The Blue Jays had already been one of the sport’s most aggressive teams before signing NPB star Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year, $60MM contract over the weekend. Okamoto joins Dylan Cease, Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers as significant free agent acquisitions. They’ve also been one of the clubs most frequently tied to the top two free agent hitters, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette.
There has been plenty of speculation that the Jays could be Tucker’s eventual landing spot. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote yesterday that two of his sources pegged Toronto as the favorite for the market’s top player. Meanwhile, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports this evening that the Jays are making a stronger push for Tucker than they had earlier in the winter. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet adds that the sides have had recent conversations, though he suggests the door remains open to Tucker or Bichette. Toronto’s interest in Tucker stretches back to the beginning of the offseason; he visited the club’s Spring Training facility in Dunedin on December 3.
RosterResource calculates the Jays’ payroll around $280MM, which is already $40MM above where they opened the 2025 season. Their luxury tax estimate sits at $308MM, more than $20MM north of last year’s season-ending tax number. They’re above the $304MM mark that represents the top tier of penalization. That already has them on track to pay around $30MM in luxury taxes, more than all but four teams (the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Phillies) paid last season. Any future spending is taxed at a 90% clip on the average annual value. A hypothetical $35MM AAV for Tucker would come with a $31.5MM tax on top of it.
[Related Poll: Will Jays Add Another Bat?]
It’s unclear how much of a deterrent the tax obligations are for the Jays. They’re already into uncharted financial waters after coming a few inches away from their first World Series in three decades. The Rogers ownership group and the front office are clearly committed to a win-now posture. George Springer, Shane Bieber, Kevin Gausman and Daulton Varsho will all be free agents next offseason. That’s a lot of money coming off the books but also four key contributors whom they’re not guaranteed to have back in 2027, which should only increase the motivation to make another run this year.
Tucker, a career .273/.358/.507 hitter, is the best offensive player available. He’d step into an everyday right field role, pushing Anthony Santander to left. The Jays would have Springer as their primary designated hitter. Okamoto and Addison Barger could play either third base or factor into the corner outfield. It wouldn’t leave much playing time for Nathan Lukes, who’d be a speculative trade candidate. Lukes is coming off a solid season (.255/.323/.407 with 12 homers) but isn’t the kind of player who’ll prevent teams from making a run at a star.
General manager Ross Atkins spoke in generalities this morning about the team’s diligence in looking for continued ways to improve (link via Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet). Atkins noted that any “additions at this point start to cut away playing time from players that we feel are very good major league pieces.” While it’s not a given that they’ll make any moves, that’d seemingly point toward them only strongly pursuing impact talent rather than targeting marginal upgrades over role players.
If the Jays were to land Tucker, that’d almost certainly close the door on a reunion with Bichette. One team signing the top three free agents in an offseason is essentially without precedent, and adding both players would push Toronto’s luxury tax number well above $350MM. Bannon indeed suggests that while the Jays aren’t out of the running for Bichette, a new deal with their longtime shortstop looks less likely after the Okamoto signing.
Playing Okamoto and/or Barger regularly at third base pushes Ernie Clement to second, where Bichette would probably be penciled in if he heads back to Rogers Centre. The bigger deterrent may simply be a reluctance on the team’s part to make a long-term commitment to Bichette. Bannon writes that a reunion could be more likely if the infielder settles for a shorter deal that allows him to opt out after the first season.
Just resign Bo and be done with it already.
I like the Tucker fit better. A big lefty bat to pair with Vlad. Think he’ll have a better next 7 years than Bo performance and health wise. I expect he’ll cost more in AAV, but think it’ll probably be worthwhile.
Tucker is the better fit, especially since they overpaid Gimmy and obviously want his defense at SS. However, I suspect Tucker will demand a lot more money and if it was my money (lets say $200M vs $400M total deal) I would take Bo. But its not my money and Atkins doesnt want Bo 🙁
Gimenez was already extended I believe
@Oppo nacho
Correct. That’s Cleveland’s contract.
Gimenez is why Bo’s the better fit.
Tucker is NOT getting $400 million from any team period! Even a 9 yr deal at $35 million avv is $315 million. He won’t come close!
And 35mil aav is twice as much as he got for 2025. I don’t even put blame on him for the injury. I put the blame on the FO. They f’d up and dropped the ball when they didn’t put him on the IL right away when he had a tight hamstring.
I don’t think he’ll get even 35mil a year. He’ll be 29 in a few weeks. I wouldn’t go more than 8 years and 270-285mil
Even that gets him 35mil aav
Actually it’s the opposite. Gimmy is a SS by trade, and a gold glover at that. Just flipping him and Bo at SS and 2B would make the Jays better. If Bo’s not willing to move to SS then Gimmy and Clement with Tucker in the outfield is a much better option for the Jays.
Obviously the Jays have too much money into Santandar, which is exasperated even more with a Tucker signing, but Tucker replacing AS is much more impactful than Gimmy and Clement replacing Bo.
Exacerbated, maybe.
Diggy you make a lot of assumptions that aren’t based on reality. How can you read minds so easily?
Is santanders contract even that bad? Everything is deferred and it had a NPV at the time of signing of $62.5M over 5 years or $12.5M per season with only 4 to go.
Yeah, it’s not a complete train wreck like Rendon’s was, but it’s still pretty ugly for a guy who hit .175 and was on a 17 home run pace over 162 games. I know injuries affected him even when he was in the lineup, but production like that gets a player a Minor League Contract with an invite to Spring Training usually.
Gimenez is a gold glover at 2B. Not short.
Played both when winning Gold Gloves in Cleveland.
Won the gold glove at second base, not shortstop. He is not a gold glove shortstop. Thats like saying Ryne Sandberg was a gold glove shortstop. Over Ozzie. Never happened. He might’ve played some shortstop, however that gold glove was for second base.
He was really good at SS this past year and could be a GG there.
@FrozenRopes
He had 119 innings at SS in ’25. That’s not enough to draw any conclusions.
