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Archives for September 2014

Red Sox Preparing For Major Free Agent Spending

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Red Sox chairman Tom Werner said today in an appearance on WEEI’s Dennis & Callahan (via WEEI.com’s Jerry Spar) that his club is prepared to spend a significant amount of money on the upcoming free agent market. “[W]e are determined to get back to being in first next year,” said Werner.

Citing the “extreme flexibility” that the club was able to achieve in the famous 2012 August blockbuster with the Dodgers, Werner said that the organization is prepared to open the pocketbook this winter. “I wouldn’t say that we have limitless money, but we’ve got a lot of money to spend and we’re determined to go into the free agent market and improve the team.”

Indeed, after entering this year with about $156MM in MLB payroll, about $20MM off of the team’s 2012 high water mark, Boston has just under $106MM committed for 2015 and does not have any high-dollar arbitration cases to account for. But the team’s true flexibility is all the more evident looking further into the future: it has annual guarantees of no more than about $37MM on the books past next year.

So how will the team look to allocate its future resources? In part, it seems, the organization may have added motivation to invest in established players to ensure a quality product. (Werner called this season “a nightmare,” and noted that late-season games are “just not a good experience for the fans.”) Boston went into this season hoping to make another World Series run on the back of repeat performances from veterans and steps forward for younger players. “I know it’s always difficult to break a few rookies into your lineup,” acknowledged Werner. “… But I think we probably put too much stock in the replacements that we expected to come out and perform.” Nevertheless, Werner said that he and the rest of the organization remains confident that youthful contributors like Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts will play an important role in the immediate future.

Immediate priorities will, of course, be dictated in part by the team’s recent actions. Dealing away free agent-to-be Jon Lester, rather than extending him, created space at the top of the rotation but also brought in Yoenis Cespedes for at least one full season at Fenway. Likewise, Allen Craig provides a veteran bounceback candidate in the outfield. And the recent signing of Cuban free agent Rusney Castillo also adds to the crowded mix of outfield options.

That leaves the obvious area of immediate focus on pitching. “We know we have to add some front-line talent,” said Werner. “We spent some time over the last few weeks talking about exactly what we can do to improve. I think that our trades at the end of July attacked the fact that we had a lack of offense. … But we know we need some front-line pitching talent.” It is worth noting that, in addition to parting with veteran starters Lester and John Lackey, the club will also need to replace (or bring back) key relievers such as Koji Uehara and Andrew Miller (among others).

East Notes: Sanchez, Rays, Smyly, Lee, Mets Lawsuit

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Highly-regarded Blue Jays prospect Aaron Sanchez is proving that his stuff plays at the MLB level, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. His upper-90s fastball is generating swings and misses along with plenty of groundballs, and he’s also found success with his curve. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Sanchez has shown that the two-pitch combo can make him a force out of the pen, but the next step will be for him to incorporate his change as he looks to establish himself as a big league starter in the future. Sanchez is currently rated the game’s 37th-best overall prospect by MLB.com.

Here’s more from the east:

