Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

After missing the playoffs in 2013, the Giants added yet another chapter to the “Even Year” saga by capturing their third World Series victory in the past five seasons. They’ll have plenty to address in the offseason, however, with several key free agents coming off the books and a need in the rotation.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Buster Posey, C/1B: $146.5MM through 2021 (including buyout of 2022 option)
• Hunter Pence, RF: $74MM through 2018
• Matt Cain, RHP: $67.5MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
• Madison Bumgarner, LHP: $29.5MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
• Angel Pagan, CF: $19MM through 2016
• Tim Lincecum, RHP: $18MM through 2015
• Tim Hudson, RHP: $12MM through 2015
• Javier Lopez, LHP: $9MM through 2016
• Marco Scutaro, 2B: $6MM through 2015
• Santiago Casilla, RHP: $6MM through 2015 (including buyout of 2016 option)
• Jeremy Affeldt, LHP: $5MM through 2015
• Joaquin Arias, INF: $1.45MM through 2015
• Daniel Carbonell, OF: $400K through 2018 (salary increases upon promotion to Majors)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)

• Gregor Blanco, OF (4.164): $3.5MM projected salary
• Yusmeiro Petit, RHP (4.016): $1.6MM
• Brandon Belt, 1B (3.128): $3.4MM
• Travis Ishikawa, 1B (3.124): $800K
• Brandon Crawford, SS (3.094): $2.5MM
• Guillermo Quiroz, C (3.013): $500K
• Hector Sanchez, C (2.166): $1MM

Free Agents

• Pablo Sandoval, Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong, Mike Morse, Sergio Romo

The early portion of the Giants’ offseason focused largely on the team’s efforts to retain Pablo Sandoval, but the news came in on Monday that Sandoval will sign a five-year pact with the Red Sox, and he won’t be alone. Also going to Boston is one of the primary free agent alternatives to Sandoval — Hanley Ramirez. That leaves the Giants with limited options to address third base on the free agent market and leaves the team with holes in both its lineup and pitching staff.

The Giants have several spots on the diamond figured out; Buster Posey will share time with Andrew Susac behind the dish and also spend some time at first base along with Brandon Belt. The double-play tandem figures to be composed of standout defender Brandon Crawford and sophomore Joe Panik. They’ll form a defensively sound middle infield, though neither brings an overwhelming amount of offensive upside to the table. A healthy Angel Pagan should man center field in San Francisco, and Hunter Pence, of course, will be in right field.

The Giants will have to address third base and look for a new left fielder with Michael Morse a free agent as well. In Morse and Sandoval, San Francisco lost two of its more potent bats, so there should be a great deal of emphasis on replacing that offense. Rumored options in the wake of Sandoval’s departure include Chase Headley and Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas (who has worked out for the Giants at third base but is probably better suited to play left field). Headley would provide shutdown defense at the hot corner and is a familiar option given his extended tenure with the Padres. Tomas, however, carries more offensive upside, as he’s said to possess 70-grade power and could provide 25-homer pop even in the pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park. If the Giants are looking for free agent alternatives in the outfield, a reunion with Melky Cabrera could provide some punch to the lineup, and Colby Rasmus brings some pop to the table with the ability to play center field should Pagan struggle with his health again. Of course, Rasmus is coming off a down season, and the Giants may want more certainty as they look to return to the World Series.

The trade market offers a number of alternatives. The Giants probably don’t have the MLB-ready pitching prospects that the Braves are believed to be seeking for Justin Upton, but they could look to Michael Saunders and Matt Joyce as low-cost upgrades. If they care to set their sights a bit higher, Jay Bruce is said to be attainable, though Cincinnati’s asking price will be significant. The Red Sox, of course, have a bounty of outfielders available and could send anyone from a group of Yoenis Cespedes, Shane Victorino, Allen Craig and Daniel Nava to San Fran.

