The Atlanta rotation has had a rough go of it this spring. Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep both hit the injured list before Spring Training games even began, and now they’ve been followed by the loss of lefty Joey Wentz to a season-ending ACL tear. The timelines for Waldrep and Schwellenbach aren’t yet clear, but they figure to miss significant time following surgeries to remove loose bodies from their elbows. (Schwellenbach is already on the 60-day IL.) That leaves the Braves with a lot of uncertainty in the rotation. Grant Holmes and Reynaldo Lopez are coming off injury-marred 2025 seasons, but they’ll be relied on for mid-rotation innings behind Chris Sale and Spencer Strider.
There’s still one rotation spot open. Wentz was in position to make a play for that spot and had a decent spring showing: two runs, three hits, four walks, one hit batter, six punchouts in 5 2/3 innings (3.18 ERA). His injury opens the competition up to a larger group.
The on-paper favorite is likely to be right-hander Bryce Elder, who made 28 starts for the Braves last year. Elder is still just 27 years old and was an All-Star back in 2023 thanks to a big first half, but in his past 52 starts he’s posted a 5.63 ERA with a below-average 18.4% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate. Metrics like SIERA (4.56) and FIP (4.76) have been a bit better kinder, but Elder is approaching 300 innings with an ERA north of 5.50 over the past two and a half calendar years.
Elder’s status as the presumptive favorite is more about incumbency, being on the 40-man roster and being out of minor league options. He hasn’t made a strong case this spring, turning in a lackluster 6.48 ERA in three starts. That leaves the door wide open for someone else to grab the job.
Left-hander José Suarez is also out of minor league options and on the 40-man roster. He has an uneven big league track record but pitched well between 61 2/3 minor league innings and 19 1/3 major league frames for Atlanta last winter. He’s allowed four runs in 6 2/3 spring innings. Suarez gave the Angels 207 1/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball in 2021-22 before being tagged for a 6.91 ERA in 86 innings across a pair of injury-marred seasons in 2023-24.
The most prominent non-roster veteran in camp is southpaw Martín Pérez. The lefty has allowed only one run in five spring innings and is coming off a season where he posted decent numbers (3.54 ERA, 4.24 FIP) in 56 innings for the White Sox. Flexor and shoulder injuries shortened his 2025 season, and the days of Pérez’s blip of All-Star-caliber work with the Rangers (2.89 ERA, 3.9 fWAR in 2022) are likely behind him. Still, he has the potential to be an effective back-end starter.
Those aren’t the only options for the role. Veteran Carlos Carrasco is in camp, but after posting a 9.88 ERA in three starts for Atlanta last season and allowing nine runs on 11 hits in 6 1/3 spring innings this year, he seems unlikely to be the top choice. Didier Fuentes made his MLB debut last year and has tossed four scoreless innings this spring, but he won’t celebrate his 21st birthday until June and might be better served with more time in the minors. Top pitching prospect JR Ritchie enjoyed a strong season at Triple-A last year and has looked good so far this spring (3.38 ERA in eight innings). He’s not yet on the 40-man roster.
Another possibility that can’t be entirely ruled out is an external addition. Lucas Giolito remains available and seems like an obvious fit — despite an apparent lack of interest on Atlanta’s part thus far. Other veterans like Tyler Anderson and Patrick Corbin remain unsigned, too. Any of those pitchers could be added to the mix with the intent of them eventually taking over the fifth starter job, but the team would likely need to trade for a player that’s already been pitching for another club in order to add someone who will immediately be ready to join the rotation at the start of the season. A free agent like Giolito would surely need to get work in at extended Spring Training at this point.
How do MLBTR readers think the Braves will round out their rotation? Will they give the job to Elder and hope for better results than last year? Will they go with a young prospect like Fuentes or Ritchie, or perhaps a veteran like Pérez or Carrasco? Perhaps they’ll eschew all those options for an external addition? Vote now in the poll below:
I voted for Elder, but it truly pained me. They should sign Giolito. Perez and Holmes won’t make it through an entire season. They need more options.
I’m honestly very concerned now that Giolito has not been signed I think his physical is pretty worrisome. This is pure speculation.
Go – Giolito pulling a fast one on the Red Sox doesn’t help either.
Same. Nothing short of shocking that we’ve gotten here. If ‘25 didn’t teach AA the importance of depth, he’ll never learn.
@chief
Projected rotation options throughout the offseason:
Sale, Swelly, Strider, Lopez, Holmes, Waldrep, Elder, Wentz, Suarez, Fuentes, Ritchie
They had 11 options. Elder and Wentz are out of options so adding a guy like Giolitto, Bassitt, etc does nothing to improve depth. AA was never going to stash both of them in the bullpen so one of them would have to go. You add a more expensive option that isn’t much better than what you have and then subtract a less expensive option. Makes zero sense. This is why all offseason AA said he would only add a “playoff starter” (TOR). If you are going to subtract a starter to add a starter he wanted it to be one considerably better. The only FA I saw as a possiblity was Ranger Suarez. Wouldn’t touch Cease or Valdez. But even if he signed Ranger, if everyone stayed healthy, it would not have improved depth. Kinda hard to predict the Waldrep and Wentz injuries. And the way the last two years have gone for the Braves, Ranger probably would’ve been battling his recurring back issues.
