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2015-16 International Prospects

Dodgers Sign Cuban Outfielder Yordan Alvarez

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JUNE 16: Baseball America’s Ben Badler has a free scouting report on Alvarez posted, though he notes that because of the 18-year-old’s lack of experience in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, his looks at Alvarez have been somewhat limited. Alvarez once had a lean build but has now filled out his 6’5″ frame and weighs in around 220 pounds. Badler notes that scouts who have seen him more praise his bat control and give him average to above-average power grades, but he’s a bit stiff and has limited flexibility at first base. The whole report is well worth a look and contains some video of Alvarez at the plate as well.

JUNE 15: The Dodgers have agreed to a $2MM bonus with Cuban outfielder/first baseman Yordan Alvarez, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. Because the Dodgers have already gone over well over their allotted spending pool, they’ll face a 100 percent tax on the 18-year-old Alvarez, meaning the signing will cost them $4MM in total.

Not much information is available publicly on the latest Los Angeles target on the international market. He appeared in Cuba’s Serie Nacional in 2013-14, beginning at just 16 years of age, and compiled a .279/.342/.327 batting line over 239 plate appearances.

Given his age, Alvarez is subject to international signing restrictions. That explains the timing of the move, as today marks the end of the 2015-16 international signing period, and the Dodgers are set to serve a two-year ban on $300K+ bonuses of such players in the 2016-17 class (which begins on July 2 following a two-week quiet period). The organization continues to plunk down big money on prospects out of Latin America and elsewhere, though their ability to do so for the next two years will now be significantly limited due to this past international signing period. They’ll still be able to bid on players that are exempt from bonus pools, of course, including players like Cuban third baseman Yulieski Gurriel, Cuban second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez and others that are made available via the posting systems from Korea and Japan.

Latest U.S. Rule Change On Cuba May Pave Way For Free Agents

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As the United States continues to unroll policy changes with regard to interactions between American and Cuban businesses and citizens, the latest move could have profound implications for the way that the island’s famed baseball players make their way to MLB. As Ben Strauss of the New York Times explains, the new rules — which start today — it will be permissible for major league teams (like any other employer) to hire Cuban citizens.

Under the existing scheme, Cuban players have been forced to endure a lengthy and often dangerous process not only to make it out of Cuba, but to become eligible to sign as free agents. While there are still many logistical and policy-related matters to be worked through before there is any kind of efficient exchange of talent between Cuba and the majors, yesterday’s announcement seems to remove a significant barrier from the process.

Indeed, the biggest immediate effect may be on Cubans who have already left the island and are currently waiting to reach free agency — which has previously required the establishment of residence in a third country in circumstances ripe for exploitation. In theory, those players — among them, Cuban legend Yulieski Gurriel, his brother Lourdes Gurriel, and veteran second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez — can legally sign right now, so long as they are otherwise able to gain legal entry and work authorization, as would any other international player.

It’s likely, of course, that clubs will await some confirmation before proceeding; if nothing else, pursuant to baseball’s own rules, those players will still need to be declared free agents. Dan Halem, MLB’s chief legal officer, tells Strauss that the league is still studying the rules, and there could be a need for administrative changes before the flow of talent opens. Regardless of precisely how long it takes for the impact of the rule change to be felt, it holds out the promise of eliminating some of the worst byproducts of the convoluted prior system.

Standing alone, though, the new rules do not eliminate the incentive for defection for those ballplayers that remain in Cuba — though, presumably, they’d be able to defect directly to the United States or at least do so much more quickly. Working out a process for players still in Cuba, of course, will require more negotiation and the participation by the Cuban government. But with goodwill exchanges between MLB and Cuba seemingly proceeding nicely, it isn’t hard to imagine the parties in interest finding a way forward.

International Notes: Gurriels, Lazarito, Manfred, Dodgers

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The Gurriel brothers’ defection from Cuba surprised many pundits, though as Baseball America’s Ben Badler writes, there had been hints over the last year that something was afoot with the duo, particularly Yulieski Gurriel.  The elder brother hasn’t always been known for playing hard, but Yulieski had been noticeably hustling more over the past year, perhaps in a deliberate effort to correct this perception in the eyes of MLB scouts.  Yulieski also passed on a lucrative offer to play in Japan for the rather curious reason of wanting to rehab a hamstring injury, which raised some eyebrows.  Badler notes that in the wake of the Gurriels’ departure, the Dominican government is cracking down on Cuban players in the country, with a couple of prospects already sent back to Cuba and others leaving the Dominican to establish residency in the Bahamas.  Cubans still remaining in the Dominican Republic are now playing on well-maintained but secretive baseball diamonds, just adding to the overall clandestine atmosphere.

