As expected, the Marlins have begun extension talks with star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports on Twitter. President of baseball operations Michael Hill tells Spencer that the team has “reached out” to Stanton’s representatives and that “negotiations are ongoing.”
Here’s more from the NL East:
- At present, the Mets are more inclined to fill their needs in the corner outfield via trade than through a free agent signing, reports Marc Carig of Newsday. New York is still hesitant to give up any of its best young talent in a swap. But veterans like Michael Morse, Alex Rios, and Torii Hunter all seem more like fallback options that the team would pursue if value can be had and nothing better has materialized. The Mets are said to prefer to add a right-handed bat.
- One other hypothetical possibility, Nick Markakis, is not presently engaged with the team in any way, according to Matt Ehalt of The Record (Twitter link).
- As they weigh their options at second, the Nationals are not unmindful of the Cuban market that has begun to materialize in recent weeks, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports. The primary possible targets, per Wagner, are 26-year-old Jose Fernandez and high-upside youngster Yoan Moncada. The 20-year-old Moncada will draw immense interest, with Ben Badler of Baseball America saying he is talented enough that he would be the odds-on favorite to go first overall in this year’s amateur draft (were he eligible).
- The Phillies are still the favorite to land Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, with A.J. Burnett’s decision to decline his option possibly burnishing Philly’s chances. That does not mean they are without competition, of course. Other clubs that have seen (or will soon see) Tomas since his showcase include the Rangers, D’backs, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox, and Mariners.
- Also per Heyman, the Phillies could clear yet more payroll space and add young talent through a deal for pitcher Cole Hamels, with the Cubs still showing interest in the lefty.
I want to live in a World where Jake Arrieta is the #3 Starting Cubs pitcher behind Jon Lester and Cole Hamels.
Personally, one of the disappointments during the trade deadline is seeing Amaro not do anything except ship out RobHer.
Cmon Amaro, give the Cubs what they want (Hamels) and get your A+ prospects in return. Win-win because we know that the Phillies are destined for the cellar next year anyway.
What would be comical is after asking the world for Byrd if he gives up Hamels for something mediocre.
Comical, and predictably Amaro. I think we set the expected return at Almora plus other pieces, and when it happens we watch the natives come for Amaro with pitchforks.
How about Addison Russell?
Russell, Edwards, and Vogelbach for Hamels seems like it would work on both sides. Cubs get Hamels and the Phils get their SS of the future, a solid SP prospect, and a high-pick 1B prospect. That said, it would make way more sense from the Cubs’ perspective to trade less to the Mets for a guy like Wheeler, Matz, or Syndergaard and then sign Lester.
Yea, I was kinda disappointed by the lack-of-move at the deadline also, but in reality its better to work out a Hamels-Cubs deal NOW, in the off season, rather than in the brief time at the deadline/waiver wire. The Cubs weren’t going anywhere anyway so there was no immediate rush to get a deal done…Same thing for Byrd, really, if Seattle was only offering one relief pitching prospect low in their system, it wasn’t worth trading Byrd just to make a deal
And Shields is the #4, I think I’d use Arrieta between the two leftys. Wait getting ahead of myself.
I want to live in a World where the Mets don’t make excuses but go out and create positive results. Your world seems more realistic.
One day I’ll wake up to a non-depressing headline featuring the Mets. Today is not that day.
Alex Rios, though!!!!!
If Stanton’s agents can get it, they should push for an opt out clause. He can secure a 10 year deal if he wants and then opt out in 5 years and get another 10 year deal if he’s healthy and productive. If a deal can’t be reached, and the Marlins trade Stanton, somebody’s farm system will be left decimated.
He certainly should get an opt out if it’s less than 10, he is that young. Either way if he stays healthy he is going to break $200MM just because he is so young.
his agent should look for a no trade clause and if not forget it
I disagree. If the contract is a 10 year deal with an opt out after 5 then there is really no reason for a NTC.
Why not trade for Van Slyke?
Because he has to be available. I can see 29 teams that are interested in trading for him. All the M’s fans that I chat with want Van Slyke. Well, line up. He’s not coming cheap.
