Roy Oswalt could decide on a new team by today, Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio reported yesterday. The Red Sox, Rangers and Cardinals have all been linked to Oswalt, but the way this offseason has unfolded, it's still too soon to rule out a surprise. We'll keep track of the latest rumors right here until there's word of a decision:
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak insists Oswalt "will not be pitching for the Cardinals," according to Strauss (on Twitter).
- At this point, Oswalt is not going to the Rangers or Red Sox, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.
- A close friend of Oswalt's "would not be surprised" if the right-hander accepts the Cardinals' terms, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweets.
- Agent Bob Garber said Oswalt will make an announcement today, Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com reports. The Red Sox aren't sure what Oswalt intends to do, but they still have interest in him, according to Edes.
I would feel a lot more confident about the Sox staff if Oswalt chose them. Allowing Aceves to stay in the pen and not compete for a rotation spot would be huge since he was such a great asset in the pen last season.
Isn’t Aceves already in the pen with Bard and Padilla/Cook being the 4th and 5th starter?
If they got Oswalt, I wonder if they leave Bard in the rotation or put him back in the bullpen and make Padilla or Cook the 5th starter
ahem….Padilla/Cook/Silva/Ohlendorf
I wish that was their 1-2-3-4 🙁
I was under the impression that Bard AND Aceves were competing for the 4th and 5th spots along with the other guys they brought in. Maybe I’m mistaken.
That’s what I thought but a Red Sox fan last night told me Aceves was definitely in the pen and it would be one of those guys they picked up (listed by Shane Heathers) that would be the 5th starter.
I’m pretty sure it will be one or the other, not both. Putting both in the rotation would give them a lot of innings to replace at the end of the year after they both hit their innings limits. They are both competing but I don’t think it will be both of them.
I think Bard has the inside track at one slot (not a sure thing, but as sure as it can be until he shows he can’t do it) and the other will go to one of the actual starters they brought in to compete for a spot (Cook/Silva/Padilla/etc).
Bard’s a given for starter, until at least he falters. It’s something Bard wants to do and if I recall, he doesn’t even want an innings limit.
What pitcher wants an innings limit?
Are you serious? Padilla and Cook will definitely start the season in the minor league and will only get called up if they pitch really well
I’m going based on what other Sox fans are telling me. Some are saying Aceves is in the rotation, others are saying he will be in the bullpen with probably either Padilla or Cook starting.
Aceves is in the ‘pen pretty much no matter what. His value isn’t in being a particularly good reliever, it’s in being rubber-armed enough to pitch 90 innings in relief.
I knew he’d do well for Boston and he is probably going to continue to do so. He had to have a bike accident didn’t he! I think the Yankees non-tendered him the next day.
Yea that 2.61 ERA last year certainly isn’t why he’s valuable….
Yea ERA is a good indicator of value….
Every single stat, sabermetric or ordinary, has flaws, ERA has flaws, FIP has flaws. There is no such thing as a perfect stat.
There might not be a perfect stat, but that doesn’t mean they’re all equal by any means. ERA is a decent indicator of what actually happened, if you’re willing to adjust for the fact that it pretends batted ball luck, bullpen support, and the defense behind the pitcher are all the pitcher’s doing. But it’s a terrible indicator of future value.
FIP’s only flaws are that it doesn’t normalize home run rate like xFIP and that it doesn’t take into account the possibility that a pitcher may be better from the stretch. These are minor flaws compared to ERA.
Are you also leaving out that FIP leaves out every single, double and the on occasion triple that pitchers allow? You can’t say a pitcher isn’t responsible for his hits allowed. All of them? No, but a vast majority of them. And to say ‘FIP shows what a pitcher does without his defense” is untrue, because Innings Pitched is a stat in FIP. Also, since ERA is adjusted every single year, why does FIP still do the same imaginary 3.2# for its formula?
I’m not sure what you mean by “3.2#”. Do you mean the adjustment to bring it in line with ERA? That’s just based on the league average ERA. It’s not imaginary.
FIP leaves out hits allowed because it’s been shown that pitchers don’t control their BABIP. The only way that a pitcher is responsible for hits is by getting strikeouts (which prevent hits entirely) and fly balls (on which hits are far less likely, with the downside of the possibility for a HR and the loss of DPs).
