Ken Davidoff of The New York Post ranked the top 30 free agents by value, with Michael Bourn topping the list. Davidoff predicts the outfielder will sign a five-year, $85MM deal with the Nationals. Here's the latest from the only league Bourn has known as a big leaguer, the NL…
- “Attractive and realistic … Guys we want and think we can get. We went through a list of 40 pitchers to come up with 8-10 we’re really trying to get," said Padres GM Josh Byrnes to Bill Center of The San Diego Union-Tribune. San Diego figures to focus on arms this winter, and Center believes Dan Haren is near the top of that list.
- Jason Giambi will still deciding whether to play or manage next season, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). The Rockies are only considering him as a manager, however.
- Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com looked at Cody Ross as a potential free agent target for the Phillies. In our Offseason Outlook, Ben Nicholson-Smith noted that the Fightin's figure to seek outfield help this winter.
- The Cardinals have had discussions about expanding Jim Edmonds' role in the organization, reports Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch (on Twitter). That could mean more time in Spring Training or something else for the team's long-time center fielder, who currently serves as a special instructor.
The person below me will reply with “Binders full of pitchers.”
Binders full of pitchers.
If what the new owners are saying is true and they are willing to spend, there is really no reason Haren, Lohse, Kuroda and Jackson shouldn’t all be on the list. The one guy who probably isn’t on the list is Greinke.
I can give a very good reason why Kuroda and Lohse aren’t on that list….
I’ll give you a hint. It has a 13th in it.
We’ll see. I should point out that I’m not suggesting they will wind up with any of them (Kuroda or Lohse). I’m just saying there has been a lot of talk about the Padres management liking Kuroda. I believe they made a run at him last off-season.
There’s no way they are giving up the 13th overall pick in the draft for Kuroda or Lohse. Write that down.
WTH? The Padres are not going to give up a pick to get a 34 year old who is asking for 5 years $75+ million or 38 yr old pitcher AND give him MORE than $13.3 million. Whatever MMJ you are smoking, it must be the chronic from hades.
Also pretty sure that Kuroda wants to stick with a contender.
Any team considering Haren better take a real good look at his medical records, then look again, then only offer an incentive-laden contract.
Attractive is key word, realistic means no Grienke.
I think Ross makes sense as a target for the Phillies. I wouldn’t bang down his door to bring him here but something like 3 years – $21 million might make sense.
For me, the most attractive thing about him is the fact that he doesn’t cost a pick and is relatively cheap, which would allow the Phillies to potentially go after a center fielder (Pagan’s my #1 choice at this point mainly becuase, again he wouldn’t cost us the #16 overall pick) AND potentially have enough money left to sign a 3rd baseman or Elite set up guy.
Bourn as best free agent value?!? What does that mean?
I wouldn’t touch him if I was a GM…
He didn’t even win the Gold Glove. Clearly he sucks.
Guess we should completely ignore anything Davidoff says from this point on.
Davidoff is talking about Ethier type money and almost everyone agrees that signing was a mistake by the Dodgers.
So lets compare the two.
Ethier had a 129 OPS+ from 2009-2011 with 65 home runs and a .844 OPS.
Bourn is a player who will be 30 yrs old to start the season and whose greatest strength is what he can do with his legs. A player that has had a 98 OPS+ over the past 3 seasons, 13 home runs and a .722 OPS.
Dangerous signing for whichever team takes the leap.
Certainly not the top free agent.
And then he says Melky “Steroid Boy” Cabrera is the #2 Free agent. And Torii Hunter #3?
Is this a comedy act? Is he trying to make us laugh? Should he be opening at the Comedy Shoppe?
I hope so, because those ideas are laughable if he is serious.
I agree, Torii Hunter getting 2/28. Hunter really benefited off of a high BABIP and it would be a mistake to even go over $10M aav.
I’m pretty sure Davidoff is pulling this whole article out of thin air.
He predicts swisher at 5/70 which is fine, but it is right after Upton at 6/100. 2/28 for Torii Hunter? C’mon. He had a good year, but he greatly benefited from a high BABIP while seeing higher k rate and lower bb rate.
5/85 is a disaster for Bourn. He is a decent CFer, but not at that kind of money.
Bourn is more than a ‘decent CFer’…….though I agree, he shouldn’t get that kind of money.
Please no Ross in Philly. Please go for Pagan. He may end up having the most value for the cost of any free agent this off-season. $10M/year for him would be perfect (he’ll likely get 11-11.5M)
davidoff says the Nats will sign michael bourn AND nick swisher? I guess that means good bye to two of mike morse, jayson werth and bryce harper? And BJ Upton getting 100 million dollars?
That davidoff article mad no sense with the deals let alone the destinations. Swisher to the nats so he can play first? Upton to the phillies because they train in Clearwater during spring training? Who is this guy
How is a guy like BJ Upton worth any more than league minimum? He strikes out a ton and hits under 220.
Well maybe since he has never hit below .220, in fact his lowest BA was 2 years ago when he hit .237, this past year however he was .247. However he also has become a pretty standard 20+hr 30+sb guy these past few seasons. And the fact he is entering his age 28 season. But you know making up facts to slam a player is always good.
I hope the Nationals do give Michael Bourn a 5 yr/85M contract.
Sincerely,
Braves Fans everywhere
All things considered, i would be surprised if the nats end up with Bourne. For his price and our other options (both short term and long term) it really doesn’t make enough sense.
Bourne = Figgins 2.0. Exciting no power speed guys with rapid decline phases. Scary thing about Bourne is that he strikes out 50% more often than Figgins ever did. 155 times last year. I think Bourne is in line to be a massive overpay at any rate.
Pagan posted 10.4 WAR for the Mets from 2008-2011 in 393 games. Adjust that for a full season (150 games) and that’s an average of 4.0 WAR. He then posted 4.0 WAR this season for SF in a full season. The only two full seasons he’s played (2010 NY and 2012 SF) he’s posted WARs of 5.1 and 4.0 respectively. In 2009 he posted 3.9 WAR in just 88 games.
I think it’s safe to say that Pagan is a 4.0 WAR player at this point in his career. Following the $4.5M/1 win rule, Pagan is a $18M player. Above average fielder, he’s got the speed and power, hits for high BABIP consistently. He’s worth it.
Looking statistically, Ross since 2008 has posted 8.5 WAR in 700 games. Scaled down to 150 that’s 1.8 WAR. Even worse, since 2010 his 150-game WAR average is 0.8. Ross is worth about $5M AAV considering his recent history and the heavy outfield FA class. Unfortunately he’ll get much more than that. Good move by the Sox letting him go.