  • The Rays expect their payroll to drop below this season’s franchise record of over $80MM, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports on Twitter. Overall spending is “clearly going to be lower,” said owner Stuart Sternberg. That is hardly surprising, especially given that the team will not be paying David Price a big arbitration raise and has Heath Bell coming off the books. On the other hand, it would seem to indicate that Tampa does not expect to add significant salary via free agency or trade, as the team will be paying raises to players like James Loney and Grant Balfour (whose free agent deals were backloaded) as well as arbitration-eligibles such as Matt Joyce, Jeremy Hellickson, Jake McGee, Desmond Jennings, and the recently-acquired Drew Smyly.
  • Since going to the Rays in the Price trade, Smyly has increased his strikeout rate and improved his effectiveness against righties by elevating his fastball, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports originally explored and Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs further explains with the aid of many interesting statistics and GIFs. As Sullivan writes — and as Fangraphs has been discussing more generally of late — there is an increasing movement among some teams (including Tampa) and some pitchers to pursue the use of high heat as batters have adjusted to lower pitching.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. says that he expects Cliff Lee to deliver significant on-field value next year, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Lee is on track in his rehab plan, which currently means continued rest. As Gelb notes, Lee’s situation will likely not begin to clarify until he begins throwing this fall and begins to ramp up for the spring.
  • The Mets have issued a statement denying the allegations of former executive Leigh Castergine, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports. “We have received and reviewed the complaint,” the statement reads. “The claims are without merit. Our organization maintains strong policies against any and all forms of discrimination.” In a rather scathing assessment, meanwhile, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports argues that MLB should investigate immediately and act firmly in the wake of Castergine’s troubling allegations. As Passan notes, Mets COO Jeff Wilpon — whose alleged statements and actions form the basis for much of the lawsuit — not only occupies a key position with the team, but also sits on the boards of MLB Enterprises and MLB Network.

NL West Links: D’Backs, Lincecum, Hanley

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With Tony La Russa in place and looking for a new GM for the Diamondbacks, the organization still faces fundamental questions about how it will incorporate statistical analysis into its decisionmaking, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. La Russa’s recent comments indicate that he is more interested in adding lower-level front office pieces with analytical backgrounds, notes Piecoro, which is a strategy that runs the risk of being ineffectual.

A bit more from the NL West…

  • Grant Brisbee of SB Nation’s McCovey Chronicles opines that at this point, former ace Tim Lincecum couldn’t even be trusted with a postseason roster spot for the Giants. He certainly won’t get a rotation spot, notes Brisbee, and the spot starter/long relief role will likely go to Yusmeiro Petit, with Ryan Vogelsong rounding out the rotation. Even in a middle relief role, Hunter Strickland’s overpowering fastball (which has averaged 98 mph this month) could be more valuable than what Lincecum could bring.
  • Hanley Ramirez does not seem to be handling the final stretch leading up to his free agency very smoothly, writes Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Ramirez refused to talk to reporters following a two-error game Tuesday, and even on Monday, he turned away reporters from the Dodgers’ own regional sports network. Manager Don Mattingly implied that he thinks Ramirez might be burned out from answering the types of questions associated with his current situation, as he’s never been this close to free agency before and hasn’t dealt with the situation in the past.

AL West Notes: Manager Searches, Aiken, Astros

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A pair of AL West teams are without permanent managers at the moment, following the Astros’ firing of Bo Porter and Ron Washington’s abrupt an unexpected resignation from his post with the Rangers. Some new candidates are emerging for the positions, as Mike DiGiovanna tweets that Angels bench coach Dino Ebel is a candidate to fill the void in Houston. Meanwhile, the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher tweets that Rangers first base coach and former big league catcher Bengie Molina is a candidate for both managerial openings. Molina would continue a growing trend of recent big league backstops becoming managers, following in the footsteps of Mike Matheny (Cardinals), Mike Redmond (Marlins) and Brad Ausmus (Tigers).

Here’s more out of the AL West…

  • Angels manager Mike Scioscia spoke highly of Ebel and Molina as future managers to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. Of Ebel, he said, “He’s always been an incredible teacher, has a great passion … There’s no doubt that someday he’s going to be a terrific manager.” He offered similar praise for Molina, who served as Scioscia’s catcher when the Halos won the World Series in 2002: “…just has an incredible way of connecting with people, has a great understanding of the pitcher-catcher relationship, understands the offensive part, and I know he’ll eventually get an opportunity.”
  • Josh Hamilton spoke with Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News regarding Washington’s resignation and had nothing but praise and well wishes for his former skipper. “He was always very enthusiastic, always on your side and encouraging, so you always want to play for a guy like that.”
  • Commissioner Bud Selig fielded a question on recent rumors that the Astros could still sign Brady Aiken when speaking to reporters, including the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich (Twitter links). Selig himself may have fueled some speculation with recent comments to the San Diego media, but that sounds inadvertent based on his response: “I didn’t mean to create confusion although I guess Ive been known to do that,” said Selig. Drellich notes that it remains “very, very unlikely” that Houston would be allowed to sign Aiken.
  • Russell A. Carleton of Baseball Prospectus examines the theory that the culture of losing could have long-term negative impacts on the talent the Astros have already promoted to the Major Leagues. Using an adapted Cox Regression model, Carleton concludes that a player is seven or eight percent more likely to flame out after spending three years in a losing environment. However, he concludes that while the end result may be one extra player flaming out, the Astros could likely recoup that value via the extra money they’ve been garnering in the draft and international signing arenas by the virtue of the poor records. While there could be negative effects, Carleton writes, fixing them likely isn’t worth it from a mathematical standpoint.

