Latest On Padres’ Rotation

The Padres entered camp with Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove penciled into the top three rotation spots. They felt reasonably confident that Randy Vásquez would claim the fourth starter role. They took a volume approach to the fifth starter job, signing a handful of veterans to cheap free agent deals.

Musgrove is working back from a 2024 Tommy John surgery that wiped out all of last season. King was limited to 15 starts last year by a nerve issue in his shoulder and a knee injury. While King is pitching without any restrictions this spring, the Padres are playing things more cautiously with Musgrove. The righty last pitched in a game on March 4, when he threw 60 pitches in an exhibition game against the British World Baseball Classic team.

Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that Musgrove has thrown one bullpen session within the past week. The Padres are understandably bringing him along slowly and haven’t announced when he’ll make his next game appearance. Both Acee and AJ Cassavell of MLB.com suggest he may not be fully built up by Opening Day.

A brief season-opening injured list stint wouldn’t necessarily represent a setback. The Padres will need to keep an eye on Musgrove’s workload over the course of the season. They have two off days within the first eight days of the regular season, meaning they could theoretically get by with a four-man rotation if Musgrove had a minimal IL stint. The likelier outcome is that they’d turn to one of their depth starters to fill out a five-man starting staff.

That could open an opportunity for Walker Buehler, who is in camp as a non-roster invite. If there’s only one rotation spot available, that’s likelier to go to Germán Márquez. Márquez signed a big league contract and is guaranteed $1.75MM. He’s going to make the team, and the Padres don’t have a ton of roster flexibility in the bullpen to carry him as a long reliever.

Buehler can opt out at the end of Spring Training if the Padres don’t add him to the roster. Buehler has made two starts this spring. He has allowed four runs in 6 2/3 innings with a solid 6:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Márquez has recorded five punchouts without a walk while allowing three runs across five frames. Marco Gonzales, in camp on a minor league deal, has given up five runs despite recording eight strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. JP Sears is on the 40-man roster but has had a rough spring and has a minor league option remaining, so he’s probably ticketed for Triple-A El Paso regardless of Musgrove’s status.