MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good morning! We’ll get going around 1pm CT, give or take a couple minutes. Feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always.

Astros71

• Jake Meyers is staying, right?

Steve Adams

• At this point that’s my assumption, yeah. The Astros are already short in the outfield. I guess in theory they could try to swap him out for a less-proven LHH center field option, but I don’t know that such a scenario is really out there. Feel like he’s more or less locked in there by now.

Littell

• Why did I sign with the nationals? I could have gone anywhere else!

Steve Adams

• If it were true that he could have gone “anywhere else” for that same money or more, he probably would have. The market for Littell clearly wasn’t anywhere near what he and his camp set out hoping to find early in the season. I’m sure there are more competitive clubs that would’ve given him $7MM back in November/December. Probably a fair bit more than that on a one-year deal. But Littell was surely seeking two- and likely three-year deals at that point and wasn’t going to be open to something like 1/12 at that time, even if it was on the table.
• Littell has pitched a bunch of innings the past two seasons, but he’s a low-90s guy with his velo and had one of the lowest strikeout rates in the majors last year.I think he was worth more than this and definitely like it for the Nationals, but I’m not entirely surprised that the market just didn’t show up for him

MarioSoto

• Honest thoughts on the Reds?

Steve Adams

• Had one of the five best rotations in baseball prior to the Greene news. That drops them down a ways (though obviously there’s a lot of upside if it gets someone like Lowder into the rotation).I don’t love the bullpen. Their fixation on dedicating a significant portion of their limited payroll to one of the most homer-prone relievers in baseball and having him close games in their bandbox park is weird, but Emilio Pagan posted decent numbers last year (with the help of a few game-saving home run robberies).

  Offense should be improved with Geno there, possible full seasons of Stewart, Stephenson, Friedl … better health from Elly

• I think they’re probably behind Chicago and Milwaukee for me in the NL Central, but not by so much that a few breakouts for the Reds and/or a key injury or two elsewhere can’t make it a tight race. They should be in Wild Card contention at least.

Big Time

• Other than Giolito, what other free agents are out there that you are surprised don’t have a contract in hand right now?

Steve Adams

• Michael Kopech is probably the biggest one. Danny Coulombe, to a lesser extent.

Jesus Luzardo

• Thoughts on my new deal?

Steve Adams

• I’d have pegged him for something like Carlos Rodon money (6/156) in free agency (with an outside chance at seven years, depending how his 2026 goes), so getting him for five years seems like a nice win for the Phillies. But at the same time, Luzardo has had plenty of injuries throughout his career, and he was offered a pretty hearty nine-figure deal that spares him all the uncertainty surrounding the labor staredown and everything … I get it.

Preller

• Who can I still get for the rotation? Am I really banking on Walker Buhler and Randy Vasquez?

Steve Adams

• I think it’s more so banking on a combination of Vasquez, German Marquez, JP Sears, Griffin Canning, Buehler, Marco Gonzales and Triston McKenzie. Doesn’t seem like there’s much left, money-wise, so I wouldn’t expect much else in the way of a big acquisition

Lars GoodbaarAs

• As an Angel fan who doesn’t care about winning, wouldn’t Michael Kopech be a good cheap investment?

Steve Adams

• He’d be a good low-cost investment for pretty much whatever team signs him at this point.

Batman

• Absolute joke demoting Spencer Jones and living with Grisham off a career year in CF. Not sure what Jones has to do to get a potentially 40 HR bat in the lineup. Yankee fans got screwed!!

Steve Adams

• Jones struck out in 37% of his AAA plate appearances last year and hit .210/.281/.375 with a 42.5% strikeout rate from Aug. 1 onward (46 games, 176 plate appearances)
• He had a nice spring in 22 PAs (and homered in his first game after being sent to minor league camp). I don’t think it’s egregious at all to pass on just handing him the CF job.If you put both on the big league roster and committed to giving each of them 600 plate appearances, I’d bet on Grisham having the more productive season right now.

Loveable losers

• With Austin hurt and assuming Ballesteros and Shaw make the team. Who do you think gets the Cubs last 2 bench spots?