Well, the guys getting paid millions by the owners of the 2+ billion dollar team to make those decisions seem to think so. I will trust them over a rando on the internet forum.
Its a tough call either way. I would go based off of needs more then anything. You cant move gimenez contract its superbloated. Its wether or not you think clement/lukes are the real deal. You bring bichette back with the okamoto signing where do you play barger and clement you being Tucker in where do you play schneider/Lukes.
As for bichette and Tucker I think Tucker is a better fit hes a left hander who would help split the rightie heavy they have. While bichette has more hits Tucker has more patience and more base smarts. Indicated by his 20 triples 119SBs. He walks at a much higher rate then bichette and strikes out less then bichette. I think the jays learned a valuable lesson during the world series.. when the hit to contact philosophy dries up or struggles its nice to hit those solo homers. Dodgers did that in game 7 say what you will about the pitch selection but whwn the jays pitchers left a meat ball over the plate they make them pay.
So could Clement.
Says the rando that thinks Gimenez could be a gold glove shortstop. FrozenRopes, Gimenez is only a major leaguer because of his contract. Otherwise he would never start based on his bat.
Agreed, but it is also not enough for you to suggest he couldn’t win one at SS.
He can’t win one greg1. There is a reason he was moved to second base. He’s not even the best defensive shortstop on his own team. That belongs to Clement.
One, to suggest Clement is better, that’s unfounded. Whether he can or not, I imagine we’ll find out if they don’t re-sign Bo.
@greg1
For their careers at SS, Clement had a 7 DRS and 5 OAA in about 600 innings. In about 750 innings, Gimenez has 6 and 8 DRS/OAA. Gimenez played about 120 innings at SS in ’25. Clement had 170. Wouldn’t the better player have gotten more time at SS?
Not really when you had Gimmy ingrained at 2B during the regular season. If the Jays felt Clement was the better SS, they would have had Barger play 3B, Clement at SS and Gimmy at 2B during the playoffs. Last I checked, that isn’t the way the club went. I guess you know more than the Jays management and John S during the WS run.
@greg1
In your post I replied to you wrote,”One, to suggest Clement is better, that’s unfounded.”. I provided career numbers (to increase the sample size) to demonstrate that Clement is just as good if not marginally better than Gimenez at SS. This counters your “unfounded” statement with data. Instead you chose to deflect to a new line of argument of roster construction in the playoffs. Where is your data to support your argument?
The comment suggesting I know more than their management team was just a little over the top defensive though, but truly telling.
I would play Springer in LF and DH Santander
Clement played more three bag because he has a better arm than Gimenez, and for those who’ve watched he’s better on the left side than Gimenez. Ask Cleveland why they moved Gimenez to second – hint: he’s not a Gold Glove calibre defender at short.
No Saint provided some facts, and if Gimenez had an arm or a bat he would play third base. Clement moves around because he’s the better defender on the left side.
It’s simple, as you know NoSaint. Clement plays more third because Gimenez does not have the arm. Because of that, plus the Bo factor, Jays played the guy that accumulated more innings at third (Clement) than Gimenez. Greg has never watched Clement D up.
Some of these pieces need to start falling. 5 weeks until pitchers and catchers report!!
Tucker isn’t a catcher/pitcher.
Just a thought, but Bo and Vlad have proved they can coexist. The jury would be out on whether Tucker and Vlad will.
Chemistry and egos are tricky things among teammates and especially new ones sometimes. It is not always plug and play like people think.
Yup I don’t see Tucker being a good fit chemistry-wise either. And if they sign him over Bichette that will be like a double whammy for team cohesion. I think it would be a huge mistake to choose Tucker over Bo. But I wouldn’t put it past Clueless Ross to do something like that.
Ignorant son of a b
How do you know the inner workings of the front office? Your takes are equivalent to the garbage men taking out trash. Haha mariners fans are a joke on this website
Okay so what do you think is going to happen Anthony? Fascinated to hear your take.
My name is Antony. I can’t predict the future like you. Shouldn’t someone hire you as a consultant if you know so much? Hahaha. I’m just teasing you because so many people here think they know everything. We all know you don’t though
Of course, it’s part of the fun Antony. I don’t think anyone here thinks they are an expert on anything. It’s the nature of these message boards to spout out our preferences, opinions, & theories.
Baseball you play as a team, but everything in this game is individual. Its not like tucker is taking the last shot over vlad, chemistry on the field in Baseball doesnt exist.
Chemistry on the field doesn’t exist? Umm, they have signals and communicate with one another. Communication is chemistry. Pitchers and catchers have chemistry. If you don’t understand that or believe chemistry in baseball doesn’t exist, you’re in the wrong forum.
Chemistry is definitely a real thing in the clubhouse. Toronto had that going in spades last season and that tight cohesion of the entire group was what pushes good teams to greatness. (The New York Mets are the opposite example, toxic clubhouse culture and players butting heads contributed greatly to a lost season.) Another example of team chemistry pushing a team to greatness can also he found in the Seattle Seahawks locker room this year. All those players talk about is being selfless and playing to make your brother look great. I think having that team-first mentality (chemistry) is essential for any team that aspires to greatness.
Be crazy if the Jays land King Tuck. That would be a loaded lineup. Definitely would have to make a trade from their poistion player group if they get Tucker.
Lukes
No way! Both Dalton Varsho and Davis Schneider are the odd men out. Varsho’s elite defense should be enticing to clubs around MLB – but his bat (and a horrible head up the @ss lead off 3rd by Kiner-Falefa) is what kept the Jays from adding a 3rd World Series title to the franchise.
Miles Straw can handle late inning duties in CF in tight games giving Tucker, Lukes, Barger and Springer all chances for OF reps with some good balance.
I do hope they extend Bo as well. He is one of the homegrown faces of the franchise with Vlad so that should be the main priority. But with Springer, Varsho and Straw all as free agents after 2026, the Jays OF does need some work for the future.
With the acquisition of Okamoto and hopefully Bo as well, the Jays infield is in good shape and virtually no place for Davis Schneider. By trading Varsho and Schneider, the Jays should be able to land a high end late inning reliever or closer.
