The Blue Jays are unlikely to sign a free agent starting pitcher, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. Of greatest consequence, perhaps, Stark says that the team is not likely to land top remaining hurler Ervin Santana.
Though Toronto has long been seen as one of the strongest buyers in the remaining market, Stark explains that the club is steadfastly refusing to increase its offers to meet players' demands, as the Orioles did to sign Ubaldo Jimenez. One source said that the Jays would not sign Santana unless he "fall[s] in their lap."
Instead, GM Alex Anthopoulos is expected to allow several of the organization's young arms to compete for a rotation slot. The top Toronto baseball man said that, while the team would "love to add a starter to maintain [the team's] depth," it remained "comfortable with what we have." Anthopoulos continued: "If the right guy were to come along at the right price, we're definitely open-minded to the idea of adding one more starting pitcher."
Good
Pretty much. Ubaldo and Santana aren’t fits in Toronto.
Imagine your car gets a flat on the side of the road and all you can find nearby is a bike tire.
Couldn’t agree more.
Why aren’t they fits in Toronto? Santana’s HR numbers are way overblown. He’s only 0.2 HR/9 over league average. Take out a freakish 2012 and it’s only 0.1 HR/9. That’s like 3 HR’s over a season. He’s a solid league average SP and if the Jays don’t sign him they’re crazy. Of course, it might be him saying no, so there is that.
Don’t you think the Jays have enough in-house options or at least potential options to provide you with at least league-average sort of innings? Heck, Todd Redmond provided close to league average innings last year, and he’s arguably not even in the upper end of the depth chart.
The AL East is a lot harder than the AL Central. Also there are a lot more homer friendly parks, including the Rogers Centre. He isn’t a bad pitcher, he just isn’t what the Jays need right now.
baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaer01.shtml
You might want to check the HR numbers
There is always “that” (player saying no to Toronto.) I’ll agree with you that Santana was a better fit than Ubaldo. But they shouldn’t overpay (which whoever signs Santana, will) when they have Stroman in-house. I think he’s going to surprise a few people.
You haven’t applied context to your numbers. Santana’s spent his entire career in The Big A and Kauffman, parks that statistically have suppressed home runs. Now throw him into a HR haven like the Dome, and add the offense of the AL East clubs: Ervin Santana in Toronto is a terrible idea.
Both are better than anything they have now.
Dickey is at best a #3 pitcher, and he’s getting older/worse by the second. Buehrle is #4 pitcher and he’s getting older/worse by the second. Morrow has a front end type stuff but is completely unreliable health wise. The rest are injured youngsters like Drabek and Hutch, or AAAA guys like Happ, Rogers.
Why have a hundred million dollar team with a rotation of a 100 loss team?
Both are better than anything they have now.
Dickey is at best a #3 pitcher, and he’s getting older/worse by the second. Buehrle is #4 pitcher and he’s getting older/worse by the second. Morrow has a front end type stuff but is completely unreliable health wise. The rest are injured youngsters like Drabek and Hutch, or AAAA guys like Happ, Rogers.
Why have a hundred million dollar team with a rotation of a 100 loss team?
I wouldnt want to over pay for Ervin Santana so good move there. Will be interesting to see what he finally accepts.
This doesn’t really change much. Pitchers and catchers have reported already and Santana is in a league of his own in terms of the remaining options. I wouldn’t have called them a likely landing spot for him anyway though that could change fairly quickly.
Good idea AA , lets not increase our depth because we have two guys coming off surgeries to rely on. Also let’s rush Stroman to the big leagues because we’re too cheap to pay for someone to eat some quality innings for a rotation that is old and injury prone and also not good ( Happ, Rogers!?). And we’ll replace them with medicore injured unproven prospects to fill in WHEN an injury happens to Morrow. Looking forward to this season!
A little snarky, but I basically agree. Anthopoulos is being stubborn about sticking to internal valuations, and not letting a league average pitcher in the door. They could REALLY use a league average pitcher. Unless they’ve given up on 2014 and are about to blow things up.
