The Indians will add starting pitching and consider trading some established arbitration eligible stars.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Carlos Santana, C: $19.5MM through 2016
- Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $16.5MM through 2014
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Rafael Perez, RP: $2MM (fourth time eligible, non-tender candidate)
- Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $7.9MM (third time eligible)
- Chris Perez, RP: $7.2MM (third time eligible)
- Joe Smith, RP: $2.7MM (third time eligible)
- Kevin Slowey, SP: $2.8MM (third time eligible, non-tender candidate)
- Justin Masterson, SP: $5.7MM (second time eligible)
- Jack Hannahan, 3B: $1.5MM (second time eligible, non-tender candidate)
- Tony Sipp, RP: $1MM (first time eligible)
- Lou Marson, C: $800K (first-time eligible)
- Brent Lillibridge, UT: $700K (first time eligible, non-tender candidate)
Contract Options
- Travis Hafner, DH: $13MM club option with a $2.75MM buyout
- Roberto Hernandez, SP: $6MM club option
- Ubaldo Jimenez, SP: $5.75MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Free Agents
The Indians fired their manager following a trying season that saw the team lose 53 of 77 second half games. They had to let Manny Acta go after such a dismal finish, and hiring Terry Francona seems like a positive development for a franchise that hasn't finished above .500 since losing to Francona's Red Sox in the 2007 ALCS. It’s not enough. The Indians must also add starting pitching depth and improve on a below-average offense in the offseason ahead.
Indians starters were ineffective in 2012. The group ranked near the bottom of the league in innings (27th in MLB, 913 2/3), strikeout rate (29th, 6.1 K/9), walk rate (28th, 3.5 BB/9), ERA (28th, 5.25) and wins above replacement (28th, 4.6 fWAR). They were historically bad in many departments, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian detailed this month.
The Indians have spent with characteristic small-market restraint in the first two offseasons under general manager Chris Antonetti. It might now be time for the Indians to rely more extensively on the free agent market. Next year's payroll includes just $11MM in guaranteed contracts at this point, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. This should lead to some payroll flexibility, even after accounting for the team's large class of arbitration eligible players.
Though Justin Masterson has succeeded before and Zach McAllister and Corey Kluber showed promise this past season, the Indians need help. Internal options like Carlos Carrasco, David Huff and Jeanmar Gomez will get opportunities at some point, but relying on them to carry the team through a six-month schedule would be excessively risky.
Shaun Marcum, Joe Blanton, Ryan Dempster, Paul Maholm, Brandon McCarthy and Chris Young are some of the mid-rotation free agents Antonetti could pursue. If the Indians look to the trade market for starting pitching, they could consider targeting pitchers such as Jason Vargas, Chris Capuano, Aaron Harang and Jon Niese. Whether it's through trades or free agent signings Antonetti must obtain starting pitching.
Antonetti faces a pair of option decisions on starters who have struggled in recent years. Ubaldo Jimenez can be retained for $5.75MM or the club could decline the option following a disappointing season and a half in Cleveland. Declining the option makes sense given Jimenez's diminishing velocity and poor peripheral stats. It seems unlikely that the Indians will exercise Roberto Hernandez's $6MM option given his poor performance. His late-season ankle injury doesn’t help his case, nor do the recent revelations regarding his age and identity.
The Indians' struggles weren't confined to the rotation. They out-scored just one American League team in a season that yielded minimal production from traditionally offensive positions. Cleveland left fielders ranked last in MLB at their position with a .598 OPS. The team's first basemen (28th, .675), third basemen (24th, .677) and designated hitters (11th in AL, .702) weren't much better.
Assuming the Indians give third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall time to succeed they'll be looking at designated hitters, first basemen and left fielders this coming offseason. Spending on powerful free agents at these offense-first positions gets expensive. The Indians might find solutions to some of their offensive issues in this way, but they must also be able to find bats affordably. Players break out every year, so the Indians would do well to find this year's Brandon Moss or this year's Ryan Ludwick. Easier said than done, I know. Tyler Moore and Lucas Duda are examples of the powerful, controllable players that might intrigue Indians executives this winter.
The Indians will decline Travis Hafner's option, opening up the designated hitter spot for a newcomer. Francona would gain flexibility if his bosses don't acquire a positionless DH, so there's no need to spend on an aging slugger for the sake of tradition. It doesn't sound as though longtime Indians star Grady Sizemore will have a role on next year's team either.
Chris Perez tested the patience of Indians ownership this summer, publicly criticizing the team for its modest spending. As irksome as his words must have been, the comments themselves wouldn’t justify a trade. But when you consider Perez’s upcoming arbitration raise and the value he’d have as a trade candidate, the argument in favor of a deal becomes convincing. Better to obtain something of value for the outspoken 27-year-old while it's still possible to do so.
Perez isn’t the only trade candidate in town. It seems unlikely that the Indians will find common ground with Shin-Soo Choo on an extension, especially now that the Scott Boras client is just one year away from free agency. The Indians have discussed the possibility multiple times without making an offer Choo felt inclined to accept. Antonetti will consider trade offers for the arbitration eligible outfielder this offseason, and if the GM can get a controllable player who projects as an MLB regular he should make the trade instead of waiting and taking the risk that Choo’s trade value will diminish. The Mariners, Mets, Yankees and Giants are among the teams that could have interest in the right fielder.