This obsession for Bryce Elder from a lot of Braves fans is mind boggling to me. This guy has over a 5.50 ERA since the All Star break of 2023..pretty substantial sample size we’re talking about here. What’s gonna happen here?? All of a sudden he’s gonna turn into a quality pitcher by magic??? Why are we so damn worried about him being out of options?? Who’s desperate enough to scoop up a 5.50 ERA starting pitcher???
Thank you! Finally someone else who doesn’t understand how anyone can support someone who is this bad (yet pull out pitchforks for other players) and doesn’t even give you a chance to win. We have more than enough of a sample size to see he’s just not good.
Look at elders game log. When he’s right he is solid. 50% of 2025 starts were quality starts. And his salary is less than $1M.
If Elder hits DFA list teams would be lining up for him. Look at the 2nd half of last season plus he is now hitting 96MPH consistently and is only making league minimum?
Elder is a #5 starter with potential to be a #3 that could start a playoff game. Doesn’t mean he will hit that potential, but a lot of teams would like a chance at that gamble.
No…Elder is not hitting 96mph consistently….you just made that up.
4.55 FIP over that time. That puts a .95 chunk of that ERA on the defense behind him.
He is not a great pitcher, but he is fine as a #5/#6 and he eats innings. His FIP being far below his ERA two seasons in a row indicates that some movement in his ERA towards his FIP should be expected.
You complained, but offered no alternatives. What do you suggest AA should do and why exactly would your suggestion lead to more wins?
In his last start vs Tampa, Elder sat 91.7 mph. He never hit 96 in that game. He topped out at 93.5 vs Vilade in the 2nd.
Bassitt’s durability would have been a perfect fit for our injury-prone staff. My main complaint is AA spent $38mm on our bullpen, $20mm on a SS, another $17mm on Yaz and Dubon yet not a PLUGGED NICKEL on a history-proven injury prone rotation!?? Simply mind numbing….
Of those 11, how many are experienced major leaguers, and of those, how many don’t have serious checkered injury histories. Of the most proven bunch, Sale has the best injury history. SALE. Your list has eleven starters on it. But how many are both decent big leaguers AND have not missed MONTHS at the big league level in the last year? It’s zero. None of them meet that requirement. And it’s a good thing to start with if you’re interested in a pennant.
So just throw him in the dumpster or give him away for nothing??? Genius!!!
The Yaz signing was odd at the time, now it seems like AA was expecting something to happen with Profar. Didn’t work for Kim though unless Dubon was expected to start if Kim got injured. At the time of the signing, nobody believed that AA wanted Dubon as his starting shortstop so he decided an overpay was necessary. As for the bullpen both relievers have been solid closers, so not really bad signings. Unfortunately AA seems set to stay under that 2nd luxury tax threshhold, so that’s why no investment in a higher cost starting pitcher and the Braves didn’t have the prospects to make a trade for Peralta. So possibly missed playoffs again for Atlanta.
I have ZERO issues with all those signings…if only used va righties Yaz will be very productive….bullpen is now an asset …Dubon provides depth all over the field and Kim a significant upgrade over what we had. My issue is starting pitching was a priority before Schwelly and Waldrep went down and we did nothing to improve there. We can try and convince ourselves that all of Sale, Lopez and Holmes are staying healthy all season or that Elder, Suarez, Perez and Carrasco are quality pitchers until the cows come home…but saying it won’t make it happen… history is not on our side. Did we really need Dubon over a starting pitcher?? Or Kinley over a starting pitcher?! I would argue we needed a durable quality SP over a second closer for the bullpen…
@Outfield Fly Rule: I still haven’t seen a single person on this site—or any other site—-claim that “Elder, Suarez, Perez, and Carrasco are quality pitchers.” Kinley’s salary is $4.25M. What starting pitcher do you get w/that? Dubon’s making $6.1M. Subtract Allen’s MLB minimum contract from that total. What starter do you get for $5M? Besides that, where would they be w/out Dubon after the Kim injury. Stuck playing the worst offensive player in MLB at SS again. So you’re basically arguing for no upgrade to bench depth (Dubon) and zero upgrades to the pen so they could’ve signed Giolito or Littell? Stop claiming that those of us who didn’t want the lousy options you’ve been promoting didn’t want more starting pitching. Many of us did if it could have been accomplished via trade. Acting like there’s no limit to rational spending isn’t realistic.
