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Mets Still Targeting Trade For Young Shortstop

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Though they were never that interested in Stephen Drew, finding a solution at shortstop remains a priority for the Mets, reports Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. While the upcoming free agent class features prominent names such as Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jed Lowrie, Martino hears that the team isn’t looking at that market yet. Rather, the Mets are focused on adding a young, controllable shortstop on the trade market this summer.

Martino lists Brad Miller and Nick Franklin of the Mariners as possibilities, though one source tells him that the two sides haven’t been in contact recently. Arizona’s Didi Gregorius is hitting very well at Triple-A Reno, and Martino says the Mets are continually monitoring him, but the front office shakeup in Arizona makes trading with them a bit confusing at this time, he adds. Martino writes that other teams, at this point, aren’t even sure whether to contact GM Kevin Towers or new Chief Baseball Officer Tony La Russa regarding trades, though Mets GM Sandy Alderson has a good relationship with both.

He continues by stating that the Mets were only interested in Drew on a one-year deal, as they didn’t want to be responsible for 2015 and beyond if he struggled this season. The team currently wants to see if Wilmer Flores can handle the position, but his defensive question marks have been well-documented.

From this point on, I’m purely speculating, but I wonder if a name like Hak-Ju Lee could be available on the trade market now that the Rays have extended Yunel Escobar’s contract through at least 2016. Lee is struggling thus far in his return from multiple ligament tears in his knee last season, but he’s a former Top 100 prospect that could be blocked on the big league roster.

The Rangers also have some middle infield depth with Luis Sardinas likely blocked from a starting role due to the presence of Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar. The pitching-hungry Twins also have a solid shortstop prospect in Danny Santana, though their own lack of a quality long-term option at short might make them hesitant to deal the 23-year-old.

The Mets possess enviable pitching depth with Matt Harvey on the mend from Tommy John surgery and a group of young starters including Jon Niese, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee, Rafael Montero, Jacob deGrom and top prospect Noah Syndergaard. With such a wide range of arms under team control, the Mets could conceivably use that depth to entice a rival club to part with a controllable shortstop.

West Links: Guerrero, Dodgers, A’s, Arencibia

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Dodgers infield prospect Alex Guerrero could miss up to five weeks after having part of his ear bitten off in an altercation with Triple-A teammate Miguel Olivo, reports Danny Knobler of ESPNLosAngeles.com. Agent Scott Boras told Knobler that Guerrero was taken to a hospital and had plastic surgery on the ear. GM Ned Colletti wouldn’t comment on potentially disciplining either player, though he expressed disappointment in the situation. Colletti said Guerrero is close to Major League ready, though the team wants him to continue to improve defensively. Obviously, that development will be on hold for awhile. As we process one of the most bizarre storylines in recent memory, here’s more from the game’s Western divisions…

  • The timing of the Guerrero/Olivo scuffle couldn’t be much worse for Guerrero or the Dodgers, as MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes that Juan Uribe could be headed to the DL. Gurnick looks at alternatives on the 40-man roster but also notes that with the Dodgers needing a roster spot for Hyun-jin Ryu, the team may not call up an infielder right away.
  • MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince points out that the Athletics’ only two homegrown (i.e. drafted and developed) players on the current active roster are Sonny Gray and Sean Doolittle. The team signed Yoenis Cespedes after he defected from Cuba, every other player was acquired via trade or signed as a free agent from another club. Castrovince looks at the team’s offense and their usage of platoons, which led rival skipper Terry Francona to sing the praises of manager Bob Melvin.
  • Rangers catcher J.P. Arencibia has been optioned to Triple-A Round Rock, and the team has purchased the contract of veteran Chris Gimenez, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweeted last night. Arencibia signed a one-year deal with Texas after being non-tendered by Toronto last winter, but he batted just .133/.182/.233 in 66 PA. No team has gotten less offense from the catcher position than Texas this season, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them pursue upgrades on the trade market.

Reactions To And Fallout From Drew Signing

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The Red Sox ended the long Stephen Drew saga today, agreeing to re-sign the shortstop at a pro-rated annual salary equivalent to the $14.1MM qualifying offer that he declined before the season. Certainly, the signing is interesting on many levels, not least of which because it came with the team staring at the very real possibility of losing the compensatory draft pick it probably hoped to pick up. Drew now joins Ervin Santana and Nelson Cruz in taking one-year deals at or below the QO rate. In Drew’s case, the timing also seemingly reveals something about the present and future market assessment of his agent, Scott Boras. It seems that either or both of the following is likely true to some degree: first, that Boras did not believe Drew would garner an attractive multi-year offer after the amatuer draft passed; and second, that Boras believes Drew can achieve such a deal on next year’s free agent market. Notably, while Drew will not be eligible to receive a qualifying offer, he will be joined in free agency by some or all of Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, Jed Lowrie, and Asdrubal Cabrera.