The IP argument is interesting, though, and not one I’ve heard before. Strikeout rate could be slightly influenced by the performance of the defense behind them, thanks to its inclusion in the formula. Still, that’s a small issue, and defense has a much much much smaller part to play in FIP than it does in ERA.
The point is that FIP, while it has some minor flaws, isn’t as fundamentally and absurdly flawed as ERA, which tells you almost nothing about how a pitcher will do next year.
But everytime I see it calculated it always used that 3.20 # in its formula. That’s something I don’t understand why. If I’m not mistaken, it’s (13*HR+3*BB-2*K) / IP + 3.2
And feel free to disagree, but ignoring singles doubles and triples allowed is not a minor flaw by any means. That’s canceling out I’d say about 150 or so AB’s for a pitcher which is probably about 20% of all batters they face. That’s not minor, at least not to me.
When you say FIP tells you how a pitcher will do next year, do you mean how his ERA will be the next year?
Perhaps this will help:
fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/
3.2 is generally the difference between the average FIP and the average ERA, but the constant is always adjusted in-season to whatever the actual difference is.
It’s not canceling out 150 ABs. What it’s doing is averaging out those hits to be even for every pitcher, since it’s been shown time and again that pitchers have very very little control over where the ball goes once it’s put in play.
Which leads to your next point: this is a more accurate way to judge a pitcher’s performance than to figure that the hits allowed are up to the pitcher alone. FIP is not only a more stable and accurate indicator of value, but it also tells you what next year’s ERA will be better than last year’s ERA.
I know I’d personally rather look at a statistic that tells me how a pitcher will do next year than one that varies wildly year to year due to external factors beyond the pitcher’s control. I don’t know why anyone would prefer ERA instead, but hey, it’s your baseball experience!
And the only flawed in ERA is that sometimes it can lay on an offical scorers decision to decide whether a play is a hit or error which obviously can lead to the big difference between an earned run and unearned run.
However, dont’ leave out the fact that FIP also relies on an umpires judgement and they can make many more mistakes (in fact, more important mistakes) than an official scorer. We’ve all seen those 3-2 pitches right down the middle called Ball 4 and we’ve all seen those 3-2 pitches outside the zone called Strike 3.
Simply put, aside from the home runs allowed, 2 of the most important stats in FIP rely on an umpire .
The official scorers’ flaw is NOT the only flaw in ERA, and, while a big flaw, is far more minor than its failure to adjust for balls in play and the non-error defense and bullpen support.
Umpire errors are a flaw in baseball, not a flaw in FIP in particular. The ability of a pitcher to get strikeouts and avoid walks, even with umpires’ occasional mistakes, as well as the abilities to get groundballs and avoid home runs, are objectively and provably far more telling of the pitcher’s performance, both current and future, than how many runs the whole team allowed when the pitcher was on the mound, minus the runs that occurred after the official scorer called an error, plus the runs that the bullpen failed to strand.
Home plate umpires when they make mistakes whether it’s getting a guy out on a ball or putting a guy on base on a strike, certainly can effect FIP. It doesn’t happen often but it happens.
By ignoring singels doubels and triples, it’s like saying every ball put in play is a makeable play. Unless your defese is in the luckiest positions ever, we know simply that is not the case. No way a ball down the left field line and about 15 feet above the 3B head is going to be a play made unless the 3B plays on the outfield line maybe 20-30 feet behind the base and it’s a line drive right into his glove lol (just an example, that’s all)
Of course umpires can get pitches wrong, but the effect is overall minimal, and there’s no way to strip out those mistakes. (Yet?) As you say, it doesn’t happen often, and it’s a truly minor flaw compared to the flaws inherent in ERA.
Ignoring hits isn’t like saying every ball put in play is a makeable play; it’s saying that pitchers give up the same number of makeable plays per year as any other pitcher, which has been shown to be true. The best pitchers in baseball perform right at the average with this, just like the worst pitchers in baseball. It’s much much better to average it out than to give the pitchers credits or debits for the fielding behind them.
But, again, your mileage may vary.
Yea that 2.61 ERA last year certainly isn’t why he’s valuable….
I feel the Cardinals are the best fit for him due to being in the NL, Berkman/Beltran, and proximity to where he deer hunts with Peavy in the off season. I’m biased though as a Cards fan.
