as a reliever.  He's succeeded in a tough home park and in the American League.  The advanced numbers are strong and he provides the fairly rare combination of strikeouts and groundballs.  Here's a look at the recent big pitching contracts signed on the open market:

  • Cliff Lee: five years, $120MM ($24MM per year).  32 years old at time of signing.
  • John Lackey: five years, $82.5MM ($16.5MM per year).  31 years old.
  • C.C. Sabathia: seven years, $161MM, plus opt-out clause ($23MM per year).  28 years old.
  • A.J. Burnett: five years, $82.5MM ($16.5MM per year).  32 years old shortly after signing.

It's easy to toss Wilson into the Lackey/Burnett bracket and expect a similar contract.  But Lackey had missed a month in each of his previous seasons and had totaled 373 innings.  Burnett was coming off a career-best 221 1/3 innings, but had pitched only 301 1/3 over the previous two seasons.  Meanwhile Wilson is projecting for perhaps 225 innings this year, for a total exceeding 450 over 2010-11.  He doesn't come with the injury concern Lackey and Burnett did.

Also consider that Burnett signed after the '08 season and Lackey after '09, so even if Wilson were comparable to them he'd deserve more based on inflation.  I think there's an easy case for $90MM over five years, so it's not crazy to think one team would add a sixth year or take him to the $20MM per year range.  This only applies if we're talking about a free agent bidding war – if the Rangers re-sign him prior to open season, it'll be for less.  It should be noted that the Yankees and Red Sox figured prominently into all four free agent contracts mentioned above, so their involvement with Wilson will be a huge factor.

We also have to look at what the free agent and trade markets will offer in terms of competition.  Sabathia could again be the free agent prize if he opts out, but he'll require a commitment well beyond Wilson that only a few teams could handle.  Sabathia could re-sign with the Yankees early on, which might take them out of the Wilson bidding but also leave him as the best available starter, easily above Edwin Jackson or Hisashi Iwakuma.  Yu Darvish being posted would shake things up, though some teams might still prefer Wilson.  The trade market figures to feature Wandy Rodriguez and perhaps a few surprises, but I'm not sure there's a Zack Greinke, Matt Garza, or Shaun Marcum-caliber pitcher in the mix for this offseason.

Wilson's progression has been amazing – an '08 season that ended with elbow surgery, 14 saves and a 10.3 K/9 relieving in '09, a mid-rotation type in '10, and an ace in '11.  Now it's time to see what he's worth.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Arbitration Eligibles: Tampa Bay Rays

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We've covered the Orioles, Red Sox, and Yankees; now it's time to look at Rays players who will be arbitration eligible after the season.

Sonnanstine and Howell are potential non-tender candidates, as both have had rough years.  Sonnanstine is currently at Triple-A.

Price and Upton will be a relatively expensive pair.  Price, an expected Super Two player, comes with a projected $5.9MM salary that would be a first-time starter record if we didn't expect Clayton Kershaw to do even better.  Price's days as cheap ace are ending.  Upton, a trade candidate, projects in the $7MM range.

Niemann and Peralta are worth retaining as well.  Niemann is looking at a first-time salary in the $2.7MM range, while Peralta could come in at a still-affordable $1.8MM.

Jose Reyes’ Final Month

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Jose Reyes, take note. All of the players to sign free agent contracts worth more than $100MM since the 2007-08 offseason capped their respective walk years with healthy, productive final months. If Reyes, who returned from a three-week stint on the disabled list tonight, hopes to sign a nine-figure deal (or, better yet, prove Fred Wilpon wrong and match Carl Crawford’s $142MM contract) it's in his best interest to finish the season in similarly strong fashion.

For Reyes to join Crawford in the $100MM club, he’ll probably have to show interested teams that he has recovered from the left hamstring issue that sidelined him for the past three weeks. No matter what Reyes does, he won’t silence questions about his ability to stay healthy for an entire season. But if the 28-year-old can finish 2011 with one more month of electrifying play, he’ll have a stronger case for a contract worth $100MM or more.

The most recent free agents to join the $100MM club wrapped up their walk years in style. Alex Rodriguez hit ten home runs after September 1st, 2007 before signing the biggest contract in MLB history. The next year, Mark Teixeira wrapped up his campaign with a .333/.417/.631 month that included five homers. His future teammate, C.C. Sabathia, posted a 2.11 ERA in 42 2/3 innings with a 43K/7BB ratio in Milwaukee that September, concluding a sensational three month stint with the playoff-bound Brewers.