Who exactly do you see playing CF if they trade varsho? Over the last 3 years Tucker’s range has been in the 10th percentile, did not qualify, and 25th percentile. He’s not a CF.
Straw would be the one he’s won a CG as a centrefeilder, just doesn’t hit much although he did well last year considering what was expected after that trade.
Which is exactly why I don’t think they should trade Varsho. Overall, there’s a pretty big drop off offensively without gaining anything on defense. Varsho can match Straw defensively.
And a platoon of Varsho and Straw is elite defense and decent offence
Lukes is a bench player at this current roster state.
Lukes has options so unless the return is significant that would be a silly move to make
Its just one year they need to make it work, injuries will probably sort everything out anyway
If they sign Tucker, they should trade Santander. They did plenty well without him last year, and they have other players that can step in his place.
Um…so you’re going to pay somebody to take him away? Because the Jays can’t give him away for nothing. Nobody’s going to take him for free. Nobody. There’s no trading him.
Also, there’s no reason to trade him. He’ll be their full time DH a year from now when Springer walks.
Sure, the Jays can always designate him to hit. But will he? That’s the question. He’s likely washed up. Why the Jays couldn’t tell the guy was selling out for homers in his last season with the O’s I have no idea. The bat has slowed and so has his pitch recognition. He along with Andres Gimenez are boat anchors. Berrios to a lesser extent.
Gimenez is most assuredly not a boat anchor. Is he overpaid a bit? Sure. But he is quite literally one of the top two or 3 defenders in baseball.
@BeenThereDoneIt
I’m going to be charitable here and choose to believe you’ve never even looked at his contract obligations. Because there is no one anywhere who believes Andres Gimenez is merely “overpaid a bit.” His contract is so underwater that there’s no hope for it. It is simply one of the worst current contracts in the sport.
You may console yourself that the Jays can afford such extravagance, but sooner or later it’s going to be a factor that cannot be ignored. Already its mere presence means you can’t go after Bo. You can always find a fine fielding SS who can’t hit, and they cost nothing, but with Andres on the books, Bo becomes impossible to acquire to play 2B. And you’d be much better off with a solid defender at SS who makes peanuts and Bo playing 2B than what you’re heading for now.
Where are these extra fine fielding and hitting shortstops that cost nothing? Every team could use an extra. Hell the Padres would sign one just to put them somewhere else on the field…
What are you taking about? First off, Gimenez’s previous three years he was a 7 WAR, 5 WAR, and 4 WAR player. He had a tough 2025 no doubt but he was also hurt. $15M per year for him is not overly excessive. Kim just signed for $20M this season and he’s essentially the same player with a lesser glove. I get the years and total money are different but every year Gimenez’s $15M is less and less impactful based on the market. I’d love to know these elite defensive Shortstops you can get for less than this?
No doubt we’d like more from him at the plate, but his D cannot be understated.
They already have one on their team. Clement’s numbers at shortstop defensively over the last few years are comparable to Gimenez’s. Clement is also a better hitter.
I love Ernie but his SS metrics really don’t compare to Gimenez. Gimenez is a 4.8+ RF/9 player, this puts him in line with the top 3-5 SS in the league. Ernie sits around 3.65 at SS, that would be essentially league average. Ernie is an elite 3B, a very good 2B, and a league average SS. Gimenez is an elite SS. Ernie was a better hitter last year, agreed. But Ernie is also under contract and it’s really tough to compare a guy who recently signed to a guy still on a Super 2 contract.
@Colter Wood
If you’re talking about Range Factor per 9 then I suggest using advanced stats like DRS and OAA as better metrics to evaluate a players’ defensive ability. Range Factor uses putouts and assists as it’s variables in the formula. Neither of which measures a players “range”.
Using DRS/OAA for Clement and Gimenez at SS, Clement comes away with 7 and 5 in about 600 career innings while Gimenez scores 6 and 8 in about 750 career innings. They’re both about the same at SS.
@Colter Wood
OMG, is it really that difficult to look up the man’s contract?
Yes, he makes a “mere” $15 million in 2026. You and I both know that he’ll still be vastly overpaid if he puts up another year anything like 2024, much less 2025.
But that’s not the point.
He’s going to be paid (gulp) $23.5 million in 2027!
And another $23.5 million the year after that!
And yes, another $23.5 million the year after that!
You don’t think this would have been better spent on Bo Bichette? Or in almost any other fashion?
I repeat, no matter how sublime Andres’ defensive skills are, that bat is horrid. Why do you think CLE couldn’t wait to unload him when they saw the writing on the wall? I don’t think they could believe their good fortune when Toronto volunteered to take him off their hands.
A solid defender at SS is all you really needed. Hell, you put up with Bo all those years, just a cheap upgrade defensively at SS, slide Bo over to 2B and the Jays could probably had Kyle Tucker too (especially if they hadn’t gone out of their freakin’ minds signing that boat anchor Santander).
Please don’t try and tell me that Gimenez’s contract isn’t an impediment in all this. It’s just not being honest.
He’s making 14 mil a year after deferrals. Lots of teams would take him. Teams know he was injured this year. Not a big deal. I want the Jays to plug him in the lineup though.
His contract isn’t that bad though. You chip in $10M and I think you could trade him..The NPV of his contract was only $12.5M per season. So throw in $10M and its only $10M
I believe in what your saying and think if they were able to unload both Gimenez’s and Straw Berrios for Marte than you sign both Tucker and Bichette and you have yourself a dynasty. I would even go as far as making an offer to someone like Luiz Alvarez and see if they can make him a decent left fielder. Suck up the extra money for one year. Springer, Gausman, Bieber, contracts are done after 2026, and if Barger improves and Santander bounces back you trade Santander either at the deadline or in the offseason. When you think about it, its not that far fetched. If all 3 expiring contracts want to come back to be part of something special, I guarantee they take a little less money. But I do see them only retaining one of the two pitchers.
You can’t get Tucker if you DFA Straw. He was best man in his wedding.