Here’s more recent news from around the international market…

  • The shocking circumstances behind Charles Hairston and Agency39 dropping their representation of Lazaro “Lazarito” Armenteros is still the talk of the international scouting world, and Hairston shared more details with MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez.  The mysterious “buscon” (or “investor” as he’s known in Sanchez’s piece) allegedly threatened Hairston ten days ago,  and had also been working behind Agency39’s back to negotiate with teams and other agencies to arrange new representation for Armenteros.  Agency39 was still working on Lazarito’s behalf as late as noon yesterday.
  • Commissioner Rob Manfred reiterated his support for an international talent draft when speaking to reporters (including Jesse Sanchez) on Monday, indicating that changes to the international system will be a significant topic in upcoming collective bargaining negotiations with the players’ union.  These talks will be particularly interesting since the desire for altering international signing rules may vary greatly from team to team.  “If you ask the teams that have been able to spend internationally, they would be happy with how [the system] is,” Athletics GM David Forst said. “There are also some teams that feel you lose some of the scouting side of it if you have the [international draft].  You lose the ability to unearth players.  But with the information that is out there, I’m not sure that happens.”
  • Twenty-five teams attended a showcase yesterday for Cuban outfielder Yadiel Hernandez and infielders Yanio Perez and Alejandro Rivero, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets.  Hernandez, who defected last summer, is the most highly-regarded of the trio and is old enough (28) to not be subject to the international pool limits.
  • The Dodgers have spent over $200MM on nine Cuban players over the last four years, a major investment that Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register notes that thus far yielded relatively little return.  Yasiel Puig has delivered both all-world talent and controversy in his time with the team and Hector Olivera was flipped to the Braves, while Erisbel Arruebarrena and Alex Guerrero are now afterthoughts.  “I think like any part of the talent universe there’s going to be mixed results,” said senior baseball operations VP Josh Byrnes, who also noted that the Dodgers’ big investment is still less than it would’ve cost for a similar outlay on free agent talent.  The club obviously still expects much from highly-regarded prospects still in the system, including the recently-signed Yaisel Sierra.

MLB Shortens Signing Timeline For Cuban Players

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TODAY: The league has granted exemptions to a dozen total players, according to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (links to Twitter). All of those situations have been resolved on a “case-by-case basis,” he says, and the same will hold true of any applications received in the future.

YESTERDAY: The MLB commissioner’s office declared today that young Cuban ballplayers Jonatan Machado and Omar Estevez are free agents with eligibility to sign as part of this year’s July 2 class, as Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. In addition to speeding the signing of these two players, Badler explains, the decision could have wide-ranging ramifications for the international market.

Previously, the league had strictly enforced its general requirement that players seeking to sign as part of a given July 2 class register with the league by May 15 of the year in which they would become eligible to sign. While the collective bargaining agreement provides room for exceptions in cases of “compelling justification” for missing that deadline, the commissioner’s office has never before utilized that provision — even for players claiming as an excuse the fact that they were forced to defect from Cuba.

That policy now appears to have been changed. The memo explaining the decision said that both youngsters had missed the deadline for this signing period “due to no fault of their own,” triggering the “compelling justification” standard and making them eligible to sign beginning in mid-October of this year.

Badler breaks things down in detail, explaining that there are other top players who now can — at least in theory — move up their signing timetable on the same grounds. With more talent potentially shifting into the current year’s July 2 group, that opens new opportunities for those clubs that have already committed to busting their budgets and incurring future signing bonus limitations.

The Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, and Royals all face two-year bans on bonuses of $300K or more, with the Blue Jays set to serve a one-year limitation period. Those teams would have been precluded from chasing Cuban ballplayers who were forced to wait until July 2, 2016 to sign, but would be able to ink them (while incurring a 100% overage penalty) if they receive exemptions from the registration requirement.

As Badler further explains, the move could lead to a more rapid exodus of talent from Cuba, as players — and, more importantly, the handlers and other characters involved in the shadowy defection process — seek to take advantage. This news seemingly constitutes one significant step in the changing treatment of Cuban ballplayers. Obviously, it’s tied closely to the still-developing opening of relations between the United States and its island neighbor.