Thought I read more than once that he was on the market. Apologies.
That would be interesting. Wow, just looking at the Dodgers Cot’s page. They owe $197M to 14 guys right now for 2015. They need to move all three of their OFers now if they can. Crawford, Kemp and Ethier are signed for over $60M.
Van Slyke has value because he can play the OF or 1B if Gonzalez goes down. That’s another doozie of a contract.
He isn’t worth much more than a “B” prospect or a BP arm
Van Slyke is a B prospect? He’s got great value. He’s 27 has a ton of team control and OPSd .910 in about 250 PA’s last year. If he was going to be cheap he would have been dealt already.
The Mariners got Morrison for a BP arm and he had attitude and injury issues.
He is a platoon player that backs up Ethier, enough said.
He “could” be a good platoon OF – and I like him, but to say he’s so valued that teams are lining up to get him, then why is he the 5th OF on the Dodgers, and if they keep Pederson, ranks 6th.. and no one carries 6 OF until September.
Agree, Mattingly did a good job working in his time in opportune matchups. If you take a long look at his numbers, a great game in Cinci and a hot series in Colorado inflates what amounts to a small sample size. To deal for him at a premium and expect more production than he has given would be buying fools gold.
That’s why no one is dealing for him. He’s worth more than his perceived value. He needs more ABs at the major league level. Why sell low when the Dodgers don’t have to.
Does he have value no doubt. I think the Dodgers are maximizing him. To deal a Montero for him would be an overpay IMO.
That could be very true. So a deal likely wouldn’t be a one for one deal but multiple pieces to create equal value, no?
Even regressing heavily, he’d be the best hitting OF on the Mets by a lot. He also plays 1B well.
And yet he was the 2nd best OF on the team after Puig.
He’s already a “good” platoon player…. hence the 20 HR and 4 WAR in 395 MLB at bats. To think anybody is getting him for a B prospect is laughable. And his lack of playing time has nothing to do with his talent level or production, it has more to do with the Dodgers having Puig, Kemp, and $40 million invested in Ethier and Crawford. There’s nowhere for him to play. Now they add Joc to the mix. Those guys making the coin are going to play, that’s just a fact of life. Van Slyke is young, cheap, has versatility, and is already a very productive player. If they move him they’re getting some good pieces back.
That’s on the Dodgers. He’s the best OF bat if he’s in the Mets org and likely the 2nd best OFer overall. It’s all relative.
2.8 WAR in only 298 ABs? He’s far better than Ethier.
Heck, he would be the best player on the Mets hands down that’s how bad the Mets are.
He was the 2nd best OF on the Dodgers after Puig in 2014 and has a career 134 wRC+. He’s basically Jayson Werth.
He is the 5th OF, good vs LH in a limited role. More like Hairston or Denorfia
He was their 2nd best OF in 2014. Hairston put up negative WAR; Van Slyke put up a higher WAR than Kemp and had the same wRC+ as José Bautista and Giancarlo Stanton. You must be talking about a different Van Slyke, I guess. I’m talking about the Dodgers OF who absolutely killed the ball in 2014. Also, I have no idea who Danforia is; is he a retired player?
Thanks for correcting the spelling mistake – edited
Take away games against Wade Miley and Tony Cingrani and he is very pedestrian.
Vs the two listed
9/16 with 6 HR 9 RBI
All other games:
54/196 with 5 HR 20 RBI
He is a back up OF nothing more, he cant beat out Crawford or Ethier for an everyday job.
What about his success in 2013 or his repeated success at AAA? He’s clearly better than Hairston, Denorfia, Cuddyer, or Ríos.
Denorfia is going to be 34 next year, and put up an OPS of .610 this year, 300 points less than Van Slyke. And so what if he battered Wade Miley? He’s a major league pitcher and if you take any bench player and pull his big games off the card of course his numbers are going to take a hit. He has put up a 3.8 WAR in 395 ML at bats, is that all because he had a good game against Wade Miley? And the reason he has not received playing time is because I don’t know if you’ve heard but the Dodgers are paying Crawford and Ethier $40 million per… pretty sure they are going to get some hacks. On about 25 other teams Van Slyke would be an every day player after the numbers he’s put up in his major league time, and in the minor leagues. (where he put up huge numbers, against RH AND LHP.)
