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Archives for February 2015

Pitching Notes: Gee, K-Rod, Soriano, Marlins, Uehara, Richards

By Steve Adams | February 16, 2015 at 7:15pm CDT

Right-hander Dillon Gee is likely the odd man out and headed to the Mets’ bullpen this season, and ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin was among the reporters to speak with him today regarding the move (video link). Gee says he is ready to contribute in whatever role he is asked, even though he obviously prefers to stay in the rotation. Though he did not ever speak with anyone in the front office, he relayed that his agent did, and was seemingly left with the impression that a trade was never quite as likely as was believed in some quarters.

Let’s have a look at a few segments of the pitching market where action still seems open:

  • It would still be unwise to bet against two other well-known closers — Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano — landing substantial contracts, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Notably, both free agents are represented by Scott Boras, who Rosenthal says not to bet against. As Rosenthal rightly points out, it will be interesting to see whether that pair of big-named arms manages to top the guarantees given to names like Pat Neshek ($12.5MM) and Zach Duke ($15MM).
  • As previously reported, Rodriguez has drawn interest from the Marlins, who have also had discussions about fellow free agent righty Joba Chamberlain, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). And those aren’t the only arms still under consideration in Miami, per Heyman. The club is seemingly casting a wide net — waiting for a good value, perhaps — in adding a final piece before camp.
  • Red Sox closer Koji Uehara said today that his mid-season swoon was due in part to injury issues, as Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald reports. The trouble was related to Uehara’s lower back, GM Ben Cherington said. Obviously, the club believes that he will be able to return without issue, given the contract it gave the veteran relief ace.
  • Breakout Angels starter Garrett Richards threw his first pen session since undergoing knee surgery last year, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. Reports were solid on the 26-year-old righty, whose return — and ability to match his outstanding results from last year — will go a long way toward defining the club. Anything close to his 2014 showing would seemingly make Richards a prime extension target.
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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels Miami Marlins New York Mets Dillon Gee Francisco Rodriguez Garrett Richards Joba Chamberlain Koji Uehara Rafael Soriano

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Dodgers Seek To Acquire Additional Reliever

By Jeff Todd | February 16, 2015 at 4:57pm CDT

The Dodgers are still working to pick up an arm for the bullpen, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. It is not clear from the report what sort of pitcher, or means of acquisition, Los Angeles is contemplating.

As things stand, the Dodgers already figure to open with a substantially re-worked pen. Among relievers with over twenty appearances for the team last year, only Kenley Jansen, J.P. Howell, and Brandon League are set to return. (Pedro Baez and Paco Rodriguez fell just shy of that arbitrary line.)

The team looks reasonably well-stocked on the right side, especially after adding David Aardsma and Sergio Santos on minor league pacts. Los Angeles had already dealt for Joel Peralta, Chris Hatcher, and Juan Nicasio earlier in the offseason. The same could probably be said with regard to lefties, as Howell is supplemented by a range of options including Rodriguez, David Huff, Adam Liberatore, and Ryan Buchter.

Of course, though there seems to be a fair amount of depth, there is almost always room for improvement in the bullpen. And it is worth noting that projections are not exactly in love with the present group. There are relatively few quality free agent arms remaining, though there are several with obvious appeal and the trade route is always possible.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand

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MLBTR Seeking Comment Moderators

By Steve Adams | February 16, 2015 at 2:30pm CDT

MLBTR is looking for additional moderators to read through comments and make sure that they’re not in violation of our commenting policy.

It’s not a paid position, but it will keep you connected to the latest trade and free agent rumors. If you’re a frequent MLBTR commenter who can help us keep the comment section clean, send a short e-mail to mlbtrmods@gmail.com with the following: your username, the email (or other) account you use to comment on MLBTR, your availability, and a short explanation as to why you’d be a good fit. If you’re responsible, respectful and interested in contributing at MLBTR, we want to hear from you.