Latest On Eddy Julio Martinez

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Top Cuban prospect Eddy Julio Martinez is now a client of Rick Thurman and Rafael Nieves of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Martinez, regarded by some as the top free agent on this year’s international market, has flown under the radar of late after generating quite a bit of buzz late in the spring and early this summer. It’s been written on multiple occasions that the 20-year-old center fielder is expected to command a bonus in excess of $10MM. That, of course, means that a signing team would be penalized with a 100 percent luxury tax for every dollar spent over its league-allotted international bonus pool. His signing team would also be unable to sign an international free agent for more than $300K in either of the next two signing periods, although changes to the CBA following the 2016 season could impact those rules.

As MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reported last night, the Reds have joined the Martinez market and will host a private workout for him later this week. The Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Astros and Rangers have all been linked to Martinez at various times as well. As Sanchez noted in his free scouting report, Martinez has a compact and powerful stroke plus the ability to hit home runs to all fields. His speed gives him base-stealing upside, and he should be able to remain in center field thanks to good range in the gaps and an accurate throwing arm. Heyman spoke to several scouts today, with one praising Martinez’s considerable pop and multiple calling him a solid prospect. An eight-figure deal is still the expectation for Martinez, Heyman hears.

Quick Hits: Chemistry, Cuba, Rule 5, Breakouts

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Clubhouse chemistry still plays an important role in making a winner, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Multiple players — in rather thoughtful and interesting quotes — tell Nightengale that it is unwise to reject that factor as having causative effect simply because it can’t presently be measured. Indeed, while some adages have been questioned, the ever-changing capacity to measure and value various components of the game has in some cases validated “traditional” viewpoints (as in the case of catcher framing). And it’s not hard to imagine how a positive work environment could help boost play over a long season under often-stressful conditions. Of course, valuing that impact remains a highly inexact science, and it is difficult to separate out true “chemistry” from the generally positive aura of a club that happens to be winning games (due to whatever combination of talent and luck it may have enjoyed). Regardless of one’s feelings on the subject, the piece provides good fodder for thought.

For more reading on the topic, I highly recommend a 2013 piece by Sam Miller for ESPN, which goes into outstanding depth on the opportunities and limitations in this arena. Here are few more notes from around the league:

  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler looks in at the latest on the developing market for Cuban talent. There’s too much to summarize here, but Badler includes updates on several of the players who are preparing to sign with major league teams as well as the latest developments and intrigue on those still in Cuba.
  • We are in the midst of a historic season for Rule 5 prospects, writes BA’s J.J. Cooper. As he notes, with just days to go until rosters expand, it appears that a remarkable ten of fourteen picks from last winter will be kept by their new teams. Even better, several players — Odubel Herrera and Delino DeShields Jr. chief among them — have been real big league contributors.
  • This season, like every other, has featured apparent breakouts from numerous players, only some of which will prove sustainable. In an Insider piece, ESPN.com’s Keith Law lists the nine men who are most likely to build off their big 2015 campaigns. Two of the names on the list — Shelby Miller of the Braves and Nathan Eovaldi of the Yankees — were acquired in offseason trades in hopes that they could regain upward trajectories.

Cuban Outfielder Yusnier Diaz Declared Free Agent

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Cuban outfielder Yusnier Diaz has been granted free agency by Major League Baseball and is now free to sign with any team, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. The 18-year-old placed 17th among Cuban prospects in Baseball America’s recent ranking (subscription link).

Diaz is a speedy and athletic player who has shown solid offensive tools in recent showcases, Sanchez explained recently. He is said to have at least some promise in the power department, and profiles as a possible option in center field.

As BA’s Ben Badler wrote today, Diaz was an obvious choice to take home rookie-of-the-year honors in Cuba’s Serie Nacional before he decided to leave his home island, as he put up a .348/.447/.440 slash line. Badler credits him with plus speed and arm strength. As that stat line shows, and as Badler explains further in the above-linked ranking article, there’s some length in Diaz’s swing and will need to build out his frame to increase his meager power output.