With the money the Jays have , it makes no sense not to add more stability to a completey medicore rotation at best and that’s IF ( big if ) they stay healthy. Then you’re relying on Happ!? and potentially Rogers? Or one of the tommy john twins for the 5th spot , It’s ridiculous to me.
Just because you have money doesn’t mean you should spend it dumb.
Also Redmond, Stroman, Romero, McGowan, Nolin, Sanchez. I will agree with this assessment if Happ proves to be less than league average, but it seems to me they have plenty of in-house options for sharing the 5th starter duties, and for injury fill-ins.
Sanchez is nowhere near ready. Nolin isn’t anything special and was brought up to early last year , McGowans arm will fall off if he starts , redmond will likely be dfa’d this spring since we have too many guys out of options and not enough spots. Romero isn’t even on the 40 man roster , we’ll have to dfa someone to brig him north thus killing more depth. I don’t see how you’re confident with those options.
I’m not confident, but they are depth, this is what depth is – a bunch of possibilities. How many other teams have a decent #5 pitcher? The real question is whether Happ as a #4 will perform like what you’d need. Like I said, if the team’s valuation of him is off, I might join people in complaining unless the depth pans out (although if it does this could also be due to sheer luck).
Don’t the Jays already have a number of at least potential league average pitchers?
How much more depth do you want? Santana is a number 3 or 4-ish type pitcher, we seem to have plenty of people to fill that role, and that one pitcher is not going to make or break the season anyway. Sure, many of those people are “unproven”, but Santana also has a track record of some inconsistency.
That money would be much better spent on another frontline starter, or a second baseman.
You go all in last year and now this year you don’t finish the job? Santana at the very least gives you a starter that will actually finish the season not on the disabled list so we can let the tommy john twins build up some more innings in non pressure situations. It’s honestly careless asset management in my opinion.
Do you want innings, or quality innings? We have lots of starters that should be suitable 4-ish ERA type fill-ins, giving you the same sort of innings. I’m sure you’ve seen the list…
Do you trust any of those options to go 200 innngs at a 4 era? I don’t. Drabek and Hutch are coming off Tommy john , Rogers is suited for long relief , Happ can barely get to the 5th innining in most games , redmond is a journey man. Stroman likely isn’t ready… I don’t know what you see but It’s not something that fills me with confidence.
Why do we need a single person to provide 200 innings? There have been plenty of examples of teams with mid-season starting pitching replacements. We don’t want 6 people doing the job by committee, but two or three over the season isn’t necessarily the end-of-the-world.
You have way more confidence in the options than I do clearly. I don;t trust Morrow to stay healthy either , or Happ to go deep into games.
So, what we can agree upon is that there are a ton of question marks. Is it wise to make a 3 or 4 year commitment to a player with an inconsistent track record when there are so many questions that need answering? Either way, like I said, this spot in the rotation isn’t going to make or break the season, what will is how many of the numerous other questions will be answered.
If he’s not on the disable list he can potentially give up home runs like there is no tomorrow. I be cautious to sign Santana. Yes he has been consistent but his 39 home runs screams caution for the Jays.
Wonder if Santana should of accepted that one year 14.1 offer at the end of the season?
Would of should of could of am i right!? #ShouldHave
No, he shouldn’t have.
Santana will get 3-4 years and around 50 million… accepting arbitration would have been foolish
Jays need a lot more than Ervin Santana. I say have some patience and stay the course and maybe add next year if we look like we’re close
The Jays are such a big bat team that they can get by until at least the break with adequate pitching. Let’s see where we are mid-season. Then, after that, we’re looking at a vastly improved crop of free agent arms hitting the market come November.
While I wouldn’t break the bank to sign either Ubaldo or Santana, AA hasn’t even been able to swing a trade.I think he forgets the Marlins trade was a salary dump, most teams expect value for value.The Mets trade sadly is a better indication of AA’s trading ability,and that’s not saying much.