SVS is a good ball player, a solid 4th OF, and would be welcome on just about every team. But he is not a player you build your off season around, 5 years he bounced between AA and AAA in the PCL he will hit HR.
Denorfia had a down year, he is a short side portion of a platoon, nothing more.
Got to love the Mets. A team within New York City and is always on a budget. They have great pitching but all they do is talk about trading them. They are going to continue their cycle of mediocre if they don’t start showing some green.
And yes, a payroll of $82 million is not good enough. Royals spent more than them last year and they are a low market team.
And when they do spend it they blow it.
Owners go bankrupt, yet don’t sell team. Easily the most incompetent duo in sports.
but Bud is friends with Fred so it;s all good
Just terrible owners. They’re going to be good though. Real good, and soon.
Yeahbut. NYC? It’s Queens. So…
Go on?
the mets have one of the worst front offices in baseball. its nothing but a good old boy network where friends are hired to jobs they aren’t qualified for. it shows. time to clean house. FACT
Absolutely incorrect. The Mets front office is beholden to one of the worst OWNERS in baseball. The front office has assembled a fantastic farm system in only a few years time, trading overvalued talent (Beltran, Marlon Byrd, R.A. Dickey) for some of their finest prospects. They have drafted well and have made generally good signing in the free agent market (with the major exception of Granderson, probably).
I’ll agree with the trades but to say they have drafted well is a joke. Other than Harvey and deGrom they haven’t had one draft pick play any meaningful time in the bigs since 2009. And zero since 2011 when the current regime took over in earnest. The scouting system is a problem. It’s easy to blame the owner but others need to be held accountable as well.
Nimmo, Dom Smith, and Conforto are all borderline top 50 prospects in baseball. That’s a pretty good 3 of 4 years drafting in the first round for Alderson and co. Throw in Plawecki as a great supplemental choice.
Let’s not forget Plawecki and Matt Reynolds – both of those guys have looked great so far too.
Yeah, Alderson has never accomplished anything lol. Except being one of the most respected executives in all of baseball and building a championship team in Oakland out of nothing. And now he has built a loaded farm system ranked universally as one of the best in baseball. FACT
Keep drinking the kool-aid.
Kool Aid from where? The fact truck?
There is no way the Mets have a loaded farm system nor are they ranked as one of the best any more.
Law has them at 4 last time I checked. BP and BA had them around 6. This was during the last month of the season. Edit: Law had them top 4 this August, just looked it up. Also a little birdie told me they will likely be top 5 when BA does their’s in the coming week. Is that good enough?
I wonder if the Phillies are looking to dump Birds salary. He would be a huge upgrade in right field for us and has proven he can play in NY. Right handed and has the right number of years left on his deal.
They were asking for good prospects for him at the deadline. RAJ wasn’t just looking for salary relief.
The mets need a lead off hitter and a table setter. How about a deal for Jose Altuve? Is that too far fetched? I’d imagine a deal could look like this: Murphy, Herrera and Montero for Altuve and Sipp? Thoughts?
no
No as in not too far fetched? 🙂
nope
Altuve isn’t going anywhere. And even if he was, that package is way too light. Maybe a guy like Revere would be more realistic for the Mets?
No thanks on Revere. His bat is nowhere near a corner outfield spot. What could get the Mets Altuve? Murph is an all star, Herrera will be a stud, and Houston would be getting a solid number 3 SP. Throw in Plawecki?
True. Honestly, the starting point would probably be deGrom. Then add two of Wheeler/Herrera/Murphy. No way the Mets would want to make that trade. The Astros just got done rebuilding and Altuve is a young face of the franchise player, so no team is realistically going to pry him away.