Steve Adams

• I’ll go Chas McCormick and (assuming he returns this week from the minor elbow issue) Jonathon Long

Long time first time

• Why do you think Luzardo over Suarez?

Steve Adams

• Younger, throws harder, misses more bats. That’s what teams pay for.

Broken Bat

• Lile is struggling with Nats in ST. Seemingly after thought. What do see his role to be? 4th outfielder?

Steve Adams

• I think he’ll hit plenty but have minimal to no defensive value. He’s a Jesse Winker type for me (albeit with fewer walks and more base hits) … defensively limited LF/DH who can make some money beating up righties

Cash3w

• I get going for Wentz/Elder as the Braves’ #5 starter, but given the Wentz injury, and if another one happens, does Elder become their #4? AA, the bat signal is shining in the dark of night. Go get a basic starter or push Ritchie!

Steve Adams

• I didn’t even understand passing on Littell/Giolito for Wentz/Elder/Suarez/Ritchie. They should be signing Giolito, or at the very least trying to get Corbin or Anderson on a NRI (though no guarantee a late-30s veteran like that will be OK with an NRI)

Outta Box

• Volpe and S.Jones for Elly. Who says no?

Steve Adams

• Reds without any real hesitation

Mister Met

• Soto, Ewing, and Benge for years to come but will it start this year?  Though with Soto, Benge, Taylor, and Tauchman, is there room for Ewing on the Mets roster without injury?

Steve Adams

• Ewing is 20 and only has a handful of games above A-ball. I don’t think he’s a major factor this season — maybe he’s on the August/September radar with a big few months.
• Benge will get his chance early in 2026, if not Opening Day. I’d try to find a way to get Tauchman on the roster, personally, but I clearly like him more than the market. I thought he should’ve been tendered a contract and at the very least signed to a big league deal in free agency

Philly Fanatic

• Bohm + low level guy lottery pick for Ashby, who says no?

Steve Adams

• Brewers
• They don’t have space for Bohm’s $10MM+ salary, even if they ship Ashby back the other way, and I’m not even convinced Bohm is markedly better than Luis Rengifo anyhow.

Zach

• Do you think 4 teams from the AL East will make the postseason?

Steve Adams

• I haven’t formally made my picks yet, but I imagine it’ll be three from the AL East

Loperfido time?

• Does Joey get his chance at full time at bats in Houston?   I think they gave up a lot to get him.

Steve Adams

• The fact that they acquired him and have minimal competition for him but still continue to pursue other LHH OFs pretty strongly indicates that’s not Plan A. But they’re not a lock to come away with that LHH OF, so there’s a chance Loperfido gets semi-regular at-bats early on, sure.

Matty Arnold

• My Rotation: 1. Woodruff   2. Miz   3. Priester   4. Chad Patrick   5. ????  Henderson, Harrison, Sproat, or Gasser for the 5? Do any others end up in the bullpen?

Steve Adams

• If everyone’s healthy, Henderson gets that five spot for me — but he’s already dealing with some elbow inflammation, and Priester seems like he has a good chance to land on the IL. Every team is going to have a lot of guys who start 10+ games for them. Brewers won’t be an exception.Team leaders in starts, health permitting, would be Woodruff, Miz, Priester, Patrick and Henderson for me — but Harrison (who I assume is next up), Sproat and Gasser will all make 8+ starts. I think Ashby and Hall end up in the ‘pen but feel Ashby could make some starts, too. Drohan could pitch in both roles.

Yoshida

• How much of Yoshidas deal would Boston have to offset in order for him to headline a package for Paredes?

Steve Adams

• If I were Dana Brown, I wouldn’t trade Paredes for Yoshida even if the Red Sox ate the entire contract.

Sad Reds Fan

• Could CES bring back a decent middle bullpen arm in a change of scenery move?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think so, no. There’s a good chunk of the league that would probably pass on claiming him off waivers.
• 26 years old, limited to the INF corners (primarily 1B), short side of a platoon, low walk rate, fair bit of swing-and-miss. It’s not a skill set teams want. Rhys Hoskins just took a non-guaranteed $1.5MM from Cleveland.

Brent

• Does Seattle have a problem with Raleigh and Arozorena?  Or was that all in fun, do you think?