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Commenting Policy

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Jason Giambi Retires

By Steve Adams | February 16, 2015 at 1:49pm CDT

Former American League MVP Jason Giambi has decided to formally retire from playing baseball, he told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Giambi offered a lengthy statement thanking his family, agents, equipment providers, coaches, teammates and media for their role in his career. While the statement is too long for the purposes of this post, fans of Giambi can read it in its entirety in the linked article above.

Jason Giambi

The Giambino was sure to also thank fans that supported him throughout the ups and downs of his career (he reportedly admitted to a grand jury in 2003 that he did use performance enhancing drugs): “I want to thank the fans for being a part of this incredible journey. I especially want to thank the fans that gave me a second chance to let me show you the human being you see today.”

Giambi’s legacy will be somewhat tainted by that admission, but the numbers he put up over parts of 20 Major League seasons are impressive no matter how you slice them. In 8,908 career plate appearances, Giambi batted .277/.399/.516 with 440 home runs and 1,441 RBIs. Prior to today’s announcement, Giambi was also the active Major League leader in career walks, with 1,366, and he was worth about 50 wins above replacement per both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. He appeared on five All-Star teams, won two Silver Sluggers and had a pair of Top 5 MVP finishes — including a second-place finish in 2001 — in addition to his 2000 MVP honors.

Giambi was able to play through his age-43 season due in large part to not only accepting, but rather embracing a reduced role with the Rockies and Indians. The slugger was used primarily as a pinch-hitter in Denver and in Cleveland, but he relished the opportunity to mentor younger players and share his wisdom with the game’s next generation. That attitude and the manner in which he was accepted by his younger teammates has led many to believe that Giambi may one day be a big league manager. In fact, he was at one point in consideration to manage the Rockies prior to signing with Cleveland in the 2012-13 offseason, and Terry Francona has referred to Giambi as a “manager-in-waiting.”

We at MLBTR wish Giambi and his family happiness and the best of luck in his post-playing days.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Newsstand Transactions Jason Giambi Retirement

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Updates On The Top Cuban Free Agents

By Steve Adams | February 16, 2015 at 1:12pm CDT

Yoan Moncada, Hector Olivera and Yadier Alvarez represent the top three names on the Cuban market right now, with Andy Ibanez ranking as perhaps the fourth-most intriguing option from the island. Both Moncada and Ibanez are eligible to sign at any time, while Olivera is still awaiting MLB’s clearance. Alvarez is the furthest from signing, as he’s yet to establish residency in another country, which must be completed before he can begin the process of getting cleared.

There’s been a quite a bit written on each of these four of late, so we’ll look at each on a case-by-case basis within this post. All information is courtesy of this excellent and comprehensive piece from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez unless otherwise noted.

Yoan Moncada

Moncada has yet to receive a formal offer, Sanchez writes, but he’s worked out privately for the Cubs, D-backs, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Rays, Tigers and Brewers, and there could be other private workouts to come.  Some scouts are a bit skeptical of Moncada’s ability to hit from the right side of the plate, but the belief is that he won’t require a lengthy stint in the minors before being ready for the big leagues.

Sanchez notes that any team that signs Moncada would have until July 15 to pay the overage tax on what will be a historic bonus, and that bonus can be paid out in installments over the next three years. So, while shelling out the tax due to the league in one lump sum may be onerous for smaller-market clubs like the Padres, the timeline on that payment is at least pushed back a ways.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently spoke to multiple executives regarding Moncada’s potential bonus, and while one estimated that the bonus alone could reach $50MM, others have expressed some skepticism at the numbers that have been thrown around. Rosenthal spoke to execs that are clearly on both ends of the Moncada spectrum, as one estimated a $30MM maximum bonus, with something in the range of $20MM being more likely. Of course, that would still shatter the current record, held by Yoan Lopez ($8.25MM).