Yeah true. That stinks. I would love to see him in a Mets uniform. I wouldn’t trade deGrom for Altuve straight up though haha. I’ll stick with Murph
For whom? deGrom, Wheeler, and Herrera would get the Mets nearly any baseball player in the game – the Marlins would trade Stanton for that in a second. That’s realllllllly unrealistic. For Wheeler, deGrom, and Herrera, the Angels might even consider trading Trout. It really is an unbelievable scenario.
Revere is a .300+ hitter than gives you 40-50 SB’s.
Left Field is where he is best suited, and he would come cheap (its his 1st year of Arb) and team controlled. He would also only cost a Starter that is not in the Mets plans… someone like Steven Matz?
Revere for Matz would be such a ridiculously one-sided trade, I don’t even want to comment further. Matz profiles similarly to Hamels. Revere is arguably worse than Matt Den Dekker and Kirk Nieuwenhuis, two lefty CFs the Mets already have.
He’s a AA Pitcher, there is no profiling to someone like Hamels.. He’s a “prospect” – and one the Mets have no room for even in a couple years when/if he’s ready. And Revere would play LF – his natural position.
Look… This convo started because the Mets need a leadoff hitter. Revere bats .310 with 50 SB. Sounds like the lead-off man the Mets can use… and when the Phillies traded for him, they gave up a proven starter (Worley) and a bonafide AAA prospect Trevor May, both of whom are MLB Pitchers now.
Matz is still 2 years away and just a prospect.
Ohh.. did I mention that the Mets have like a dozen pitchers better/ready now or next year and can afford to trade him?
Revere is a worse player right now than Matt Den Dekker; he has no power and can’t get on base. Lead off hitters need to get on base. Revere would be a terrible leadoff hitter on a team trying to compete. Den Dekker will have a higher OBP, put up better power numbers, and field at least as well as Revere. Let’s not forget that Matt Den Dekker’s 2014 season was offensively better (rate stats) than any Major League season Revere has ever had.
DeGrom + a prospect or Wheeler by himself would get Altuve.
You’re dreaming on Altuve. The Astros aren’t going to trade him. They have some very good prospects and he is the leader of that team. It is team. They aren’t going to deal him to the Mets or anyone else
Yeah I am dreaming.. I just looked at his contract, too. He is signed so cheaply. Dang
I’m not sure Altuve would be available, and if he was, it seems like the team acquiring him would be trading for him at his peak value. Can he replicate that BABIP going forward?
More palatable; Fowler for Murphy
The Cubs would have to convince Hamels to waive is no trade clause, which might not be as hard as it would’ve been a year ago. However, the Cubs have one big obstacle in a trade with the Phillies for Hamels: the lack of high-end pitching prospects. Due to their own lack of pitching prospects, only really having Aaron Nola, the Phillies have to get a high end pitching prospect who isn’t far away. The Cubs top prospects are all position players. The Cubs would have to either acquire a pitching prospect in another trade or get a 3rd team involved in the deal that would send the pitching prospect to the Phillies.
Option B: Maybe RAJ knows he needs a high-end pitching prospect and deals Hamels without getting one, anyway…
It would be easier for the Cubs to just sign Lester; Lester and Arrieta would be a 1+2 comparable to the best in the game. Of course, they could also trade for Hamels for a lot less than what most Phillies fans are expecting; that has to do completely with Hamels’ salary – not with how good he is as a pitcher.
Phillies need a big change, and Tomas and Russell (and Crawford) would be nice to build around for the future. It would be a start for sure.
Braves… they should try to get Markakis or Alex Rios… or trade BJ Upton and Gattis for Colorado’s Gonzales.
Just saying!! lol
No one wants BJ Upton.
It’s funny how people think getting rid of your team bad players will bring good players in return
I would not put too much stock in the Phillies being the front runner for Tomas. Savvy GMs stay quiet and in the background until the last minute.
As a Mets fan, I would be ecstatic if they get him. It really looks like he’s not nearly as good as Abreu, Puig, Céspedes or Soler.
If Miami is serious about extending Stanton a full no trade clause is a must.
And a opt out clause.
If they give him both an opt out clause AND a no trade clause then the Marlins will ask for a discounted price on his contract.