Reds Acquire Shackelford, Astin To Complete Broxton Trade

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The Reds announced that they have acquired right-handers Kevin Shackelford and Barrett Astin from the Brewers to complete the Jonathan Broxton trade. Cincinnati originally sent Broxton to Milwaukee in exchange for a pair of players to be named later on Aug. 31 — the last significant deal before the deadline for newly acquired players to be eligible for postseason play.

Shackelford and Astin ranked 21st and 22nd, respectively, among Brewers prospects heading into the 2014 season, according to Baseball America. However, neither player cracked Milwaukee’s top 20 list on MLB.com’s midseason list.

The 25-year-old Shackelford is the more advanced of the two prospects, as he reached Double-A this season and posted a combined 3.69 ERA with 5.2 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 70 2/3 relief innings between that level and Class-A Advanced. BA felt that he should have reached Triple-A, if not the Majors, this season in their preseason scouting report, but Shackelford’s Double-A struggled (4.86 ERA in 50 innings) may have held him back. BA noted that he can touch 97 with his fastball and gets whiffs on his slider, making him a potential late-inning reliever. They did, however, note that the slider can be inconsistent — something he’ll likely look to improve upon in 2015. However, the fact that he’ll turn 26 next season and has yet to reach Triple-A suggests that Shackelford is far from a sure thing to end up as a consistent piece in the Cincinnati bullpen.

Astin, 23 next month, was the Brewers’ third-round pick in 2013. He served as Arkansas’ closer as the team pushed to the College World Series, and BA noted that while he may not be durable enough to remain a starter, he could move quickly as a reliever. Indeed, Astin posted a 5.55 ERA as a starter this season in 96 2/3 innings, but he turned in a terrific 2.27 ERA in 26 relief innings. Overall, he posted a 4.96 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 121 1/3 innings at Class A.

While neither prospect is particularly highly regarded, GM Walt Jocketty picked up a pair of arms that could potentially help his bullpen within the next two years, and he shed more than $11MM in salary in the process. To this point, Broxton has done his job for the Brewers, firing four shutout innings with four strikeouts and no walks, helping to bridge the gap to closer Francisco Rodriguez.

Cardinals Outright Audry Perez, Rafael Ortega

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Here are today’s minor moves and outright assignments from around the league…

  • The Cardinals have outrighted catcher Audry Perez and outfielder Rafael Ortega, both of whom were designated for assignment on Monday, according to the MLB.com transactions page. The 25-year-old Perez is a career .270/.293/.413 hitter in the minor leagues and has seen sparing time in the Majors, appearing in just three games and totaling just three plate appearances. Ortega, once a somewhat promising prospect with the Rockies, was claimed off waivers by the Cardinals this past offseason following an injury-shortened 2013. (The Rangers had first claimed him, indicating that multiple clubs had some degree of interest.) He hit .249/.331/.346 in 414 Double-A plate appearances and made a brief appearance with Triple-A Memphis as well. The speedster does have six big league plate appearances — each of which came with the Rockies back in 2012.