That would be nice but that’s a tough contract to move. Especially with how poorly he played in ’25
Glad this is taking forever. Just like the other free agents. Lets just drag it out until March.
Go get’em Jays! Maybe the rest of the AL East will get motivated too
Stupid comment. The Athletic pegged O’s as most improved so far, and Boston made the top 7.
My god man, relax
Mr. Boggs is quite opinionated
And they likely said the Dodgers were going to win 120 games this last season. You still have to play the games.
95 wins is good enough. No reason to run these guys out for 162 games.
Most improved based on where they started which was on a much lower level of the totem pole. The Jays are by far the best team in the division and it’s not close. If they add in Tucker or Bichette then it’s a landslide.
Sorry but is there a player in the league more ripe for regression than Alonso…… he ain’t seeing the marlins and nationals starters 20 times a year
Career home runs vs teams:
statmuse.com/mlb/ask/pete-alonso-career-homeruns-v…
Chris Davis 2.0
Hmmm maybe looking at HR ratio compared to plate appearances would be better? Alonso has a 6.1% HR/PA against both >= and < 0.500 teams over his career. It only jumps up to 6.7% vs the Nats and Marlins, but is 11.6% at OPACAY with 5 HRs in 10 games, 43 PAs.
I see the trolls are out in force!
Mr. Boggs! Happy New Year! My bad on the stat filled trollological post. I’ll stick to your shtick and label other’s comments “stupid.” Sending you fried chicken and lots of love!!! Thanks for unmuting me though, much respect…
Where does Bo go if Toronto signs Tucker?
Hopefully the Red Sox
Not if the Sox re-sign Bregman.
CWS or PIT
This comment is only like 50% sarcasm because those teams actually have made some decent waves this off-season.
Dodgers 🙁
I figured he would have been a Dodger already….
What about the braves ?
Sign Tucker! The only thing that may stop Toronto is the bullpen.
Also this isn’t clickbait.
Its good enough and they have the prospects to aquire one at the deadline.
Jealous of the Blue Jays farm.
All the money is a drop in the bucket for the money printing machine known as Roger’s
Why don’t you go tell Kyle and at least 40 percent of the MLB that you would celebrate if they died
Manuutebol,
The Pirates are consistently one of the most profitable teams in baseball. They won’t die anytime soon.
Woah… Where did that come from? Did he make another comment somewhere else that I missed?
You lost me here. He is talking about an owner having deep pockets, what does that have to do with celebrating the death of other teams?
Tucker is a nice player, but do the Jays really need another outfielder for this upcoming year? Just sign the best outfielder available next offseason
Tucker is better than any OF free agent next year (If Acuna does not get his option picked up he is clearly cooked). and Varso is is a pending FA as is Springer. So it makes sense to go for Tucker now. Santander will be DH or benched next year so easy open spot, and they still need to re-sign Varsho or sign other defense first CF. Obviously some or all of Lukes/Loperfido/Davis Schneider would be dropped if they sign Tucker. Also maybe they make a big splash with a Barger trade? who knows. Worry about trading the cheap guys later.
Next years OF free agents aren’t that great.
Good on the Blue Jays for hitting the accelerator when they have a chance to be right back in the World Series again and taking advantage of the opportunity to win now.
They also have playoff money to spend. And not just regular playoff money. Broadcasting the only team in the country playoff money.
The way it’s going, it’s probably going to be a Dodgers vs. Blue Jays World Series. Both teams aren’t stopping, so congrats and enjoy possibly a three-peat.
They also have the benefit of my increased cell phone bill.
@Acoss1331
Clearly you don’t know how baseball works. No matter how much you spend, or how much you want it, there’s no guarantee you’ll get to the top of the mountain.
But by all means, spend all you got. I’m not complaining about it. At this point, though, every dollar you spend has diminishing utility. You can’t move the luck needle with $$$$.
Avory,
Maximizing the odds is a real thing. Whatever happens after that happens.
All you can do is put yourself in the best position to succeed. And I’m thankful my team is willing to do just that. If a random team makes the playoffs and is scorching hot throughout? If they win they win. For for them.
Happened with Arizona a few years ago. Life moves on.
If you do your best and fail, it’s something you can accept. Get up and do your best again. That’s just life.
Oh for god’s sake, this isn’t about homilies related to some sad sacks who get knocked down and pick themselves up again; this is about behemoths who think they need even more artillery to obliterate their competition when said competition is already outgunned. While such assurances may work in war, this is baseball, and you can’t control for luck, even though you think you can with just one more itsy-bitsy, teeny-weeny $100 million contract.
This is pure economics. At some point (and the Dodgers and Jays are right there) those extra dollars spent represent diminished marginal utility. Each dollar you spend gets you less and less than the previous one did.
But hey, spend away! You’ll be one day closer to the Day of Reckoning, when you’ll decide you can’t do it anymore and what you did didn’t guarantee squat.
Everyone acts like spending all the way up the ladder leads to preordained outcomes. They don’t. Just ask the Mets and Phillies. And I suspect the Jays will learn that hard lesson after 2026.
If your comment had a point then I must have missed it.
The two teams (Yankees and Dodgers) that have made the playoffs virtually every season over the last few decades are the ones that consistently spend lots of money. Yeah, spending doesn’t guarantee you a title because the playoffs can be pretty random, but it gives you a shot every year.
Avory,
If I’m understanding you correctly, you think is stupid for the Dodgers to spend more money because at this point the gains are small compared to the investment.
And since any team can spend money and lose, why spend more?
If the Dodgers spending $500m instead of $300m isn’t going to move the needle, be happy they are the test case for every other team thinking about spending money, and proving you right.
For the other point, did you forget that 2023 happened? Arizona ran the table with their massive $112m payroll. Everyone in baseball knows it just takes a team getting hot at the right time to wreck everyone’s plans.
There are no preordained outcomes in baseball. All you can do is all you can do.
That’s debatable. I remember reading an article from fangraphs that said, a great hitting team adding a great hitter will benefit from it more than a poor hitting team. Said great hitter will have more opportunities to do damage in a better lineup.
