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2015-16 International Signings

Dodgers Sign Cuban Outfielder Yordan Alvarez

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JUNE 16: Baseball America’s Ben Badler has a free scouting report on Alvarez posted, though he notes that because of the 18-year-old’s lack of experience in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, his looks at Alvarez have been somewhat limited. Alvarez once had a lean build but has now filled out his 6’5″ frame and weighs in around 220 pounds. Badler notes that scouts who have seen him more praise his bat control and give him average to above-average power grades, but he’s a bit stiff and has limited flexibility at first base. The whole report is well worth a look and contains some video of Alvarez at the plate as well.

JUNE 15: The Dodgers have agreed to a $2MM bonus with Cuban outfielder/first baseman Yordan Alvarez, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. Because the Dodgers have already gone over well over their allotted spending pool, they’ll face a 100 percent tax on the 18-year-old Alvarez, meaning the signing will cost them $4MM in total.

Not much information is available publicly on the latest Los Angeles target on the international market. He appeared in Cuba’s Serie Nacional in 2013-14, beginning at just 16 years of age, and compiled a .279/.342/.327 batting line over 239 plate appearances.

Given his age, Alvarez is subject to international signing restrictions. That explains the timing of the move, as today marks the end of the 2015-16 international signing period, and the Dodgers are set to serve a two-year ban on $300K+ bonuses of such players in the 2016-17 class (which begins on July 2 following a two-week quiet period). The organization continues to plunk down big money on prospects out of Latin America and elsewhere, though their ability to do so for the next two years will now be significantly limited due to this past international signing period. They’ll still be able to bid on players that are exempt from bonus pools, of course, including players like Cuban third baseman Yulieski Gurriel, Cuban second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez and others that are made available via the posting systems from Korea and Japan.

Dodgers Notes: Roberts, Estevez, Int’l Spending

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It’s been a busy days for Dodgers news, with no item bigger than the report that the club is on the verge of hiring Dave Roberts as its next manager.  Here’s the latest from Los Angeles…

  • Roberts was the right choice over director of player development Gabe Kapler, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal opines.  Kapler might’ve had to combat “that players would perceive him as a puppet of the front office due to his close relationship with Andrew Friedman,” while Roberts comes from more of a traditional coaching background and has more dugout experience.  Kapler may end up being a very good manager in the future, Rosenthal writes, but Roberts was the better option if the Dodgers were going to pick a first-time skipper.
  • When the Dodgers reached the final stage of their manager search, several Dodger veterans informed upper management that Roberts was their choice, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link).
  • Cuban second baseman Omar Estevez agreed to a $6MM bonus with the Dodgers earlier today, and Baseball America’s Ben Badler passes on a scouting report on the relatively unknown 17-year-old.  Estevez is 5’11, 185 pounds and a right-handed hitter who seems to be lacking in both plus tools and athleticism, according to both Badler and a scout.  What Estevez does have, however, is maturity beyond his years at the plate.  “Estevez was kind of under the radar tools-wise, but he can hit,” said the scout.  “It’s playable defense and he’s not the most agile guy to be in the middle of the diamond, but he has a polished bat. It’s not an athletic body, it’s not what you get excited about, but the way he recognizes pitches, his approach—you don’t see a lot of kids his age doing that.”
  • Estevez and Yusniel Diaz are just the latest players to sign with Los Angeles during this international signing period, as the Dodgers have far exceeded their bonus pool to stock up on young talent.  Badler (via Twitter) says that this spending spree is one reason why several other teams have shied away from similarly exceeding their bonus pools during the 2015-16 signing period, as they’re simply worried about getting into bidding wars with the well-heeled Dodgers.  Exceeding your bonus pool by more than 15% results in a penalty of not being able to sign international players for more than $300K during the next two signing periods, so it makes sense that teams won’t splurge unless they’re sure they can land the particular player or players they want.  The Giants, Cubs and Royals are the only other teams to incur the two-year penalty during this signing period, while the Blue Jays only face a one-year ban for 2016-17 as they stayed under the 15% threshold.