Digging further into the Moncada market, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke with Moncada’s agent, David Hastings, who iterated once again that he hopes to have Moncada in camp for Spring Training. Said Hastings of that goal: “Certainly that’s not all within our power, as we have to wait for teams to make a commitment, and we have to choose the team we think best suits my player. But hopefully we’re down to the final stages of the process and we can begin the contract phase.” Hastings added that he wants to give as many as teams as possible the opportunity to bid on his client, so the volume of private workouts Moncada has attended isn’t exactly surprising. Lin characterizes the Padres as a potentially “unlikely, if not improbable destination” for Moncada. The Dodgers and Yankees remain the favorites, per Sanchez.

Hector Olivera

The 29-year-old Olivera, who turns 30 in April, is said to be seeking a five- or six-year pact along the lines of the contracts signed by Yasmany Tomas (six years, $68.5MM with a year-four opt-out) and Rusney Castillo (seven years, $72.5MM), Sanchez writes. (Remember that Oliver’s age and professional experience make him exempt from international spending limitations.) A recent report by Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs depicts that as highly unlikely; McDaniel noted that concerns over Olivera’s age and a blood clot disorder (thrombosis) may limit his contract to three years, or potentially four, if multiple clubs become aggressive. He did concede that something around $10MM annually could be possible.

Sanchez writes that the 6’2″ Olivera is in the best shape of his career and has “wowed” in open showcases and private workouts, leading many to believe he could hit 15 to 20 homers annually.

Were Olivera younger, I’d be more inclined to believe that he could command something in the vicinity of the Tomas and Castillo deals, but I personally can’t envision that for a player of his age. Tomas will be younger than Olivera is right now when his six-year contract expires, and Castillo’s deal runs through just his age-32 season. A six-year pact for Olivera would carry through his age-35 campaign, so despite having seemingly impressive power for a second baseman (he can also play third), those goals seem far-fetched.

Lin notes that the Padres also have some interest in Olivera and may turn their sights his way if they’re unable to land Moncada. Padres pro scouting director/senior adviser Logan White attended Olivera’s final showcase in the Dominican Republic last week, per Lin.

Though Olivera isn’t yet cleared to sign, Sanchez hears that he could sign within 24 hours of being declared a free agent. The Mariners, Braves and Dodgers are the most likely landing spots for Olivera, per Sanchez, who also lists the Yankees and Padres as interested clubs. Clearly, Seattle is an odd fit, given the presence of Robinson Cano and the recently extended Kyle Seager. Perhaps, however, the Mariners would have interest in using Olivera in a corner outfield spot or in some form of super utility capacity.

Yadier Alvarez

One high-ranking NL official told Sanchez that Alvarez was the best 18-year-old pitcher he’s ever seen following a showcase in which he touched 98 mph on the radar gun and also showed a plus slider and above-average changeup. Scouts to whom Sanchez has spoke believe he could eventually become a No. 2 starter. One international scouting director also told Sanchez that given Alvarez’s age and lower asking price, he prefers the right-hander to Moncada.

The Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies, Nationals, Blue Jays, Padres, A’s, Cardinals, Twins and Brewers are all interested, per Sanchez, with the D-Backs and Nationals as the likeliest destinations at the moment. However, Alvarez is still early on in the process, so those seem the most likely to change of any of Sanchez’s likely destinations.

Andy Ibanez

Ibanez, 21, has drawn comps to Omar Infante, Howie Kendrick, Miguel Cairo and Placido Polanco from scouts, Sanchez writes, although he’s probably a couple of years away from contributing in the Majors. As other reports have indicated, Ibanez’s tools don’t blow scouts away, but he does have Major League potential. Sanchez lists the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, D-Backs, Brewers, Mariners, and Padres as interested parties, with the Yankees, Dodgers and Padres as the likeliest landing spots.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Newsstand San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners Washington Nationals Andy Ibanez Hector Olivera Yadier Alvarez Yoan Moncada

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Latest On Red Sox, Cole Hamels

By Steve Adams | February 16, 2015 at 11:04am CDT

Over the weekend, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote that the Red Sox were one of the previously unnamed teams to have made a “real” offer (to use Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr.’s term) for Cole Hamels, though Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes that there’s nothing close between the two sides.

