Earlier today, reports indicated that David Robertson is seeking a four-year deal in the mold of Jonathan Papelbon‘s $50MM contract, and the asking price on top lefty reliever Andrew Miller might not be much lower. Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com hears from a source that Miller is seeking “at least” a four-year deal and isn’t listening to any offers that have anything less than an “astounding” average annual value.
The Red Sox met with Miller’s camp this afternoon, Mastrodonato hears. Miller’s agent, Mark Rodgers of Frontline Athlete Management, told the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo that he saved his meeting with the Red Sox for last at this year’s GM Meetings (Twitter link).
Miller is coming off an elite season in which he posted a combined 2.02 with an incredible 103 strikeouts in 62 1/3 innings (14.9 K/9) between the Red Sox and Orioles. He dominated right- and left-handed hitters alike, averaging just 2.5 walks per nine innings with a ground-ball rate of 46.9 percent. That 14.9 K/9 mark is the highest in AL history for a reliever with more than 50 innings, as pointed out yesterday by ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, who also reported that Miller is drawing interest as a potential closer.
Of course, Miller doesn’t come with a lengthy track record of this type of dominance. He posted excellent ERAs in 2012-13, but in shorter samples (a total of 70 1/3 innings in that time) and while being shielded from facing many right-handed hitters. Miller also battled his command until this season, as he entered the year with a career BB/9 rate of 5.3.
All of this as covered in greater detail in Tim Dierkes’ Free Agent Profile of Miller. Though his track record is a bit spotty, Tim projected that Miller’s historic season would be parlayed into a four-year, $32MM pact.
It just seems like after these playoffs teams are going to vastly overspend for bullpen help. I never understood why teams don’t take subpar starting pitching prospects and throw them into the bullpen more often. The velocity ticks up, they only need one other pitch, and the transition is generally pretty painless.
Wade Davis
Betances
Even better…. Miller!
The next candidate might be B Morrow.
I miss the days when EVERY pitcher started in the bullpen and then moved into a starting role sans the elite prospects.
John Hart said 20 years ago that “closers fall out of trees”.
He was correct then, and he’s correct now.
Time after time “6th starter” types and “AAAA starter” types always seem to make the best relievers. And usually they can handle 2 innings or more on a reasonable basis!
I wonder who’s going to be the team that overpays Miller. Personally I’m worried that his new command is the results of a good season as opposed to a trend. I would not give him the type of money that he’ll cost. Friedman is too smart to do this and I’m not sure the tigers can afford him, so it will be interesting to see who does.
He had a great year, but I’m not sure that 1 good year really parlays into 4 years of high aav. He has no track record of success. Relievers are always having good years, and then fizzling. 4 years seems like a disaster.
It’s actually 1 and one half seasons, so its not just a fluke thing. He had an excellent 2013 going when he suffered a freakish ankle injury. For all the animosity surrounding Bobby Valentine, Miller credits him with having fixed his delivery into a repeatable motion. Ever since, Miller has been much improved in terms of his control, placement and effectiveness. As one whose watched Miller pitch quite a bit, I will say that he is no fluke. I’d pay him the $32MM over 4 years to come back to the BoSox.
his walks per 9 were still around 5. In 2014 they dropped to half of that. He still a good pitcher with the walks but not worth what he’ll get paid because they were cut in half in 2014.
Absolutely not for me. I thought he was interesting because he could be had for 2 years. He basically has one year as an elite non-matchup full season late inning reliever. Unless he really wants to sacrifice his aav to get 4 years I have a tough time imagining it.
So, he wants Robertson money?
And Robertson wants Papelbon money.
So who’s going to get Miller money?
Luke Gregerson
Gregerson is the smart move right now!
Does that mean Joba gets Luke Gregerson money?
So, if the Yankees don’t sign, Robertson, Miller, or Gregerson, then we have get Joba back? Okay, give Robertson ALL the money.
50 years/4MM it is!
You could always acquire Jonny Paps.
Papelbon? Lol
Don’t see a non-closer relief pitcher getting 4 years
I see Robertson getting a good deal but Miller is out of his mind
Giving Robertson “Papelbon money” would be nuts, giving it to Miller would be border line criminal. Miller has literally on pitched 93 dominant innings in his entire career.
Robertson and Miller could be waiting for awhile, heck Robertson was offered 15.3 QA that’s more than Mariano ever got!
And 400 mediocre innings
Remember that time when Detroit traded a bunch of junk to the Marlins for Miguel Cabrera, then the Marlins got rid of all the junk, only for most of said junk to become actual MLB players?
That was pretty cool.
That is probably one of the greatest one sided trades in MLB history
I’m still a fan of Larry Andersen straight up for Jeff Bagwell for GOAT one-sided trades.
If he gets 4 years whoever signs him to that contract is going to regret it late inning relief guys are impossible to predict and they are quite arguably the easiest position to replace guys like Jim Johnson, Daniel Bard, Jose Veras, Joel Hanrahan, Brian Wilson were all elite late inning arms at one point and the majority of them fell off and have been either absolutely horrible, decimated by injuries or just subpar.
Add Ernesto Frieri, Jordan Walden, Carlos Marmol and Brandon League to that list too.