Wells for Napoli. Bullpen arms and non prospects for Rasmus. Gonzalez for Escobar plus. AA has done just fine in the trades department
You’re forgetting the Dickey trade, our catching is a mess.Not to mention Rios is one of the top OF’ers in baseball, amongst other bad moves.How about his recent manager hire? that was a beaut
AA had nothing to do with Rios, nice try though.
You’re acting like d’Arnaud has made any impact so far (though he has much potential still to do so). AJ Jimenez isn’t too far off.
You’re acting like RA Dickey has made an impact.
He gave the team 203 innings and something like 3 WAR. It’s not a Cy Young repeat, but it was still a good season for, what, $7 million?
And signing Melky was genius
Brett Lawrie for Shaun Marcum…Steve Delabar for Eric Thames.
Cash for the Miguel Olivo draft pick coup. Brilliant.
AA’s done more good than bad, it’s just unfortunate the success hasn’t shown. While it would have been nice to sign or trade for someone, I’m more intrigued having Stroman or Hutch in the 5 spot than overpay in years/money for guys like Ubaldo/Santana.
Aaron Hill for Kelly Johnson
Nothing wrong with that trade at the time. Hill was struggling and Murphy was trying to make him a pure power hitter, which wasn’t working out. The change of scenery did him good.
So essentially we traded a player at his lowest possible value, got nothing in return, and you’re saying there’s nothing wrong with that?
Trades are evaluated in hindsight. And AA’s evaluation for the Aaron Hill is very, very bad.
What I’m saying is Aaron Hill would not be the player he currently is if he was still a Blue Jay…thus his value would have continued to drop. No one knew Johnson would be that bad and Hill would resurrect. Evaluating a trade in pure hindsight is foolish, you have to look at the circumstances beforehand (much like the Napoli/Francisco swap).
Sure, Wells for Napoli was a great trade. Napoli for Frank Francisco was not. A lot of AA apologists like to cherry pick his trades. While he’s made some good ones, he’s made quite a few bad ones, namely, the Aaron Hill trade. Also, while we’re being honest with ourselves, the Roy Halladay trade can be considered a complete loss and the RA Dickey trade has the makings of another tick in the L column for AA.
How is the Halladay trade a loss? He was walking if he wasn’t traded. Unless you thought the Jays would have made the playoffs in 2010 with him, getting anything in return is better than nothing.
Sure, Wells for Napoli was a great trade. Napoli for Frank Francisco was not. A lot of AA apologists like to cherry pick his trades. While he’s made some good ones, he’s made quite a few bad ones, namely, the Aaron Hill trade. Also, while we’re being honest with ourselves, the Roy Halladay trade can be considered a complete loss and the RA Dickey trade has the makings of another tick in the L column for AA.
Yeah…. Then he turned around and traded Napoli for Frank Francisco. Also the Wells trade was only made because the Angels were desperate, and the Braves were getting nothing from Escobar in the middle of a pennant race. Needless to say, those kind of situations don’t come along very often; and when AA has had to trade with a team on equal terms he hasn’ t done nearly as well.
The Jays already have Buerhle, they don’t need another HR prone pitcher.
Santana’s career HR/9 is almost identical to those of Dickey, Happ, and Morrow. Buerhle’s is actually the lowest in the rotation. Great research.
In RAD’s defence, most of his career was spent as a terrible pitcher.
but I still stand by my second statement. Jays don’t need another HR prone pitcher.
Not to be snarky, but your research shows no context. Glass houses, is all.