NL Central Notes: Martinez, Byrd, Heyward, Lucroy

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The Reds did indeed scout top Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez, tweets John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, but they’re not likely to sign the 20-year-old, he adds. The Reds aren’t interested in incurring maximum penalties for exceeding their international bonus pool, which they’d almost certainly need to do in order to sign Martinez. The team that signs Martinez will likely have to pay a 100 percent luxury tax for every dollar spent over their allotted pool, and they’ll also be restricted from signing future international prospects for more than $300K in each of the next two signing periods. That, of course, hasn’t deterred some clubs from spending big, but it perhaps makes it more likely that we’ll see Martinez land with a team that has already exceeded its bonus pool by a substantial margin. Interestingly, though, Fay hears that the price tag may have dropped below the previous $10MM+ expectations (Twitter link).

Here’s more from the NL Central…

  • Prior to being traded to the Giants, Marlon Byrd had somewhat of a “spat” with Reds bench coach Jay Bell, writes Fay in a separate column. Per Fay, Byrd became upset after Bell asked him to pinch-hit in the bottom of the eighth inning the day before he was traded, but he then sent Brayan Pena into the on-deck circle instead. Byrd ultimately wound up pinch-hitting, but only after a discussion with manager Bryan Price. “I didn’t get in a spat with Jay Bell,” said Byrd. “I had a conversation with the manager about Jay Bell. We had conversations all year about him. If you want to know more about that, you’d have to talk to him.” Byrd was traded to the Giants the next day, though he said he left on good terms with the his teammates and had generally positive things to say about the Reds in the conversation with Fay and other reporters.
  • Bernie Miklasz of 101 ESPN breaks down Jason Heyward’s free agent stock, adding that he expects the Cardinals to make a push to retain their right fielder. Though the outfield looks crowded in the short-term, Matt Holliday’s contract is up after 2016, as is Jon Jay’s. As such, the team could boast a future outfield of Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk and Heyward. While traditional numbers — homers, RBIs, batting average — don’t tell the full tale of Heyward’s value, Miklasz notes that more analytically inclined teams will be willing to make a big play for the 26-year-old. The Cardinals, Miklasz writes, prefer a higher annual value on a shorter-term deal than the risk of a nine- or 10-year pact, and they may even be open to including an opt-out clause, though that final point appears to be speculative in nature.
  • Though they’re division rivals, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny had no issues giving Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy some advice on how to handle the concussion symptoms with which he is currently dealing, writes the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak. Matheny, whose playing career ended due to a long history of concussions, recommended a specialist for Lucroy to see and urged him to take his time, noting points in his career where he believes he may have suffered a concussion then returned to the field the very next day, only to take another foul ball to the mask.  “[Matheny] said it was not worth a repeat hit when you’re not healed up, because that’s when things get really, really bad in terms of not being able to drive, not being able to look at lights, throwing up and nausea and stuff like that,” said Lucroy. “He really stressed, ’Take your time.'” Dr. Micky Collins has told Lucroy that he can make a full recovery from what has been diagnosed as a vestibular concussion — or one that impacts his coordination and movement.

International Notes: Eddy Julio Martinez, Yadier Alvarez

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Here’s the latest on some high-profile international talent from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez…

  • The Reds have a workout scheduled with Cuban outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez tomorrow in the Dominican Republic, Sanchez tweets.  The Giants are also “still in [the] mix” to sign the 20-year-old.  There hasn’t been much news on Martinez since early July, though he’d worked out for at least six teams and drawn interest from several more.  The highly-touted Martinez is expected to command at least a $10MM signing bonus, so if Cincinnati were to sign him, the Reds would far exceed their current international bonus pool and be limited to $300K-or-less signings in each of the next two international signing periods.  San Francisco, meanwhile, has already exceeded its 2015-16 pool limit so the Giants could decide to load up on international talent now since they face restrictions from 2016-18.
  • Yadier Alvarez’s $16MM bonus from the Dodgers is thus far the biggest bonus of the 2015-16 international class.  Sanchez checks in with the 19-year-old Cuban righty to see how he’s adjusting to life at the Dodgers’ Dominican academy, as well as the challenges Alvarez faced in finding a trainer after leaving Cuba.
  • Also from that piece, Sanchez notes that Enrique Estrada, another Cuban teenage pitcher, has left the island and recently established residence in Haiti.  Estrada “has a history of success in Cuba” but it isn’t know when he’ll be cleared to sign with an MLB team.  He’s still weeks away from showcases and Sanchez notes that Estrada is still “an unknown in some Major League circles.”