I hope Cards get him but I just dont see it happening. I would like for them to give Yadi a 5 year deal starting this year for 10 million. He is getting 7 million this year so give him the raise and keep him 4 more years at 10 million.
Is it just me, but it seems sort of funny that all of the teams with “interest” are shrugging their shoulders as if they don’t know what his statement is all about…Assuming they all have legit offers in for him, is this a “choice” statement? I tend to lean the other way that this is a Pedro move and he’ll sit for awhile until a market develops in the season when a contender needs a starter.
sounds like retirement
I think retirement would be foolish, but I’m starting to agree. “Announcement” coming from an agent doesn’t sound like “choosing which team” this late in the game. I think if he had chosen a team, that would be leaked today, and the “announcement” would come tomorrow.
Certainly starting to seem that way, though I’m more inclined to think a year off as he’s still fairly young
I have a feeling he’s going to the Red Sox
Too far away for him. He already refused a good deal to play for the Tigers.
He is an unproven commodity since his injury. He seems to be a legend in his own mind right now and over-estimating his value. I am a Cardinal fan, it would be nice to have him, but he can be left behind with little problem. Maybe the guy should retire. He sure has enough money to do that.
#MysteryTeam
I’ve got a feeling, just by the way his agent says he will “Make an announcement” that he is going to retire. I haven’t heard anything recently about other teams making an offer or upping their offer to him. I don’t know…it might make the most sense.
He’s about three or four decent seasons from being a borderline hall of famer. Retirement shouldn’t be an option, unless he feels he can’t pitch any more. I think its more a matter of resigning himself to the fact that he can’t have both the money he wants and the team he wants. He has to choose between one or the other.
I didn’t mean that it makes the most sense for him to retire, I meant that it makes the most sense given the wording of the article. I am reading though since the updates that it might be the Cards afterall but on our terms which is nice. I would love to have him in a Cards uni, but if he picks somewhere else, I won’t be upset.
Mike Mussina is a borderline hall of famer. Even if he has three or four ‘decent’ seasons, Oswalt still wouldn’t even be close.
Among pitchers with 2000+ career innings, Oswalt is 15th all time in ERA+. The other 14 are ten hall of famers, Clemens, Johnson, Halladay and Pedro. Funny. I don’t see Mussina’s name on that list.
Oswalt has a better ERA+, better FIP, better xFIP. Oswalt is better than Mussina. It is only a question of whether his productive career lasts long enough to get him in.
in a surprise move he will sign with the Brockton Rox and play alongside Bill Lee and Oil Can Boyd, under the tutelage of managing icon Bill Buckner.. Campanelli Stadium is four minutes from my house; I can’t wait for Roy Oswalt bobblehead night and Oil Can Boyd night, where the first 5 fans who enter the park stoned get to pitch an inning
I really hope he reconsiders the Tigers that could possibly be the last piece of the puzzle, plus it would give Turner and Smyly at least one more year to develop.
Newark Bears it will be :p
Mystery Team!
Could it be the Lutefisks of the Professional Scandinavian boot hockey League?
If Roy is willing to sign for less money and come out of the bullpen…Rangers. If Roy just doesn’t care anymore and wants to be close to home…Astros.
He’s not going to be a relief pitcher.
Looking more and more like the Cardinals.
Lets be honest if you are Oswalt do you want to pitch in the AL, much less AL East and Fenway at that given the questions already about your health or do you want to pitch in the NL Central that has lost Pujols, Fielder and Braun is facing a possible 50 games suspension.
Clearly he would perform better in the NL Central than the AL
Another factor he is a lifetime NL’er and maybe feels comfortable there and St. Louis also keeps him closer to home.
This would appear to be the very latest news on Oswalt.
Jon Heyman reports that Roy Oswalt will not sign with either the Red Sox or Rangers, “at least not now.”This seems to jibe with a report by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss, who was told by a friend of Roy Oswalt that he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the right-hander accepts the Cardinals’ terms. Of course, Oswalt could also decide to sign with nobody right now and try again around midseason.Source: Jon Heyman on TwitterFeb 23 – 9:10 AM
Oswalt could also decide to sign with nobody right now and try again around midseason.
