The defensive shift has drawn plenty of attention around the game, and a study from Steve Moyer of Inside Edge (written up for the Wall Street Journal) shows that it has, in fact, been effective overall. The most impactful efforts, according to the study, have come from the Astros, whose shifts have saved the club an estimated 44 hits on the year.
More from out west:
- That statistic serves as an interesting backdrop for the Astros’ newly-launched managerial search, given that former skipper Bo Porter played a role in implementing the club’s analytically-driven shifts. GM Jeff Luhnow — who is ultimately responsible both for driving the team’s defensive approach and for hiring and firing Porter — says that the team is inclined to add a skipper with an established track record, as Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. “We want major league experience as manager or major league experience as the bench coach,” said Luhnow. At present, the team has yet to conduct interviews or even request for permission to do so (for outside candidates). The hiring may extend into the offseason, he said.
- Diamondbacks reliever Brad Ziegler has undergone microfracture surgery on his left knee, which is a more significant procedure than had been expected, as Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Nevertheless, the veteran set-up ace is expected to be ready for the spring. The out-of-contention D’backs drew some criticism for not dealing Ziegler at the trade deadline, as his remaining contract ($5MM in 2015 and a $5.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout) seemed a solid asset.
- As the Diamondbacks begin their GM search in earnest, candidate (and current agent) Dave Stewart has yet to decide whether he’ll take an interview, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports, though it certainly sounds as if he will. But the longtime big league hurler says that he is definitely intrigued by the possibility of taking the helm, especially given the chance to partner with Tony LaRussa. “I’m very, very interested in it,” he said. “I love the idea of having the opportunity to build and build a successful team, and by successful I mean building a team to win a championship.”
- Outgoing Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers seems to be seriously considering staying on in a senior scouting role, though he tells Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com (Twitter link) that he is waiting to see who will take over in his former role. “We have to be simpatico,” said Towers.
The Diamondbacks are keeping Kevin Towers for his fluency in Spainglish. Good use of the word simpatico KT
MLB Players are eventually going to be forced to remember how to slap hit. Slap hitting is the counter to a shift. You move your dude, I hit a groundball to the hole you just made. The basic defensive configuration minimizes the ability to slap hit, so by definition any shift from that will increase the effectiveness of a slap. The more extreme the shift, the more effective a slap. MLB hitters moving back to slap hitting would essentially kill off the shift within a few years.
Can someone explain how if the shift is so effective is BABIP unchanged and still at high levels compared to all other eras in modern baseball history (1950’s until steroid era)
Yr-BABIP
2009-299
2010-297
2011-295
2012-297
2013-297
2014-298
There is no discernible trend in the last couple of years despite the number of shifts increasing exponentially these past 2 years
You’re looking for a bigger effect than there is. As the article states, the Astros have the best results and have saved 44 hits. That’s not substantial in a game where even the worst offensive teams will have well over 1,000 hits in a season.
For fun, I added up all of their numbers. There were 368 hits saved from the shift according to their data. At this point in the season, with a little under a month left to go, there have been 36,927 hits. That ratio works out to 0.99%.
In other words, the effect of the shift over every hit in a baseball season is inherently going to be lost in the noise. It’s going to be less than the random variation from season to season.
That said, it is a nearly free improvement. Four teams managed to lose hits, but the other 26 teams managed to save hits for doing nothing other than standing someplace else.
It’s not that it’s a big improvement — it’s that it’s an easy one.
It is just time for the D-backs to hire somebody out of Section 111. I am actually being quasi-serious. With the situation they are setting up in the front office for the foreseeable future, they will be hyperanalyzing every breath taken by the next gm anyway so why not give it to a person in the stands.
KT will only stay on if it’s someone he can control?
TBH if I was GM I would want him gone. He got fired for a reason, now move on.
Agree, In the real world when you get fired for not performing you don’t get brought back to be an “advisor”
The Astros’ managerial search is interesting. They want an experienced person–dugout experienced at the MLB level, but one who will manage on directive from the front office and the stat guys. That’s going to be interesting. There are many modern managers who do pay attention to advanced stats, but I really wonder how many of the are willing to take direction from the FO with that level of granularity.
The talent pool is extremely small (for what they are expecting). Only guy that comes to mind is Joe Maddon
Maybe Larry Bowa. He has become Sabermetric savy recently. Is old school and follows the above criteria?