The regression that Ervin Santana would experience in the Rogers Center would be horrific. If They were disappointed by RA Dickey’s transition, then they don’t want to be anywhere near Santana. If he isn’t pitching in a big pitchers park, he’s likely going to regress to a number 4 starter with the potential to be a decent number 3 at times. He will never pitch better than Dickey, Morrow, or Buehrle in that ballpark. How can someone think that a guy who surrendered a league high longball number in Anaheim would manage better in that launchpad up north? You need strikeout/groundout pitchers in that park. Not to mention that Santana really only centers around a 4.00 ERA even in his pitchers parks. How could this ever be a good idea? If you want a #4, go grab a guy on an MiLB deal with a 1-2 mill ceiling, not 50mill/4
Trade for Samardzija still a possibility?
Not likely. They won;t part with Stroman + Sanchez for him
I know that’s probably what Theo/Jed have been asking for, but as a Cubs fan I would be happy with one of them and a “B” level arm.
I think Theo’s crazy not to ask for Tirado + Stroman + Jimenez for Samardzija.
They wouldn’t have to….well if I was running the baseball ops of the Cubs. As I said below, the package of players should have been enough. Heck, include Cecil and I’d throw in Barney or Valbuena.
The Jays need pitching now. After last seasons moves they are a win now team. Most of their cornerstone players are over 30 so if they aren’t willing to add they might as well blowup the team (Dickey, Reyes, Bautistia, E5, etc.) and get young.
What makes them win-now?
Age of their core players. Last years Miami trade was a win now type of move which has really thinned the Jays farm. If you are not going to win with your core players in their 30s and late 20s its time to start thinking about rebuilding and looking towards the future.
Encarnacion – 31
Dickey – 39
Bautista – 33
Buehrle – 34
Reyes – 28
Morrow – 29
It’s not so much that they aren’t likely to sign Santana it’s their inability to sign anyone this winter. The only thing AA has done is a passable upgrade at catcher. Second base is still a dark hole and all his posturing about adding SP’s after last year has amounted to a joke.
I don’t think anyone in baseball can figure out the Jays front office, I know I have no idea where this group is going.
What’s to figure out? The Jays don’t have a lot of assets to trade for a 2B or frontline pitcher, there weren’t really any exciting 2B or frontline pitcher free agents out there this year, save Stephen Drew (if he counts) and Tanaka, and the Jays have plenty of backend pitchers.
I’m not being an AA apologist, I’m just saying that it was a difficult situation, and the turnout not a complete surprise.
Even though he was never on the radar, Robinson Cano says hi.
Omar Infante would have been an upgrade..
Depends on how badly they wanted Smardzjia
Hope they enjoy remaining in the al east basement
If Toronto finishes below .500 through April , I’ll be the screaming for AA to go Months ago we were told the rotation and 2b were areas of concern but now I guess we will just see what happens with the same team we fielded last year.
It is always funny to watch the comments. Many here want Toronto to pay 50M for a pitcher that has one good year – two bad ones and they call it an upgrade. Meanwhile, you have the starting pitching class of 2015 that puts pitchers like Santana, Jimenez, etc to shame as inconsistant pitchers they are. They aren’t a difference maker, but you want to waste the money on them, when you could invest in a pitcher that is a definite 1 or 2 in your rotation. That cripples payroll and that pitcher isn’t signed, because fans wanted money thrown away on mediocrity. Stroman, Sanchez, etc could then come out of the chute resembling Kershaw, Nolan ryan, Clemons, etc, but they are blocked from starting because Santana has their spot. No one has a clue what a pitcher will do and every year a pitcher rises to their potential and when teams saw them as useless one year, they are then seen as a staff ace. I like to use the example of Encarnacion and many fans had him given up for dead. Most fans would scream if the Jays cut him loose now or traded him, but that is the nature of baseball. Everyone sees the grass as being greener on the other side of the fence, when in reality, they had the greenish lawn on the block right in their own front yard. Contrary to the young fans that think money grows on trees and teams should throw it away, every time the payroll increases, more money comes out of the pocket of the fan through higher prices for tickets and cable costs. Most fans that live in their mother’s basement and don’t work don’t understand the economics of the real world until they actually are forced to get a job. Isn’t it funny how they suddenly learn the value of a dollar when they pay the bills, instead of when they sponged off others for everything. The rotation is fine in 2014 and instead of being inpatient or writing off the year, let the players decide how the year goes. It is the players that decide how they do each year, not management, not the fans, but they could have Kershaw, Greinke, Sale, Hernandez, Sabathia as their starting five and still finish last in the division. Names always look good, but performance trumps a name and nothing is guaranteed. Teams win the world series every year with no name players, rookies, and retreads in their lineups that had a good year at the same time. Teams with all stars end in failure, but fans don’t acknowledge that part.