A trade for a third base replacement may be a bit easier to come by, with names like Luis Valbuena, Will Middlebrooks, David Freese, Pedro Alvarez and Casey McGehee all potentially available. I speculated at one point that Trevor Plouffe could be a trade candidate as well, and one would think that the rebuilding Twins would indeed be willing to listen as his price increases and Miguel Sano looms.

While left field and third base are now obvious holes to be filled, another area of need for the Giants is in the rotation. Madison Bumgarner’s October heroics aside, the Giants have a lack of stability within the rotation. Former aces Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are wild cards, to varying extents (Lincecum more so than Cain), as Cain is returning from surgery to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow, while Lincecum’s past dominance has evaporated (4.76 ERA from 2012-14). Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong are free agents, and Tim Hudson will turn 40 next July.

With that level of uncertainty and the loss of one potential cornerstone already in the books, perhaps it should come as no surprise that the Giants were recently connected to Jon Lester. The Giants likely have the financial means to pursue any of the “Big Three” starters, with Max Scherzer and James Shields posing legitimate options. However, the second tier of this year’s free agent class runs deep, and a pitcher-friendly ball park pairs well with a 2014 World Championship when it comes to luring free agents. The Giants could look to any of Brandon McCarthy, Ervin Santana, Francisco Liriano (the cousin of Santiago Casilla) or perhaps Japanese star Kenta Maeda (assuming he is posted). A reunion with Peavy can’t be ruled out after he pitched exceptionally well for them in the regular season following a July trade.

As is the case with the trade markets for both left fielders and third basemen, many names figure to be kicked around by the Giants’ brass. In Cincinnati, a trio of starters is said to be available — Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon — and the Giants are well equipped to absorb the salary of a bigger fish like Cole Hamels. If the two sides can look past the divisional implications, Ian Kennedy is a good fit as well. Other potentially available names such as Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Scott Kazmir may require San Francisco to part with Major League ready help, as their current clubs are clear contenders, making them a trickier fit.

The Giants already possess a strong bullpen, with veterans Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez all coming back into the fold. Jean Machi enjoyed a solid season in the bullpen, and George Kontos was successful in about a half-season’s worth of innings. And, for all of Hunter Strickland’s postseason struggles, his 100 mph heater figures to be back in the mix as well. The Giants seem likely to take a look at retaining the popular Sergio Romo but could pursue another outside option to solidify the bunch. I’d think another right-handed arm would be on the wish list, with Lopez and Affeldt slinging from the left side, and some potential free agent targets include Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek. The team reportedly plans to use Tim Lincecum in the rotation, but a somewhat more creative option raised by Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron in August was to give the ninth inning to Lincecum. As Cameron noted, Lincecum has had prolonged struggles with men on base throughout his career, and giving him the standard “ninth inning only” closer’s role would allow him to enter with a blank slate every outing, when his numbers have been significantly better. That’d also allow manager Bruce Bochy to use his top relievers in higher-leverage situations with the game on the line in other innings — a strategy that served him well in the playoffs this season.

Another somewhat outside-the-box suggestion for the team (though it’s certainly been suggested before) would be to install Susac as the full-time catcher with Posey becoming a full-time first baseman or third baseman, although that could potentially leave Belt without a position. He could, of course, be appealing to other clubs in trades that could help fill a different need, however. Susac does come with starting catcher upside, and a move from behind the plate could help Posey reach new career-highs in plate appearances (currently just 610) and games played (148). Of course, there would be certain defensive questions raised with a slide to third base, but filling an existing hole with current roster members could allow the team to spend bigger on an impact free agent such as Tomas or Lester.

The Giants have many routes they can take now that the Sandoval saga has come to an end. Though they’re the defending World Champions, they’re getting hit hard by free agency and unquestionably have holes to fill. Still, this is a team with a legitimate ace atop its rotation, some strong relief options in place and a perennial MVP candidate in Posey. The Giants had a $149MM payroll to open the 2014 season which only rose with the acquisition of Peavy, and they’re flush with cash following postseason revenues and a World Series victory. They were reportedly prepared to pay Sandoval in the range of $95MM over the next five seasons, and you can be certain that those dollars will be reallocated to address other roster needs.