Masterson’s name could surface in trade rumors this winter, as it did a few months ago. Yet the Indians might prefer to keep the right-hander in place and see if he can return to form under Francona, who managed him in Boston. Teams might also call on Asdrubal Cabrera given the scarcity of available shortstops, but dealing the 26-year-old infielder would create as many questions as it would resolve. Expect Cabrera to stay put — at least until the Indians' top shortstop prospects are ready for the MLB level.
Perez, Choo and Masterson lead a large class of arbitration eligible players. The Indians could non-tender a number of players, including Rafael Perez, Kevin Slowey and Brent Lillibridge. Jack Hannahan is a borderline case who could also be cut loose. The group doesn't include any extension candidates other than Choo, who doesn't seem inclined to sign. The Indians could also attempt to lock pre-arbitration eligible second baseman Jason Kipnis up given his strong showing in 2012.
In the next few months, Antonetti must address needs in the rotation and on offense while working with a small payroll. And though the Indians aren't in total re-build mode, they're multiple pieces away from winning anything. That's one tough offseason assignment.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Blockbuster Trade: Masterson, Perez, Santana, Choo and Kipnis to the Sox for Pedroia, Bailey, Ranaudo, Lackey, Salty and Ellsbury.
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I get it “mad” mc44
It’s a “mad, mad, mad, world”, Though even after watching that old movie 10x times? Cherrignton wouldn’t give up Pedroia alone for that package.. Nice try however..
Masterson to Boston? Possibly, For prospects? Most likely, but Francona is going to need a chance to win a few games to keep him interested and moving his best SP wouldn’t help things much.
Yeah Kipnis>Pedroia. Pedroia is the 8th ranked 2nd bagger in 2012. Kipnis is younger and plays games without a huge wall to knock doubles off of.
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How about Choo and Perez for Duda and Dickey or Niese (and maybe a second-tier minor leaguer)? Not sure that the Mets could afford it, but both players are destined to be traded (it seems), and I’m sure that those players would be of some interest to Cleveland. Meh. Doesn’t sound as good for the Mets now that I typed it…
Has Choo’s value dropped that much?
I get you. I think that Choo is a good (but not superstar) player, but he’s going to require a lot of money after 2013. He’s not as valuable as Niese (esp. with the control that comes with him) or the ace Dickey, but add that difference to Duda and a second-tier minor leaguer, and it should be worth the Wagner-like-mouthed Perez. This would put the Mets in an instant position to sign Wright and Dickey (assuming it was Niese traded) for longer contracts, as it doesn’t break the bank and hopefully shows enough of a desire to win soon. It also gives a great deal more to the Cleveland rotation and a lot of options in the line-up with Duda. Maybe?
Choo’s value has dropped, some, but Lunchbox is just doing the trade from the Mets’ perspective.
The Indians have no interest in any player they can’t control for at least, say, four years. That means Dickey is out even if he had a good year. Duda is interesting but his is a left handed hitter with ok power. The Indians want a controllable right handed hitter.
Niese, on the other hand, is very interesting. He has a team friendly contract and started almost 90 games over the last three years. If the Mets want to trade him, I would think the Indians would be very interested.
Niese for santana?
that wont happen. Santana is young and so very talented. He’s a guy the Indians need to keep. Plus Marson isn’t a starter. He’s a great backup catcher, but not a starter.
that makes no sense whatsoever. the Indians signed Santana to a long term deal where he is the leader of that offense. you got a better shot at Choo, but even that I doubt with the lack of minor league talent. you would need to give up Zack Wheeler.
Indians are at an interesting spot.
if they didn’t hire tito i would have thought a re build would be in order.. but its hard to imagine that they plan to do that and him still agreeing to the job.
The Indians are in an obvious rebuilding situation. I’m not sure what motivated Francona to sign up with Cleveland, beyond his friendship with people in the front office, but I don’t see how this team can become competitive in one off season. Further, we don’t have much help coming from the minors for at least two years. It makes a hell of a lot more sense to blow it up now, then prepare for the group of decent young guys who are rising up from the minors.
Perhaps they’ve convinced themselves that one or two key additions will return the Indians to contention, but as someone who has watched this team play ball for a long time….there ain’t no way.
Blow it up!
If the Indians non-tender Brent Lillibridge, I hope he gets another opportunity somewhere else. I have no idea what happened to his bat in 2012, though.
Paul Maholm isn’t a free agent yet…
The Mets just signed Niese this past off season…why would they trade him away when trying to build a steady rotation…
How about a deal with the Mets. Indians trade Joe Smith and Michael Brantley to Mets for Lucas Duda, Jordany Valdespin, Zach Lutz, and Jenrry Mejia? Thoughts?
Trade away younger players for over the hill guys who dont contribute? Why would Indians be interested in Duda?
Indians are in rebuild mode, Brantley may be one of the core guys of the club over the next 5-7 years. If Indians were to trade him, at least it cant be for an older guy!
They might see it better to completely restart, and trade their current core players for prospects. But that wasn’t your suggestion.
Why should Indians trade or look in th free agent pool for pitching? They’re still a year or two away from contending. Better to groom their own prospects and, if needed, add quality to fill out the roster later.
I agree that the Indians are a couple years away from contending, but the truth is that they have almost no starting pitching in the upper levels of their system. They really need to make a trade to restock AAA and AA. Try might add a free agent for a year to tide themselves over for a couple years, but they won’t have pitchers knocking their door down.