Better fit than Bichette since a lot of his contractual value comes from the fact he can play middle infield. They have enough there and should just get the best player available.
Springer DH
Tucker RF
Vlad 1B
Varsho CF
Kirk C
Okamoto 3B
Clement 2B
Gimenez SS
With barger and Schneider bouncing around that’s pretty elite. Trade Lukes for bullpen
You forgot about Santandar.
Yeah I meant Santander in LF
The lineup is a lot better than you are making it out to be if they sign Tucker.. Barger or Santander would be 4th depending on if Santander bounces back. Varsho/Kirk would be lower and Okamoto higher. Also Ernie would play SS against lefties I hope and Davis can play 2B, hell maybe Barger can play 2B sometimes.
Still want to see Bo with Tucker.
Bo should be available around 7 and $175….. it’s just money, and gosh knows Roger’s prints enough of it.
Springer DH
Vlad 1B
Bo 2B
Barger RF
Kirk C
Okamoto 3B
Santander LF
Clement SS
Varsho CF
That’s a better lineup.
I like the idea of bringing Bo back more as well. I just don’t trust Tucker come playoff time. I know some people will say it’s just small sample size, but I think the reason Tucker struggles in the playoffs is because he has a hard time with elite velocity. In the playoffs in high leverage situations, the average velocity is 97.8.
Last season he hit .219 with a .333 wOBA against 97 plus which is in line with his career numbers. Bo on the other hand hit .448 with a 516 wOBA against 97 plus.
Bo also hit a 100 mph fastball from Ohtani in game 7 for that home run. I think Tucker only has one career home run against 100 mph.
I mean in a big rebound year for Bichette he still had a lower WAR than Tucker’s “down year”. I understand the playoff concerns but I think that is significantly less reliable than large samples of regular season play
The thing that concerns me is the reason why I think he’s struggling in the playoffs, which seems to be due to the velocity. He has a large sample size against high velocity in the regular season and hasn’t performed particularly well there either.
Frahman,
Not as much as you would think. Regular season stats are awesome. But being clutch when it counts is a valuable skillset.
I’ll use the dodgers as an example. Every off-season I hear fans say they should let Muncy go and “upgrade” at third base. Check their record when he’s in the lineup and out. And in the postseason? He’s extremely clutch. And that’s when it matters. The moment isn’t too much for him, and it shows.
Same with Kike, and Rojas. And Chris Taylor before Father time took him down.
The Jays should make the playoffs. It’s what happens when you get there that matters. And you need the right players to do it. Bo on one leg was as clutch as it gets for the Jays. Yes there were others who were also clutch. But that’s a winning player for a playoff team.
Someone complain about Kikes regular season stats again. Playoff Kike doesn’t care.
Playoff Vlad was extremely impressive. Why not keep playoff Bo?
I would argue it’s tough to measure clutch. Yes maybe some players handle pressure better than others but these are professional athletes and you can’t expect some great player is going to perform significantly worse in a big moment. Players go through cycles of seeing the ball well and slumps which can both happen in the postseason.
Bichette has 52 postseason PAs with a worse OPS than his career regular OPS and it was good he came back and showed he was healthy but regardless of his performance the 3000+ regular PAs are representative of how good a player he is.
If the jays got either Bichette or Tucker that would be great for them but my point is I think Tucker would definitely be better. I’ll also disagree with the Muncy thing I think he’s a very solid 3B (offensively).
Fair enough.
Tucker is an excellent player. Bo is an excellent player. There isn’t a lot of downside in choosing either of you’re the Jays.
Bo’s playoff slash line is .311/.385/.400. That’s pretty solid. Especially since it’s weighed down by the 0/8 he took in his first playoff year. Since then he’s been much better. His OPS in 2023 was 1.000 and in 2025 it was .923.
In 279 PA Tucker’s postseason line is .233/.317.376. In ascending order here is Tucker’s BA over his last 7 playoff series: 0.00, .143, .154, .154, .190, .250, .273. In those seven playoff series combined, he drove in a total of seven runs (only 1 more than Bo drove in over the course of the world series).
Just to add what I wrote above, of those seven runs batted for Tucker 5 of them came in one game against Aaron Nola on pair of home runs on a 91.1 MPH fastball and an 86.1 MPH changeup. The rest of those games he played over the course of those seven playoff series he drove in a total of two runs.
In 279 PA in the postseason. He has never homered off of a fastball above 97 mph. Velocity shuts him down.
I would disagree if you want to sit Gimenez which would be surprising I still think Tucker over Bichette outweighs any defensive downgrade of moving Barger to 2B
I don’t think they’re going to play Barger at second. To the best of my knowledge, he has zero experience at middle infield. I think the reason he wants Gimenez on the bench is to get Clement into the lineup. His defensive numbers at shortstop are actually quite comparable to Gimenez’s.
I would agree Clement is probably better than Gimenez never understood that trade when it happened. Barger played middle infield in the minors and obviously the Jays know more than us but he’s a young player who’s better at 3B than OF so I assume he’d be able to handle 2B fine.
We’ll see what they do but I think the jays the would be better off adding the higher ceiling player in Tucker. I think their middle infield depth would still be fine with Barger (if he can play), Gimenez, clement, Schneider
Fraham- Gimenez should not be starting over anyone if Bo is re-signed. Clement should be the starting shortstop.
That would make Andres Gimenez the highest paid reserve in the history of the game, if not in 2026, then definitely in 2027-2029.
That is correct Avory. And if Tucker is signed we could be looking at Santander.
No point in letting money stop you from fielding the best team when you’re spending this amount of cash. If Clement helps the team win more games than Gimenez, he should start. That being said, it would suck having someone on the bench making that much money.
Barger at second base! Aaaaahahahahahahahaha
@its_happening
Santander won’t make near as much money in those four years (2026-2029) as Gimenez, that’s how bad Andres’ contract is. Santander’s is awful, Gimenez’s contract is unspeakably bad.
Nobody denies that.
Yankees from the top rope!
Nah, I don’t think they’re looking to spend that kind of money.