The Red Sox have made the Phillies aware of the parameters of what they’re willing to part with in order to acquire Hamels, a source tells Bradford. Per Cafardo’s weekend writing, the most recent offer consisted largely of Major League assets rather than the elite prospects that the Phillies are known to be seeking (specifically, Philadelphia is said to have its eye on top catching prospect Blake Swihart).

It’s unclear exactly what the Sox have expressed comfort in trading, though two completely speculative names with big league experience that could appeal to the rebuilding Phillies would be Jackie Bradley Jr. and Christian Vazquez. (Though I’d assume any package including those names would also contain further minor league talent.) The Sox have a notable outfield surplus, and Ryan Hanigan’s excellent glove could bridge the gap from Opening Day to Swihart’s Major League debut. It stands to reason that Boston hasn’t mentioned the name Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts in those talks, as either would figure to grab Amaro’s attention immediately.

Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com agrees that Betts’ name likely hasn’t been mentioned, as he feels the inclusion of Betts would likely persuade the Phils to accept a deal. In Mastrodonato’s eyes, the Red Sox have been wise to exercise patience in regards to Hamels, as he could be one of a number of possible front-line starters available this summer. Beyond Hamels, names like Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, David Price, Jordan Zimmermann and Zack Greinke could be available this summer (the latter three pitch for likely contenders, though injuries routinely lead to unexpected deadline sellers), and the cost of acquiring a big-ticket rotation upgrade could decline by July.

As Mastrodonato points out, Hamels’ remaining $96MM commitment — which would very likely jump to $110MM, as Hamels could ask that his fifth-year vesting option be guaranteed as compensation for waiving his no-trade clause — is something Boston would have had to plan around adding, and there’s no indication that’s the case at this point. Indeed, general manager Ben Cherington again said today that he’s not expecting a roster addition before pitchers and catchers reports, tweets the Globe’s Peter Abraham.

One item worth noting on Hamels’ contract would be that guaranteeing his 2019 option, an acquiring team would actually lessen the luxury tax hit it would be taking on. Luxury tax is calculated by average annual value of a contract, and the deal’s AAV would actually drop, as guaranteeing the $20MM option is essentially adding one year and $14MM to the deal, as $6MM of that year’s value is already guaranteed in the form of a buyout.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels

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NL East Notes: Roark, Phillies, Reynolds, Mets

By Steve Adams | February 16, 2015 at 9:55am CDT

The Nationals’ signing of Max Scherzer dropped righty Tanner Roark — one of the most effective starters in baseball in 2014 — to the bullpen, and Mark Zuckerman of CSNWashington.com examines what the best role for Roark is in 2015. As Zuckerman notes, Roark ranks sixth or better in ERA, WHIP and opponents’ OPS dating back to Aug. 7, 2013, when he made his big league debut. One could make a case, therefore, that he is deserving of a high-leverage spot in what will be a new-look Nationals bullpen, but reducing him to a one-inning role complicates matters if he needs to be stretched out due to an injury to another starter. However, if he’s used in a long relief role, that will limit his usage, particularly given how strong the starting five project to be. The way in which Roark will be deployed figures to be a fascinating storyline for Nats fans, and I should note that there could be longer-reaching ramifications. Pitching in a high-leverage setup role for a year would likely be better for Roark’s first arbitration case as opposed to being used as a long man; accumulating holds and possibly the occasional save would likely be better for his financial future than pitching in blowout games, as many long relievers end up doing. Of course, Roark isn’t arb-eligible until the 2016-17 offseason, so he should still have another season of starting duty to add to his first arbitration platform.