@Nashville…and what about the $16mm each for two closers?? Yes, I’ve also been advocating a trade of some sort for a starting pitcher but the clock is ticking. At this point it’s not hard to imagine waking up in mid May with our #3 starting pitcher being Bryce Elder and I don’t even want to think about 4 and 5. We clearly had the resources and the go ahead to spend this off season and haven’t addressed a major issue???? I call that a gross misuse of resources. Hopefully AA has a plan better than waiting for Giolito(or someone worse) to drop in our lap for $5mm….???? The durable Bassitt made so much sense to me for this staff..even at 18-19mm. I guess we can squint our eyes hard enough to see both Ritchie and Fuentes pitch well enough to avoid the typical bumps and bruises rookies experience but do you really want to count on that?????
“…..gross misuse of resources……” You’re entitled to your opinion. A good pen that covers up the shortcomings of the back of a rotation is a viable plan. It’s all about getting quality innings. The Braves have a cheap back of the rotation. AA chose to spend on the pen.
Hopefully we’ll have enough leads for the bullpen to hang on to for the team to stay relevant in the NL East.
We can both agree on that!
Summed up concisely, he doesn’t care. His job is budget police in charge. That’s number one priority, everything else is far down the list.
Pitcher A: 4.17 FIP, 5.06 xERA, 19.7% K rate, 9.1% BB rate
Pitcher B: 4.55 FIP, 4.73 xERA, 19.3% K rate, 7.5% BB rate
Pitcher A is 2025 Lucas Giolito, pitcher B is 2025 Bryce Elder.
Here’s their projections for this season:
Giolito: 4.65 ERA, 4.58 FIP in 138 innings
Elder: 4.38 ERA, 4.10 FIP in 152 innings
They can sign Giolito, but it needs to be both cheap and with the understanding that if he’s healthy, there’s a good chance he won’t be any better than Elder
Perfectly suitable 5th starter.
Using a single season always is questionable when trying to make comparisons.
Giolito ended last season injured, which seems to be the largest hangup in his signing with anyone this offseason, and has thrown just 329 innings over the last 3 seasons with a 4.78 FIP.
Elder has thrown 380 innings for the Braves with a 4.49 FIP over the past 3 seasons even though he spent most of 2024, 17 starts and 101 IP, in Gwinnett.
Giolito is not going to sign cheap enough to be as cheap as Elder.
This isn’t just about Giolito vs. Elder it’s about a lack of depth options and the health risks of their entire staff. Holmes had a partially torn UCL. Sale has dealt with injuries most of the past decade. Lopez missed all of last season. Schwellenbach and Waldrep will be out until late June/ early July best case scenario, with both coming off elbow surgery and no spring training. Fuentes and Ritchie are still inexperienced prospects. Perez doesn’t inspire much confidence. Carrasco shouldn’t even be under consideration. That is an extremely volatile group. Giolito would be cheap with some upside at this point. I’d sign him and Corbin. But since they haven’t been in spring training, I wouldn’t expect much from either until May. Braves started last season horribly and dug a deep hole early and never recovered. Avoiding a similar situation should be a much higher priority.
Giolito has not been very good and he has an injury history of his own having missed all of 2024 and ending 2025 injured.
Schwellenbach and Waldrep will certainly get a rehab assignment before returning to the rotation after an extended absence. Both are heads and shoulders better than Giolito.
The rest of the options can hold down the fort until they return.
Giolito will not be cheap. That is why he is still unsigned. Teams looked at his medicals, at the fact he was injured to end the season, at his age, and at his asking price and said no thank. So should the Braves.
I am sure he’s going to be a lot cheaper than people expected at this point. No way to really know the extent of any potential medical issues until he takes a physical.
I came here to say that…it wouldn’t shock me if the signed Giolito, but I believe the Braves are already on the cusp of what they planned for spending wise…hopefully they get their money back for the whole Profar debacle and can use that to sign him for a year.
This question can’t be answered until early April. There is too much of a chance of another injury before then.
Yeah, that is the real issue. There is a tremendous amount of volatility in their entire staff from an injury perspective. That should be addressed immediately. Forget top of rotation starters. They have 2 of those. They need better depth options.
5 starters! Just let Warren Spahn pitch every day, dadgummit.
Spahn’s casketed remains, I bet they could get him cheap, even AA would have to seriously consider that.
I would have to assume Martín Perez he can’t be worse than Elder.
Braves are now taking applications at BombsawayfromAtlantaga.com. Maybe hold a tryout of some sort.. gotta be a Vince Papale out there somewhere. When Lopez and Holmes go down we’re looking at Elder as our #3–yegads!!
Do you think Martin Perez is reconsidering his decision not to invoke his $10m option with the. Chicago White Sox?