Phillies Sign Jhailyn Ortiz

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JULY 9: The Phillies have officially announced the signing. They also announced the singings of Venezuelan catcher Rafael Marchan and Dominican infielder Kuedy Bocio and lefty Manuel Silva. As Baseball America’s Ben Badler notes (on Twitter), Ortiz’s bonus is actually $4MM, which will help the Phillies to stay within their international bonus pool, which now stands at $5.28MM.

JULY 2: The Phillies have an agreement with Dominican first base prospect Jhailyn Ortiz, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reports on Twitter. Agreement is still being “finalized,” per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, who tweets that the bonus is for an estimated $4.2MM.

Ortiz ranked sixth on Sanchez’s list of top international prospects, with Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel ranking him 14th and Baseball America’s Ben Badler ranking him 18th. Already listed at 6’2″ and 260 pounds, raw power is Ortiz’s best tool. He’s currently a left fielder, but most expect him to move to first base. Ortiz as the type of power “that does not come around very often,” per Sanchez. McDaniel gives Ortiz 70-grade raw power and notes that he’s surprisingly fleet of foot at the time being, though he figures to eventually slow down some. Badler notes (subscription required and recommended) that Ortiz showed a lot of swing-and-miss at events in February and March, leading to some concerns among scouts. There’s a lot of risk, per Badler, but there’s 25-plus homer upside if Ortiz can make similar adjustments to the ones Nomar Mazara made after signing with the Rangers.

NL Notes: Strasburg, Mozeliak, Boras, Fernandez

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Stephen Strasburg left the mound during the fourth inning of today’s Giants/Nationals game with an injury in his left side.  The Nats ace wanted to keep pitching but “given his season, so far, I don’t want to take a chance there,” manager Matt Williams told reporters, including MLB.com’s Bill Ladson.  Strasburg has already had one extended DL stint to recover from a strained left trapezius and he’s been dealing with neck and back soreness all year, which has undoubtedly contributed to his 5.16 ERA over 61 innings (though an ungainly .365 BABIP also hasn’t helped).  Here’s the latest from around the senior circuit…

  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak tells Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he’s targeting starting pitching depth and a left-handed bench bat.  While the Cards’ rotation has been one of the best in the game this season, it’s also a pretty young staff with some pitchers who have had checkered injury histories, so Mozeliak said he has to “be aware of the potential hazards” and that “my job is to make sure if it doesn’t last, then how do you answer it?”
  • Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch looks the July 2 prospects already signed by the Cardinals (righty Alvaro Seijas and shortstop Raffy Ozuna, both 16 years old) and how the team has evolved its forays into the international market.
  • Scott Boras tells Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald that he sees no reason why the Marlins couldn’t afford to keep Jose Fernandez, even with Giancarlo Stanton already locked up on a historically large deal.  “With TV rights and the general fund contribution and everything — every club, before they sell a ticket, they’re making $120 million,” Boras said.  “There’s a lot of revenue in this game to pay a lot of players and keep players at home.”  The Marlins believes that Fernandez and Marcell Ozuna both declined to pursue extensions last winter under Boras’ advice, but the agent said that his players make those decisions.
  • Cubs president Theo Epstein cautioned that his team may not make any huge moves at the trade deadline, telling reporters (including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune) that “if you look at the history of teams that go on and play in the World Series, very rarely is it (because of a) deadline deal.  We know what we’d like to do, but we’re realistic about what we might be able to do.”  Epstein also noted that some teams who are solely in the wild card hunt may not favor making a big push just to get into a one-game playoff; while he was “just speaking generally,” Epstein’s comments could relate to the Cubs themselves, who are 8.5 games back of the Cardinals in the NL Central.