The Marlins will be lucky if Stanton signs long term at all, they certainly wont be getting a discount.
Need to bring up the international draft again.
Look how the rumored teams are for the big name players in the article above. All with huge cable TV revenue. Why is there a draft for domestic players but not international? And if it’s the players union….why? The international players are taking money that domestic players could be getting. But mostly – it makes for an unlevel playing field, and in time will hurt MLB with fans in non-large market cities.
I’m not sure what you mean by saying that international players are taking money that domestic players could be getting. What do you mean by that?
To the Phillies: Bryant / Baez / Alcantara / Jokish or Straily
To the Cubs: Hamels / Franco / Brown / Revere /
CUBS: (based on Fangraghs (Steamer) 2015 Projections)
1) Revere (CF) – 3 HR / 42 RBI / 37 SB / .285
2) Castro (SS) – 12 HR / 63 RBI / .274
3) Solar (RF) – 24 HR / 82 RBI / .266
4) Rizzo (1B) – 29 HR / 86 RBI / .271
5) Franco (3B) – 19 HR / 65 RBI / .251
6) Brown (LF) – 20 HR / 70 RBI / .255
7) Valbuena (2B) – 16 HR / 65 RBI / .240
8) Castillo (C) – 13 HR / 48 RBI / .243
9) Lester ~ Hamels ~ Arrieta ~ Wada ~ Wood (Hendricks/Doubront/Turner)
PHILLIES:
1) Rollins (SS) – 13 HR / 52 RBI / 20 SB / .237
2) Utley (1B) – 14 HR / 63 RBI / .258
3) Byrd (RF) – 18 HR / 67 RBI / .243
4) Bryant (3B) – ( N/A )
5) Tomas (LF) – ( N/A )
6) Baez (2B) – 29 HR / 74 RBI / 18 SB / .226
7) Alcantara (CF) – 15 HR / 61 RBI / 23 SB / .245
8) Ruiz (C) – 8 HR / 43 RBI / .260
9) C. Lee ~ FA ~ FA ~ Williams – Buchanan (Nola/Pettibone/Biddle/Morgan)
You must be a Phillies fan huh?
I was reading a phillies board where they were asking for Russell, Bryant and Soler for Hamels…that is nuts. Amaro is usually one to get screwed over in trades, but Cubs FO will just move on if they ask for too much. I’d rather forfeit the 2nd round pick and sign a Scherzer or Shields instead of totally depleting the farm for Hamels.
You mean 3rd round pick after the Cubs land Martin
I’m good w/ my cubs landing Martin…but you never know.
I have your Cubbies landing Lester, Martin, and a back end innings eater. (Kendrick?) Toss in a utility IF and CF.
Also expect Vilbuena to be dealt and a parting of ways with Jackson
While I don’t think that will be the end result – I do feel it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to go in asking for at least 2 of those (because I feel like the first offer should always be well above what you’re actually looking for). As far as RAJ being on the losing side of trades – the facts don’t support the “usually”. He’s made 6 big trades in his tenure: for Cliff Lee, for Halladay, send Lee, for Oswalt, for Pence, and send Pence. He’s (seemingly) won 3 of those (for Cliff, for Halladay, for Oswalt) – and lost 3 (send Lee, for Pence, and send Pence). Although, I could argue that the for Pence is still too early to call. Obviously, the worrisome part is that he’s lost the trades where he sends away the MLB player, but he’s pretty much even in “big name” trades during his tenure.
what about two of those three for 4 years of Hamels…You’re going to sign one of the TOP 3 FA pitchers anyway, so trading for Cole is just an added bonus to that rotation long-term. I agree, I think those three is a little exorbitant but two is definitely reasonable
It’s realistic if the Phillies eat at least 60-70% of the remaining salary. If the acquiring team pays the full salary, it would be tough for the Phillies to ask for more than one of those three prospects. Realistically, a Russell+Edwards deal would be feasible from the Cubs’ perspective.
You’re not getting Bryant and Baez for Hamels, a good prospect and two mediocre / bad players. Stop it.