Steve Adams

• I’ve been asked about this enough times that I feel compelled to answer one, but I have no idea. Arozarena’s public comments after the handshake that wasn’t were harsh, but I could just as easily see it being two teammates who are kind of having fun with this as it is two teammates who maybe don’t care for each other.Don’t think it matters a ton either way. Every team is a collection of 26 to 40 professional athletes. There’s no shortage of egos, clashing personalities, etc. Not every team is composed of best friends. A lof of teammates dislike each other and coexist.

  I think in a few months this will be a non-story, but I get that it’s a hot topic right now

Bill James

• Mark P never gave a direct answer, but do you think baseball is better or worse off since I created baseball-related sabermetrics and algorithms? Some people used to look at the back of a baseball card and make their entire assessment of a player, whereas once I popularized them, if an MLB GM did not go by the Bill James Handbook, they were ostracized and likely had their team finishing up in the cellar. Was baseball easier and more fun before me? I’ll hang up and listen.

Steve Adams

• I didn’t see Mark’s reply, but it’s a subjective question so of course there was no direct answer. If Bill James didn’t pioneer so much of the incorporation of data into baseball decision-making, someone else would have. The arrival of more sophisticated data to evaluate players was a foregone conclusion. Even fans who like things like pitcher wins/losses can acknowledge how flawed the stats are. A pitcher “win” can include 8 shutout innings and 16 strikeouts or 5 1/3 innings with 7 runs allowed — but on a day when your mound opponent was torched for 9 runs … someone was always going to come along and say “This is silly. Just like it’s silly to penalize a pitcher with an ‘earned’ run because his second baseman lost a pop-up in the sun”
• I grew up watching baseball in the 80s and 90s but love the influx of data in the modern game. The game itself remains fun to watch regardless or what information I’m using to determine player values and such. I just like baseball.

Black and Gold

• with abysmal 2025 year and still hitting 20 HR’s and 35+ SB’s is it possible that O’Neil Cruz can be a 40-40 guy?

Steve Adams

• Absolutely can be a 40-40 guy

MostlyToasty

• Danny Coulombe feels like a very underrated LHRP that you mentioned remains unsigned. 124 IPs of 2.47 ERA and a 9.7 K/9 the past three seasons. He’s dealt with some injuries–do you think that’s what could be holding up his market? Feels like there are plenty of teams that could use some lefthanded bullpen help.

Steve Adams

• I’m sure he’s had plenty of non-roster offers and wants a big league deal. It’s common for veteran free agents this time of year.Coulombe is consistently good, but he doesn’t throw hard, is in his mid-30s and has an injury track record of some note

Cards Fan

• Steve the fortune teller, please tell me the Cards will have one player hit 20 homeruns this year

Steve Adams

• They’ll have more than one!
• Put me down for Burleson, Wetherholt and Ivan Herrera

#1 Nats Fan

• With the Littell signing, what is the rotation? Grey looks ready to return and Irvin has been electric in ST so far. Will they put a trade package together with Jacob Young and Luis Garcia for a star 1st baseman?

Steve Adams

• Young+Garcia isn’t getting them that. I was surprised they even tendered Garcia a contract.Rotation should be Littell, Mikolas, Foster Griffin, Brad Lord and Jake Irvin, though I can see the case for Gray over Irvin. I don’t think either is particularly good, but Gray has more service time Irvin was brutal last year.
• Oh, Cavalli in there too somewhere, but I have minimal hope of him remaining healthy after all the arm troubles

Chi or Min

• Does Minnesota finish behind the White Sox?   Is it possible for both to lose 100?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think either will lose 100, but I have the Twins over the Sox still (albeit not by all that much)

Nick Kurtz

• Steve, I want to go home and play in Pittsburgh. Would Paul Skenes be a fair trade for me straight up?

Steve Adams

• Kurtz rules, but the Pirates can’t trade Skenes even in that scenario.

Southern States

• Steve, why do you still live in MINNESOTA? You could watch baseball almost year round if you moved down south. The weather is great, it’s not -30 in the winter, there’s less crime, and overall people are happier.