Some more NL East items as Spring Training games draw near…

  • Previous reports have indicated that the Phillies may add veteran depth at shortstop and catcher during Spring Training, but MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki clarifies that the team will only make a move if it is first determined that younger options such as Freddy Galvis and Cameron Rupp aren’t able to fill those roles. Non-roster alternatives are in place at each position, such as Andres Blanco and Chase d’Arnaud at short and Koyie Hill and John Hester behind the dish. However, none of those players has much of a big league track record.
  • Matt Reynolds feels comfortable at shortstop and tells Kevin Kernan of the New York Post that he thinks he can help the team at the position in 2015. Kernan notes that Mets’ officials consistently praise Reynolds’ focus and determination, and the .343/.405/.454 batting line he compiled between Double-A and Triple-A in 2014 doesn’t do anything to hurt his chances, of course. Reynolds says he is close with Wilmer Flores and hopes to see Flores succeed, adding that the situation “will play itself out.” Reynolds also spoke glowingly of the benefit he’s received from David Wright’s down-to-Earth nature and willingness to share his wisdom as he’s risen through the ranks. Flores is expected to open the season at shortstop for the Mets, but Reynolds could challenge for time if Flores struggles.
  • The lofty goals publicly expressed by several members of the Mets organization could have harsh ramifications among the fan base should the team struggle, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News. Matt Harvey is the latest to join the big talk — telling reporters over the weekend (in unprompted fashion) that it was “very realistic” that the team could find itself in the World Series. That the Mets’ offseason has been largely uneventful aside from the addition of Michael Cuddyer is a well-documented fact, and I’d imagine the quiet offseason could expedite a negative reaction to stated expectations should the team struggle in the early-going.
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New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals Matt Reynolds

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Orioles Notes: Showalter, De Aza, Roster Decisions

By Steve Adams | February 16, 2015 at 8:10am CDT

Determining a manager’s value to the on-field success of a team is anything but a quantifiable science, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com points out one easily identifiable advantage that Buck Showalter has given the Orioles. Showalter, since day one, has “demanded” that his pitchers control the running game by learning to hold runners and quickening their time to home plate in order to give the team’s catchers a chance. “When Buck came I focused on it,” Chris Tillman told Kubatko. “Before I didn’t really pay all that much attention to it. … But once he put the video in front of us and the stats in front of us about runners advancing another 90 feet, as a pitcher that’s everything.” Tillman is perhaps the most extreme example of success in Showalter’s mandate; he’s allowed just two steals in 13 attempts over the past two seasons.

A bit more from Kubatko and more on the Orioles in general…

  • If the Orioles are going to add another utility infield option or another relief arm to their Major League Spring Training camp, it’s got to happen within the next few days, Kubatko points out. GM Dan Duquette listed both as items on his wish list on Jan. 31, and pitchers and catchers will report for the Orioles on Thursday of this week.
  • The Orioles and Alejandro De Aza seem destined for an arbitration hearing, but there’s little risk for either side in this scenario, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. As Encina notes, the $650K gap — a similar gap to the one that separated the O’s and Ryan Flaherty — means less to De Aza than it would to a player like Flaherty, who had filed at $1.6MM (De Aza filed at $5.65MM to the team’s $5MM). As for the Orioles, they can take some solace in knowing that they’re 9-1 over their past 10 arb hearings under owner Peter Angelos, including 7-0 since hiring general counsel H. Russell Smouse to lead their arbitration proceedings. Encina also writes that in today’s game, players are more used to seeing criticism and having their flaws highlighted — likely referring to the rise of web content and players’ accessibility to potentially negative reports on their game — so there’s lesser risk that a player hearing about his negative traits will be affected in terms of on-field performance.
  • Also over at MASNsports.com, Steve Melweski takes a look at Baltimore’s roster questions heading into Spring Training. Though Ubaldo Jimenez can’t be simply handed a rotation spot due to his salary, that salary also means he cannot be written off entirely and does need a fair chance at the rotation. Melewski also opines that J.P. Arencibia and Ryan Lavarnway were brought in for more than the opportunity to compete for the backup job; either could break camp with the team in a larger role, in the event that Matt Wieters needs to open the season on the disabled list. Of Baltimore’s two injured stars, Melewski notes that Manny Machado is more likely to be ready for the opener than Wieters.
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Baltimore Orioles Alejandro De Aza

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Quick Hits: Cubans, Padres, Scott, Dirks, Gaudin

By Steve Adams | February 15, 2015 at 10:38pm CDT

Three more Cuban players — first baseman Lazaro Alonso, infielder/outfielder Osniel Madera, and catcher Yoel Rojas — have left the country, reports Baseball America’s Ben Badler. The 19-year-old Alonso and the 29-year-old Madera should draw interest from MLB teams, according to Badler. Alonso was hitting .299/.436/.494 in 110 plate appearances with more walks (20) than strikeouts (19) at the time he defected. Madera has played both corner outfield positions as well as third base and second base in his career, and he was hitting .319/.390/.469 in 187 PA this season.