If he goes that route, I think it would be silly. How would he stay in shape or maintain the motivation it takes to pitch in this league. It’s still my opinion that he should pitch on a team that he could help immediately if healthy (Mets & Royals). Nats if they decide to trade Lannon. Or even simply go back to the Astros. Who knows really? Also, I wonder if, when and who will sign Vlad G, D Lee, Matsui, or even Damon
“How would he stay in shape or maintain the motivation it takes to pitch in this league.”
By doing the same things he’s doing in the off season. Plus his number of potential suitors should increase as he could be a solid addition (ala Pedro Martinez) at the trade deadline for a team not willing to pay prospects.
It’s not unprecedented at all.
“he should pitch on a team that he could help immediately if healthy”
Ok, you’ve narrowed it down to 30 teams.
In the short term, Oswalt is better than the fifth starter on any team in baseball (when healthy).
If he wants to rebuild value, there are a number of teams on which he can do so, including most of the NL’s Central and West. If he wants to stay close to home, there are several teams close to Mississippi who would love to have him, at the right price. If he wants his $10 million contract he insisted on before, he’s already turned down a few possibilities, but may still be able to get it.
Up until this point, he seems to want all three. If that’s the case, he’s stuck in waiting mode until a team gets desperate.
He’s not going to get $10MM, at least not guaranteed money. He may get $6 or $7MM guaranteed but anything above that is going to have to come in the way of incentives, if it comes at all at this stage.
I don’t know exactly how he is “going to rebuild value” for next year, regardless. He’s going to be a year older, teams will still have concerns over his health issues even if he starts 25 to 30 games this season. And lastly as it stands now there are at least 6 or 7 starters scheduled to hit FA in 2013 that offer teams more then he will going forward.
Those are just my opinions.
Given the offers that are apparently on the table, I think he can rebuild value. If he were healthy all season last year, do you honestly think the Red Sox would refuse to offer more than $5 million or so? If they were at all serious about him, I doubt it.
He won’t be the best pitcher available next year, but if he were healthy, he would have been a better option this year than Kuroda, who got $10 million. He needs to put up good numbers and pitch a full season, and he’ll get a better offer. Chris Carpenter is 2 years older, has two more Tommy John surgeries, and got 2/$21. Oswalt needs a decent season under his belt, and he should get the same, with an outside chance of a third year.
You may be right. But keep in mind Carpenter was a few years removed from that TJS to this years 2 year $21MM extension. Also, when Carpenter had that TJS he was still in the beginning years of a 5 years deal with the Cardinals. Plus and I may be wrong but TJS is pretty common these days a degenerative disc in the back is another whole story.
But we’ll see.
I think the Nats are the mystery team involved in this.
NL Central obviously better than pitching to the Yanks & The Sox…. But the Cardinal have a tradition of winning. Both are probably pushing him to St. Louis.
NL Central would be better choice for him. I think he should sign with Cards. But it also smells like that MYSTERY TEAM. They could even be the NC Dinos in Korea! LoL
Please just don’t say retirement, Roy.
I bet this is that clown Jon Heyman jumping the gun AGAIN. $10 says he (Oswalt) signs with TEX or BOS just because Heyman says he won’t. I remember the Adrian Gonzalez deal? Heyman tweeted the deal was quote “dead”. Two hours later Gonzalez was a member of the Boston Red Sox. Clown.
I hate drama queens. Sign with someone already.
He’s choosing the retirement home. Not sure where else he’d go other than Texas, Boston, or St Louis.
Cmon Roy! Tigers!
I can see him with the Phillies, Pirates, Giants
My money is on the A’s
The most miserable situation in the league? No idea why anybody (especially Roy Oswalt) would do that to themselves.
Something tells me that Walt Jocketty and the Reds were just smoke screening I wouldn’t e surprised if, somehow, he is a Red soon.
What? Not Cards? This is going crazy
Joe Strauss just tweeted that Mo’ says he wont be in a Cardinal uniform
No he didn’t. He said he “will not be pitching for the Cardinals”. Mo said nothing about whether or not Oswalt could pinch hit.
Royals.
Marlins. Definitely taking his talents to South Beach.
In a stealthy move (assuming he doesn’t retire), I can see it being the Royals. Dayton Moore is usually hush-hush with his moves… (didn’t hear about Sanchez-Melky trade til it actually went down). Royals can definitely slot him into rotation, and it’s about as close to his home/farm/plowland as STL. It’s AL instead of NL, but AL Central is pretty weak division right now (Tigers excluded), and he wouldn’t have to worry about injuring his back trying to hit or run the bases.