The following year, it was Matt Holliday’s turn; the Scott Boras client finished his season with a .336/.405/.523 month that included five homers. Last year, Jayson Werth hit nine homers after September 1st for a monthly line of .300/.369/.600 while Crawford added four homers and posted a .360/.402/.588 line. And who could forget Cliff Lee, who posted a 1.93 ERA in September then contributed 35 2/3 innings of 2.78 ERA ball in the postseason as the Rangers reached the World Series (he had a 47K/2BB playoff ratio).

This is not to say that these players have a direct impact on the Reyes negotiations and it’s certainly not to say that they signed nine-figure deals because they had impressive numbers for a month. Teixeira, for example, could have hit .200 with one homer in September, 2008 and still signed for well over $100MM. However, Reyes isn't a surefire $100MM player, as Mets owner Fred Wilpon explained in a memorable New Yorker article this spring.

Teams will acknowledge Reyes’ game-changing skills even if he slumps in September and they’ll question his ability to stay healthy even if he plays every inning of every game from here on. That much is certain, but, to some extent, Reyes can change the way others perceive him between now and September 28th, when the Mets play their final game. The other recent additions to the $100MM free agent club finished the year with dominant months. Reyes can join them if he takes advantage of the season's final four weeks to convince teams he’s worth a mega-deal of his own.

Minor Moves: Hayhurst, Banks

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The latest minor moves…

  • The Rays released Triple-A right-hander Dirk Hayhurst, according to the Tampa Tribune (on Twitter). Hayhurst, author of the highly entertaining book The Bullpen Gospels, last appeared in the Major Leagues with the 2009 Blue Jays. He had a 4.12 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 59 innings for the Rays' top affiliate this year.
  • The independent Long Island Ducks announced that they signed former Major LeaguerJosh Banks. The 2003 second rounder pitched for the Astros last year and also has MLB experience with the Blue Jays and Padres.

Quick Hits: Wang, Marlins, Dunn

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The Nationals signed Livan Hernandez to a one-year deal worth $1MM on this date last year. He has a 4.36 ERA with 5.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 41.7% ground ball rate in 163 innings for the Nats this season – well worth the investment Washington made a year ago. Here’s the latest from around MLB, starting with a note on the Nats…

  • MLB.com's Bill Ladson suggests that there's a strong chance Chien-Ming Wang returns to the Nationals in 2012 if he continues providing quality outings down the stretch.
  • The Marlins could take a run at C.J. Wilson if the money doesn’t get crazy, Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun Sentinel writes (on Twitter).
  • Top Marlins executives will start preparing for the 2012 season Wednesday, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports.
  • White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen met with slumping slugger Adam Dunn today to discuss a reduction in playing time, according to MLB.com's Scott Merkin.

NL Central Notes: Astros, Carpenter, Berkman

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We've already checked in on the Pirates and here's the latest on the rest of the NL Central as the first-place Brewers rest…

  • Jim Crane's purchase of the Astros is on hold because MLB is investigating employment and war profiteering charges against the incoming owner, according to Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle. However, current owner Drayton McLane remains optimistic that the sale will go through within ten days.
  • Matthew Leach of MLB.com says the Cardinals will likely find a way to bring Chris Carpenter back in 2012, even if it doesn't mean exercising his $15MM option. I took a close look at the option last week, explaining that there are ample reasons for the Cards to pick it up.
  • Though Lance Berkman projects as a Type A free agent in the National League, he would be a much higher Type A free agent in the American League, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes reports (on Twitter). It's noteworthy since the Rangers just lost Nelson Cruz to the disabled list and could consider Berkman, who has cleared waivers.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Upton, Snider

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Adrian Gonzalez won the AL Player of the Week Award for last week after homering five times in seven days. Here's the latest from a division that includes a number of prominent MVP candidates, including Gonzalez… 

  • Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com argues that Red Sox manager Terry Francona deserves more credit. The skipper has never won AL Manager of the Year, but Edes says he deserves it this year for the work he has done leading the Red Sox to an AL-best 82-51 record.
  • B.J. Upton told Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times that he's happy the Rays chose to hold onto him instead of trading him. The outfielder, who will be arbitration eligible for the final time this offseason, says he'd "love" to be back in Tampa Bay in 2012.
  • Travis Snider acknowledged to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca that his position in the Blue Jays organization has changed in recent years. The Jays demoted the former first rounder twice this season and he has lost ground on the depth chart to Eric Thames and others. Snider's resting his right wrist now and looking forward to the 2012 campaign.

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