Some more notes from around the league…

  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post looks at the Padres’ offseason and wonders if the team has added star power while sacrificing the cohesion that is typically necessary to for a roster to succeed. Though the team has right-handed power in spades, the Padres lean far too much to the right, with only two left-handed bats projected in their lineup, neither of whom brings much with the bat (Alexi Amarista and Yonder Alonso). The team also lacks a logical lead-off hitter and will field not just a questionable outfield defense but also take a significant step back in pitch-framing, going from a combo of Yasmani Grandal and Rene Rivera to Derek Norris and a yet-undetermined backup. So much focus has been placed on San Diego’s remade offense, Sherman writes, that few have pointed out the fact that the Padres also allowed their fewest runs ever in 2014 — a feat that won’t likely repeat given the factors laid out here.
  • Designated hitter/outfielder Luke Scott worked out for clubs in southern California last week, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweeted. The former Orioles/Astros/Rays slugger spent some time in the Korea Baseball Organization last year and enjoyed success in 130 plate appearances, hitting .267/.392/.505. Scott, 36, is a career .258/.340/.481 hitter and is eyeing a return to the Majors. While a minor league deal is almost certainly all that would be in the cards at this stage, he’s always shown respectable power and could be a reasonable add for a team looking for some left-handed pop off the bench.
  • Outfielder Andy Dirks, who signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays this offseason, will report to the team’s minor league Spring Training camp instead of Major League camp, writes Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi (the Dirks note gets a brief mention at the bottom of the story). Dirks, who missed all of 2014 recovering from back surgery, is still rehabbing and has again been delayed in his recovery. A healthy Dirks could be a nice addition to the Toronto bench, as he’s an able defender in left field and a lifetime .276/.332/.413 hitter.
  • In similar fashion, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic notes at the end of an article on Addison Reed that the D-Backs watched right-hander Chad Gaudin throw a bullpen session last week. The 31-year-old Gaudin didn’t pitch in 2014 as he recovered from neck surgery, though the swingman has a career 4.44 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and a 42.4 percent ground-ball rate. Gaudin’s last big league action came with the 2013 Giants, and he pitched quite well, notching a 3.06 ERA (3.34 FIP, 4.00 xFIP) in 97 innings. He made a dozen starts and 18 relief appearances that season. GM Dave Stewart tells Piecoro that Gaudin is a consideration in the team’s search for pitching depth.
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Arizona Diamondbacks San Diego Padres Toronto Blue Jays Andy Dirks Chad Gaudin Luke Scott

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Potential Landing Spots For Chris Young

By Steve Adams | February 15, 2015 at 8:52pm CDT

One Chris Young has found a home this offseason, as the former D-Backs, A’s and Mets outfielder re-signed with the Yankees early in the winter. The other Chris Young, despite having enjoyed the better results of the two in 2014, remains available on the free agent market. The 6’10” right-hander soaked up 165 innings in the Mariners’ rotation last season, working to a 3.65 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. That’s solid production, and based on runs allowed (RA9-WAR), Young was worth 2.4 wins above replacement.

And yet, the towering righty remains unsigned, perhaps in part due to the fact that sabermetric estimators suggest that his success was exceptionally fortunate. Young’s 5.02 FIP, 5.19 xFIP and 5.24 SIERA paint an ugly picture, to be sure, but there are reasons to think that he can still provide value in a team’s rotation.