Steve Adams

• I like my kids to be near my whole family. Crazy, I know. Also — I like Minnesota for like 80% of the year.
• Winters are cold, but oh well. I also hate heat. (Which we get plenty of in the summers when it’s over 100)

Bobby Cox

• I think the Braves make a move when they are 100% profars appeal doesn’t go through and they save 18mill. I also thought cutch would have been a good signing, you?

Steve Adams

• There’s zero precedent for a suspension like this being overturned. They’re 100% operating under the assumption that they don’t have to give him that $15MM (or pay the $3MM in taxes).I think they probably just don’t think Giolito is much better than a garden variety fifth starter. I disagree, but I don’t think Giolito is especially good right now either, so I can’t fault them entirely.

Guest

• How soon would we expect 26 man rosters to be announced?  Waiting on a wetherholt 2b announcement

Steve Adams

• I’ll be shocked if Wetherholt isn’t on the Cards’ roster, but they probably won’t formally announce it until next week at least. No reason to do so two weeks out.

Twins Guy

• What would Trevor Larnach bring in a trade? A low leverage Reliver?

Steve Adams

• That’s about where I’d peg the value yeah

Loveable losers

• I would love to see the science behind people are just happier in the South

Steve Adams

• Haha — I glazed over plenty there. I like Minnesota, and I’m pretty generally surrounded by happy people.

EccentricATLFan

• To be fair re: Luis Garcia being tendered a contract, end performance wasn’t great, but a lot of the underlying measures actually were around the same as 2024 or even a bit better.  Personally not sure if it’s worth a nearly $7 million gamble (especially given his defense), but definitely arguments can be made why it wasn’t that shocking.

Steve Adams

• Teams just don’t really pay for 2B-only players, and Garcia is either a bad defensive 2B or middling defensive 1B who can’t hit lefties very well. He could have a role on a big league roster, but 2024 feels like a ceiling/outlier season. I have a hard time imagining him getting $7MM in free agency.

kramer

• Is COL still baseballs worst team in 2026? Over under on 110 losses?

Steve Adams

• Yes, but I’ll take the (slight) under on 110 losses

RJ

• Bold prediction. Angels win between 75 to 80 games. Adell, Neto and O’Hoppe all take the next step forward. Trout returns to All Star form. Soriano and Rodriguez, both put it all together this season.

Steve Adams

• Disagree on nearly every count, but love the optimism! Neto is great. Soriano is really underrated.

Sue Shi

• Do you see the Reds going after someone like Giolito for safety or just stick with the young options?

Steve Adams

• President of baseball ops Nick Krall already said he didn’t envision going back to free agency. I doubt they have much money to spend anyhow

FastballFreddie

• What am I getting from the Mets for an extension?  5-6 at $28-$30 per should do, right?

Steve Adams

• If 5/140 would’ve gotten an extension done, I feel like the Mets would’ve already done it.

Big John

• Luzardo 5 for 135.  Logan Gilbert from the Mariners gets 145 in an extension?

Steve Adams

• Luzardo’s 5/135 is all free agent seasons. Gilbert would have one more arbitration season included (assuming you’re not folding in this year’s salary).Let’s say he gets a raise to $16MM or so in his final arb year. The proposed extension here is offering around 4/129 for his first four FA years. It’s a nice AAV but I don’t think it gets him to sign.

Cardsfan1984

• I would add Gorman to the 20hr list for this year.

Steve Adams

• Maybe, but I feel like if he’s hitting well in July he’ll be traded. My thinking was he could have a 20-HR season but still not hit 20 as a Cardinal.

FozzieDBear

• The Red Sox have to make an outfield trade before the season starts, right? We have like five good OF, can only play 3-4 of them (DH) at a time, and could use players at other positions…

Steve Adams

• I don’t really think it’s a necessity. Look over in Houston. All spring all the talk has been “they’ve got to trade an infielder.” One small fracture in Jeremy Pena’s finger and the “logjam” is alleviated for the time being.I see it is a situation where you play Rafaela in CF, rotate Anthony/Duran/Abreu through the corners and DH, then mix Yoshida in as a pinch-hitter against righties or an occasional starter at DH if the OF has a couple guys banged up

  For me, it’s not so much a logjam as it is “four really good players (Anthony, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela) and a DH they’re going to need to move on from eventually

  I feel like I’m going to be accused of a smear campaign on Yoshida at some point since my responses regarding him are always so negative. I’d genuinely love to see the guy break out and make all detractors (myself included) eat their words. I don’t want guys to fail and go through all the mental hardships an d disappointment that come with it.