Brown .255 with 20 HR? good luck with that
Brown’s defense should also be taken into consideration. I may be wrong but I think he was one of the worst defensive OF in the game last yeat.
You are right. Fangraphs grades his defense as 50 out of 56 for OF with 500+ PA.
And the worst (56 out of 56) in WAR
Cubs aren’t trading Bryant. The only player I could see them trading Bryant for would be Chris Sale (because of his talent level and ridiculous contract). But I don’t see the ChiSox moving Sale, either.
A more realistic trade for Hamels would be for Almora, Pierce Johnson, Jen-Ho Tseng, and Eloy Jimenez. Maybe throw in a AAAA starting pitcher from the Cubs.
I just cannot wrap my head around the idea that a TOP-TIER, PROVEN MLB left-hander, an ACE on that Chicago staff, for FOUR years at better-than-market value is not worth TWO of Bryant, Soler, Baez, or Alcantara…This HAS to be a case of over-valuing prospects, doesn’t it? I certainly don’t think I’m overvaluing Cole Hamels, am I?…I don’t know Cole’s advanced stats and peripherals off the top of my head, but as a Phillies fan I have seen this guy go out on the mound and be a consistently above-average pitcher for a long time…Consistency…You KNOW when Cole goes out there he’s not going to get rocked, which is more than you can say for some of the other dominant pitchers in the game…I’m going to miss him if he goes but I feel like the guy’s performance, age, and contract scenario HAS to be able to bring back two of Chicago’s top prospects…How can I be wrong on this?
You are not overvaluing Hamels, but undervaluing the prospects. Just because the contract is fair, I can count on 1 hand the number of teams with the prospects and financial muscle to take on Hamels. In the case of the Cubs, try Baez/Russel, Almora and 2 B prospects
even that would be an overpay for the Cubs, IMO. As you said, the market for Hamels is fairly thin because of his contract (which isn’t a bad contract, just a big one) and because pitching can be had this year for just money.
the trade market for him pretty much boils down to the Cubs, Red Sox and Dodgers, and because of that i don’t see any of them offering more than 1 top flight prospect, plus lesser pieces for him then forcing the Phillies to pick their proverbial poison.
The Phils don’t need to deal Hamels. That is their leverage. Even with his contract he is worth 2 top 50 prospects and filler prospects depending on who headlines the deal
no, they don’t… but they do need to deal him a lot more than the Cubs need to acquire him, all things considered. the cubs aren’t in ‘win now’ mode yet, and David Price looms large on the FA market next year as a viable alternative.
On the contrary – he is significantly overvaluing Hamels because he is looking at performance, not surplus value. Hamels is being paid fairly with his $144 million contract but unless the Phillies plan to eat a major portion of that, they will not get multiple top prospects back.
He’d bring back most teams top 2 prospects. Except for the fact that the Cubs top 2 prospects (by the way, I want nothing to do with Alcantra – he looks like a utility guy – and I don’t love Baez either because of his swing and miss potential), are two of the top prospects in baseball (like top 5-10 overall). I’ve said it before, Hamels will probably net you a prospect in the top 25, another in the 25-75 range (where the sum of the 2 prospects ranking adds up to about 60 – i.e. the 10th and 50th prospects), and then 2 more in the team’s top 15 (maybe some filler thrown in, as well). Yes, he’s consistent; yes, he’s an ace; and yes, he’s a lefty, but prospect value is at an all-time high right now, and that’s the most likely going rate for a prospect
You’re extremely overvaluing Hamels. Dave Cameron explains much better than I do: fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/on-the-report-of-t…
Basically, if Cole Hamels were not signed to a $144 million contract, he would be worth more prospects. He is signed to a $144 million contract so he’s arguably not even worth a *single* one of Soler/Bryant.
That would be terrible for the Cubs.
that’s a horrible deal for the Cubs. they downgrade in every way besides pitching… and if pitching is that critical for them they can just up their offer to Scherzer and only cough up a 2nd rounder for the same effect.
What about this: Baez, Alcantara, Vogelbach for Hamels, with Cubs taking his entire contract.