Rafael Soriano
He was consistent for a good portion of his contract.
I never considered any of those guys elite at any point of their career except Daniel Bard (Fatigue before converting to a SP) and Brian Wilson (TJS). My problem with giving Miller more than a 2 year deal is his slider which I think will lead to him getting TJS sooner or later. Especially for someone who has had problems with his mechanics in the past.
I don’t think he’s going to fall off a cliff like the pitchers you mentioned though.
I may of went a bit overboard with the elite tag but those guys were solid serviceable arms and then out of nowhere they fell off a cliff, I’m not sure if Miller will fall off a cliff but I’m sure clubs look at how unpredictable a reliever can be and to give him 4 years for the unknown would be a mistake to me, I honestly think the risk factor alone could stop clubs from going anything more then 2-3 years
Marmol was ridiculous for a few seasons there. His slider was the most
unhittable pitch in baseball. He set the k/9 record and gave up one
homer in almost 80 innings one year.
I think it’s safe to call some of those guys elite.
3 should be the max and if it were up to me it would be 2 years and a option.
I have are time seeing either pitcher get 4/50m.
Read stuff like this, and you appreciate even more relievers like Rivera and Billy Wagner, who maintained a high level of performance over many years. This is a set-up guy who has fewer than 100 elite innings. Wow
and 400 sub par innings
Miller’s K/9 has been ridiculous over the past three season. I would give him a 3/$21MM contract. At best he becomes the team’s closer. At worst he becomes LHP specialist.
Brandon League money. If he signs at 3yr/21, I hope it’s my team.
My prediction – to the Cubs for 3 years, $25.5 million with an option for a 4th year at $9 million.
I remember when BJ Ryan went to Toronto for 4 years and $52M. Last 1 1/2 years no one wanted him for free. Cannot pay a one inning set up guy as much as a skilled position player that plays everyday. Especially one that had one great season and before that had control problems.
it was a 5 year deal if I remember correctly and I think he had TJ surgery and its what wiped him out? First year of deal I think.
You are right; 5 year but $47M deal. He did miss most of 2007. Ended up being released by Blue Jays in 2009 and finally by Cubs later that year.
Miller was amazing last year, but he had walk problems right up through 2013. Anyone that gives him 4 years and “astounding” money is nuts.
I’ll just sit here and wait for the “Andrew Miller Okay With a Three-Year Deal”, then wait a little longer for the “Andre Miller Desperate For a Two-Year Deal”, and finally “Andrew Miller Signs a One-Year Deal With [Team].”
I can see teams offering him 2-3 yrs.
I just don’t see it happening. There’s a chance he gets 4. If not 3. But it won’t go any lower than that. He had the best season of any reliever on the market, and he’s left handed. There are way too many teams looking for relief pitchers for him not to get paid.
Prediction: You will be getting up sooner than you think.
My prediction is 2 years with 2 $10m options and $250K buyouts
This is like real estate in the early 2000’s.
At some point the bubble bursts, and when it does, those that are leveraged – i.e. holing large payment commitments for out years – are going to be hurt as buyers will not that their property for anywhere near the price they’ve committed to.
Teams with home grown players that are reasonably priced are going to be incredibly successful in this environment.
Miller to White Sox, he can be the closer and we have no lefty’s in our bullpen.
White Sox should be looking at other areas first.
Of course, Miller doesn’t come with a lengthy track record of this type of dominance
See that’s just it about Miller, you don’t know what you are going to get.
I mean look at
Soriano for the Nats
Soria for the Royals, Rangers, and Tigers
Neftali Feliz Rangers
You really need to do your homework and even then it is a gamble.
At least that is how I feel about it!
seems to me like a guy who is always going to walk a fine line of iffy command. Too much risk for me on anything more than a 2 year deal.
Time to sign Gregerson!
I mean, he’s good, but does Miller really think any team is going to give that type of contract to just a bullpen guy? I could see if he was a closer, but even then I’m still skeptical.
He shouldn’t get it but a team might just give him a 4 yr deal.
Wow, the relievers this year are getting greedy. I can see Robertson getting a deal resembling what he wants but Miller has had one great year and he’s asking for seemingly the moon.
Is anyone mentioning that Papelbon’s contract is a horrible albatross for the Phillies, Johnson’s contract was a complete waste, and Joe Nathan’s was almost a complete waste?
No one is going to pay that kind of money for 60-odd innings a year
As good as Miller was in 2014, $8M a year would be vast overpay for a middle relieving/LOOGY type.
Andrew Miller isn’t even a closer. Ha!
Not many closers out there and they all want stupid money. Someone make a call to Dayton Moore, the Royals have the best three closers in baseball all on one team. Bring a legitimate power hitting RF or mid rotation SP.
Whichever team signs him, I hope it has a good pitching coach who is an expert at keeping steady mechanics!
I’d give him the 4 years at $32MM. He’s a pretty reliable mower of batters on both sides of the plate and can pitch you an inning and a third, or two-thirds. This is not a LOOGY we are talking about. What’s the value of a shutdown 7th and partial 8th over 50 to 60 appearances? He’s the Randy Johnson of the bullpen. It just makes sense, and his workload is so light that one shouldn’t question whether he can be durable for that long.