Injury Notes: Alvarez, Pedroia, Iglesias

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The Pirates announced, via press release, that Pedro Alvarez has been diagnosed with a stress reaction of the fourth metatarsal in his left foot — an injury that comes with a four to six week recovery timeline. The powerful Alvarez had lost playing time to Josh Harrison at third base but has still seen the occasional start at the hot corner plus some starts at first base and DH (during interleague play, of course). That injury seems likely to sideline him for the remainder of the 2014 season, meaning that his campaign will come to a close with a rather disappointing .231/.312/.405 slash line and 18 homers.

Here are some more notes pertaining to notable injuries from around the league…

  • Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia will undergo surgery on his left hand tomorrow, thereby ending his 2014 season. It’s been a rough few weeks for Pedroia, who also missed time due to concussion-like symptoms at the end of August after an on-field collision. The ’08 MVP batted .278/.337/.376 this season, which despite translating to league-average production (101 OPS+), is the least-productive full season he’s had in terms of rate stats.
  • While the Bucs and BoSox received bad news today, the Tigers got some good news regarding Jose Iglesias’ injuries, writes Chris Iott of MLive.com. Iglesias was cleared for lower body workouts after receiving a CT scan and MRI that showed the stress fractures in each of his shins have healed. The defensive wizard has not been able to do any lower body work while dealing with the injuries but will now accelerate his rehab with a physical therapist in Miami before beginning an offseason training program in November. He appears to be on track for a 2015 return, says Iott, who spoke with head athletic trainer Kevin Rand and was told this was “the best possible outcome we could hope for.”

Mets Notes: Payroll, Roster, Fences, Lawsuit

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While the Mets look to have primed themselves for a potential run next year, the organization’s expectation is that payroll will remain in the low-to-mid-$80MM range, reports ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Insider link). A major portion of that (just over $54MM) is already promised to veterans David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Bartolo Colon, and Jon Niese. And several players — including Daniel Murphy, Bobby Parnell, Dillon Gee, and Lucas Duda — will be in line for sizeable salaries through arbitration. GM Sandy Alderson said recently that the team will “have some flexibility,” Olney says it seems likely that the front office will need to look for buy-low options to fill its various areas of need.

Here’s more from New York:

  • The Mets face a fairly significant upcoming roster crunch, writes Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. Players like Wilmer Flores, Jenrry Mejia, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Andrew Brown, and Cesar Puello will be out of options for the first time. And the 40-man will remain full heading into the fall since the team has only two free agents (Daisuke Matsuzaka and Bobby Abreu) and needs to accomodate returns from the 60-day DL (Matt Harvey and Bobby Parnell). Creating roster space for new additions and Rule 5 protection will require some tough, early choices for New York.
  • With no indication from the Mets that a large payroll expansion is coming, the club may hope for a production boost from a combination of internal improvements and shortened fences, writes Newsday’s Marc Carig. Though bringing in the fences again would obviously impact opponents as well — and has been in the works for some time — Carig notes that there could be some home-team benefits. In particular, reeling in a spacious right-centerfield might result in some additional home runs, given that several of the club’s best hitters thrive hitting to that alley. And if the team’s own rotation can reach its potential, the corresponding benefit to the opposition may not match the Mets’ own yield. For his part, Alderson emphasizes that the changes to dimension are designed solely to enhance the fan experience at Citi Field.
  • As it looks to transition back into contention, the club is facing a potentially difficult and embarrassing legal situation, as Selim Algar of the New York Post reports. Former head of marketing and ticket sales Leigh Castergine — the organization’s first-ever female senior vice president, per the report — has sued the club and COO Jeff Wilpon (son of owner Fred Wilpon) for allegedly firing her based on moral opposition to her becoming pregnant without being married. The suit apparently includes numerous specific details that, if proven, could conceivably have important implications for the team’s front office structure.