I just feel that Russell, Bryant, and Soler are all untouchable at this point, but the above three are all still top prospects, each with at least a floor of being major-league contributors, and ceilings much higher than that. To me this seems to be the most even trade of any I’ve seen proposed yet.
I think that could work. It’s not the worst trade proposal I have seen in this thread.
i doubt the Cubs are dealing 2 of their top 5 for a player of the caliber they could easily have on the FA market for just a little more money and a little more years.
I see the Phillies only getting 1 of Russell, Almora or possibly Starlin Castro if it’s virtually a straight-up swap.
I think they go for BOTH options. A trade for Hamels AND the signing of Lester/Scherzer would be a tremendous upgrade to a rotation in need of help.
oh, it’d be a great upgrade, but if the cubs trade too much for Hamels then they lock themselves in to having to win it all in the next year or two. Given where the Cubs are now, with all the question marks on offense, next year’s likely not ‘the year’, so why blow the farm now? If they can land Lester and a lesser pitcher, they still have a large window to land a Zimmerman or a Price next year.
Yea, I see what you’re saying, but again, Cole gives you four years plus a decent option for a 5th. That doesn’t pressure you into a win-now situation like a deadline deal/rental situation does. For a guy of his caliber for the next four maybe 5 years, it has to be worth making the trade. I understand the value of stockpiling talent on the farm, of course, and I hated to see good players sent away to Houston for Oswalt & Pence, but it gets to a point where you can pull off a key trade for a top MLB arm without mortgaging the future, and the Cubs have the pieces to make that possible
it may be that i’m a Cubs fan and i remember all to bitterly just what a disaster the Garza trade turned out to be for us. We gave up way to much from a system that could ill-afford the hit. I just feel trading should always been plan B as opposed to free agents… who, while more expensive, don’t rob you of the fall-back options like a bad trade would.
I know the Phillies are going to try to maximize the return for Hamels, and i’m pretty sure eventually somebody will pay close to what they want. i just hope it’s not my team in this case.
The Phillies would have no reason to accept that offer.
Mets need to make some serious moves at SS and outfield this year for anyone to take them seriously. Addison for Syndergaard would be a good start. Better yet Castro for Wheeler.
I really don’t see where all of these ridiculous trade proposals for Hamels come from. Hamels has consistently been a ~4-4.5 WAR pitcher over the last several years, which is great, even “ace” level. But he’s getting paid an average of $22.5 mil/year for the rest of his contract, which is just about the going rate for 4.5 WAR, meaning his contract is perfectly commensurate with his performance in the current market, aka he has little surplus trade value. A guy like Javier Baez derives his trade value from the fact that he projects to perform well beyond what he’ll be paid for the next several years – the value is in the difference between what he’s paid and what he’s actually worth from a performance standpoint. His trade value is hedged a bit due to the risk that he doesn’t live up to expectations, but you include a few other solid prospects to make up for that. I don’t see why the Cubs would offer anything more when they can basically go out into the FA market and pick up a Lester or Scherzer, both arguably better pitchers, at similar AAV without having to give up any elite prospects. The only way I see the Cubs giving up more than someone like Baez is if the Phillies eat some of Hamels’s contract, but even that probably wouldn’t be too appealing to the Cubs since money isn’t really the issue.
Good points all around, but I don’t think you can just look at the AAV. The Red Sox seemed content to pay the 22.5-ish million per year that Lester will surely receive, no problem with that AAV, but they were hesitant about the 6 year commitment. They want the Cole Hamels contract and I think the Cubs are in the same boat. I see what your saying about Cole’s production/contract as compared to the open market, but the Cubs are going to sign one of the top arms anyway AND possibly trade for Hamels, so its not a case of comparing one against the other; both are likely going to happen in order to bring two top arms to that rotation.
Probably not wise to assume that just because the Cubs can afford to sign a Lester or Scherzer means that they WILL do it. Other teams have money and like pitching too. If I’m Amaro, I’m not coming down off a flattering offer before those guys are off the FA market. If that means the Cubs are no longer shopping for Hamels, so be it. It’s not as if his value is going down barring injury.