Here’s more on Drew’s signing:

  • Part of the Red Sox’ calculus in making the move for Drew involved his alternate landing spots, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald reports on Twitter. Several American League competitors could have looked to add him after the draft, including the Tigers and division rivals like the Yankees (if not also the Orioles and Blue Jays).
  • Exactly what kind of interest Drew would have received after shedding draft compensation may never be known, but at least two oft-cited suitors downplayed their interest in the aftermath of the signing. Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said that the move “really hasn’t been discussed internally,” reports Tom Gage of the Detroit News (via Twitter). And Mets GM Sandy Alderson said that his club would not have paid Drew what he received from Boston, tweets Marc Carig of Newsday. Indeed, neither the Mets nor the Yankees were ever really serious pursuers of Drew, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.
  • From the Red Sox’ perspective, adding Drew raised questions about the team’s plans for younger players Xander Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks. Drew is expected to play short, at least against right-handers, reports Tim Britton of the Providence Journal (Twitter links), who says the team will at least consider keeping Middlebrooks on the MLB roster in some form of an indirect platoon with Drew when he comes off the DL. Presumably, Bogaerts would take short against lefties in that scenario, but as Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com reports, statements from manager John Farrell indicate that Drew will handle most of the load at shortstop. Adding to the intrigue, Farrell also said that the team’s lineup would “depend upon who’s on this team” and “what the roster looks like,” Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal reports (Twitter links). As MacPherson suggests, that could suggest that the team views Middlebrooks as expendable. Certainly, it would not be surprising to hear his name arise in trade talks over the summer.
  • The deal is a win for Boston, which needed an upgrade at the left side of the infield and did not pay a big price to do so, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. But it is not a bad result for Drew either, Cameron says, because his loss of salary this year (as against taking the QO at the beginning of the year) could still be offset by gains from re-entering the market without compensation attached. Addressing the same point, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com agrees that things could still work out in the end for Drew, while noting that the vagaries of the market could decide that question.
  • MacPherson writes that the Red Sox did well to shore up their defense and add another bat to play against righties. While the team may have expected, or even hoped, that Drew would sign elsewhere and return a draft pick, that ship had sailed and the team was able to follow through with an attractive back-up strategy when the need arose.
  • The key to the deal for Boston is the short-term nature of the commitment, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Prospects Deven Marrero and Garin Cecchini join Bogaerts as near-future options on the left side of the infield, says Rosenthal, and the signing does nothing to change the club’s bright outlook in that respect.

Minor Moves: Barton, Kroenke, Lerew

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We’ll keep tabs on the day’s minor moves here …

  • Athletics first baseman Daric Barton has accepted his assignment to Triple-A rather than electing free agency, tweets Chris Cotillo of MLBDailyDish.com. Barton was recently designated for assignment and then outrighted after the A’s added Kyle Blanks via trade.
  • The Nationals have purchased the contract of lefty Zach Kroenke from the independent Somerset Patriots, the Atlantic League club announced on Twitter. Kroenke, a fifth-round pick of the Yankees back in 2005, appeared in seven games over the 2010 and 2011 seasons with the Diamondbacks. The 30-year-old, who has spent time starting and in relief, worked to a 4.51 ERA in 129 2/3 innings with the Brewers’ top affiliate last year.
  • Righty Anthony Lerew’s contract has been purchased by the Angels from the York Revolution, the independent league club announced on Twitter (hat tip to Jason Bristol of CBS 21 News Harrisburg). The 31-year-old has seen action in parts of five big league seasons with the Braves and Royals, but hasn’t cracked the majors since 2010. Once considered a top-100 prospect with Atlanta, Lerew has managed just a 7.48 ERA in 61 1/3 MLB frames, though he has compiled a 3.90 mark in 330 1/3 Triple-A innings (most of them as a starter). Lerew saw some action in Japan and Korea over 2011-13 before returning to the United States this year with the Revolution, for whom he had thrown 24 innings of 2.25 ERA ball.
  • As MLBTR’s DFA Tracker shows, two players remain in DFA limbo at present, both of whom figure to draw some interest: Jeff Keppinger (White Sox) and Justin Maxwell (Royals).

