The Padres entered camp with Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove penciled into the top three rotation spots. They felt reasonably confident that Randy Vásquez would claim the fourth starter role. They took a volume approach to the fifth starter job, signing a handful of veterans to cheap free agent deals.
Musgrove is working back from a 2024 Tommy John surgery that wiped out all of last season. King was limited to 15 starts last year by a nerve issue in his shoulder and a knee injury. While King is pitching without any restrictions this spring, the Padres are playing things more cautiously with Musgrove. The righty last pitched in a game on March 4, when he threw 60 pitches in an exhibition game against the British World Baseball Classic team.
Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Musgrove has thrown one bullpen session within the past week. The Padres are understandably bringing him along slowly and haven’t announced when he’ll make his next game appearance. Both Acee and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com suggest he may not be fully built up by Opening Day.
A brief season-opening injured list stint wouldn’t necessarily represent a setback. The Padres will need to keep an eye on Musgrove’s workload over the course of the season. They have two off days within the first eight days of the regular season, meaning they could theoretically get by with a four-man rotation if Musgrove had a minimal IL stint. The likelier outcome is that they’d turn to one of their depth starters to fill out a five-man starting staff.
That could open an opportunity for Walker Buehler, who is in camp as a non-roster invite. If there’s only one rotation spot available, that’s likelier to go to Germán Márquez. Márquez signed a big league contract and is guaranteed $1.75MM. He’s going to make the team, and the Padres don’t have a ton of roster flexibility in the bullpen to carry him as a long reliever.
Buehler can opt out at the end of Spring Training if the Padres don’t add him to the roster. Buehler has made two starts this spring. He has allowed four runs in 6 2/3 innings with a solid 6:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Márquez has recorded five punchouts without a walk while allowing three runs across five frames. Marco Gonzales, in camp on a minor league deal, has given up five runs despite recording eight strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. JP Sears is on the 40-man roster but has had a rough spring and has a minor league option remaining, so he’s probably ticketed for Triple-A El Paso regardless of Musgrove’s status.
Honestly
Padres should probably piggyback King and Musgrove just for the sake of keeping them as healthy as possible
Piggyback Musgrove with Hart
Piggyback King with Matsui or Peralta
3-4 innings each until you can get to Morgan Estrada Morejon Miller
What’s the max number of pitchers you can carry?
Anyways
Pivetta
King/Peralta or even Jackson wolf who’s looked good
Musgrove / Hart
Vasquez
And whoever wins the 5 spot
Great idea for a month w a lot of off days, but late may/ June the pen will be on fumes
I see it as a two fold solution
Do it early so they have Musgrove and King have additional time to ramp up work load but at the same time towards end of the season if you’re in playoff contention might be time to reconsider implementing piggyback so down the stretch they’re not worked too much heading into the playoffs
Hart is barely spot starter territory, I would prefer not to give him a regular turn in the rotation even if it was only for 6-9 outs. Plus he has an option remaining, may as well put it to good use. Good news IMO for Gillaspie and Buehler making the team. They will have one more 40-man spot after Yu goes to 60-day.
I miss Yu already.
Doing some quick math
162 games x 9 innings is 1458. Call it 1500 to account for extras
1500 / 5 starters in 300 innings each if you pitch complete games but say
Pivetta gives them 160 innings
Vasquez gives them 120 innings
5th starter spot gives them 150 innings
Pen wise say
Miller 70 innings
Adam 70 innings
Morejon 75 innings
Estrada 75 innings
That’s 720 innings so far
Say King/Peralta combo covers 160 innings. Same for Musgrove/Hart that’s another 320 for 1040 innings
That leaves 460 innings to be split amongst
Morgan Yuki Gillespie Rodriguez plus whoever they option down for “rest”
Is it “doable” all season probably not but is it close enough they could conceivably do it most the season? Yes.
This is way to much math for a modern baseball pitching staff, you have simply assumed wayyyy to much, injuries will make this look foolish by may, I get what your driving at on paper however.
what a mess
Yikes
I know it’s a new season clouding my mind, but I don’t hate the arms at the back of the rotation. But not great news coupled with Pivetta’s dead arm. Really could use 450 IP from the top 3. Canning’s gonna be a meaningful reinforcement, but they can’t be too far behind the 8-ball before he gets there.
Sounds like a rotation held together by spit and bailing wire to me.
But at least they have a lot of shortstops.
There was a time when Morejon was being developed as a starter. I would have stretched him out last season in a similar way the D-Backs did with Ryne Nelson a couple years ago, to prepare him for 2026. He could always go back to his reliever role.
No news is good news I suppose. But no news also isn’t much of an update story either.
JP Sears really does not want that last rotation spot.
He’ll definitely get his chance to break OD next year.
Preller may end up using the Dodgers’ frequent strategy of phantom/borderline Injury Reserve List assignments.
Exactly. I mean there is legit injuries being managed here, but i do think this is a version of that. It’s a smart strategy if you’re hoping to make it thru october.
This isn’t news, really. We knew they are slow playing Joe. All this did is clarified how they planned on keeping Buehler and Marquez on the opening day roster along with Marinaccio in the bullpen who is out of options (and had a nice game for Italy last night).
There’s plenty of arms to fill Musgroves spot with long guys like Hart and Gillaspie, Sears and Mckenzie in AAA, Waldron if he starts on the IL and or passes waivers and is sent to AAA, and Buehler and Marquez in the 4/5 slots. There’s a lot of league average in that group, but there’s bound to be a couple solid contributors.
Joe will be fine, but I dont think he pitches more than 120 innings this year.
I feel like the Padres need a back up plan for the back up plan but think if they avoid the temptation of moving Miller, Morejon, and even Rodriguez to the rotation that all will work out well.
They have to keep the bullpen strong. Id even save Gonzalez for the bullpen, as he has shown the ability this spring to rack K’s.
Canning, Sears, Marquez and Vasquez can get them innings. Brito might surprise this season. Cant count on Musgrove but even if King flails all season, and Pivetta regresses, if they keep the bullpen together and strong, with their offense, they can find a way to win games.
Randy Vasquez will likely be our best starting pitcher this year. Which is saying more about the rest of our rotation than Randy himself. We will need him to at least go deep into games while Niebla provides pitch limits for both Musgrove and King for who knows how long.
This rotation is going to tax the bullpen. I hope Marquez can pitch at least six innings most starts. The bullpen will need it. I do not know what to expect from Buehler. My heart goes out to him though. He mentioned that his pitching elbow had pain only two weeks previous to beginning Spring Training games. That’s not good to hear. And if Pivetta doesn’t regress too much that will be great. I’m hoping Waldron can (if we somehow keep him around) be a decent option for us. Probably will need to put him on the inactive list (numbers crunch) to start the season though. This is a patch-work rotation. I just hope we have enough spots for everyone to keep them around. Probably not likely.