Blue Jays To Sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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1:04pm: Guerrero will receive a $3.9MM bonus, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com tweets.

10:18am: The Blue Jays have reached agreement with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ben Badler of Baseball America reports on Twitter. Guerrero, son of the famed big leaguer of the same name, was the first overall international prospect on BA’s pre-July 2 board. He is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council and Rick Thurman, Rafael Nieves and Nelson Montes.

Toronto had been widely expected to land the highly-touted Guerrero, who bears a striking resemblance to his father. While he doesn’t quite reach Vlad Sr.’s “all-around tools,” in Badler’s estimation, that’s hardly a knock. The younger Guerrero is said to have a very promising bat with contact ability to go with good power potential.

On the other hand, Guerrero is not a strong runner and does not appear to possess his father’s cannon of an arm. Those current limitations, including at least some question of whether he’ll ultimately be a serviceable corner outfielder, led both Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez to rate Guerrero fourth among eligible July 2 prospects.

The Blue Jays entered the day with $2,324,100 to spend without incurring any penalties, per Baseball America, and it appears likely that the club will go well beyond that to get Guerrero. While his bonus has yet to be reported, McDaniel predicted that Guerrero would sign for $3.45MM.

NL International Signings: Rockies, Mets, Braves, Nats, Reds

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Here are the day’s notable international signings from the National League. Rankings courtesy of Ben Badler of Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez.

  • The Rockies have a $2MM deal in place with outfielder Daniel Montano after he signed today, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Montano rated 12th on the MLB.com board, based upon his good instincts in center, smooth left-handed stroke, and decent power potential. There are some questions, including inconsistent performances at times, which led BA to slot him 16th and Fangraphs to rank him just outside the top twenty.

Earlier Updates

  • The Mets have landed two top international shortstops, according to Badler. Venezuelan product Andres Gimenez, the second overall prospect on Badler’s list, is headed to New York. The bonus will be for $1.2MM, per Sanchez (via Twitter), for a player that Badler called the second-best available prospect based upon his excellent batting skills from the left side of the plate, decent power potential, and strong overall defensive profile. And Dominican shortstop Gregory Guerrero will also join the club after agreeing to a $1.5MM bonus, per Badler. Guerrero, cousin of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and nephew of Vlad Sr., rated 9th among July 2 prospects in McDaniel’s estimation. Per McDaniel, the Mets signee has a more advanced hit than power tool, but could increase his pop over time. He is ultimately expected to move off of short to the hot corner. Having entered the day with $2,531,300 in spending capacity, these two deals put New York at just over 6.6% above their pool. That would line the team up to face a one-year ban on signings of over $500K, making a deal for another bonus slot appear likely.
  • The Braves have a deal in place with shortstop Derian Cruz for $2MM, Badler reports. McDaniel was high on Cruz, rating him the 8th-best player available, citing his outstanding speed, good hitting tools, and potential ability to stay at the shortstop position or otherwise play up the middle defensively. Atlanta also agreed to a $1.4MM bonus with outfielder Christian Pache, per Sanchez (via Twitter), the tenth-rated player on MLB.com’s top-thirty list. While these signings will put pressure on the team’s total spending allotment of $2,458,400, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets that the club will attempt to trade for about $1MM in extra capacity to steer clear of future signing restrictions.
  • Dominican outfielder Juan Soto will join the Nationals after agreeing to a $1.5MM deal, Sanchez tweets. That’s the team’s largest-ever bonus for a young international signing, James Wagner of the Washington Post notes on Twitter. Soto’s appeal lies more in his feel and approach at the plate than in pure bat speed, Baseball America writes in rating him 13th in the class. Though he does not offer much on defense and looks to be a corner outfielder in the future, Soto is said to have the potential to be an above-average offensive producer both in terms of pure hitting and power.
  • The Reds have agreed to a $1MM bonus with outfielder Christian Olivo, according to Sanchez (via Twitter). MLB.com was highest on Olivo, rating him 23rd on the international market and noting that he has a fairly high power ceiling that he has yet to fully tap into. The left-handed hitter has drawn mixed reviews in the baserunning and defensive departments.