There haven’t been any reports specifically linking teams to Diaz, who is subject to international signing limitations. But as Badler notes, he’ll likely be too expensive for the clubs that are currently banned from issuing bonuses of greater than $300K to international players. As Badler adds, Diaz and other top Cuban players who’ll be eligible to sign in the current July 2 period could ultimately end up landing with those organizations that have already blown past their signing pools (meaning that they are already set to serve limitations periods after this signing season).

International Notes: July 2 Pools, 2016-17 Market, Cuba

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In case you missed the recent action, be sure to catch up on the major July 2 signings. In the midst of teams agreeing to deals with young talent, they were also swapping quite a bit of bonus spending pools amongst themselves. Matt Eddy of Baseball America provides an exceedingly useful chart showing the aggregate results (as of this morning) of all those exchanges.

  • Now that the dust has largely settled, Baseball America’s Ben Badler breaks down at the clubs that have exceeded their total allotment. By Badler’s reckoning, fully one-third of the league will be restricted from spending more than $300K in next year’s July 2 market, with the Dodgers, Giants, Cubs, Royals, and Blue Jays joining the five teams that are set to serve the second year of their bans. (Toronto will only face one season of limitations, as their spending stands.) Badler also explains how all the bonus pool deals were put to use by the teams making them.
  • In the same piece, Badler takes a stab at predicting which clubs are planning to blow their budgets next year. He says that the Braves “seem determined” to make a big splash, while the industry chatter is that they could be joined by the Nationals, Rangers, Twins, and Padres.
  • MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez looks at the challenges to Cuban baseball posed by changing diplomatic tides. The stream of ballplayers heading for major league organizations has obviously hurt Cuba’s domestic league and national team, as Sanchez explains.
  • If you’re still confused by the way the international market works, check out this solid primer from Jonah Keri of Grantland. He uses a Q&A format to help simplify the often baffling series of rules, strategies, and factors weighing on this segment of the baseball transactional world.

Phillies Sign Jhailyn Ortiz

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JULY 9: The Phillies have officially announced the signing. They also announced the singings of Venezuelan catcher Rafael Marchan and Dominican infielder Kuedy Bocio and lefty Manuel Silva. As Baseball America’s Ben Badler notes (on Twitter), Ortiz’s bonus is actually $4MM, which will help the Phillies to stay within their international bonus pool, which now stands at $5.28MM.

JULY 2: The Phillies have an agreement with Dominican first base prospect Jhailyn Ortiz, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports on Twitter. Agreement is still being “finalized,” per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, who tweets that the bonus is for an estimated $4.2MM.

Ortiz ranked sixth on Sanchez’s list of top international prospects, with Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel ranking him 14th and Baseball America’s Ben Badler ranking him 18th. Already listed at 6’2″ and 260 pounds, raw power is Ortiz’s best tool. He’s currently a left fielder, but most expect him to move to first base. Ortiz as the type of power “that does not come around very often,” per Sanchez. McDaniel gives Ortiz 70-grade raw power and notes that he’s surprisingly fleet of foot at the time being, though he figures to eventually slow down some. Badler notes (subscription required and recommended) that Ortiz showed a lot of swing-and-miss at events in February and March, leading to some concerns among scouts. There’s a lot of risk, per Badler, but there’s 25-plus homer upside if Ortiz can make similar adjustments to the ones Nomar Mazara made after signing with the Rangers.

Red Sox Acquire Ramses Rosario From Nationals

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The Nationals announced today that they’ve traded minor league right-hander Ramses Rosario to the Red Sox in exchange for the No. 66 international bonus slot. That slot is valued at $327,700, per Baseball America.

Rosario, 19, was signed by the Nats in the 2012-13 international signing period and has worked exclusively in the Dominican Summer League from 2013-15. He’s posted a combined 4.11 ERA in 72 1/3 innings across 34 games (31 relief appearances) in that time, averaging 6.2 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9. Rosario did not rank among Washington’s top prospects per Baseball America, MLB.com or Fangraphs.

The Nationals’ $1,985,400 international bonus pool (also per BA) was the second-smallest in the Majors this year. The additional $328K will allow boost that figure to $2.31MM, which is more than enough to give them some breathing room to reach additional agreements beyond Dominican outfielder Juan Soto, who reportedly has a $1.5MM bonus agreed upon with the team.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, are restricted from signing an international amateur for more than $300K after absolutely shattering last year’s budget to sign Cuban phenom Yoan Moncada, so it makes sense to see them trading their slots.

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