Firstly, we can’t ignore the fact that Young’s career ERA (3.77) is significantly better than his career FIP (4.38), xFIP (4.82) or SIERA (4.63). Being an extreme fly-ball pitcher is likely a turn-off for teams in small parks, but because he allows so many fly balls (58.7 percent in 2014; 54.8 percent for his career), Young has proven capable of sustaining a BABIP that is considerably lower than the league average (fly balls in play fall for hits at a much lower rate than line drives and ground balls). Extreme fly-ball arms like Young have proven to be able to outperform those figures because a larger percentage of balls in play against them are converted into outs. Repeating a 3.65 ERA may not be likely, but it stands to reason that Young could demonstrate at least somewhat useful run prevention skills at the back of a rotation.

Young has also shown a dominance over right-handed hitters throughout his career, and particularly in 2014. Same-handed hitters have mustered a paltry .218/.287/.381 batting line against Young in his big league career, and he held them to an even feebler .199/.260/.372 line last year. On the flipside of that is that he struggles against left-handed hitters, of course, but a team with a spacious outfield that naturally suppresses lefty power could use its home environment to maximize Young’s strengths while shielding against his weaknesses.

The cost on Young shouldn’t be prohibitive; I’d imagine that if he is able to secure an MLB deal, the base salary would fall shy of the respective $5MM and $6.5MM guarantees of Aaron Harang and Kyle Kendrick. And, there’s also the possibility that given the late stage of the offseason and the number of teams with their rotations filled, Young will have to settle for a minor league deal. Any non-guaranteed deal would figure to have a relatively substantial base salary in the event that Young made the team. (John Axford, for example has a $2.65MM base on his minor league deal in Colorado.)

Given all of these elements, let’s examine a few spots that make sense for the Reynolds Sports Management client to end up…

  • Angels: The Halos have addressed their pitching depth this winter by adding prospects Andrew Heaney and Nick Tropeano in separate trades, but the rotation still doesn’t have a clear-cut No. 5 starter. It’s also not a given that Garrett Richards will be ready for Opening Day, so adding a veteran like Young makes some degree of sense. Angel Stadium ranked 25th in left-handed home run factor in 2014 (per Baseball Prospectus) and routinely ranks in the bottom third of the league.
  • Tigers: Detroit’s rotation depth has taken a hit in recent years due to several trades, and they have little in the way of certainty beyond their projected starting five (David Price, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon). Even Greene and Simon have some uncertainty about them, as Greene has little MLB experience, and Simon wilted in the second half of what could be an outlier season. Comerica Park ranked 23rd in left-handed HR factor last year, though it has played as more of a middle-of-the-road park for lefties in other seasons.
  • Braves: Atlanta hasn’t been shy about adding veterans to slot into the bullpen or the rotation, having added the likes of Eric Stults, Wandy Rodriguez, Jose Veras, Matt Capps and Todd Coffey on minor league deals recently. Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Alex Wood and Shelby Miller are locks, but the fifth spot is up for grabs.
  • Astros: Houston recently added Roberto Hernandez to a minor league deal with the idea that he could compete for a spot in their rotation, and Young could be brought in to compete in a similar manner. Righty Brad Peacock may not be ready to open the season, and Houston did part with Michael Foltynewicz in the Evan Gattis trade (though the team also added rotation candidate Dan Straily in the Dexter Fowler deal with the Cubs).
  • Rays: Matt Moore won’t pitch until this summer as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, leaving Nate Karns and Alex Colome as the likely candidates to compete for the fifth spot behind Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi and Chris Archer. The AL East and its hitter-friendly parks may not be an ideal setting for Young, but Tropicana Field is more favorable to pitchers than rival parks such as Yankees Stadium and Rogers Centre.

Few teams possess the type of pitching depth that would allow them to completely rule out adding a depth candidate to compete for a role at the back of the rotation. One could make a compelling case for Young fitting with any number of teams not listed here, and it’s also possible that a Spring Training injury could create a need for an arm like his. At 36 years of age and with a limited MLB track record in recent years, Young isn’t a big-ticket item, but 165 innings of 3.65 ERA in 2014 should at the very least net him the opportunity to try to prove that he can recreate the feat.

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