I applaud the sentiments and the time you took to write this. Amen. Furthermore, I’m more excited to see Stroman than a 4 yr/50 mill Ubaldo/Ervin in the Jays rotation. Less pressure, improved chemistry (since that was such a hot topic last offseason), and a healthier squad can make the Jays a wild card team at the least.
Bring up Stroman and Sanchez — those boys are ready to win now!
Stroman yes…but Sanchez has not pitched higher than A ball. Maybe you’re looking at a September call-up with him.
Watch him pitch this spring — he’s ready.
He may be ready, but they still are going to want him to pitch at the higher levels to begin the season. Hutchison and Stroman seem like the most likely candidates for the 5th spot.
Sanchez is the most talented right now, but ready? Oh boy, I don’t know about that. The Blue jays will not win the East in 2014, nor a playoff spot (relax, I am a Blue Jays fan.)
No reason to bring Sanchez up in 2014 just to get him shell shocked by the Red Sox or Yankees ( or even the Tigers). Let him grow up, kick some backside, gain all the confidence in the World, devastate career minor leaguers, and break with the team in 2015 or when it makes sense from a service time standpoint.
This IS a business, after all.
I had to edit this profusely for MLBTR to post it.
So far I am right and you are wrong.
Did you seriously go back five months just to say you were rigth about something? After about a 5 IP sample size? Take a look at yourself, guy.
Replied to the wrong comment. I agree with you.
The Blue Jays can use Santana. Their starting pitching is horrible. Only the Twins & Rockies starters threw fewer innings than the Jays starters did last season. Morrow is coming off 2 injury plagued seasons. Hutchinson & Drabek are coming off Tommy John surgery. Romero is a lost cause. Stroman isn’t ready. Redmond is mediocre at best. The Jays need another starter badly. AA is just too scared to make a move
Is it reasonable to assume the worst-case scenario for Morrow, Hutchinson, Drabek, Romero, Stroman, and Redmond, while also assuming Santana would thrive?
Santana is better than Romero, Redmond, Rogers, etc. I like Morrow, but how can you rely on him when he hasn’t been healthy? Stroman is going to be good, but I don’t want to see the Jays rush him. He needs time in AAA. Hutchinson didn’t pitch at all last season. It usually takes time to get back fully from Tommy John surgery. Drabek only pitched a little last season after Tommy John surgery and he didn’t pitch well. I’d rather have Santana in there than think some of the other scenarios are going to play out. Even if Morrow bounces back, you still need another starter
Keep in mind both Hutchinson and Stroman impressed in the AFL. So with a strong spring, I can see Hutchinson being ready to be the 5th starter. Redmond, Rogers, Romero, and Drabek — let’s see how well they do in spring, too. All is not lost without Santana. The Jays could still make a mid-season trade for more starting pitching if they are in the playoff hunt.