  I just don’t think he’s a great overall player presently

Dan

• When can players go on the 15 day IL?

Steve Adams

• Technically a 15-day IL stint can be backdated to three days prior to Opening Day. Most placements won’t become official until Opening Day, even if we’re aware they’ll be placed on the IL

jeff

• When a player goes on IL who pays their salary, the team or do they have insurance to cover the salaries if a player can’t play?

Steve Adams

• The team is responsible, though in some cases they’ll take out insurance policies on larger contracts.

Milo

• JHl move to right field might help him with his problems in center.

Steve Adams

• Lee moving to RF has been the plan since the Giants signed Bader

Tom G.

• Are trades for top prospects impossible? Seems like the Athletics could use a Joe Ryan. Is Ryan, Brooks Lee for Leo De Vries outlandish for either team?

Steve Adams

• The fact that the A’s even have Leo De Vries is proof that trades for top prospects aren’t impossible! They got him from the Padres for Mason Miller in July.But trades for the very top-of-the-food-chain prospects are indeed rare. I don’t think offering up De Vries for Ryan+Lee would be bad value for the Twins at all — but new Twins executive chair Tom Pohlad has been saying regularly since he took that post in December that the team will compete and he wants to win fans back.

  Trading Ryan + Lee for a 19-year-old shortstop doesn’t feel like it’d mesh with those comments haha

Royals

• I am cautiously optimistic about the offense.  4.3 runs per game on the road which is middle of the pack in 2025.  Moved in the fences at home. Jac and Jensen.  Like at the end of the year, the Royals are a top 10 offense?

Steve Adams

• I’d probably pick them to be a bottom-five offense before a top-10 offense. They’re so dependent on Witt. I like Jensen, and Caglianone obviously has huge upside. But Pasquantino is more good than great. Perez is getting older. Jensen+Jac aren’t proven at all yet. Garcia is very good. The outfield can’t still can’t looks like it can’t hit.It’s just a shaky group overall for me.
• I think something like 20th in the league is more likely than either extreme (top-10 or bottom-5)

BhamBrave

• Could the Braves make a deal with Profar to pre-pay his 2027 salary at a discount and have him just go away?

Steve Adams

• There wouldn’t be a deal to pre-pay him. They’d just release him and eat the 2027 salary. Might be the route they end up taking anyhow, but there’s no real benefit to doing so right now. He’s going to be on the restricted list, not counting against their payroll or 40-man roster anyway.A lot of times fans just seem to want the catharsis of “this guy was released” despite the fact that it doesn’t materially change anything in the short term.

  Atlanta’s paying him regardless. Might as well see if they can dump a couple million of his salary onto another team next winter or see if he can contribute in any capacity in ’27.

• Tigers fans for years have asked when they’ll just release Baez, for instance. They’d have had to pay him regardless, and he wound up posting 1.5 to 2 WAR last year thanks to a hot start at the plate and decent baserunning/defense.If they’d cut him, they’d still have paid him $24MM and been paying a different player some money to fill that role (perhaps not as effectively)

StrosFan

• If not Pena or Brown, who might Dana Brown try to extend while they’re young?

Steve Adams

• Ship has probably sailed on both of those guys. The Astros don’t have a ton of great young extension candidates.I could see Mike Burrows, I suppose. Maybe Brice Matthews a year from now if he has a breakout this year after forcing his way into the mix with a nice AAA showing (and/or with some help from injuries on the MLB roster)
• Alright, I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social for more questions.If you want more insight and analysis from the MLBTR team, you can look into our Trade Rumors Front Office subscription, which includes ad-free viewing, two chats per week exclusive to subscribers, weekly free articles/mailbags from Anthony/Tim/me, fantasy baseball advice, access to our suite of tools (Contract Database, Agency Database, GM Tracker) and a fair bit more.

  Have a good week everyone!