I’m shocked LAD aren’t all over this though with a flying hurracanrana.
I think the Dodgers are lurking with a short term, high AAV contract.
Dodgers are in a position to sit back and watch. There are a number of free agents who would be a good fit for them. If they let the other teams beat each other up signing a few guys, they can possibly make a later signing when the market cools off.
It might facilitate getting someone on a shorter term deal than they wanted. And if you’re one of the last big dogs left on the board, going to the dodgers for a high aav and and good chance of getting to the WS, that’s not a bad consolation prize.
Or they have a plan and are just waiting for whatever Friedman said they needed to be patient for. Plus, they have Alex Call.
I hope Tucker and Bo sign elsewhere than LA. I want to see what Alex Freeland can do and the OFs lurking in the pipeline like Josue DePaula, Zyhir Hope and Mike Sirota.
I’m sick of seeing the homegrown talent shipped out or allowed to walk after proving they’re worth the salt.(Seager, not Bellinger.)
I think Tucker wants to sign with the Dodgers right now but is waiting for more length in their offer. Otherwise he would have signed with the Jays already. I think he probably just takes the Dodgers offer in the end.
The Jays see the Dodgers as their true competitor and want to build a comparably intimidating lineup.
Good for them. I’m glad to see them going all in. It’s good for baseball.
They have “spoken” like they are both the dodgers and cardinals for years, in terms of culture, evaluations, etc
It has been infuriating listening to their leadership over the years, wondering how their heads fit through the door on the way to the pressers
But when it finally clicked….it was not a bad ride.
They took it as close as you can get without getting the prize. Pretty damn good by any standards.
Even though I’m an O’s guy, the Jays getting Tucker makes for an even more interesting AL East. And it would be another all in move for a team that was so close to a world series title.
With a lockout likely in 2027, Blue Jays windows is very short. All in to get the WS makes sense. Especially if they can get a cheap year this year with bigger payouts near the end of the contract
If there’s a lockout, teams don’t have to pay for missed games. So there’s that.
It boggles my mind that people think a possible lockout/stoppage looming is the MLB apocalypse. They may miss a few 2027 games if it even gets that far and then it’s business as usual when neither side wants to lose revenue/income.
Baseball is really making a comeback worldwide. They would be foolish to slow that momentum down too much.
Negotiations have to happen and things need to be agreed to, but don’t be stupid about it.
If the past is any indicator they are very foolish.
Trey Yesavage, Kirk, and Anthony Santander (full contract) for Kodai Senga, who says no?
Me.
That’s about the dumbest thing I’ve read on here in a while
@LFGMets (Metsin7) #BannedAgain&Again&AgainFireStearns
Me too.
Throw in some GameStop stock…..
👀
Gifted World Series win from the blue jays.
Could the Jays be doing some roster-management work in preparation for signing one of these guys? By that, I mean exploring a trade for top-level pitching, including MLB-talent from the Jays, that might impact whether Kyle or Bo would be the better fit after any trade. Either one makes the Jays better.
My preference would be Tucker because he helps balance the line-up left and right and will hold his value better. But he WILL be expensive
I am a huge fan of Bo, and have been since I started following him in the minors. That bat, healthy and perhaps supported by reduced defensive responsibilities, is elite. He’s a professional hitter and will do well wherever he ends up.
Bo moving on will not hurt as much if Kyle moves in but that hurt will be back many times over if he ends up in Boston or New York. Go west, young man!
I would imagine the roster management would be bullpen related, or ideally moving Barrios (which would easily allow for Bo and Tucker)
They are certainly out of Paxton Schultz’s to drop off the 40 man
Bo almost needs to just be a Dh/2b at this point but the bat is legendary.
Bo is not the same Bo and Jays know this. Tucker meanwhile still has his legs in working order as well as the bat with 20+ HR power.
Bo lost his speed and is no longer a plus at SS, He may get 15-19 HRs
He is basically a 2B or DH that has a plus hit
Tucker is a much better fit in Toronto.
Bo quite literally just had one of his best years of his career and it would have been way better if he didn’t miss the last month of the season.
usually players do have their best season in contract years its quiet a motivation. I think Bo is good but he has lost some of his edge as injuries have taken toll
This wasn’t his best season though.
best meaning playing top notch to get best deal they can.
Jays with Tucker would be crazy. I’d gladly renounce my citizenship and emigrate. Maybe Argentina could fund my move.
I still want both Tucker and Bo
Much easier if Berrios and Santander can somehow be moved and they should movable.
Okamotos money isn’t real money….the Jays are going to double his $15 million in Japanese’s broadcasting rights, ads, and merch…hands down
They would have to make hard decisions moving Barger, and or Clement for high leverage bullpen help or a closer. Not sure how much Lukes or Davis will actually garner
Straw will have little trade value, and Tucker was Straws best man….so….if Tucker comes to town Straw is at-least here next year.
Tucker is the top 4 of the order left handed bat the jays have needed for over 2 decades……..it’s hilariously long…..Carlos Delgado left in 2004. 2015’s best team in baseball had Chris Colabello, Ben Revere, Justin Smoak As left handed hitters… Jays just haven’t had top of the order left handed bats….but I still want Bo and Tucker…… luxury tax be damned. I will switch my Internet to Roger’s if they do
Santander and Berrios are “moveable”? Hilarious.
Maybe if you send along all but about $5 million they’re owed….
You guys are pounding too many Molsons. You’re drunk with unrealistic expectations.
Berrios is very movable and Santander is only
Making like 13 a year with the rest deferred and 1 year removed from 40+ bombs.
For the drunk part absolutely we are but it’s rye whiskey….also Canadian and you’re welcome.
Berrios when traded would be a 3/64+ million contract. They could trade him but it would be for nothing more than a salary dump if they don’t eat any money. It the Jays wanted prospects in return they would have to eat at least $5 mil/year. Otherwise it’s a “Matt Mikulski-esque” return
If Barrios throws up a sub 4 era (highly possible) he ops out of the remaining 2 years and goes to market.
He would be the opening day starter on a third on the leagues teams.
