Sunday morning, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo quoted a GM suggesting that Jon Lester might be emerging as the best starting pitcher in the 2015 free agent class. “Lester is the most appealing,” the GM said. “He’s lefthanded, a bulldog, big-game experience, and just 30. Will he get six or seven years? I’d say he will.”
Lester may well get six or seven years, but the assertion that he’s the most appealing starting pitcher available next winter is interesting, given the other top potential free agents, who include Justin Masterson, Ervin Santana, Max Scherzer and James Shields. There are other interesting free-agent options, like Jake Peavy and Francisco Liriano, but we’ll limit ourselves to these five. We’ll also ignore players like Johnny Cueto whose teams possess options for their services for 2015.
Obviously, there’s no guarantee that all these pitchers will actually become free agents. Lester and Masterson, for example, could still sign extensions with their current teams. But let’s rank those top five pitchers with the assumption that they’ll all hit the market.
Lester has increased his strikeouts and decreased his walks so far this season. He currently leads MLB in pitcher fWAR and has a long track record of success in both the regular season and postseason. He reportedly declined a four-year, $70MM extension offer from the Red Sox in April.
Masterson has seen his fastball dip in velocity this season, which may be one reason the Indians reportedly balked at a three-year extension proposal in the $53MM range, but he’s continued to get results this season. He’s also the youngest pitcher of the five, having just turned 29 in March.
Santana had to settle for a one-year deal last offseason, but he has since been a key part of the Braves’ excellent season, posting a 1.99 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 so far.
Scherzer has continued his the dominance that led him to the 2013 AL Cy Young award, striking out a career-high 11.2 batters per nine innings while posting a 2.04 ERA. In March, he rejected a six-year, $144MM extension offer from the Tigers.
Shields has been one of the AL’s most consistent and durable starters in the past several seasons — he has pitched over 200 innings every season since 2007. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season in 2015, however, which could limit his earnings potential somewhat.
If you were a GM looking for a top-notch starter, how would you rank these five pitchers? Rank them in terms of their desirability as free agents, regardless of how much they are likely to cost.
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