NL West Notes: Ziegler, Dodgers, LaRussa, LaRocque, Hawkins

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Diamondbacks submariner Brad Ziegler is one of the most fascinating, and most effective, relievers in the game, Rany Jazayerli writes for Grantland. Tracking the notable successes of the small number of soft-throwing, under-handed throwers in baseball history, Jazayerli wonders whether there could be some value in looking for more such pitchers. Of course, as he explains, Ziegler is even more unique than most in that he has figured out how to retire opposite-handed hitters. Here’s more from the National League West:

  • For all its talent, the Dodgers’ roster lacks flexibility, writes Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. That, in turn, complicates any possible maneuvers to upgrade the team, which is off to an uninspiring start. But if upgrades are difficult to identify with regard to the team’s key roles, that could be because they may not really be needed. Los Angeles has an enviable rotation that is not likely to be altered substantially, and actually stands at fifth in the bigs in position player fWAR to date. While it is arguable that the team could stand to enjoy stronger performances out of the bullpen and bench, those are the spots most readily upgraded over the summer. The Dodgers can certainly look to do just that if the struggles continue over the summer, and might also consider displacing or supplementing A.J. Ellis behind the plate. (Of course, the more drastic move of shipping out a high-priced outfielder could also be on the table, even if the return is minimal.)
  • The unyielding Tony LaRussa is a poor fit for the Diamondbacks, opines Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. As Passan notes, he will become the game’s oldest head of baseball ops in his first time in the role, and will need to maintain a much broader focus than he did in the dugout. Moreover, while prominent owner Ken Kendrick has cited the need for the organization to better utilize analytics, says Passan, LaRussa is driven first and foremost by his gut and vast experience.
  • LaRussa talked about his view of sabermetrics today in an appearance on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM (via Vince Marotta of ArizonaSports.com). “My opinion is that it’s a valuable tool, but mostly a tool to help you identify talent and then prepare the talent,” said LaRussa. “I think the biggest problem I see is there are teams that have gone way overboard and they are really interfering with the way the managers and coaches conduct strategy during the game by running the analytics and forcing them into it.”
  • If and when LaRussa moves to replace Kevin Towers as the team’s general manager, current Cardinals director of player development Gary LaRocque could be a prime candidate, reports Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com (Twitter links). LaRocque has an extensive scouting background, and has overseen the fast-tracked development of many of the Cards’ impressive young players.
  • Rockies closer LaTroy Hawkins says he does not expect his age-41 season to be his last, tweets Morosi. “If I stay healthy, I’ll play [in 2015],” said Hawkins. The veteran righty has worked to a 4.11 ERA in 15 1/3 innings, though he has struck out only 3.5 batters per nine (against 1.8 BB/9). He is earning $2.25MM this season, and Colorado has an equally-priced option ($250K buyout) for next year.

Injury Notes: Harvey, Lee, Hart, Beltran

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Rehabbing Mets ace Matt Harvey hopes to return to big league action at the end of this season, the righty tells Tom Verducci of SI.com. While Harvey acknowledged that he would not push to return before being cleared, he said he wants to re-establish himself on the hill before the year is out. “I just want the peace of mind,” said Harvey. “I want to go back out there and know I still have the stuff to strike out major league hitters.” For his part, club GM Sandy Alderson sounded a cautious note, reports ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin. “Not being a medical doctor and not really faced with that decision previously, I’ll reserve judgment,” he said. “But the one thing we don’t want to do is be put in a situation where someone — Matt, or anyone else — has a setback because we’ve pushed the natural recovery processes further than we should have.”

Here’s the latest on some injury situations around the game that could potentially have transactional implications:

  • Cliff Lee of the Phillies underwent an MRI today on his left elbow, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports. The durable and excellent lefty has been throwing through elbow tenderness for the last several weeks, but GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said that the discomfort increased in his last start. The 35-year-old has been diagnosed with a flexor pronator strain, tweets Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, though a full assessment will await the results of the MRI. Needless to say, a prolonged absence or ongoing injury questions could not only have ramifications for the Phils’ ability to stay in the post-season race, but could heavily impact the summer’s starting pitching trade market. Lee, who has 21-club no-trade rights, is owed $25MM this year and next before a 2016 vesting/club option that comes with a $12.5MM buyout.
  • Mariners first baseman/outfielder/DH Corey Hart is expected to miss four to six weeks, reports MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). That news — and Stephen Drew’s signing with the Red Sox today — has fueled calls for Seattle to take another look at re-signing first baseman/DH Kendrys Morales. Should Morales stay a free agent until the upcoming amateur draft, of course, he will be free to sign anywhere without costing his new team a pick, and without returning a compensatory choice to the M’s.
  • Yankees outfielder Carlos Beltran still hopes to play through the bone spur in his elbow, but if surgery is required he would be out for about two months, reports Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News (Twitter links). Beltran saw Dr. James Andrews today, who confirmed the original diagnosis. It appears that the question at this point is whether or not Beltran can deal with the pain while playing at full speed.

Reds To Sign Jair Jurrjens

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4:30pm: Jurrjens would earn a $800K annual rate should he crack the big league roster, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

7:38am: The Reds have agreed to to a minor league contract with free agent right-hander Jair Jurrjens, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter). The Scott Boras client was said recently to be eyeing a comeback after undergoing knee surgery last fall.

It’s been a rapid decline for Jurrjens, who is still just 28 years of age. The Curacao native was dominant for the Braves in 2011, posting a 2.38 ERA through his first 19 starts of the season. He suffered a knee injury shortly thereafter and would make only four more starts in 2011, allowing 16 runs in 23 1/3 innings.

It’s been downhill for Jurrjens since that time, as he’s posted a 6.63 ERA in 55 2/3 innings since and has undergone multiple knee surgeries as he attempts to revive his once-promising career. While his brilliant 2011 campaign was likely aided by a deflated batting average on balls in play (.267) and an elevated strand rate (81 percent), he still had the makings of a solid big league starting pitcher in his first four seasons with Atlanta.

Jurrjens spent much of last season in Triple-A with the Orioles and Tigers (the organization which originally signed him), pitching to a 4.57 ERA with 5.1 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 134 innings. He’ll serve as additional rotation depth for the Reds, who also have Chien-Ming Wang in their Triple-A rotation. Jeff Francis also occupied a role with that team until he was claimed off waivers by the Athletics this past weekend. Cincinnati has been without Mat Latos all season, but Alfredo Simon has surprisingly stepped up and filled that role masterfully, pitching to a 2.45 ERA in 51 1/3 innings out of the rotation.

Velocity Changes Among Free Agent Starters

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With more than six weeks behind us, nearly every team has completed a quarter of its games this season. Impending free agents have a significant amount of their platform years in the books, though it’s certainly not too late to change the opinions of potential offseason suitors.

One way in which free agent pitchers can raise their stock is to up their velocity, although the opposite of that can hold true as well. A resurgence in velocity helped to save Scott Kazmir’s career last season and took him from a minor league contract to a two-year, $22MM guarantee. On the other side of the spectrum, a rapid decline in velocity dropped Tim Lincecum from a lock to receive $100MM+ to a two-year, $35MM contract that looks to be a questionable investment.

A look at the coming free agent crop of starters shows that several arms could be improving their stock by turning up the heat on their fastballs, while several free-agents-to-be have seen troubling declines in their velocity that have contributed to poor results. Some will be quick to point out that many starters’ velocity increases over the course of a season. Because of this, I’ve included a comparison of each pitcher’s 2013 and 2014 April velocities as well. This should give a rough indicator of where each pitcher is right now compared to this point in the 2013 season.

I’ve included any pitcher who is working as a starter and has a chance at free agency next season, even if it’s a virtual lock that their club option will be exercised (e.g. Johnny Cueto). Additionally, potential starters who are working out of the bullpen (e.g. Chris Capuano) have been omitted, as their velocity spikes are likely due to a change in role (pitchers typically see increased velocity when switching to a relief role). Here’s the list, sorted by the most positive change to most negative change from 2013 to 2014:

As J.A. Happ is a testament to, a noticeable velocity increase doesn’t guarantee improved performance. Though his ERA is down, his command has suffered greatly, making his 3.57 mark unsustainable without improvement in that area. However, most starters with a positive change have demonstrated improvements in their swinging-strike rate and overall strikeout percentage. Ryan Vogelsong has cut his ERA by more than two full runs. Brandon McCarthy and Jorge De La Rosa, while they haven’t seen their ERAs dip, have seen notable improvements in sabermetric ERA estimators such as xFIP and SIERA.