@BetterMuppet:JUDGEorKERMIT?
Santander is not “making like 13 a year,” he’s making $16.5 million the next two years, an average of $14 million the two years after that AND he makes $5 million a year from age 40 until 51.
Good luck getting somebody to take on those obligations for a washed-up player.
If by a third you mean 3 teams then sure. He could start for the A’s, White Sox, and Rockies…after that nope. Every team has better options.
But let’s say you flip him to one of those, he could be packaged up to bring back a Luis Robert or Brenton Doyle or a Lawerence Butler should they not get Tucker.
Just looking for salary relief. For his behaviour with the playoff roster construction I would be happy with “cash considerations” in return. Aka an in and out burger from Sacramento. Not a combo….just a burger.
And he’s not that bad….
@Avory Dude….. why are you so mad.
Um…because I prefer to deal in facts, not wishful thinking?
Believing Berrios is “opening day” quality as a starter is just another ludicrous assertion. Even the Chicago White Sox have a better guy (2.3 WAR Shane Smith) than Berrios to trot out there .
“where his face-value AAV is $18.5 million, though actual accounting for luxury tax (CBT) is lower due to salary deferrals, with figures around $13.7 million-$14.3 million depending on the source”.
Google it!
And how many teams have luxury tax considerations? And among those, how many are stupid enough to gum up their roster with a costly paper weight like Santander? You can defer money all you want, you still OWE it. Wake up.
Blue jays AAA team will be filled with some serious talent if they keep adding to the mlb roster like this.
No way should anyone go beyond 8 years or $300M for this guy
Sorry fans. Slow day. Not one ML free agent signing
When the effing Blue Jays are spending more than the NFL Salary Cap, you need an MLB Salary Cap.
Why?
Because it’s out of control. NFL rosters are twice as big and the league pulls in multiple times more revenue. It’s very obvious that a few MLB teams are exploiting the local TV revenue loophole, and that will cause fans of other teams to gradually lose interest. The Washington Generals don’t have a fanbase. League is being saved by the fact that all the big spenders are in the coastal divisions so the low revenue teams in the Centrals can still win something, but that’s weird too.
Just do the effing cap and floor. Everyone wins, including the players.
How is that remotely logical? Apples and Oranges don’t add up to Cherries.
Revenue is up. Viewership is up. Baseball isn’t in danger. And the players will NEVER accept a cap.
It’s about getting fans to believe it’s justified to get the sport back on the field after a lockout. They are playing for hearts and minds in the lead up to the next lockout. Seamaholic is probably going to be someone who says it as loud as possible because his heart and mind are already made up. He’s saying just submit.
“We’re out of control! Stop us before we spend again!”
Approximately zero fans should believe this crocodile tears act. The number who do is pretty remarkable. The owners will thank them, I’m sure.
NFL has like 18 games. MLB has 162. Same size stadiums.
NFL fills them up every week. MLB fills them up a few times each year, the rest of the time half empty or even more some places that have no hope.
You didn’t see Rogers center from June on last year did you?
They should just sign Tucker and Bichette. My Yankees don’t seem to wanna bring in anybody this off-season and somebody has to challenge the LAD
I just don’t see the type of return that should warrant a 10/350-400M contract. I don’t think he’s going to produce a 7-8 WAR season. Like he is a good player, but a 4 to 5.5 bWAR. If it was a shorter deal, I think 30-40 AAV would make sense like a 5 year or 6 with an opt out in there. But not a premium position, some injuries the last 2 years, going into year 29. If it was 10/275M, I think that’s a reasonable offer in today’s game for a guy that isn’t franchise altering, but could be the 2nd best player in your lineup.
My guess is that what you’re talking here is what’s being talked about with the Tucker and Bo agents — I think where they’re going is 99% done but the contract remuneration fine print is still being negotiated… Perhaps including issues around a strike/lock-out…
I think it has more to do with deferrals thank anything else. They are trying to reduce the hit this year until the cbt number becomes more manageable in the next couple of years.
300 mill payroll and I feel spoiled as an A’s fan and their payroll hovering around $100 mill
When did the blue jays rob a bank? Where all this extra cash come from?
It’s been reported they made $50+ million on the playoff run (they own the Canadian tv network that broadcasts there games….meaing they were able to increase ad spends for the playoffs, and also owned the Canadian broadcast, so they while we all got fox or whoever ran the World Series we also had an amazing local feed with Buck and Dan broadcasting…..all with premium ad spots)
Plus their owner is legit a massive corporation. The jays represent less than 1% of their actual operating expenses…..the jays budget is a rounding error for them.
Over 100 million according to an article yesterday.
Haven’t seen the article, but $100 million actually seems light. Rogers’ Q3 media revenue was up $156 million from 2024, which they attributed almost entirely to the Jays. That means the Jays were generating close to an extra $50 million a month from July to September on top of whatever they made in 2024. Even if revenue tripled yoy, which seems unlikely, then they were still pulling in $75 million a month. If it doubled yoy, which is more plausible, then it was already $100 million/month.
You have to figure that rose quite a bit further in October when they were getting record audiences (with the caveat that there are fewer games played than a regular season month). So $150 million seems like a low end but fairer estimate of what they likely made in October.
The Jays hosted the most possible playoff games, and ticket revenue for home playoff games goes directly to the team.
The list prices on playoff tickets everywhere were/are astronomical, even before hitting the secondary market. If the avg list price on a WS ticket was $1000 USD, multiply that by 44,000 x 4. Four LCS games too, probably $250-300 avg list price.
As a Jays fan since 1977, and I have four adult sons that are all avid jays fans, and though we love Bo Bichette as a valuable contributor to our team, to try to balance that against turning down signing Kyle Tucker , that would be ludicrous. Bo has gained weight, cannot really run the bases, has to hit a double to get a single, and has seen too much time away due to injuries becoming an annual occurrence… The Jays’ window-of-opportunity to fight for a World Series, is NOW… Bo’s ego is bruised at losing his shortstop position, but having more errors than any other shortstop in the MLB is proof of his declining abilities, and it’s only getting worse. It’s time to make this divorce final… Tucker it is, because this is a BUSINESS, and absolutely not a guaranteed place of decline for Bo Bichette…
Does anyone other than Toronto want to sign big time free agents? Something has to give if the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets can’t sign them all. Jays seem to be in in everyone.