A mid-season trade with what? Stroman & Sanchez are the only prospects that the Jays have left & they need to hold onto those two arms. The Jays traded away a bunch of top prospects last offseason. The Jays starting pitching is simply not good enough to compete in the AL East. Redmond is a fill-in starter. Rogers is better as a long-man in the bullpen. Romero is, well, lost. The Jays don’t know how to fix him. He doesn’t know how to fix himself. He isn’t going to help. Stroman needs at least half a season in AAA. The Arizona Fall League doesn’t prove anything. I like Hutchinson a lot, but I don’t think he will be a big contributor to this team until later in the season. Same goes for Drabek. A starting rotation of Dickey, Buerhle, Morrow, Happ & whoever doesn’t win in the AL East. The Jays have a very good bullpen, but it will get overworked once again because the starting pitching won’t eat up innings
Keep in mind that a 2012 Orioles rotation of Chen, Arrieta, Hunter, Gonzalez, and Hammel, with Tillman in the mix, got them to the postseason, with an arguably less potent offense than the Jays have this year. Now, we all know that team was incredibly lucky (e.g. their record in 1-run games), but still, I’m not sure Santana pushes this rotation over the edge from non-competitive in the AL East (in the worst-case scenario) to competitive, which I believe can happen without Santana if Morrow gets over 100 IP in and at least one of the young guys thrives. Even if the Jays don’t want to give up Stroman or Sanchez, Nolin, Norris, or Osuna could be part of a mid-season package that could net a serviceable #3 or #4 starter. The Jays farm system was so good before the 2013 season that even after trading d’Arnaud, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Marisnick, and Hechevarria, it’s still in the middle of the pack in terms of farm system strength.
Santana is a bigger risk than any of the pitchers that we have. The guy gave up 39 homers. He’s gonna light up like a Christmas tree in the A.L East. I am very disappointed that we didn’t sign Ubaldo, but at this point it’s better to stand pat and try to make improvements during the season than go into panic mode and irrationally sign Santana unless his asking price is acceptable to Jay’s terms.
The Blue Jays are stuck in simpler times. Not that Santana would have made them that much better.
Signing Santana won’t make much of a difference, with not shoring up other areas of the team why waste money or time on him.. They might as well pull a Marlins and just trade away the team and reload for another 5yr plan.. I really hope this is the last year of AA..
If Brandon Morrow goes down with his annual June injury, the Jays could be in deep waters pretty fast. Having .500 pitchers in your 1 and 2 slots (Dickey and Buehrle) makes me uneasy and relying on your “young arms” to carry the team is just as risky as going out and signing a free agent. I personally don’t think Jimenez or Santana were great fits for the team and the market wasn’t great this offseason, but next offseason they will have their work cut out for them. Resigning Rasmus will be a job in itself. Concerning 2nd base, I’m not expecting much out of Goins. If the Mariners land Cruz, they may be quick to dump Dustin Ackley which would be a nice pickup for us because of his experience at 2 bag
“Morrows June Injrury” sounds like either a fantasy baseball team name or a twitter parody account.
Can’t say I disagree with you on much here. Ackley won’t hit much in the MLB but seems to be able to play 2b. If I were the jays front office, I’d aim higher. But 2b is shallow.
“Morrows June Injrury” sounds like either a fantasy baseball team name or a twitter parody account.
Can’t say I disagree with you on much here. Ackley won’t hit much in the MLB but seems to be able to play 2b. If I were the jays front office, I’d aim higher. But 2b is shallow.
If you have resigned yourself to last place, then why finish last with a payroll of over a $100 million. Its absolutely stupid. If they won’t improve this last place team then they should have blown it up, dump salary, try to get some prospects and start from scratch. Now, I can understand if the main hope is to get a good first half out of Reyes, Dickey, Rasmus, (no one is going to touch Buehrle unfortunately) etc so that they can be dealt with out having to eat salary. But the market for Bautista and EE and their better bullpen arms would have been higher in the offseason.
Of course the other possibility is that they don’t want AA to be the guy to be tearing down this disaster of a team because he has shown he’s a dud of a GM and they are looking with someone with real ability to be the one to being the long rebuilding process.
On the other hand
If they actually think this team can compete, that they are keeping it together with hopes of October baseball then it is the saddest thing I have other heard. Only a certifiable whackjob psycho would think this team can win more than 75 games in absolutely just the best possible scenario.