A dip in velocity, on the other hand, is often a precursor to an arm-related injury, and could ultimately serve as a red flag for interested teams on the free agent market if paired with declining results. There is, of course, still time for each pitcher on this list to see his velocity change in one direction or the other, but the above velocity changes are something to keep an eye on as it relates to the free agent stock of each. Names like Justin Masterson, who currently ranks sixth on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings but has seen the largest decline of any free agent, will be of particular interest as the season wears on.

*=Velocity data from May 2014 was used, as Floyd did not pitch this April.
**=Velocity data from April 2012 was used, as Lewis didn’t pitch in the Majors last season.
***=Velocity data from May 2013 was used, as Liriano didn’t pitch in the Majors last April.
****=Velocity data from May 2012 was used, as Paulino didn’t pitch in the Majors in either of the past two Aprils.

Data from Fangraphs was critical to the creation of this post.

Brandon Lyon Elects Free Agency

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Right-hander Brandon Lyon, who had been pitching for the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate in Salt Lake, has elected free agency, according to the Pacific Coast League transactions page.

Lyon, 34, turned in a 4.08 ERA in 17 2/3 innings, though he posted just a 9-to-8 K/BB ratio in that time and surrendered 33 hits. A lot of those hits were likely the function of poor luck, as his .429 batting average on balls in play for the Bees would almost certainly have regressed over a larger sample.

The 12-year Major League veteran spent most of the 2013 season pitching out of the Mets’ bullpen, totaling a 4.98 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 34 1/3 innings of work. Lyon has a career 4.16 ERA in 681 1/3 innings with the D’Backs, Astros, Blue Jays, Mets, Tigers and Red Sox. He’s pitched in both a setup role and a ninth-inning role, having served as the Diamondbacks’ closer for two different stints and served as Houston’s closer in 2010.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Cards, Yanks, Phelps, Asche, Turner

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In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports quotes one rival executive that said Cardinals GM John Mozeliak “realizes he has more talent than anyone else — and he’s reluctant to get rid of it.” (That reluctance is illustrated by Mozeliak’s comments to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, as the GM told him that external changes aren’t much of a consideration at this time.) Rosenthal looks at some of the recent improvements in the Cardinals’ offense and echoes Goold’s initial report that patience seems the likely route for St. Louis at this point.

More trade-, draft- and prospect-related highlights from a lengthy piece that also looks at slow starts in the AL East and a surprising start from the Twins…

  • The Yankees have better pitching depth than many realize, Rosenthal opines, noting that Adam Warren could be moved into the rotation when Shawn Kelley is healthy again. He also points to a quartet of hard-throwing relievers at Triple-A — Diego Moreno, Jose Ramirez, Danny Burawa and Branden Pinder. A trade is still something the Yanks will likely explore, but despite the aforementioned depth, the team likely doesn’t have the firepower to land someone like Cliff Lee, in Rosenthal’s eyes. They have little more to offer than relief help and high-end catching talent and could be competing with at least two other AL East teams in the Orioles and Blue Jays.
  • David Phelps wasn’t the Yankees’ priority when scouting director Damon Oppenheimer went to see Notre Dame play prior to the 2008 draft. Oppenheimer was scouting Phelps’ teammate Kyle Weiland, but Phelps impressed him with his competitiveness, prompting Oppenheimer to push for him in the 14th round, which looks to be a nice bargain pickup six years later.
  • The Phillies are having internal discussions about moving Cody Asche to the outfield in 2015 in order to clear room on the 25-man roster for top prospect Maikel Franco at third base.  Though Rosenthal doesn’t mention this, that does raise the question of what will become of Domonic Brown, the team’s left fielder who is once again struggling after what looked to be a breakout 2013 season.
  • Rosenthal hears that NC State shortstop Trea Turner is drawing interest from teams in the No. 6-10 range of the upcoming draft. The fleet-footed shortstop also has pop in his bat (he’s second in the ACC in homers), but some scouts wonder if he can stick at shortstop. Rosenthal points out that both the Mariners (No. 6) and the Mets (No. 10) have needs at shortstop heading into a draft that is light on college shortstops.
  • Analysts from the Pirates and Marlins made the same comment to Rosenthal in the past week: the most useful data regarding defensive shifts comes from where hitters put the ball in play against a team’s own pitchers. The Marlins aren’t particularly focused where batters hit the ball against soft-tossers, due to the flamethrowing nature of their rotation. Likewise, the Pirates’ shifts are based largely on batted ball data against Francisco Liriano, Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton.

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