By the trade deadline, the Tigers will have run away with the division and they can trade him to a contender for a decent prospect. That will clear a rotation spot for Duffy or one of their other young arms.
I’ve been thinking that’s where he’d go all along. Adding Oswalt would give the Royals an outside chance at contending too, I think. Especially if they end up adding the second wild card team.
Ok so according to this post, Oswalt is going to retire. All of the interested teams have been ruled out before an official decision has been made.
South Beach!
Interesting idea there with the Marlins. I think he would want to be as close to home as possible… so, maybe.
That’s actually one of the reasons I said it…..no joke.
Take THAT, dead horse!
It can happen can’t it? I mean it is close to Mississippi
The Oswalt-to-the-Marlins idea is an interesting one. The reference to the LeBron/taking-talent-to-South-Beach gag it was phrased with is tired like that guy at my office who won’t stop doing the Borat voice.
He’s going to either the Rangers, Red Sox, or Cardinals. But definitely not the Rangers or the Red Sox. And not the Cardinals. Gotcha.
This is a good object lesson in how messy rumor compiling can be.
I think he will sign with the Expos. Via a time machine.
Off topic, but did anyone read Heyman’s tweet about Hamels?
why hamels couldnt play for hometown sd: “why would i want to go where fans only support you from the 3rd inn. thru the 6th?”
I think he has San Diego confused with LA.
They’re both kind of like that… although San Diego just doesn’t show up in general most of the time.
Pirates
Nippon Ham Fighters?
Roy is going to donate all the proceeds from his ESPN 1 Hr Special to the FFA.
If you’re going to make a LeBron Decision gag out of this, might as well be a fresh one. Especially liked the FFA part.
I think the Royals should make a play here… I know they’re not technically contenders as of right now, but they’re not that far off, and the addition of a solid veteran like Oswalt to their rotation could put them that much closer. Plus, he’d provide a mentoring presence to the young guys like Hochevar and Duffy, and some of the young prospects they have coming up (Montgomery, Odorizzi, etc…) Not to mention, Kansas City meets the “location” requirements, as it’s close to his home.
Brewers and a private jet. Yee ha!
I say he’s going to the Tigers. No reason for that just my guess.
Detroit, I’m calling it
My vote is Detroit too
The Mystery Team strikes again!
A’s have signed roy oswalt for $5 mill + incentives,
What happened to rebuilding lol
where are you getting your information?
Just heard he’s not signing with anyone at this point in time because he doesn’t like any of the current offers.
Just heard he’s not signing with anyone at this point in time because he doesn’t like any of the current offers.
i can see beane’s logic
oswalt/mccarthy/colon all will be free agents after this season, july trade bait buys time foir a late summer infusion of parker/peacock/gray etc and hopefully returning health of braden/anderson. dont forget tom milon and tyson ross in the mix too
goies from a veteran short term rotation to a young high upside rotation within the same season
ESPN Boston is reporting St. Louis. I think we’re best served waiting until either a team president, Roy, or his agent come out and make an announcement.
Best idea yet.
You mean like ESPN Boston reported he was having a physical in St. Louis about a month ago?
No they aren’t. Quit making stuff up. ESPN Boston isn’t reporting anything.
I’m not making things up. I’m just passing along what comes across the news feed here on campus. However, I stick by what I said earlier and will wait and see.
MLB Network radio is saying (with extreme qualifiers) that Oswalt is willing to do a mid season signing instead.
Seattle Mariners is the team that should pursue Roy Oswalt as a number 2 or 3 starting pitcher to go along w/ King Felix Hernandez, Jason Vargas, Kevin Millwood, and Hisashi Iwakuma since he can handle facing Albert Pujos in the division as they know each other in the National League. Also, signing Magglio Ordonez or Johnny Damon to play in the outfield and DH will be good to take pressure off Ichiro, Mike Carp, Franklyn Gutierrez, and Jesus Montero. Acquiring infielder Travis Hafner from the Cleveland Indians for pitchers Blake Beaven or Charlie Furbush & Erasmo Ramirez and infielder Chone Figgins (then gets shipped to NL team for prospect or two). Jack Z. better meet w/ Oswalt & Damon or Ordonez and their agents to talk about signing to play for the M’s to revitalize Refuse to Lose season.