AL International Signings: Royals, Astros, Mariners, White Sox

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Here are the day’s notable international signings from the American League. Rankings courtesy of Ben Badler of Baseball America, Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs, and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez.

  • The Royals have agreed to terms with Dominican outfielder Seuly Matias, Badler reports. He’ll get a $2.25MM bonus, per a Sanchez tweet. Matias ranked as high as seventh on international prospect lists, with Baseball America giving him that slot and citing his big upside. Matias is said to possess a legitimate gun from the outfield, and could have the athleticism to stick in center field. There are some questions about how advanced his bat is, but Matias reportedly has good bat speed and real promise if he can develop. Kansas City also added infielder Jeison Guzman for a $1.5MM price tag, Sanchez reports on Twitter. Badler was also the most optimistic evaluator on Guzman, writing that he still has plenty of growing to do but has good overall athleticism and a good feel for the shortstop position despite sub-par speed. With just $2,074,700 to play with this year, Kansas City could be on its way to a signing ban unless it can trade for additional bonus slots.
  • Outfielder Gilberto Celestino, a native of the Dominican Republic, has agreed to a $2.5MM bonus with the Astros, per Sanchez (via Twitter). MLB.com had him in the seventh position coming into today, explaining that he could be a long-term center fielder. Though some have questioned whether he has good enough raw tools to be an impactful player down the line, MLB.com says that Celestino has a good track record of production and solid makeup.
  • The Mariners have a $1.7MM deal in place with Dominican infielder Carlos Vargas, Sanchez reports on Twitter. Seattle lands a player that McDaniel placed tenth on his international prospect board. Vargas is both projectable and comes with a good track record, though he’s likely to move from short to third in the long run.
  • Outfielder Franklin Reyes is headed to the White Sox for $1.5MM, Sanchez tweets. Reyes rated near the back of the top thirty on the above-linked rankings. He’s already 6’4 and is adding weight, contributing to his big power potential and strong arm. He’ll have to improve his overall hitting ability and show enough mobility in the corner outfield to pan out, according to Badler. Chicago also added Fernando Tatis Jr., son of the former big leaguer, for a $700K bonus.

Giants To Sign Lucius Fox

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10:10am: When the deal is official, it will be for $6MM, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter.

8:34am: The Giants have agreed to sign shortstop Lucius Fox to an approximately $6.5MM bonus, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Fox, who’ll officially sign out of the Bahamas, entered the July 2 period as a consensus top-five prospect.

Fox had been said to be a Dodgers target, but news emerged yesterday that he was likely heading to their NL West rivals. He was a consensus top-five available player, with Sanchez and Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel placing him third and Ben Badler of Baseball America slotting Fox in the fourth spot.

This signings demonstrates some of the interesting interplay between the draft and international market. Fox is a native of the Bahamas, but had been playing high school ball in Florida. But he was successfully able to sign as an international free agent after returning to the Bahamas and winning a petition with Major League Baseball. That gave the MVP Sports Group client a chance to cash in on a much bigger bonus than he likely would have achieved through the draft.

Fox is said to be an excellent athlete, and he offers a high-contact bat — though he lacks power. He could be a quality up-the-middle defender, per Badler (subscription link), who says there’s a possibility that Fox will end up in center. McDaniel notes that Fox could also play second, but may also have a chance at sticking at his natural shortstop and will likely begin his professional career there.

San Francisco had just $2,130,900 in available pool capacity coming into the day, per Baseball America, meaning that it will owe a significant penalty fee on top of the dollars owed to Fox. And the Giants will be among those teams that is heavily restricted from major spending (bonuses of $300K or more) over the next two signing periods.

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