Hamels is worthy of two top prospects. Controlled for the next four years.
Phillies Receive: Addison Russell, Jorge Soler, Pierce Johnson, Edwin Jackson (Phillies take the whole contract for next two years at 26mill)
Cubs Receive: Hamels, getting rid of Edwin contract cuts salary that is given to one of the FA starting pitchers. Why sign one? Bc the Cubs 1st round pick (9th overall) is protected thus giving up their 2nd rounder. Great timing that can give them a formidable punch of Hamels, and one of Scherzer/Lester/Shields.
I calculated the Cubs salaries using all of Arb predictions at this website and subtracted and added the salaries. Cubs salary to start the season if the following deal happened and signing Lester to 6yr/144 would be 93.8 w/o resigning any FA or signing any other ones. Cubs starting payroll last year was 92.6.
Phillies comes to 133.7 w/ taking on Soler, Edwin and getting rid of Hamels while using the Arb prediction calculated at this website. W/o resigning or signing any FA. Then the Phillies can slowly begin to ship off other players. Phillies starting payroll last year was 177.7.
I hate Edwin, but would accept this deal. 2 legit top prospects plus another nice one for Hamels. Edwin stinks, but the Phils need to fill out the rotation anyway and it’s not my money. So if taking on Edwin gets me that return, I’d take him.
Nice idea, but Cubs would have to add to the deal if a team is taking EJax
personally i’d rather have the next 5 years of Soler than the next 4 of Hamel. If that’s the price for Hamels, i say save the prospects and the money and make a run at David Price next year.
I can see that for sure…Soler won’t be involved in the deal, and probably Bryant is the next untouchable, but you don’t think two of Baez, Russell, Alcantara, is a possibility?
i’d talk Almora before Alcantara, but i like Alcantara a lot.
I’d be willing to talk Baez and Almora as a package, but not a whole lot more than that. (that’s 2 mlb.com mid-season top 40).
The Cubs got Russell for 1.5 years of Shark. (I’ll call the other player a wash with Hammells). Hamels is a better pitcher than Shark (although Hamels is not an elite starter – very good though) and you get 3.5 more years of him, albeit at a higher age. so it would seem that the Cubs should be willing to give 2 of their real prospects (not the over-hyped ones that can’t hit) for Hamels. That said, the Cubs could sign the superior Lester and give up no prospects.
the A’s needed Shark then a lot more than the Cubs need Hamels right now. If the Phillies don’t want to deal, i’m fine with that, but as a Cubs fan i’d be livid if they gave two top prospects for a guy who’d just be ‘nice to have’.
I love the Cubs top prospects, but be careful what you wish for when you fall in love with prospects.
it’s not the prospects i’m so high on so much as the prospects AND the financial flexibility they bring. i spent enough years watching Hendry spend way to much money on big names over 30… i’d rather not see the Cubs jump the gun and commit to that model again too soon.
You’d be trading for Cole’s age 30-34 seasons, he’s still in his prime, and a top proven pitcher in the game…that’s worth two top guys that have never played a game in MLB.
then somebody else can pay it, honestly. Pitching’s not nearly as rare as it’s perceived to be where as hitting is hard to find these days. I’d rather save the prospects and the cash and throw the latter at David Price or Jordan Zimmerman next year. the Cubs will be just fine with Lester/Scherzer and a no. 3 to slot in behind Arietta.
Fair enough and don’t blame you. The Cubs have built this thing the right way so far, they have a very bright future.
Curious. Who are the “elite starters” in your mind if Hamels doesn’t fall into that list?
He’s probably referencing the three elite pitchers on the Tigers that carried them through the postseason
or that monster staff that carried the A’s to greatness this year.
shark was/will continue to be paid less than half of what Hamels is making. and he actually had an arguably better season than Hamels. and it was a mid-season trade to a team in the playoff hunt. that’s a big difference.
I want to live in a world where the Wilpons are in no way connected to or with,the Mets. Get rid of the Wilpons the Mets will contend. Also get rid of Alderson and Collins