The nature of the screwed up system at this point has made this off-season a rude awakening for some guys. The aforementioned teams were complicit in making it so.
He has an opt out clause after 2027. So teams need to be wary of that.
Tucker reminds me of someone like a JD Drew or Jason Bay. Good player, but not exciting. I would not give him $300 million.
Tucker has already matched Bay’s entire career’s bWAR total. He’s more talented than both players.
I think the Jays are just messing with the other teams, in terms of Tucker, but I could see them offering a Bergman like opt out package that might only offer short-term luxury tax hurt. I’m sure a lot of teams are willing to pay big for the next couple years.
Offer him opt-outs and see where it goes
They might have to fight with the Giants over him.
Still pursuing him, haven’t they caught him yet? This is the slowest chase since Michael Palin’s Otto was chasing Kevin Kline with a steamroller in Fish Called Wanda
Hesitant to give Bichette a long term deal but ok with Tucker? Not getting the logic as both have fairly extensive injury histories
The problem with Bichette is other than the hit skill, his other skills are deteriorating. He still has 20-30 HR power and 40+ doubles. He used to steal bases and his high was 25 a few years ago but that has completely fallen off the map.
Whereas Tucker still has all of the 5 tools at average to elite levels
Bichette and Bellinger would cost about what Tucker wants.
What is Tucker asking for?
Tired of the wrong analysis concerning Nathan Lukas. The continued focus on letting go of Lukas is completely unnecessary as he played LF during the Mariners division series just fine and can play all OF positions.
Loperfido (LF) is the one on the edge as he has no runway to play. A fine player just for depth on our bench but would be a better trade than Lukas who has been a clutch hitter on our way to the WS. Both are left hitting batters.
Lukas is also a step up from Schneider in terms of WAR and BA so it seems odd to throw him under the bus when he’s doing so well and there are two players below his stats.
I think it just comes down to writers not knowing the team well. Which would also explain how Kirk was robbed of a gold glove award
Schneider can play both infield and outfield so he probably is the one they keep
I’m more tired of the wrong spelling of Lukes..:D
whoops!
Lukes had slightly more WAR but also played twice as much. Schneider is a better hitter and mashed RHPs last year. He’s also younger and more versatile defensively.
Bichette is slowing down, and I don’t mean during his injuries. He used to steal bases for about two years, but that has disappeared. The -13 OAA for second worst SS in the league is offset by his great at bats. The best thing he did for his cause in free agency was to play 2nd during the WS. This is really where he should go while the hitting and arm are still useful.
I’m actually been warming up to Tucker signing instead of Bichette. Can still run and steal. While touted as RF can play all OF positions, been steady for a few years now and hopefully won’t break down the moment we sign him *cough* Santander *cough*. We like that a player has a main position but can also be a super utility player as the needs change. Really worked out for us with multiple players like that.
Also it’ll signal to the upgraded AL East we’re going back to the WS.
Depends where Bichette signs. I hope it’s the NL so we don’t have to face him for the AL East brawl
Bichette is the sports car everyone loves but if you drive it too hard it breaks down a lot.
Tucker also with some injuries but overall a dependable Volvo ready to go at a consistent level with occasional streaks of greatness. Also with access to our amazing hitting coach maybe that greatness gets even greater.
Maybe I’m getting old but the Volvo is starting to look pretty good
I really think Tucker is waiting out Bellinger. If Bellinger is holding out for 6 years and say 150m then Rucker can turn around and look for 8 years at over 200m. Now if Tucker signs first and takes less years with opt outs that destroys Bellinger chance of getting a long term deal because even though Bellinger is more versatile, Tucker is a much better offensive threat and a year younger.
You may be right although there are several holes in your logic;
Yes Belli is a year older than Tucker but Belli played 150+ games while
Tucker was hurt and only played 78 games in 24 and 136 last season….. .is this a sign of things to come?
Secondly, if a team pulls out the stops and offers Tucker 8 years and $$ 200 Million (his asking price) if I’m a GM I’m not giving him opt outs….he’d better be satisfied with the team, roster, life in that city…etc….opt outs is you give him what he’s asked for…..
Finally, Belli, probably isn’t going to get 6/150….the Yankees have drawn a line hopefully either in max years, or max salary over the 6 years….if he finds a better deal….so be it…..the Stanton deal and the fact that he continually gets hurt every year as he grows older and can’t play the field any longer continues to plague the Yanks and limit their roster flexibility…..hopefully a lesson for Cashman…..
TOR would be hard pressed to sign Tucker even for a single season because as explained in the article the CBT (luxury tax) would make it an irrational financial decision that the Rogers corporate board would never approve.
In addition to the CBT that would require the Jays to pay roughly double any AAV but then there’s the foreign exchange rate to manage. Blue Jay revenues are in Canadian dollars but they pay U.S. players in U.S. dollars – FX conversion rate would add another 38%-41% to any AAV. On top of that the Tucker Qualifying Offer (QO), loss of draft positions and loss of international pool dollars. Many front offices value these at another $10M-$15M (one time value). Just paying Tucker for a 1 year pillow deal would cost the Jays $100M+ in Canadian dollars
Good analysis stat……not to mention the tax ramifications of playing 81 games in a foreign country and the lifestyle difference in Canada v USA…(heath-care).
Hey Rocky….what’s this lifestyle difference you talk of…?….like the average Canadian living longer than an amerikan because of a higher U.S. mortality from chronic diseases, substance use, COVID-19, and homicide, despite similar living standards.
Mrs. Tucker: “Honey, why are there so many birds in the front yard?”
Land Tucker and then trade Barger, Clement, Nimmala and picks for Marte. Then you win a world series or at least position yourself again for that serious run.
no way those players are still under team control
It’s a Spiderman Standoff where they all point at each other