AL East Notes: Rookies, Pedroia, Cabrera, Rodriguez

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In a piece for Sports on Earth, MLB.com’s Jim Callis ranks the top dozen players from this year’s crop of rookies by their anticipated future production. In spite of his questionable elbow situation, Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees leads the way, with shortstop Xander Bogaerts of the Red Sox occupying the second slot.

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia is “probably likely” to sit out the remainder of the year and could be headed for another hand procedure, manager John Farrell said today in an appearance on WEEI (Twitter link). News of the increasing difficulty with Pedroia’s left hand and wrist emerged last night, with MLB.com’s Quinn Roberts among those reporting that a surgical option was on the table. “Surgery is one of [the options],” said Pedroia. “I could rest or continue to play or surgery. There’s three things we could do. We’ll come up with a plan the best we can that’s best for the team.” It is incumbent upon the team to act decisively to resolve Pedroia’s impairments, writes WEEI.com’s Alex Speier, especially since he is already entering the tail end of typical peak years of production. The star 31-year-old is mired in his worst season at the plate since becoming a regular (.278/.337/.376). On the other hand, he is still an elite defensive player and has racked up over 4 wins above replacement. Pedroia is owed $97.5MM (some of it deferred) over the next seven seasons under the extension he signed just over a year ago.
  • Blue Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera once again presents quite an interesting free agent case, as Mike Petriello of Fangraphs explores. Heading into his age-30 season, Cabrera is very well-placed in the upcoming free agent market, and Petriello thinks that a three or four-year deal makes sense in spite of Cabrera’s baggage. Some clubs will be willing to forgive his previous PED issues, and Petriello notes that a qualifying offer may not be a major impediment if teams with a protected first-round pick — he suggests the Phillies, White Sox, Astros, and Padres, and potentially the Reds and Mets — make a run at Cabrera. Ultimately, his value could settle somewhere in the range of three years and ~$40MM up to Curtis Granderson’s four-year, $60MM deal.
  • The Yankees are not far off from facing yet another round of questions with regard to embattled third baseman Alex Rodriguez, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Though simply cutting him loose surely has some appeal, given the uncertainty of his ability to perform (to say nothing of off-field considerations), Sherman notes that doing so would prevent any chance of recovering some portion of the remaining $61MM owed Rodriguez if his hip issues ultimately trigger an insurance payout. Sherman argues that the club should have Rodriguez report for training in October, ready to learn first base. The Yankees could then begin to see what he has left to offer, opening the possibility of using him on either side of the diamond and recouping what value there is left to be had from his ill-fated contract.

Yasmani Tomas Cleared By OFAC, Still Awaiting Free Agency

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24-year-old outfielder Yasmani Tomas has been cleared to sign by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. Tomas, who is aiming to be the latest high-dollar Cuban ballplayer, still requires a grant of free agency from MLB before he can agree to a contract.

Ranking Tomas seventh among prospective free agents, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes wrote recently that the intriguing talent could draw wide and varied interest around the game. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explained in reporting his defection, Tomas projects as a power-hitting corner outfielder with below-average speed. Though he may not be quite ready to appear immediately in an MLB lineup, the consensus seems to be that he is at least very nearly big league-ready.

Ultimately, Tomas offers the promise of a unique combination of power and age for a market in which both are treasured commodities. Given his age and experience, Tomas will not be subject to international spending limits, meaning that he will be a true free agent when he receives his designation from the league.

Two of Tomas’s countrymen — Rusney Castillo and Jose Abreu — recently landed deals guaranteeing better than $10MM a year over seven and six years, respectively, though both players were considered slightly more polished while also being older. Earlier Cuban ballplayer signings included younger, high-upside outfielders like Yasiel Puig (seven years, $42MM) and Jorge Soler (nine years, $30MM).

Tomas, of course, is a different player, with an overall profile that shares some attributes with each of those rough comparables. If nothing else, though, the steady rise in spending on Cuban emigres — related, in some part, to the remarkable MLB success of the above-listed and other Cuban players — shows that clubs are not hesitating to plunk down big dollars for international talent.

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