It was a mutual option. Do you think the White Sox were going to pick up their half of it? When’s the last time a team and player both picked up a mutual option? Perez took his $1.5M buyout because he knew the Sox weren’t going to pick up their half.
I voted for Elder even though he is not even close to being the best option. But unfortunately, the Braves refuse to move on from him even though it’s painfully obvious he is not an MLB-caliber pitcher. Hopefully, I’m wrong, and they give the job to someone like Ritchie.
They better figure it out soon. There’s now way that rotation makes it through the season without another hickup!
Try the first month.
Both Elder and Perez will make the team- one in the rotation and the other in the bullpen.
Likely Elder with Perez serving a swing role/6th starter if they go with a 6 man rotation
I think its gonna be Richie personally
would be nice if Ritchie gets the 5th starter role, just hope he doesn’t get injured in his first start
3rd place, here they come….
Anyone but elder please. He is unwatchable
I think the real answer to this poll isn’t any one of those pitchers, it will be multiple pitchers through the year. Perez/Elder might be how it starts out but it will change.
The issue isnt really the fifth starter. Bryce Elder is a perfectly fine fifth starter. And of course he’s out of options so he’s not going anywhere.
The real issue is what happens when Holmes or Lopez go down with an injury. It’s just a matter of when.
Probably should have moved Holmes to the bullpen over the winter and signed a #3 starter. But they decided to give 20M to HSK instead.
They felt they needed a shortstop more than they needed a starting pitcher and HSK was the only option (no way they sign Bichette) they felt comfortable overpaying for.
Outside the box pickup- Michael kopech. He’s been a SP before, sign him and stretch him out. A piggy back system of Elder, Lopez and Holmes, Kopech would be enough to get it done while utilizing a rotating long relief man option. Shouldn’t cost much either.
Kopech is still a free agent for a reason. Below is a list of his innings pitched by season:
2018 – 14.1
2019 – Tommy John
2020 – Opted out of COVID season
2021 – 69.1
2022 – 119.1
2023 – 128.1
2024 – 43.2
2025 – 11
You want him to be your 5th starter? Even if the Braves cobble together some kind of opener/bulk situation for him, he has not pitched more than 1 inning per appearance on average over the last 3 years. Over his entire career, he has averaged just 2.23 innings per appearance (411 IP / 184 appearances).
Between Holmes, Lopez,Elder and Kopech that could add up to 250ish inning between the 4. That’s alot of innings the rest of the BP doesn’t have to cover. A split contract for league minimum wouldn’t be a payroll killer either.
I hear Julio Teheran is interested in coming out of retirement… LOL
All teams need 8 or 9 starting pitchers to get through the full season. Carlos Carrasco will also have to play a part at some point, despite some of the braves fans on here insisting otherwise.
They should sign gialito and the Czech pitcher Satoria the wbc. Can never have enough starting pitching.
Even if Giolito’s hurt they should sign him
anyway. He’s Reynaldo Lopez’s lucky charm.
Sale, Strider, Lopez, Holmes, Elder, Suarez, Ritchie, Fuentes, Perez, bullpen games, then go trade for a starter in June or July instead of wasting money on Giolito. And Waldrep and Schwelly could realistically be back by August. They just had loose bodies removed, as far as I know, neither had any structural damage. You hope your top 4 survives at least until you can make a trade for a decent starter. Panic spending on Giolito doesn’t move the needle in the slightest.
They are probably waiting for roster cuts closer to the end of spring training and might pick up one of those pitchers.
Probably right, but they’re not gonna spend a ton of money on a guy who just got cut either. So both could be true. Pick up a starter off the wire at the end of Spring Training but spend most of the Profar money at the deadline
It’s gonna be elder and unless something drastic happens I don’t really think this is a debate. A, they love him despite the fans feelings on him. B, he has a rubber arm and they need stability, and C. For what it’s worth if we truly take the 5th starter spot for what it is, he’s a perfectly fine 5th starter for most teams. He just hurts to watch cause one game he pitch a gem then the next 3 he give up 5 runs to start the game, the struggle through the next two games
How did Suarez throw 19 1/3 innings for Atlanta “last winter”??
I say Elder with a short leash, hoping Perez takes assignment to AAA and gets recalled of Elder gets roughed up a couple of times.
Elder would be a good choice. It’s time to rebuild not spend money. Hopefully this team starts to understand that.
In some way Elder getting shelled and dropping this team further down would make it easier for many you to swallow what needs to happen right now.
Shouldn’t be too hard to have them in 4th place by mid-June at this rate and let’s hope that’s enough to wake the front office up.
I love watching reynaldo lopez pitch but i dont think he is going to make it through the season. He lost all of last year due to exploratory surgery looking for an issue in his shoulder. No issue was found. So if he did not have a injury they could find or would not disclose, then i hope its one a year of rest healed. If not then the underlying issue is still there.
There shouldn’t be a comma before “too.”